Ongoing discussion of Ukraine

[obyknven]

Military drills to be held in Kyiv early on May 1

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/203058.html

 

"Attention residents and guests of the capital! Special tactical exercises will be held in Kyiv on the night of April 30 to May 1. As part of the exercises it is envisaged that columns of military vehicles will move in the city. Please note that the deployment of personnel and machinery will be held in the center of the city," reads the statement

Lol, Kievan junta lost control even in Kiev. For prevention of own fail they moved troops into capital.
 

[Gorgon]

Maybe it's a parade, you know, get everyone's patriotic juices flowing. 

[Cultist]

Well, the main profit out of all this ukrainuan issue is that now we will have a perfect example of "how to @#$% up revolution you've won" for the books. Because in such a short time we saw such a stream of unspeakably horrible decisions by ukrainian coalition, that pushed already unstable but yet not that irreversible situation, into the worst possible scenario for the new government.

Threats to soldiers, that were blocked by russian forces at their bases yet held as long as they could, which alienated and demoralized the military. Threats to wavering regions, which pushed them into russian embrace. Lack of diplomatic approach. Replacing old olygarchs with new ones, the ones who supported the unprising, which discredited anti-criminalization agends. Asking riot police to return to service, after their public humilation and proclaiming them public enemies. Failure to abandon internal coalition struggles in the face of region secession.

I expect soon we will have much much more lulz as they are preparing for elections. It's always fun to see an election in unstable and crumbling countries.

[Mor]

I you were speaking about failing to leverage the orange revolution of several years ago then I'd say that you are downplay the amount of fail. specifically the inability to take real steps to address the economic crisis and returning to soviet style corrupted and criminal system of state relations(like currently in Russia), but since your post seems to focus solely on the recent event and separatist crisis in particular, I think that you completely ignored external meddling part of the equation. Crisis usually unite people and drive through the need for compromise, but when someone playing the agitator driving the narrative against dialogue and comprise with who they frame as the fascist or west enemy, while pretending that their farts small of roses and will magically bring change, crisis tend to escalate into well fighting.

 

@Zoraptor, had connection issues, later will reply to second part, hopefully by the end of the shift if I have more than a couple of free minutes.

Edited April 30, 2014 by Mor

[Cultist]

They replaced supposedly corrupt system with even more corrupt system and then did it one more time. Just to be sure I suppose. Fourth replacement proved to be one replacement too much.

I see no problem in external meddling. If EU and USA can openly support, subside and encourage their pet movements, why Russia can't? EU grabbed their share of the country, Russia grabbed theirs. Now they squabble for remaining regions.

[Mor]

They replaced supposedly corrupt system with even more corrupt system and then did it one more time. Just to be sure I suppose. Fourth replacement proved to be one replacement too much.

I don't know how many iterations they had, but currently it is pretty much the same system like Russia. It is hard to cut lose old ties and certain practices from soviet era..

 

If EU and USA can openly support, subside and encourage their pet movements, why Russia can't? EU grabbed their share of the country, Russia grabbed theirs. Now they squabble for remaining regions.

Pet movements, interesting choice of words, let me guess Pet movements with their "capitalist/democratic" experiments? Anyway I see Russia meddling which include a chain of intervention involving troops and agreesive media propaganda, attack on government and various economical sanctions to force Ukraine in line, what exactly you think that USA and or EU has done along those lines (not the usual stuff, that everyone is doing, including Russia) Edited April 30, 2014 by Mor

[obyknven]

 

They replaced supposedly corrupt system with even more corrupt system and then did it one more time. Just to be sure I suppose. Fourth replacement proved to be one replacement too much.

I don't know how many iterations they had, but currently it is pretty much the same system like Russia. It is hard to cut lose old ties and certain practices from soviet era..

 

You known nothing. Difference between Russia and Ukraine is huge and nothing soviet exist in these two countries.

[Mor]

It is saying there's zero point implicitly trusting either sides' media- if you're refuting stuff/ making accusations with incorrect western propagated information it's exactly as bad as someone doing the same with Russian sourced stuff, it isn't fundamentally better just because West=good Russia=bad FACT! Indeed, it's utterly pointless getting a 'balanced' view from 'multiple sources' when they're all uncritically using exactly the same ultimate source*. How many media outlets pulled USAToday up on their mistranslation? How many didn't simply repeat it as gospel?

..

*That's particularly ironic on a gaming forum, because one of the biggest complaints about gaming journalists is how they uncritically regurgitate press releases from games companies and other site's speculation as if it's factual news and won't dissent from PR releases because they may lose access. But when the news media does the same thing...

