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Coronavirus: Continuing Vigilance


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If you are in America or Europe, this website should give you an idea about how long the lockdown in each country or US state will end:

COVID-19 Projections

Just use the pull-down menu to select your country or state.  Just look for when the curve will drop down and hit the X-axis.

For examples:

California should be out of the crisis by mid-May, and should completely lift the social distancing and stay-at-home order by the end of May.

For Florida, the situation will continue until end of June.

 

Edited by ktchong
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Based on the projections of COVID-19 Projections website, using California as the example:

 

California should be out of the crisis by mid-MAY, and lift the social distancing an stay-at-home orders by mid-to-end of MAY.
 

On June 1, the projected "All Hospital Beds Needed" in California for COVID-19 will be 0, projected "ICU Beds Needed" will be only 1, and projected "Ventilator Needed" will be 0.   (i.e., 0-1-0.)

For today, April 7, the projected all beds needed is 3892, ICU beds needed is 1993, and ventilators needed is 493.

The real purpose of the social distancing and stay-at-home is to prevent the healthcare system from collapsing, so when the needed beds, ICU beds and ventilators are 0 or close to, we should be clear.

Florida will reach 1-0-0 by June 26.

 

Also check the Deaths Per Day, (the second chart for any country/state.)  The projected deaths in California for today (4/7/2020) is 49.  It will reach 0 by May 20.

Today China reported the first day without any COVID 19 death since the crisis started in late January, (if we are to believe the numbers that came out of China;)  Let's assume California will lift the social distancing and stay-at-home at the same numbers as China,  China lifted its lockdown almost a week ago, (a week before 0 deaths,) which means California will probably lift the lockdown during the week of May 13, a week before 0 deaths.

Of course, we should consider that the social distancing and stay-at-home orders are not real lockdown; they are only a partial lockdown.  China had a real national complete lockdown, which is more like implementing the martial law in America and the West.  Which means, US states and the West may be more inclined to lift the whatever partial lockdown much earlier before they reach 0 deaths.
 

 

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Coronavirus response delayed despite health officials’ private alarm

"“We are now well past the equivalent 5:45 moment at Mann Gulch,” Mecher wrote in his email Feb. 27, referring to the moment in a historic wildfire when responders realized too late that they needed to turn around. “You can’t outrun it.”"

so much wasted time.

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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It appears the U.S. may be under reporting deaths attributed to Covid-19. Now we can’t trust the US figures to give an accurate case fatality rate. I would’ve thought the US was better than this.

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths?fbclid=IwAR2mGBe0LP6BlcMs3tWPkIqesxVtxuEXN1JYKZkNTPZRRjCP982OMswlr-w

The FDNY says it responded to 2,192 cases of deaths at home between March 20th and April 5th, or about 130 a day, an almost 400 percent increase from the same time period last year. (In 2019, there were just 453 cardiac arrest calls where a patient died, according to the FDNY.)

That number has been steadily increasing since March 30th, with 241 New Yorkers dying at home Sunday — more than the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths that occurred citywide that day. On Monday night, the city reported 266 new deaths, suggesting the possibility of a 40% undercount of coronavirus-related deaths.

“There’s no doubt we’re undercounting,” said City Councilman Mark Levine, who chairs the city’s Health Committee. “If the person had a confirmed test result before death then they were marked that was the cause of death on the death certificate. If someone did not have a confirmed test but it appears they had the symptoms, then OCME will flag them as a ‘possible’ [COVID death]. It’s unclear to me whether those are being counted in our total stats.”

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6 hours ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

It appears the U.S. may be under reporting deaths attributed to Covid-19. Now we can’t trust the US figures to give an accurate case fatality rate. I would’ve thought the US was better than this.

The US is far from alone in lying/ 'lying' about the death count. I'd suspect that just about every country with epidemic level infections is underestimating deaths one way or another as deliberate policy to minimise panic. France wasn't counting deaths in either rest homes (ie among the people most statistically susceptible...) or at home in their figures for example, only deaths in hospital. The policy will absolutely be that a lot of deaths outside hospital won't be counted as they aren't 'confirmed' to be covid19, and a lot won't be counted where there are other complicating factors that can be blamed.

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8 hours ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

It appears the U.S. may be under reporting deaths attributed to Covid-19. Now we can’t trust the US figures to give an accurate case fatality rate. I would’ve thought the US was better than this.

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths?fbclid=IwAR2mGBe0LP6BlcMs3tWPkIqesxVtxuEXN1JYKZkNTPZRRjCP982OMswlr-w

 

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

The US is far from alone in lying/ 'lying' about the death count. I'd suspect that just about every country with epidemic level infections is underestimating deaths one way or another as deliberate policy to minimise panic. France wasn't counting deaths in either rest homes (ie among the people most statistically susceptible...) or at home in their figures for example, only deaths in hospital. The policy will absolutely be that a lot of deaths outside hospital won't be counted as they aren't 'confirmed' to be covid19, and a lot won't be counted where there are other complicating factors that can be blamed.

Even if there aren't any shenanigans, they wouldn't be able to confirm cause of death until after the autopsy test results returned, so a confirmed COVID-19 case wouldn't immediately reflect in the statistics anyhow.  There's no way a death at home on Sunday would reflect in the numbers reported on Monday even with a government that honestly reports the numbers.

