Ukraine Conflict - Alle Dinge unterliegen Interpretation je nachdem, was Interpretation zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt herrscht, ist eine Funktion der Macht und nicht die Wahrheit

[kanisatha]

Well Biden has sent to Congress a request for $33 billion for Ukraine. I doubt budget hawks in Congress will go for it, but Ukraine will, over time, get quite a lot of US aid. This is because in the US now there is consensus across the two parties (not seen since the early '80s) that this war offers a great opportunity to take down Russia as a geopolitical "problem" for the US in anticipation of the coming long-term geopolitical struggle against China.

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, rjshae said:

That artillery battle hasn't been all one-sided, and the Ukrainian side is growing increasingly deadly with Western aid.

U.S. HIMARS Rocket Artillery Going To Ukraine Would Be A Game Changer

Pretty sure that transfer is not happening if only due to escalation potential.
Someone angry over Kharkov could demolish Kursk with that.  

Shorter range rocket launchers are already being provided to Ukraine anyway. 

[rjshae]

2 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Well Biden has sent to Congress a request for $33 billion for Ukraine. I doubt budget hawks in Congress will go for it, but Ukraine will, over time, get quite a lot of US aid. This is because in the US now there is consensus across the two parties (not seen since the early '80s) that this war offers a great opportunity to take down Russia as a geopolitical "problem" for the US in anticipation of the coming long-term geopolitical struggle against China.

The US military budget is $813 billion, so at the moment this is just a minor (4%) budget surge. It's costing Russia a lot more to maintain this offensive.

[Malcador]

10 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

I would not call it a lot of money for free, and I bet it would not be for free, but well, I can tell you what happened in Eastern Europe after the fall of Iron Curtain, all of the ex soldiers and martial arts athletes started their own Mafia style organizations, because no one cared enough to intervene. A lot of people died, and only now are some of these **** getting jailed, when people started to care... I think it happens also in western countries, if they do not have good quality social integration programs for veterans. They might get swayed onto the easy money path, because they feel everybody ****ed them over after they risked their lives for them

Interesting, guess we'll see. Hopefully if worst comes to worst the Stingers expire beforehand.

[BruceVC]

41 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I think the defense is not that they're brown, is that the "situation is complex".  Really is just not getting saturated with media on it, I think.

No thats not the main reason for a perceived lack of interest in Yemen. Are you genuinely interested in this conflict because we can discuss it ? As far as I can recall no one has ever made a thread about this war on this forum and that tells me its a conflict most people are not  particularly interested in 

 

[Malcador]

6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

No thats not the main reason for a perceived lack of interest in Yemen. Are you genuinely interested in this conflict because we can discuss it ? As far as I can recall no one has ever made a thread about this war on this forum and that tells me its a conflict most people are not  particularly interested in 

 

Well what's the reason, then ? At least here, is fairly easy to not be interested in something you never see reported - why it's not reported, well, that's another question.  Maybe is tied to the intensity of the fighting, etc ?   But among the people I have seen or heard that are aware of it, the "it's complex" excuse is brought out a good bit, I guess people in complicated situations need to suck on it and die  

As for making a thread on it, I think there has been some posts on it here.

[Mamoulian War]

27 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Pretty sure that transfer is not happening if only due to escalation potential.
Someone angry over Kharkov could demolish Kursk with that.  

Shorter range rocket launchers are already being provided to Ukraine anyway. 

Johnson and probably few more politicians in the West has already announced, that it is OK to use their weapons against targets in Russia. There rumours of HIMARS being in Ukraine started to circulate around 15th April, but no "credible" source has confirmed this yet. So it is either top secret, or the people are again talking out of their asses... I see it as a 10-90 chance

39 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yup. A US defense official said this same thing today, that Russia's goals now are to annex Donetsk and Luhansk outright, and create a puppet statelet called "New Russia" in Kherson. And May 9 may be when all of this gets publicly announced. Then, once those territories are annexed, Russia plans to officially declare war on Ukraine by claiming it is Ukraine that is occupying and threatening Russian territory.