What sides, Who is implicitly trusting what, Doesn't Russian media has a blunt conflict of interest? just because media outside of Russia reports show different picture then what Russia want, doesn't mean it takes sides. If you have an argument to make do it based on its merits, not by screaming Western media propaganda every time you see some "breaking news" you don't like\trust, which usually has cascading effect with two page of oby team chanting WMDs or some other stupid case they think that prove the rule. Noting attribution (i.e. according to) works far better/informative without enough space that we don't need to flash out our biases.

 

Also just so you know, every conspiracy nut thinks he is riding the high horse of critical thinking, as oppose to pleasuring himself in the pursuit of narrative. You may like to think of yourself as critical thinker, but just as I find Russia being as the instigator here, taking a broader look on recent chain of power moves to assert its dominance and real estate grabs in region.(who in many is still stuck in the cold war era, blaming the west for its loss of power and status and perceive it as its arch enemy. Russia warned against NATO enlargement/expanded cooperation with former Soviet republics and ended up intervening under various tramped up pretexts in all those Soviet republics who cooperated with NATO and haven't been brought to heel --i.e. Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and other seem to brewing--, in a nice grouping of "breakaway" region in the Black-sea region which Russia considers as pivotal connector between central Europe and the Balkans in its revival mood.) While you have been pretty much following the script of Russia's narrative, even using almost identical terminology at times, making your supposed critical thinking a very one sided affair. (I have yet to see you challenging the official "party line")

 

 

More importantly you always take great pain to put Russian state media on the same footing as Western media in you comparisons, which is false, both fundamentally and quantitatively based on all available data. This not about semantics or some stupid grand argument, but an important aspect of the situation in Russia, and its effect\influence\role in Eastern Ukraine with its large Russian ethnic population. While assertions such as yours only enforce the usual paradigms to people unfamiliar with sitaution, making it seem as if it is the usual Government incompetence and media bias we all love to rant about sometimes. P.s. if actually believe that this is some kind of grand argument, then lets agree to disagree on whatever it is, because we are way past the futilism mark in here, and I really don't care about it, no more than I care if the "high profile" report, what his name, that was abducted was treated according to the Geneva convention or not, but about the great picture of how it refelcts on general attitudes of the rebels toward comprise and negation, as well as their practices. (Like the recent assassination of the regional governor who supported all Ukrainian unity)

 

Or he just found a nice hotel, stayed there for a couple of days and presto he was kidnapped. I really don't see the point of hauling in one reporter, of which I haven't even heard about before and beating him (while not leaving a mark on him) to teach him a lesson. A much more likely scenario is to put a bullet in his head and bury him in a ditch and let him serve as a warning to the others. My point is, even if this happened it doesn't strike me as something the FSB(or any other Russian agency) would do, but as an initiative of a man who leader of the group in the area, or something similar, but even that is farfetched to me and I think he is just lying his ass off.

"lying his ass off"? well DC guy, if you look at the linked interview couple of page back, you can see that speaker who recently provided the convent proof that red sector was behind a deadly shooting, couple of hours after the shooting, and his plea to save the region from so called western fascist was broadcasted all across Russia. Is the same speaker that confirmed that the reporter was held but fed and treated well in his detention(although before that he claimed that the reporter was just making an investigative piece on the SBU building, despite eye witness evidence that he was abducted, again the gaul).

 

 

 

OT: I usually don't apologist for my poor English, but I had connection problems with the open WiFi at work which I am using using for this, and lately it has been really fickle, so I have been trying to crunch response even faster than usual, which produced rather poor results even to my eyes, with ridicules things I only notice after the fact, so sorry about that.

Edited April 30, 2014 by Mor

[Cultist]

Pet movements, interesting choice of words, let me guess Pet movements with their "capitalist/democratic" experiments? Anyway I see Russia meddling which include a chain of intervention involving troops and agreesive media propaganda, attack on government and various economical sanctions to force Ukraine in line, what exactly you think that USA and or EU has done along those lines (not the usual stuff, that everyone is doing, including Russia)

When you have parties waving USA, Russian or EU flags it's pretty obvious whom they are sponsored and supported by. Russia is in her own right - they provided discounts,trade privileges and other neat things in exchange for cooperation. With Ukraine's new government openly anti-russian, there's no reason to keep that privileges. All this talk about evil russians imposing economic punishment is a nice for propaganda, but people forget, that Ukraine is not going to pay more than EU members - they are going to pay just like other EU members. They just can't believe they lost those privileges and have to pay the full price.

