Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[Zoraptor]

MiG-29 is pretty useless for ground attack. Syria massively preferred ancient Su22/24 and MiG21/23 to using their MiG29s for ground attack and they had complete air superiority. They very occasionally used them for precision drops though- decapitating Ahrar ash Sham and Jaish al Islam's leadership most prominently. Ukraine also already has Mig29s so there's no improvement in strike range.

Transfered to Rammstein, heh. They really are worried about the lot of them copping a nuke and think nuking a US base in Germany is an escalation too far.

5 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

From what I recall reading, it was about a six year "tussle" between Ukraine and Crimea for them to completely come to an agreement with each other on how things should work administratively between the two of them, with Crimea getting special status and treatment that no other areas of Ukraine got...but I did not see any mention of occupation or invasion or anything like that. That doesn't mean nothing happened or was threatened, but it wasn't mentioned.

The tussle was more Russia <--> Ukraine over Sevastopol/ basing/ division of the Black Sea Fleet.  In the end there wasn't much tussle for Crimea, as Crimea had no troops.

Ukraine sent in ~50,000 extra troops in 1995 when it looked like Crimea might action things and when they expelled Meshkov. They also had troops deployed in 1992 when the "part of Ukraine" got inserted post facto in the Crimean constitution.

The legal argument about Crimea acknowledging Ukrainian sovereignty may have been... arguable in 1992- though not without hypocrisy, if Ukrainian troops being present doesn't invalidate 1992 then Russian troops being present in 2014...- but Ukraine tore up that constitution in favour of one dictated from Kiev where the practical autonomy they got was... being called an autonomous republic, and that after a pretty extensive period of direct rule. They also specifically changed the constitution of Ukraine to prevent secession under any realistic circumstance as they'd need the majority approval of every oblast to secede.

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

You mean after Russia was caught cheating or abusing each of these treaties? The real question is why did the US continue to stick with these treaties for as long as they did. That Russia cannot be trusted has been demonstrated again and again, especially in the Putin years.

...

Not even the US made any claims about Russia abrogating ABM.

[Raithe]

 

[BruceVC]

39 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Yet another complete turnaround by the polish government then.
That they would try to hide behind US with this, after decades of 'evil Russia' rhetoric might just be a new low for the ruling party.

And I'm pretty sure it is too late for them to do much good by now.

 

Im not understanding your post? What is the Polish government hiding behind and what do you expect them to do?

They supplying aircraft to the Ukrainians and in turn getting aircraft from the US. This is what the Ukrainians have been asking for ? Isnt that  what your government is doing?

[HoonDing]

There'll be a reckoning once Drump returns and pulls Amerika out of NATO.

[Malcador]

34 minutes ago, rjshae said:

The Mig-29 has ground attack capability. It's possible it may give the Ukraine better cross-border strike capabilities, so they can attack Russian logistics and other targets. They would also be in range of Moscow from Kyiv.

Probably going to be facing a lot of S-400s that way.

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

...And you honest to goodness, deep down inside, believe these "reports"?

Yes I do.

That you don't, in the face of what are extremely credible reports from multiple sources, is troubling.

[kanisatha]

22 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Not even the US made any claims about Russia abrogating ABM.

Actually they did. With the ABM Treaty the issue was not quite Russian cheating as it was Russian abuse of the giant loophole in the treaty. The treaty allowed both sides to have two ABM sites around Moscow and Washington, armed with systems developed prior to the treaty going into effect. This resulted in two problems for the US side. First, unlike Russia which only cared/cares about protecting Moscow from attack, the US as a democratic country cannot just only defend Washington. Members of Congress themselves were (correctly) demanding that any US ABM system should defend the whole country (i.e all 50 states) and not just DC. The US tried to get the Russians to agree to an amendment to the treaty to allow the two permitted sites to be anywhere in the country but Russia, understanding how this issue was screwing the US, flatly refused.

Second, the Russians replaced their original ABMs with new, much more capable systems in the late 80s and early 90s. This was not permitted under the treaty, but the way Russia argued it was that their new systems were not really new and rather were just upgrades of the old interceptors. To facilitate this argument they even gave their new interceptors the same name and designations as the old interceptors even though the missiles were indisputably brand new systems (like how in the 70s they designated their Tu-26 bombers as Tu-22M so that they could claim they were just an "upgrade" of the Tu-22 bombers and thus not a new system in violation of SALT).

[pmp10]

15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Im not understanding your post? What is the Polish government hiding behind and what do you expect them to do?

The planes are getting transferred to US for a rather pitiful pretense of polish non-involvement. 
I would expect them to either openly go with this on day 3, or never bow to pressure.
Instead they kept sending mixed messages, (even after officially denying the news) likely trying to drive some bargain.

In result they showed themselves afraid, wasted crucial time and fooled no-one. 

[kanisatha]

1 minute ago, pmp10 said:

The planes are getting transferred to US for a rather pitiful pretense of polish non-involvement. 
I would expect them to either openly go with this on day 3, or never bow to pressure.
Instead they kept sending mixed messages, (even after officially denying the news) likely trying to drive some bargain.

In result they showed themselves afraid, wasted crucial time and fooled no-one. 

But hasn't Poland already directly transferred to Ukraine other weapons?

[BruceVC]

2 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

The planes are getting transferred to US for a rather pitiful pretense of polish non-involvement. 
I would expect them to either openly go with this on day 3, or never bow to pressure.
Instead they kept sending mixed messages, (even after officially denying the news) likely trying to drive some bargain.