Hmm, I am really curious, how they want to manage all this new territory. They are already lacking the manpower to do proper fights, and according to our local analysts, Russia lost so many of the most elite forces of the Russian Army, that they are ****ed for generations, and the young Russians just do not want to join the mandatory conscription... Also there is one more thing almost no one is speaking about. A lot of fighters joined the Ukraine war from the easternmost ethnically non-russian parts of the Russia (in much bigger numbers than the ethnic Russians) and now, that the "boys" are getting back in caskets, there is growing a discontent at these regions. And last time, when some discontent grew to high, Chechnya happened. But at that time, the Russian army was at their highest. Not as crippled as they are today... And the other thing is, that some of the ex-soviet republics are starting to sense a weakness, and they might help with the rise of discontent here and there, just to get as far away from Russian influence as possible. The latest notable news from this area, is that Russia asked directly these countries to help them evade the sanctions. And Kazakhstan denied that option immediately.

Anyway, here is google translate of the interview with our war/security analytic, about how much has Putin and his generals ****ed the Russian army in the last two months...
https://brainee-hnonline-sk.translate.goog/spolocnost/svet/25239941-rusko-zmrzacilo-armadu-na-generacie-dopredu-prislo-o-elitne-sily-tvrdi-vojensky-analytik?_x_tr_sl=sk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

1 minute ago, Malcador said:

Well what's the reason, then ? At least here, is fairly easy to not be interested in something you never see reported - why it's not reported, well, that's another question.  Maybe is tied to the intensity of the fighting, etc ?   But among the people I have seen or heard that are aware of it, the "it's complex" excuse is brought out a good bit, I guess people in complicated situations need to suck on it and die  

As for making a thread on it, I think there has been some posts on it here.

Saying that it is complex is probably the reason, that the people do not understand a lot about that conflict, and it is just because the Western Media completely ignore it... You cannot get a qualified opinion, when the sources are missing... In Slovakia, media do not care, because like 99% of our population, have no clue where Yemen lies, and it does not bring them any clicks, not even the fact, that our corrupt ex-government, which has been under the microscope of our media in the last 12 years, were allegedly illegally selling weapons to Saudi Arabia for use in this conflict, had sparked any interest in the media. It was just to away for the people to care... That is the same as with Uyghurs or Tibet... To far away to care to cancel Disney + or Alibaba account... And instead of trying to bring a little bit more awareness to the issue, so the people start to care little bit more, they just simply abandoned it... And I bet this is the same in most of the other countries... Chasing clicks is now for media much more important, that to bring the awareness to the masses... And the Russian trolls are taking advantage of this big time for years...

[rjshae]

7 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Johnson and probably few more politicians in the West has already announced, that it is OK to use their weapons against targets in Russia. There rumours of HIMARS being in Ukraine started to circulate around 15th April, but no "credible" source has confirmed this yet. So it is either top secret, or the people are again talking out of their asses... I see it as a 10-90 chance

Yes, exactly. The goal is to make it too painful for Russia to continue their invasion. Why should we handicap Ukraine when Russia is bombing their cities into rubble?

[kanisatha]

3 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Yes, exactly. The goal is to make it too painful for Russia to continue their invasion. Why should we handicap Ukraine when Russia is bombing their cities into rubble?

Yes indeed. Johnson's declaration that the UK considers it acceptable for Ukraine to strike inside Russia is a huge deal. I am hopeful Biden will be making a similar declarion soon. Even after Russia annexes Ukrainian territory and declares that Ukraine and the West must accept this "new geopolitical reality" (Lavrov's recent words), Ukraine has the right to continue to fight, and we in the West should continue to help them. And in that fight, Ukraine will have to strike inside Russia, because Russia's strategy is going to be to set up artillery and rocket launchers inside the Russian side of the border from where they fire at Ukrainian forces attempting to take back Russian controlled territory while insisting the Ukrainians cannot target those Russian weapons inside the Russian side of the border (and threatening nuclear escalation if such attacks happen).

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

The rebuilding that will follow can make lots of people rich. Not necessarily us.. but you know, someone sure will fill their pockets.

Ukraine is a resource-rich country, so I expect there will be rebuilding efforts. It's not in the same boat as, say, Syria.

