Zoraptor

Trump has suspended a plan- or a concept of a plan- to bomb Iran again after his Gulf allies objected. Which might not really be news given it's Trump but is kind of interesting given the sustained push to paint those same Gulf allies as being all in (politically, and over the last week or so, militarily) for the initial attack that has been going on. I was always skeptical of MbS being anywhere near as gung ho as he was painted as given his country's sustained inability to even deal with the Houthi's drone and missile threat. And the UAE's leaders must be aware that their 'Sparta of the Gulf' reputation is a joke when the orders issued by the rich Dubai/ Abu Dhabi elite have to be carried out by those in the poorer Emirates. Which already resulted in their expeditionary force fleeing Yemen after nearly 100 Fujairans copped a scud there and threatened mutiny at dying for Dubai's imperial ambitions. (The off the records seem to be implying that there's a ban on airspace and baseage for attacks, at least until diplomacy is exhausted, and has been since the ill advised attempt to force the Hormuz blockade)

The original source for that is the (free/ gifted) article that Malc linked to above.

Absolutely disastrous local body elections for Labour and Keir Starmer in the UK. Just as bad really for the Conservatives too, though they had a lot less to lose. Better ban a few more protest groups and rallies, I'm sure that will fix the problem. Pretty good results for everyone with a cause like the seperatists or greens though- or a 'cause', like Reform. Lots of Labour people saying that when push comes to shove voters won't go for Farage and he isn't really likeable or electable and when push comes to shove they'll come back to Labour. Usually, sure, but not if there's the one two punch of you offering an unliked and uncharismatic leader pushing the millstone of status quo up hill like an artificially cheery and seemingly unaware* Sisyphus. Literally the only thing Starmer seems to passionately believe in is giving Israel carte blanche and suppressing anyone who complains. An utterly terrible look for someone whose prior claim to fame was being a human rights' lawyer. At least he's not the 'unelectable' Bernie Sanders Jeremy Corbyn, I guess. Whose Labour got half a million more votes in 2019 than Starmer's did at the last election. Though you'd never know from the media coverage. Very much "no, it's the kids voters who are wrong" on display from both Labour. *If there's one thing I hate in British politics it's the way everyone talks the same overly PRed and media coached way. Projects almost exactly the same air of honesty and integrity as a Nigerian Prince scam.

That's just the natural order of things. Moles have bad eyesight, Moa had no wings despite being birds. We don't have gills. If you don't need it, you lose it; that's just evolution. If your leaders will never be held to account then they stop justifying stuff properly. Because they simply don't need to.

Half assed is being generous. 'Concept of an ass' is probably fairer. No US ships; because it's too dangerous for AEGIS destroyers and the like. It is, however, safe for slow bulk carriers, supertankers etc. Hmm. Seems unlikely insurance is going to want to bet on that arrangement.

Legally the Cuban blockade is not a Blockade, which has a formal definition, it's an Embargo. The US pressures countries into 'voluntarily' not trading/ supplying oil etc rather than physically preventing them. Hence Russia sending two tankers through. As above, Cuba wasn't even formally Blockaded during the Missile Crisis

Yes, a big B Blockade is literally an Act of War. That was why in the Cuban Missile Crisis it was never a formal Blockade; because that would mean the US and USSR were at war. You can legally sink ships trying to run the Blockade- indeed, in order for it to be a Blockade you have to try and stop them, by any means- and they can sink yours. Which would obviously have been a rather bad idea all around. Bit of a measure of how unpopular the war is that Trump doesn't want to risk taking it to Congress despite theoretically having a majority in both houses and a lot of Democrats who'd vote pro Israel for literally anything else.

'The market' is dumb as rocks since Trump hasn't exactly been subtle about his manipulation. But yeah, now it's more likely to be the emergency stocks that were released running down fully and some of the Gulf sites approaching their theoretical storage limits (after which they have to stop pumping oil, and the restart process is s l o w) which are realities that Trump can't rhetoricise around. We'll know Trump is actually serious when he stops trying to send people Iran won't talk to as negotiators.