Both Russia, EU and USA used agressive propaganda and money support of their pet parties. The difference is that after western sponsored uprising succeeded, Russia responded with their own sponsored uprising.

Edited April 30, 2014 by Cultist

[Zoraptor]

He's actually from a post soviet country, iirc.

 

Mor, bro, you always go to great pains to say that western media is inherently better. It isn't, because freedom of the press means nothing at all practical for the end user if the freedom is not actually used. Willingly parroting government propaganda is actually worse than parroting propaganda because you're forced to, precisely because you aren't forced to and have an at least implied duty towards balance and fairness. In equally practical terms, western media is not monolithic so you do get some who question what they are fed, and the quality is also variable depending on which issue is being examined, but on the Ukrainian issues the western media's coverage has been- in general- a rubbish laden litany of circular sourcing, acritical repeating of governmental releases and cold war style "Russian's are coming" jingoism. Nobody should be surprised that there is unrest in the east, because the west's 'democratic' revolution unseated the actually democratically elected leader they elected. The western media though, appears baffled almost to a man that it is happening because they've convinced themselves that everyone in Ukraine supported Maidan or at very least don't care enough to take action. I'm not particularly keen on getting into a pointless argument about a wholly subjective issue of which is worse with someone whose typical response to contrary views has been to accuse people of being Russian, paid shills, or conspiracy nuts though*. If it makes you feel better, simply describing both russian and western media as bad does not actually mean they're directly equivalent and equally bad, as you seem to think. It just means that neither is good.

 

*I rather suspect a lot of that comes from being right about the predictions of the consequences of Maidan, typically the more correct you are the less cogent and more ad hominem the rebuttals become because that is all that is left. Pretty much every single prediction made by the 'conspiracy theorists' has come true- from the Russians not standing still and just taking it, to the IMF/WB/EU imposing strict austerity with gas prices etc rising and pensions collapsing, to the Ukrainian army being at very best unreliable; to the new government making stupid triumphalist decisions to appeal to its support base whatever was best for the country and the desperately needed reconciliation, handing power to their tame oligarchs, being unable to control their nationalist defence groups, and the easterners not just taking the westerners' putsch sitting down. That's an exceptionally good hit rate for people detached from reality, indeed the pro Maidan types with their road to the EU paved with gold, frankensense and myrrh have had a somewhat worse strike rate.

Edited April 30, 2014 by Zoraptor

[Volourn]

"A police officer has a gun, when he tells you not to park by a hydrant or else you will get fined is that a threat of violence? Of course it isn't."

\

Yes, it is. What do you think he's going to do/what do you think will happen if you refuse his order? Violence is gonna happen. Duh. By its very nature the police use the threat of violence to get what they want. When push comes to shove they will kill you, injure you, destroy you 'to win' if for any reason but to prove a points. Cops are hired guns. Period.

 

This is fact.

[obyknven]

Lol, Murican diplomatic madskilz.

http://youtu.be/qIvoq2oZZuU

 

<clip removed>

 

Other news. Russia is cool.

Edited May 1, 2014 by Gorth
removed youtube video with uncencored title

[Gorgon]

I like the way the correspondent presents an opinion that EU emembership would have been detrimental to Ukraine as fact. They aren't trying very hard to sound impartial anymore. I honestly think I can see a change from just a year ago.

[obyknven]

I like the way the correspondent presents an opinion that EU emembership would have been detrimental to Ukraine as fact. They aren't trying very hard to sound impartial anymore. I honestly think I can see a change from just a year ago.

Citizens of many EU members think same thing about  own coutries.

[Gorgon]

Just sayin', If I had to chose between aligning myself to a 4 billion economy obsessed with a long gone past or a 20 billion economy I know what I would chose.

[Gorgon]

I tried to find some numbers for GNP of the EU vs Russia, only got part of the way. Anyway the Russian economy is tiny compared and too dependent on natural resources.

 

http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia

[Drowsy Emperor]

Just sayin', If I had to chose between aligning myself to a 4 billion economy obsessed with a long gone past or a 20 billion economy I know what I would chose.

 

That's a rather simplistic view of things. Most of the goods Ukraine produces can only be sold in Russia, there is no other market for them. The EU cannot offer energy to Ukraine at the same prices as Russia. Ukraine will not become an EU member in the foreseeable future, therefore it cannot enjoy the same privileges as other countries.

 

What is the EU going to offer Ukraine? Security? