Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[Zoraptor]

Dunno, has he been begging to see footage of Ukrainians shooting up that 40 mile long convoy north of Kiev? That would seem to give the context of suggesting A-10s as whatever the Ukrainians have left doesn't seem to be doing that job*. Some people also seem to think they're indestructible so air superiority doesn't matter.

*Indeed, we got just enough Bayraktar videos on day3-4 to get their enthusiasts enthusiastic, and- so far as I am aware- literally literally nothing since. That amounts to ~1/10 of a video per Bayraktar over ~8 days (or 1/3, for those definitely supplied by day 1).

Edited March 5, 2022 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Hurlsnot said:

I keep reading that the Russian State media is pushing the narrative that civilian deaths are the fault of the Ukrainian military and I don't understand how that argument works for anyone. If a stray missile hits an apartment building, it doesn't matter if it was Ukrainian or Russian. The missile would not be fired if Russia was not in Ukraine, so it is completely the fault of Russia. 

I mean, I get that it is propaganda, but it still boggle my mind that it works.

Are you guys doing a "discuss the event " with your students so they understand this invasion, I would love  to hear what the kids think and it aligns to the Cold War with the reality of Russia and this Ukraine crisis? So the US involvement is history in the making.

And when I say event I am  not suggesting you should change  the curriculum of the current history subjects, dont worry  I am talking about that " discuss the event " you arranged where you  discussed how the US had killed those Afghans in an accidental drone strike or something similar (I dont remember the exact details )

 

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Being under Russian domination is the worst possible outcome for Ukrainians (and anyone else for that matter), so may as well try the insurgency path.

Kanie this invasion and what it means and how societies reflect  on it is interesting to me and  I wanted to get your opinion on something. And my post is just your personal opinion as an educator and is what I am saying something I should be concerned about especially when it comes to the reality of Communism and the USSR and how its portrayed in schools in the US but my post  is about SA schools and may not be the same in US schools 

One of nieces who is 15 has decided she wants to take  history in grade 10-12 and out of interest I asked my brother to send me what is the current SA curriculum history. I have often heard in the last 20 years how " our kids need to learn the history of  events that is not just "Western "  

Also this is my only brother who is one  of those white people who believes " white people must admit we all racist to defeat racism in our society " and also " Colonialism\Capitalism is the cause of inequality ", Im exaggerating to make the point but he kind of believes that in well meaning way

So he sent the grade 10-12  curriculum to me on WhatsApp and all I can say is I wish he hadnt  

It seemed to be about 60-70 % all about topics like "imperialism and Capitalism in Africa " and " the USSR was  a viable form of ideology to the evil West " and  " what liberty really existed after the French Revolution " and they do have a section of the Cold War that seemed to cover "Vietnam and the role of China " so Im not sure how they frame the dark reality of the USSR and programs like Stalins insane Collectivization programs 

And what my concern is my niece learns a soft version of Communism and the USSR and then when the reality becomes real like this invasion of Ukraine and Putins attempt to " recreate the borders of the Soviet empire " she will be  confused and think " but thats not  so bad because its an  alternative to the West which is equally as bad " or something similar

So the point of this post in summary is does it matter if their is indeed a watering down of the Cold War and Communism that is taught at our SA schools or any school? I dont think it really matters because the  reality of SA is we have no agency in the new Cold War and if students learn something inaccurate that will quickly end in RL

But I am still worry about how history is framed in schools and does it make a difference ?

 

[ComradeYellow]

Roger Waters chimes in

https://asiatimes.com/2022/03/the-war-profiteering-gangsters-will-kill-us-all/

Calls Russia a "gangster neoliberal capitalist paradise" and encourages leftists to stop looking at Russia as some kind of socialist bloc in any way.

Interesting.  I always admired Roger, Pink Floyd was my teenage band.

[Lexx]

Apparently russia is thinking about making software piracy legal. Tells you how bad things are.

[Sarex]

It was never really illegal, the only thing it would change is that companies could use it without fear.

[pmp10]

18 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Being under Russian domination is the worst possible outcome for Ukrainians (and anyone else for that matter), so may as well try the insurgency path.

You only need to look at Syria and Afghanistan to understand the costs of insurgency.
It's of course Ukrainian people choice to make, but it would take many years of fighting and guarantee plenty of death and destruction in not too-rich nation to begin with.

