Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Malcador]

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And you are again forgetting, that here are a lot of people who lived in Soviet Occupied territories for more than a decade, who experienced more than a ****load of these so called "terrible crimes against the west" perpetrated by Soviets/Russians first hand... especially people like bugarup, who lives in Baltics...

That's not much to do with people getting angry at India for not falling into line, though.

6 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21

Ah, ISW

One thing I did read was the mercenaries and DPR/LNR forces being used as it's less risky domestically to have them wasted. Does make some degree of sense, is stereo-typically cold hearted The latter is probably better quality than RF regular, I guess, just from being in a warzone longer.  

Chatter about Zolote at risk.  This reporter is Canadian, is a bit of a pessimist but perhaps spent too much time in a warzone.

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

I love the way some of the international  media anchors frame certain things as newsworthy when sometimes its obvious 

On CNN now someone said " Putin slams sanctions at BRICS " !!! 

What !!! You mean Putin doesnt support the sanctions against Russia....I never would have guessed that 

 

[Zoraptor]

14 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

A state of siege was proclaimed in Stalingrad on 25 August 1942. The 10th NKVD Rifle Division organized "destroyer battallions" that were sent into action against the 16th Panzer Division. Behind the destroyer battallions were Komsomol groups with automatic weapons positioned to stop any retreat. This is one of the historical examples I'm referring to.

It's just about the only historical example you can refer to, which is kind of the point given what I was initially replying to (below).

On 6/22/2022 at 7:27 AM, xzar_monty said:

Interestingly, in August 1942, Russia (the Soviet Union) had two "lines" on the front. The first was there to attack the Germans, and the second was there to shoot at anyone from the first line who wanted to escape the fighting. Apparently, they're still using this strategy in Ukraine. Russia stands out as the country who have no qualms whatsoever about killing their own.

Even if we take 'the front' to mean Stalingrad Front instead of more generally there were ~30 divisions (converting Brigades into divs) assigned there, excluding formations added for Uranus, not just an NKVD division.

11 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Gary Johnson called.

He wants to know what "Ukraine" is

"My crane? But I don't own a crane"

Not sure what the 2022 equivalent of asking about Ukraine immediately after a question about Ralph Nader is though.

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

One thing I did read was the mercenaries and DPR/LNR forces being used as it's less risky domestically to have them wasted. Does make some degree of sense, is stereo-typically cold hearted The latter is probably better quality than RF regular, I guess, just from being in a warzone longer. 

That's definitely why they're used. Same general reason why you had Golden Division and YPG fighting ISIS in Mosul and Raqqa rather than US regulars- nobody important cares if they get killed. Same reason the Russians were looking at bringing in Syrians too (as well as them being cheaper to pay).

Supposedly Ukraine has withdrawn from Zolote and Hirske now, though given the situation how orderly it can have been is an open question.

[xzar_monty]

14 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Damn, I really got to give massive kudos to Lithuania. Their railroad action against Russia has the whiney crybabies in Moscow going bat-crap crazy! They're literally losing their minds, because tiny Lithuania has come up with a completely legal under international law way to REALLY stick it to the Russians, and there's precious little Russia can do about it short of invading NATO territory. Every argument the Russians raise about how "wrong" this is can be turned right back around on them! Lavrov, Peskov and co. are so apoplectic its side-splittingly hilarious. I'm keeping my fingers crossed it pushes Palputin's ticker over the line. Man, Lithuania is ****ing brilliant!!

The Baltic nations in general have been wonderful, but I agree that Lithuania is being superb. For anyone wondering why this may be: THEY KNOW. And they don't want it back after 30 years of something else.

@Zoraptor: I absolutely may have used the term "front" wrong. Military matters are not my strongest point.

[Malcador]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The Baltic nations in general have been wonderful, but I agree that Lithuania is being superb. For anyone wondering why this may be: THEY KNOW. And they don't want it back after 30 years of something else.

Well, can be pretty certain it's not coming back - they are in NATO, no?