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2 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

This is soooo... stupid! And that is coming from ME! https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/us/coronavirus-idaho-bundy-patriot.html

Airstrike.  Only way to be sure.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Hey I am 100% in favor of thumbing your nose at the government and saying "f--k you don't tell me what to do". But doing it while doing an activity that is inherently dangerous in an of itself and not just to yourself, is like cutting off your nose to spite your face. 

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Get off my lawn!

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92356152_1279129715622947_22868654642880

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"Cuius testiculos habeas, habeas cardia et cerebellum."

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Ah, America.

 

 

 

 

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Is the coronavirus airborne? Experts can’t agree

Also, there's talk (in Germany) of evaluating the use of quick serological tests as a basis to issue an immunity passport to people who have recovered and so can no longer spread it -- being therefore exempt from confinement. This would in turn lessen the economic impact of lockdown and allow for early recovery.

The sky's the limit with a well-funded and relatively efficient bureaucracy that isn't in equal parts infiltrated by ****-eating political activists and impeded by gross government incompetence, I guess.

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- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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2 hours ago, ShadySands said:

Still can't find any rubbing alcohol or hand sanitizer but grain alcohol is in stock everywhere

Wonder if one can find iodine...

Someone out there is coming out of isolation with yellow hands

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14 hours ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

It appears the U.S. may be under reporting deaths attributed to Covid-19. Now we can’t trust the US figures to give an accurate case fatality rate. I would’ve thought the US was better than this.

https://gothamist.com/news/surge-number-new-yorkers-dying-home-officials-suspect-undercount-covid-19-related-deaths?fbclid=IwAR2mGBe0LP6BlcMs3tWPkIqesxVtxuEXN1JYKZkNTPZRRjCP982OMswlr-w

 

 

the undercounting is a known problem. is not a hidden problem or a problem which is being systematic covered up as it is elsewheres... not yet at least.

from a recent reuters article. 

"The city will now try to quantify how many of those died from coronavirus-related causes and add that to the its official death toll, New York’s health department said.

"“People are dying outside the hospital, unfortunately. It happens every day,” Oren Barzilay, the president of the Local 2057 labor union representing city paramedics, said. “I think those numbers, those statistics in New York for deaths would significantly go up if they tested everyone that expired.”"

am thinking is gonna be years 'fore we get a genuine accurate guess as to costs o' covid-19. during a crisis, particular one such as this which is outside the experience o' most persons, recordkeeping suffers. worse, 'cause o' initial fumble regarding testing, there just ain't enough resources to generate accurate numbers. will be folks from february and early march who were still being listed as pneumonia 'cause covid-19 weren't on the radar for too many health professionals. die alone in your home and become food for your cat for some number o' days is gonna make your covid-19 diagnosis less certain, yes? etc. 

and yeah, will be some folks who die o' covid-like symptoms who is added to tally improper to boost numbers. such cases will be smallish in number, but is gonna happen. is gonna be folks with late stage metastatic cancer who die of pneumonia and doctor needs decide whether to indicate cause o' death as covid-19 or not.  

there is gonna be errors in tally and many such errors will be innocent. 

if fed and state is clear fudging the numbers to make situation look better than it is, then we would be angry. pretend as if the current official numbers is very accurate, then am becoming discouraged as such obvious misleading nonsense is what you see from china and russia... and trump.

"Somebody dies, I think they've been pretty accurate. The death counts, I think they are very, very accurate." 

don't believe it. as long as the government representatives is honest 'bout the shortcoming o' the cases/death tallies, am personal ok with the situation. obvious and intentional bs, on the other hand, is unacceptable. that said, most state-level actors we has heard from is cognizant o' the accounting problem and is admitting their failure to achieve true precision in case and death tallies.

there should be a realization arguable accurate numbers is gonna be a matter o' rigorous scientific guesswork done perhaps years from today. the resources don't exist to do accurate counts at this time, and even if the resources were available, such accounting would be suspect 'cause o' the nature o' this crisis.  however, anybody from government tells you otherwise, tells you the numbers is "very, very accurate," is probable lying.

HA! Good Fun!

"If there be time to expose through discussion the falsehood and fallacies, to avert the evil by the processes of education, the remedy to be applied is more speech, not enforced silence."Justice Louis Brandeis, Concurring, Whitney v. California, 274 U.S. 357 (1927)

"Im indifferent to almost any murder as long as it doesn't affect me or mine."--Gfted1 (September 30, 2019)

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https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

"As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China’s Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting."

Is it really intelligence if it is only read when people do retrospect analyze?

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9 hours ago, Amentep said:

 

Even if there aren't any shenanigans, they wouldn't be able to confirm cause of death until after the autopsy test results returned, so a confirmed COVID-19 case wouldn't immediately reflect in the statistics anyhow.  There's no way a death at home on Sunday would reflect in the numbers reported on Monday even with a government that honestly reports the numbers.

Theoretically* at least we'd be including deaths at home and the like before an autopsy. After a few incidents with hospital staff being infected and our first (and so far, touch wood, only) death initially being diagnosed as just flu and forcing a regional hospital to basically shut down they changed the rules so that any clinical diagnosis of/ with covid19 symptoms is assumed to be it, and included in the figures as a probable case- even if there's been a PCR that came back negative.

*They could of course still lie about it, if they wanted to, but there's a lot more point when the death toll is higher and a lot more scope for an overwhelmed system systemically under reporting.

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