[kanisatha]

19 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Johnson and probably few more politicians in the West has already announced, that it is OK to use their weapons against targets in Russia. There rumours of HIMARS being in Ukraine started to circulate around 15th April, but no "credible" source has confirmed this yet. So it is either top secret, or the people are again talking out of their asses... I see it as a 10-90 chance

Hmm, I am really curious, how they want to manage all this new territory. They are already lacking the manpower to do proper fights, and according to our local analysts, Russia lost so many of the most elite forces of the Russian Army, that they are ****ed for generations, and the young Russians just do not want to join the mandatory conscription... Also there is one more thing almost no one is speaking about. A lot of fighters joined the Ukraine war from the easternmost ethnically non-russian parts of the Russia (in much bigger numbers than the ethnic Russians) and now, that the "boys" are getting back in caskets, there is growing a discontent at these regions. And last time, when some discontent grew to high, Chechnya happened. But at that time, the Russian army was at their highest. Not as crippled as they are today... And the other thing is, that some of the ex-soviet republics are starting to sense a weakness, and they might help with the rise of discontent here and there, just to get as far away from Russian influence as possible. The latest notable news from this area, is that Russia asked directly these countries to help them evade the sanctions. And Kazakhstan denied that option immediately.

Anyway, here is google translate of the interview with our war/security analytic, about how much has Putin and his generals ****ed the Russian army in the last two months...
https://brainee-hnonline-sk.translate.goog/spolocnost/svet/25239941-rusko-zmrzacilo-armadu-na-generacie-dopredu-prislo-o-elitne-sily-tvrdi-vojensky-analytik?_x_tr_sl=sk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Saying that it is complex is probably the reason, that the people do not understand a lot about that conflict, and it is just because the Western Media completely ignore it... You cannot get a qualified opinion, when the sources are missing... In Slovakia, media do not care, because like 99% of our population, have no clue where Yemen lies, and it does not bring them any clicks, not even the fact, that our corrupt ex-government, which has been under the microscope of our media in the last 12 years, were allegedly illegally selling weapons to Saudi Arabia for use in this conflict, had sparked any interest in the media. It was just to away for the people to care... That is the same as with Uyghurs or Tibet... To far away to care to cancel Disney + or Alibaba account... And instead of trying to bring a little bit more awareness to the issue, so the people start to care little bit more, they just simply abandoned it... And I bet this is the same in most of the other countries... Chasing clicks is now for media much more important, that to bring the awareness to the masses... And the Russian trolls are taking advantage of this big time for years...

Well this is what Putin has come up with as his endgame. We've all been asking that big question: how does this all end? For Putin, his endgame options are all not very good. So this is what he sees as his best option: annex these territories, then claim that now that these territories are "Russian" any further Ukrainian attacks on these territories are "attacks on Russia," and Russia per its standing policy can and will use nuclear weapons if necessary to defend Russian territory (with the expectation that in such a game of nuclear blackmail the West will blink and back down, and demand that the Ukrainians back down as well, giving Russia its "win").

This is how I see things playing out starting with Putin's expected big announcement on May 9 where he will say that the nazi Ukrainians and the West/NATO have launched an unjustified war against Russia, where Russia is the victim, and Russia needs to now come together as a country (so mass mobilization) to defend itself against this attack from the West (like how it had to defend itself against an attack from the West by nazis 80 years ago).

[kanisatha]

54 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well what's the reason, then ? At least here, is fairly easy to not be interested in something you never see reported - why it's not reported, well, that's another question.  Maybe is tied to the intensity of the fighting, etc ?   But among the people I have seen or heard that are aware of it, the "it's complex" excuse is brought out a good bit, I guess people in complicated situations need to suck on it and die  

As for making a thread on it, I think there has been some posts on it here.

It's because in Yemen there are no major geopolitical interests at stake. It's very much a local situation. By contrast in Ukraine there are enormous geopolitical stakes, including especially the return to our world of Great Power War which we have not had since 1945, the longest streak in the Modern Era without a Great Power War.