I think the impact of these 7 is a bit overstated.

 

[kanisatha]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Well, can be pretty certain it's not coming back - they are in NATO, no?

I think the impact of these 7 is a bit overstated.

 

Well, yes, but they're just the first batch. And other countries have now also said they too will send HiMARS. And HiMARS is an awesome system for the Ukrainians for this one reason. The one thing that is truly hurting the UA badly right now is that the Russians are relentlessly and indiscriminately bombarding UA positions with massive amounts of artillery, which the UA cannot get at as they're out of reach. With HiMARS, not only do those Russian artillery systems come with reach, one HiMARS has the potential to wipe out an entire battery of artillery guns, and possibly even more, in counter-battery fire mode.

[Malcador]

41 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Well, yes, but they're just the first batch. And other countries have now also said they too will send HiMARS. And HiMARS is an awesome system for the Ukrainians for this one reason. The one thing that is truly hurting the UA badly right now is that the Russians are relentlessly and indiscriminately bombarding UA positions with massive amounts of artillery, which the UA cannot get at as they're out of reach. With HiMARS, not only do those Russian artillery systems come with reach, one HiMARS has the potential to wipe out an entire battery of artillery guns, and possibly even more, in counter-battery fire mode.

Actually seems it's 4 now, not 7 as of yet.  Guess they will be priority targets for the RF as well, will be interesting to see how it goes

[kanisatha]

59 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Actually seems it's 4 now, not 7 as of yet.  Guess they will be priority targets for the RF as well, will be interesting to see how it goes

Yeah, four is a single battery (NATO standard). And yes the Russians will be prioritizing them for targeting as well. Good thing they're extremely mobile, which is HiM- part of their abbreviation. 'Shoot and scoot' is how you are supposed to use them.

Edited June 23, 2022 by kanisatha

[xzar_monty]

Fairly large blackout in Siberia due to a fire at a power plant, and then this gas explosion elsewhere. I'd love to know how many mysterious explosions and fires Russia tends to have during "ordinary" times and how much their number has increased since the beginning of the war. Looking at this kind of stuff from northern Europe, Russia looks very peculiar, even if it is a huge country. (Like, are fires and explosions in Russia like mass shootings in the US, i.e. every day or every other day?)

Nice bang by the way.

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Yeah, four is a single battery (NATO standard). And yes the Russians will be prioritizing them for targeting as well. Good thing they're extremely mobile, which is HiM- part of their abbreviation. 'Shoot and scoot' is how you are supposed to use them.

Yeah.  Wish the media would stop talking to people as if these will devastate the entire RF, though.  As of today though it's just doomposting about Severodonestk and however many troops were caught in Zolote.

Today a cell phone tower caught fire here, I suspect Spetsnaz.

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Malcador

[kanisatha]

Russia's artillery war in the Donbas:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/russian-tactics-artillery-ukraine/

[Darkpriest]

Seems eco-sustainability is dead in EU. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EU-Is-Buying-More-South-African-Coal-Than-Ever.html

 

+ more issues around Kaliningrad

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-710081

[xzar_monty]

No it's not. If something is dead, it will never come back. Temporary setbacks, even serious ones, are a reality, but speaking of dead is not good rhetoric.

[Elerond]

Eco-sustainability is for first time possibility in EU as natural gas is not anymore considered as 'eco' option

[Chilloutman]

hopefully it means 'Lexx uber race' finally kicks in those nukes back up

[Lexx]

As far as I understood, that's not possible. All current plants need maintenance and that will take years of work.

[Chilloutman]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

As far as I understood, that's not possible. All current plants need maintenance and that will take years of work.

well all alternatives will take years of work as well. Or what is the plan over there?

[Lexx]

No clue, I'm really not that deep into it. Latest talk is that all coal power plants will keep working / get activated again. Part of me wonders about how happy all the old coal execs are right now. Their beloved coal will work again.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Lexx

[Elerond]

What I have understood, situation with Germany's nuclear power plants is such that it is cheaper and faster build new ones than trying to repair current ones back in use.