On a different note, seems a lot of NAFO types have North Korea 'announcing' they had 2000+ deaths in Kursk. Which they get by counting names on a 'memorial' wall and doubling the number, because it's 'double sided'. It's actually- or at least, according to DPRK itself- a list of those given combat citations. And is clearly single sided anyway, not double. The only admitted losses are the 101 on the actual memorial wall (with individual pictures and stated as being such by DPRK) shown last year.

Dunno, they got at least some Euro politicians talking about sanctions on Israel over it. Sanctions for selling grain vs no sanctions for killing civilians, killing journalists, torturing babies, systematic rape raping doctors to death and persistently attacking aid workers plus starvation as a weapon of war, collective punishment and Perfidy about perfectly sums up the reality of Europe's moral compass.

Regionally all of Senegal/ Chad/ Niger/ CdI had a permanent French military presence since independence. Mali was Soviet aligned for a bit iirc, but had French military presence dating back to at least 1999*, so not 2013. That's just when Operation wotsit started. And, of course, France being the colonial power means they were 100% under French domination, then. You only have to look at the terms under which Niger's main international currency earner operated to see that it was being run for French benefit, not Nigerien. The Japanese were paying double the price the French were for yellowcake. *had to check french wikipedia to confirm that, so not exactly accessible.

Ukraine blew that pipeline up literally the next day, Bruce.

Côte d'Ivoire was last year, and probably a bit unexpected since France had still retained enough influence to arrest Laurance Gbagbo after a disputed election only 15 years ago, and the beneficiary of that move (ie Alassane Ouatarra) is still in office. 15 years, and four 'elections' later*. Senegal, Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso were the others that went earlier. *Some might say that a 95.3% vote for a candidate is a tad suspicious but I'm sure that he was- was- just that competent and popular. Though the more cynical might have just the most tiny little thought that maybe, just maybe, his legitimacy is going to be called into question at some point in the future by the same people who'd been ignoring it previous.

Funny thing, the bigger one, 14 years ago, was when the region was under French domination. What were the French doing to stop it, it's all their fault, why haven't things improved in 130 years of French domination etc etc said Bruce, never, ever. Funny thing as well, that was due to the primarily French decision to topple Gaddafi to unselfishly and generously try and keep then President Sarkozy out of jail for accepting definitely not bribes from Libya. Which flooded the area with unregulated arms and the completely unregulated support of anyone anti Gaddafi lead to AQIM getting a lot of them. A painful lesson- well not really, since the people who suffered from it weren't the rich white euroweenies who caused it, they patted themselves on the back while ignoring the open air slave markets etc- which at least was learnt from when it came to Syria. Where, of course, ISIS caliph al Baghdadi's deputy and head of Al Qaeda in Syria is now feted by people like... the French President at the Elysee. Ho hum.

Eh, if it's just suspension from 'important positions' it's a bit of a nothingburger. You cannot suspend members of NATO, there simply is not provision for it and everyone would have to agree to alter their charter. Which, presumably, the targeted parties would refuse to do. The Falklands thing is probably more significant, with Millei being a Trump bootlicker and all. Especially since Starmer caved over Diego Garcia, a deal Trump approved of, hated, approved of again then finally stopped. Just wait until some troll from Morocco mentions Ceuta and Mellila to Trump... The EU already has collective defence outside of NATO (since the Lisbon Treaty 2007/9, and there was a precursor even since benelux days, iirc). They also have a set of agreements with non EU European and other countries, though they generally stop short of outright alliances, even defensive. The 'realistic' scenario for NATO without the US is pretty much literally NATO, without the US. ie dissolve or mothball the alliance, everyone* else joins the North Western HemiDemisphere Treaty Organisation. It's not all that realistic though, even with Trump. *for a certain definition of everyone; would not be a surprise if Turkey were not invited despite their military strength.