[xzar_monty]

14 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

It's because in Yemen there are no major geopolitical interests at stake. It's very much a local situation. By contrast in Ukraine there are enormous geopolitical stakes, including especially the return to our world of Great Power War which we have not had since 1945, the longest streak in the Modern Era without a Great Power War.

Geopolitics is the main issue, yes. From that vantage point alone, the conflicts are worlds apart. As unfortunate as it is.

[xzar_monty]

1 hour ago, kanisatha said:

Nothing personal against you or any other Swede here but as an American I also don't want Sweden in NATO. Finland yes, Sweden no. I feel Sweden will be a pain in the ass within NATO much like France and Turkey, and furthermore I continue to take very strong offence at past anti-US Swedish actions. Just my personal feelings.

Interesting. How do you reckon the situation in Scandinavia / the Nordic countries being different in case A) Finland is in NATO but Sweden is not vs. B) both Finland and Sweden being in NATO? The prevailing view here the north appears to be that situation A is, to put it mildly, not ideal.

Sweden is a pain in the ass.

[Chilloutman]

I expect mobilization from Russia after 9th. I don't see any other options from them at this point (other than .. you know, stop invading)

[xzar_monty]

5 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

I expect mobilization from Russia after 9th. I don't see any other options from them at this point (other than .. you know, stop invading)

Your comment is extremely funny and tragic because it hits the nail on the head.

Russia appears to be running out of options because its strategy and its application has been so awful (while it has admittedly caused an awful lot of damage and carnage in Ukraine). So, it appears likely that it is going to escalate, because it has to.

Except that it could just stop. It could have chosen the option not to start in the first place. That was always there. The option to desist is still there. It's extremely simple.

But there's no chance of that being taken.

 

If memory serves, Italy attacked somewhere in North Africa sometime in the very early 20th century. It was an idiotic attack and led to an awful lot of Italian deaths. The result of this failure, however, was simply another attack, because so many resources had already been put in the first attack and it would have been simply too painful to admit that all the young soldiers died in vain. The second attack was also a disaster. But because of that very same reason, Italy still couldn't desist. So it attacked for a third time, with equally disastrous results. Only then was it able to stop. Damned if I can remember the details.

[Malcador]

59 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

It's because in Yemen there are no major geopolitical interests at stake. It's very much a local situation. By contrast in Ukraine there are enormous geopolitical stakes, including especially the return to our world of Great Power War which we have not had since 1945, the longest streak in the Modern Era without a Great Power War.

Yes, at a state level you need to be relevant for them to care. But was just talking at the level of lay people or media. 

If Russia were to "stop" though, what would that look like? They'd have to lose Crimea.  The British have said that is a war aim - although it is hilarious that they have "war aims".

Edited May 3, 2022 by Malcador

[Mamoulian War]

7 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Yes, at a state level you need to be relevant for them to care. But was just talking at the level of lay people or media. 

If Russia were to "stop" though, what would that look like? They'd have to lose Crimea.

Probably yes. But you never know... Still to much trouble for Russia could cause them much more than losing Crimea... If some people will consider them weak, it could bring havoc to whole Russia...

Edited May 3, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

40 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Except that it could just stop. It could have chosen the option not to start in the first place. That was always there. The option to desist is still there. It's extremely simple.

But there's no chance of that being taken.

Obviously it won't be taken, after all the sacrifices it would amount to a major defeat.
Returning to 2021 borders, admitting guilt and paying reparations would likely be minimal imposed conditions.
No way Putin (or his vision for Russia's future) could survive a humiliation like that.

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Well what's the reason, then ? At least here, is fairly easy to not be interested in something you never see reported - why it's not reported, well, that's another question.  Maybe is tied to the intensity of the fighting, etc ?   But among the people I have seen or heard that are aware of it, the "it's complex" excuse is brought out a good bit, I guess people in complicated situations need to suck on it and die  

As for making a thread on it, I think there has been some posts on it here.

Just to be clear so I dont make a  detailed post and its not what you asking

Are you asking why their is a perception that  prominent Western countries and the global media dont seem to care about Yemen, you not asking  why countries like SA, Kenya, Chile or NZ dont seem to care?

[213374U]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Yes, at a state level you need to be relevant for them to care. But was just talking at the level of lay people or media. 