This is because many of them have old and in efficient reactors meaning that new ones will outperform them and there is need for new ones in decade or two max anyway

Many reactors have suffered from cannibalization where parts from already closed reactor has been used to maintain still running reactors.

Also in many cases heat from reactor cooling has not been used for district heating or otherwise utilized. Which means that massive amount of energy those plants produced was not utilized. And means that Germany would still need lots of energy from other source in which they currently have two options natural gas and coal. 

In case of future there are some needs that needs to be addressed at least

Adjustment power: Renewable energy sources like wind and solar don't have solid production rates, but produce some days more and some days less energy, so there is needs to be way to adjust how much electricity is put in electric grid.

Ways to do that is constant over production where wind and solar plants always produce more than needed and over production is just wasted.

Storing over production: in batteries or some other form of energy storage, which can used as energy source in day when there is underproduction

Adjustment power plants (current solution where there are power plants which production levels can be easily controlled based on how much fuel is used)

Heating and cooling: In big cities there is usually need for district heating solutions and as there is already existing district heating solutions where waste energy from power plants is used to warm houses in the cities there is need to replace them. 

One solution could be use massive ground-source heat pumps to turn electricity to heat efficiently and feed it in current district heating systems. An other solution could be build small modular nuclear rectors that are only meant to produce heat in district heating systems.

And of course there is also transportation that brings its own issues

[Malcador]

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 6/22/2022 at 3:41 PM, Malcador said:

That's not much to do with people getting angry at India for not falling into line, though.

Ah, ISW

One thing I did read was the mercenaries and DPR/LNR forces being used as it's less risky domestically to have them wasted. Does make some degree of sense, is stereo-typically cold hearted The latter is probably better quality than RF regular, I guess, just from being in a warzone longer.  

Chatter about Zolote at risk.  This reporter is Canadian, is a bit of a pessimist but perhaps spent too much time in a warzone.

 

Here you have an analysis about the situation with DNR/LNR forces. (They are not mercenaries) Few days ago also the leader of LNR has released the statement, that half of their pre-war army is gone.

 

[kanisatha]

Today's interesting read:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/the-ukraine-war-is-bleeding-russia-dry/

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Today's interesting read:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/the-ukraine-war-is-bleeding-russia-dry/

Great link and it raises some pertinent points like who will pay for the rebuilding of occupied and destroyed regions of eastern Ukraine? Russia will continue to become indebted to China if its going to do this and since they destroyed cities like Mariupol they  would have to carry the cost. Its not going to be Western aid under illegitimate  Russian occupation and self-proclaimed " independence " ?

If the UN doesnt recognize it you will battle to get the funding and reconstruction aid 

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Great link and it raises some pertinent points like who will pay for the rebuilding of occupied and destroyed regions of eastern Ukraine? Russia will continue to become indebted to China if its going to do this and since they destroyed cities like Mariupol they  would have to carry the cost. Its not going to be Western aid under illegitimate  Russian occupation and self-proclaimed " independence " ?

If the UN doesnt recognize it you will battle to get the funding and reconstruction aid 

You should no longer wonder, who is gonna pay for it.

Common Russian people are already paying for it:

https://hnonline-sk.translate.goog/svet/96026989-ani-pocas-druhej-svetovej-vojny-sa-ludia-nepytali-na-vyplatu-odkazal-sef-strajkujucim-v-rusku?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Darkpriest]

This might be another aspect of when the support will end. With the economic crisis countries might have issues restocking what they have sent to UA and UA might run out of 'ammo' sooner than russians

https://rmx.news/czech-republic/czechia-has-exhausted-its-arms-reserves-supporting-ukraine-czech-pm-reveals/

 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare

 

NOTE: I cannot verify for any of the sources, byt the perspective is worth to consider and evaluate in terms of risks and options

Edited June 26, 2022 by Darkpriest