And I'm pretty sure the Ukraine that could win an insurgency will have no place in the west.
In the process of fighting it would become something scary, a country that no one would want around. 

[bugarup]

56 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

And I'm pretty sure the Ukraine that could win an insurgency will have no place in the west.

France and Poland had pretty famous insurgencies during the World War 2. Seem to be doing fine in the West.

[kanisatha]

10 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Kanie this invasion and what it means and how societies reflect  on it is interesting to me and  I wanted to get your opinion on something. And my post is just your personal opinion as an educator and is what I am saying something I should be concerned about especially when it comes to the reality of Communism and the USSR and how its portrayed in schools in the US but my post  is about SA schools and may not be the same in US schools 

One of nieces who is 15 has decided she wants to take  history in grade 10-12 and out of interest I asked my brother to send me what is the current SA curriculum history. I have often heard in the last 20 years how " our kids need to learn the history of  events that is not just "Western "  

Also this is my only brother who is one  of those white people who believes " white people must admit we all racist to defeat racism in our society " and also " Colonialism\Capitalism is the cause of inequality ", Im exaggerating to make the point but he kind of believes that in well meaning way

So he sent the grade 10-12  curriculum to me on WhatsApp and all I can say is I wish he hadnt  

It seemed to be about 60-70 % all about topics like "imperialism and Capitalism in Africa " and " the USSR was  a viable form of ideology to the evil West " and  " what liberty really existed after the French Revolution " and they do have a section of the Cold War that seemed to cover "Vietnam and the role of China " so Im not sure how they frame the dark reality of the USSR and programs like Stalins insane Collectivization programs 

And what my concern is my niece learns a soft version of Communism and the USSR and then when the reality becomes real like this invasion of Ukraine and Putins attempt to " recreate the borders of the Soviet empire " she will be  confused and think " but thats not  so bad because its an  alternative to the West which is equally as bad " or something similar

So the point of this post in summary is does it matter if their is indeed a watering down of the Cold War and Communism that is taught at our SA schools or any school? I dont think it really matters because the  reality of SA is we have no agency in the new Cold War and if students learn something inaccurate that will quickly end in RL

But I am still worry about how history is framed in schools and does it make a difference ?

Yeah that is definitely a very rosy approach to teaching history, not only in covering up the true nature of communism all over the world but also in the completely false spin about capitalism. But if you are a leftist this is the only thing you can do, because simply providing facts and letting people decide for themselves would completely decimate all support for leftist ideas. It happens quite a bit in schools and especially universities in the West too (universities are the only places in the West you can still find idiot Marxists). But because in the West you also have alternative information available, the ability to brainwash people is considerably less effective.

[kanisatha]

4 minutes ago, bugarup said:

France and Poland had pretty famous insurgencies during the World War 2. Seem to be doing fine in the West.

Haha, you beat me to it. I was going to say exactly this.

Yes the costs of standing and fighting against an invader are always very high, and have been that way since the beginning of human settlements. But as the old saying goes, "I'd rather die on my feet than live on my knees." There are so many things worse than dying, and living under Russian domination is one of those things for sure.

[Malcador]

24 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

because simply providing facts and letting people decide for themselves would completely decimate all support for leftist ideas

All "leftist" ideas?

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

You only need to look at Syria and Afghanistan to understand the costs of insurgency.
It's of course Ukrainian people choice to make, but it would take many years of fighting and guarantee plenty of death and destruction in not too-rich nation to begin with.

And I'm pretty sure the Ukraine that could win an insurgency will have no place in the west.
In the process of fighting it would become something scary, a country that no one would want around. 

Might not, is your concern the Azov scumbags take over?

[pmp10]

43 minutes ago, bugarup said:

France and Poland had pretty famous insurgencies during the World War 2. Seem to be doing fine in the West.

And who will provide the liberating armies in this case?
With NATO drawing the line at soldier equipment I suppose this task falls to Moldavia?

13 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Might not, is your concern the Azov scumbags take over?

Them or someone worse.
No country can fight up to 10 years of brutal irregular warfare and emerge a bastion of democracy and liberal values.
War brutalizes people, this part of the world should be perfectly aware of that.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

35 minutes ago, Malcador said:

All "leftist" ideas?

Yes, the 8 hour workday only happened because the IWW obfuscated the truth about how work sets you free. If people were allowed to make up their own minds, we'd be working 996.