In result they showed themselves afraid, wasted crucial time and fooled no-one. 

Okay I see what you saying 

[xzar_monty]

17 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

That you don't, in the face of what are extremely credible reports from multiple sources, is troubling.

Let us keep in mind that according to the Red Cross, the evacuation route offered to Ukrainians fleeing from Mariupol was mined. Russian brutality and cynicism is off the scale.

[Raithe]

[pmp10]

3 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

But hasn't Poland already directly transferred to Ukraine other weapons?

Yes, IIRC there was at least one transport of javelins since the war started.
Even if I have that wrong I'm sure numerous weapon shipments have passed thru Polish part of the border.

 

[kanisatha]

9 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Let us keep in mind that according to the Red Cross, the evacuation route offered to Ukrainians fleeing from Mariupol was mined. Russian brutality and cynicism is off the scale.

One of my students in my class today said she'd read that human rights groups have documented Russian use of the so-called 'butterfly bombs' in Ukraine. I was stunned to hear this, because back in my teens in the early 80s, in the old country, I was a very loud voice of condemnation of the Soviets for using these butterfly bombs in Afghanistan which were notorious for especially targetting children.

[kanisatha]

1 minute ago, pmp10 said:

Yes, IIRC there was at least one transport of javelins since the war started.
Even if I have that wrong I'm sure numerous weapon shipments have passed thru Polish part of the border.

Exactly. So why the song and dance about the transfer of the MiGs? Why go through the US?

[kanisatha]

Giving Ukraine fighter jets is probably the least useful thing we could be doing right now. What they truly need are anti-armor and anti-aircraft weapons. Besides, don't the eastern European states have plenty of Russian tanks, AFVs, artillery, rocket launchers, etc., in storage? Heck even the supply of a ton of (Russian) RPGs would help immensely.

Edited March 8, 2022 by kanisatha

[Chilloutman]

to be frank there must now be more Javelins and NLAWs in Ukraine than there are vehicles in whole Europe

[xzar_monty]

17 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

One of my students in my class today said she'd read that human rights groups have documented Russian use of the so-called 'butterfly bombs' in Ukraine. I was stunned to hear this, because back in my teens in the early 80s, in the old country, I was a very loud voice of condemnation of the Soviets for using these butterfly bombs in Afghanistan which were notorious for especially targetting children.

The thing that baffles me the most is that the Russian army seems to have absolutely no regard for life or decency -- not caring for the enemy is fair enough in a war, but there's no regard for their own, either. Numerous sources report that they are not taking back or minding their own dead. The troops don't appear well informed at all. And so on. It's astonishing. It's madness. However, there is ample precedent for this, dizzyingly well documented from previous wars.

It may have something to do with an imperial attitude: we've got plenty of soldiers, we can sacrifice as many as we please, the enemy will have fewer than we do. But it's astonishing beyond belief.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, Raithe said:

 

Confirmed by the US, Victoria Nuland saying that she is working with the Ukrainian goverment on how to stop Russia getting control of the research from those labs. China is also asking for an explanation.

[pmp10]

33 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Exactly. So why the song and dance about the transfer of the MiGs? Why go through the US?

Most likely afraid of Russian retaliation.
There is also some possibility that they cannot be retooled properly in Poland or genuine legal doubts were found about flying them directly from a NATO country.

But I'd put my money on simple fear.

27 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Besides, don't the eastern European states have plenty of Russian tanks, AFVs, artillery, rocket launchers, etc., in storage? 

Sure, but then we are practically talking a lend-lease program here and Moscow might see that as a major escalation.
And (costs involved aside) these things can't fight by themselves.
Ukrainian military is likely already fully engaged and there will not be enough time to train and equip new units with any complex hardware. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by pmp10

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Confirmed by the US, Victoria Nuland saying that she is working with the Ukrainian goverment on how to stop Russia getting control of the research from those labs. China is also asking for an explanation.

China, the country that was the birthplace of Corona and most other viruses

Let me guess Sarex, you suggesting we should care what China thinks about Biological labs in other countries 

[Sarex]

2 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

China, the country that was the birthplace of Corona and most other viruses

Let me guess Sarex, you suggesting we should care what China thinks about Biological labs in other countries 

Maybe Corona got out of Ukraine?

[Chilloutman]

why would USA put weapon grade bio weapon labs in UKRAINE of all the places possible? xD

[Malcador]

1 minute ago, Chilloutman said:

why would USA put weapon grade bio weapon labs in UKRAINE of all the places possible? xD

Decided by a Trump appointee ?

[kanisatha]

Hey eastern European friends, you guys just need to keep Putin off your backs for a couple more years. We Americans are pivoting from counter-insurgency and counterterrorism ops to fighting a land war against a major peer enemy. We just need a couple of years to retool. After our retool, we'll have your backs

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2022/02/23/these-soldiers-will-reinvent-cavalry-over-the-next-two-years/

(Very appropriate the retooling is starting with the US 1st Cavalry Division, as they would have been the division that led the NATO counterattack against the Warsaw Pact in any war back in '80s.)

Btw, this retool is already well underway for the navy and marine corps. That's why many US military experts are saying China will face a tough question very soon about whether they move on Taiwan, because their window to do so will actually be closing by decade's end when our current vulnerabilities will close and military power swings back sharply towards the US and away from China.