If Russia were to "stop" though, what would that look like? They'd have to lose Crimea.

At least we have finally moved past the fake care for heroic Ukraine and started to openly admit that it's all about power politics. This also explains much better the 'fight to the last Ukrainian' stance because the goal is to take Russia down, not avoid a long and destructive war and the escalation risks it entails. Progress, of sorts.

Russia isn't going to stop because the whole point of the war is to compel Ukraine by cost imposition*. If the goal had been mainly to grab land, sending ultimatums and applying pressure on Ukraine for months or years before attacking would have been counterproductive. Of course Russians are insane/stupid and didn't think of this, but us galaxy brainers at Obsidian Entertainment forums see the picture clearly.

A general mobilization would help Russia little. Doctrinally, Russia has abandoned mass mobilization and lacks the reserve units and officer/NCO corps required to effectively train a large number of conscripts into something resembling competent soldiers. They may extend conscription terms and perhaps recall freshly discharged recruits who still remember which end of an AK goes toward the enemy, but options are limited.

*seems to have blown up in their face though, and now the costs imposed on Russia are considerable. Still, the war is being fought in Ukraine, and if Russians decide that all they can do is dig in and simply crank up the damage with standoff weapons and artillery, it'll become a test of endurance which Ukraine may not win. For example, Ukrainian air defenses may currently prevent effective Russian air support of ground operations. But they may not be able to prevent Russia from using its massive strategic bomber fleet to level cities with iron bombs. And then we would see what indiscriminately targeting civilians actually looks like.

Hopefully it won't come to that, but the outlook isn't good.

Edited May 3, 2022 by 213374U

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

 

 

Saying that it is complex is probably the reason, that the people do not understand a lot about that conflict, and it is just because the Western Media completely ignore it... You cannot get a qualified opinion, when the sources are missing... In Slovakia, media do not care, because like 99% of our population, have no clue where Yemen lies

" In Slovakia, media do not care, because like 99% of our population, have no clue where Yemen lies" 

I appreciate your honesty, it makes a refreshing change to the race card being played. The truth is always the best response 

[xzar_monty]

28 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Obviously it won't be taken, after all the sacrifices it would amount to a major defeat.
Returning to 2021 borders, admitting guilt and paying reparations would likely be minimal imposed conditions.
No way Putin (or his vision for Russia's future) could survive a humiliation like that.

That's an interesting choice of word, there, "sacrifices". It most certainly would amount to a major defeat.

But if we disregard religious meanings, sacrifice would amount to something like "giving up something valuable for the sake of other considerations". What sort of valuable things (for itself) has Russia sacrificed? Certainly not its own soldiers. Ordnance and other equipment, I suppose, yes. I don't think it has exactly "sacrificed" its credibility and reputation, it has simply lost it.

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, 213374U said:

At least we have finally moved past the fake care for heroic Ukraine and started to openly admit that it's all about power politics. This also explains much better the 'fight to the last Ukrainian' stance because the goal is to take Russia down, not avoid a long and destructive war and the escalation risks it entails. Progress, of sorts.

 

No thats your interpretation and words

The initial support for Ukraine was because Putin is a liar, a warmonger and he invaded a sovereign country on the border of the EU. And Ukraine has become the battleground to end the egregious Russian " lets recreate the Soviet borders " pipedream we have seen over the last 20 years 

Once it was revealed how inept the Russian military has been an additional objective was realized. The Russian invasion can be stopped by defeating them militarily, not just relying on sanctions to end Putins War,  and the Ukrainians believe they can do this and then renegotiate\reclaim  Crimea and Donbas 

But the initial Western response is still a humanitarian one because we do care about the lives of Ukrainians

[Azdeus]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Nothing personal against you or any other Swede here but as an American I also don't want Sweden in NATO. Finland yes, Sweden no. I feel Sweden will be a pain in the ass within NATO much like France and Turkey, and furthermore I continue to take very strong offence at past anti-US Swedish actions. Just my personal feelings.

No offence taken, and I do hope you don't take offence at my views either.

I feel that Sweden in NATO would be a disgustingly hypocritical thing considering what our past stances are/have been.