[ComradeYellow]

36 minutes ago, Malcador said:

All "leftist" ideas?

I don't see much "leftist" ideas in the West,  everyone is acting very conservative and status quo and I do not see any kind of new egalitarian ideas floating around just "Putin/Russia bad, Western Democracy good kill!" in the same vein since like 1945 or something.

[Darkpriest]

This ends the topic of the no-fly zone I guess. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/evacuation-ceasefires-break-down-russian-shelling-resumes-key-port-cities

Not sure if it is possible to verify, but it seems Russians gave 5 hours for evacuation, so it wasn't like some media report " the cease fire was broken right away." 

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, bugarup said:

France and Poland had pretty famous insurgencies during the World War 2. Seem to be doing fine in the West.

The Ukraine has fought an insurgent war against Russia before, so it's not like this is a novelty. Cf. Ukrainian Insurgent Army.

[Mamoulian War]

15 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

This ends the topic of the no-fly zone I guess. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/evacuation-ceasefires-break-down-russian-shelling-resumes-key-port-cities

Not sure if it is possible to verify, but it seems Russians gave 5 hours for evacuation, so it wasn't like some media report " the cease fire was broken right away." 

They did not break ceasefire right away, but they broke it. Probably after two or three hours.

[Lexx]

What I find more interesting is that Putin doesn't seem to be in the same room as these air hostesses whom he explains the current situation right now .. for some reason.

 

[Hurlshort]

26 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

This ends the topic of the no-fly zone I guess. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/evacuation-ceasefires-break-down-russian-shelling-resumes-key-port-cities

Not sure if it is possible to verify, but it seems Russians gave 5 hours for evacuation, so it wasn't like some media report " the cease fire was broken right away." 

5 hours is a miniscule window to evacuate a city, so "right away" is still very accurate. Anything less than 24 hours can be considered breaking the ceasefire "right away". When a historian writes about this a century from now, that is how it will look on paper.

[Malcador]

Seems Ukraine's doing ok without this no fly zone Zelenskyy keeps trying to guilt NATO into putting in place

[Elerond]

49 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Seems Ukraine's doing ok without this no fly zone Zelenskyy keeps trying to guilt NATO into putting in place

No fly zone would mean actual military presence from Nato and willingness to shoot down any Russian/Ukraine air craft that breaks the no fly zone, so Nato would become defacto party of conflict which is what Zelensky hopes because for him it would mean that Ukraine would not need to fight alone against Russia.

[ComradeYellow]

"Doing ok"

[HoonDing]

Every woman in this room is taller than Mini Vlad

[Zoraptor]

Most of the people who want a no fly zone know what it entails, they are just convinced that Russia will back down instead of, say, using tactical nukes on every nearby NATO airfield. Haven't even learned/ forgot the lesson of 9 days ago. Fortunately there are some more level heads on the military side who know exactly what it would entail.

5 hours for an evacuation of Mariupol was never going to be enough for everyone, but it can safely be assumed that it was intended to be the first rather than the only. Indeed, they might end up busing out the combatants too, though I wouldn't be relying on that.

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Seems Ukraine's doing ok without this no fly zone Zelenskyy keeps trying to guilt NATO into putting in place

It's the dichotomy of propaganda- you're doing great, but, not so great you don't need more help. Funny thing is, Ukraine has been claiming that level of losses for Russia every single day, and managed to verify maybe one in ten up to now. Don't really know why the Russians aren't using their semi precision bombs rather than flying low enough for stingers to have an effect (exc Su25). That's the vast majority of what they did in Syria, and the rebels there had far less AA.

Situation on the ground is a lot less rosy though. The US ambassador to the UN has Russian forces ~70km further into southern Ukraine than even the most pessimistic pro Ukraine map- further than some pro Russian ones- and they're outside Kiev on the eastern side now too, about 100km further on than maps show. Indeed, most of the pro Ukraine maps seem to be trying to build up their credentials by having advances already made marked as being planned advances, making them effectively a couple of days behind reality. Russians also turned up at Enerhodar when they were 'meant' to be ~50km away. Way too many optimistic prognostications based on maps that rely on 'confirmed' gains, which means only stuff Ukraine confirms- and sometimes not even that (eg Pologi, taken 5 days ago).

Also, Ukraine takes control of Mykolaev, according to Ukrainian media. Didn't think there had been any suggestion they'd lost control of it.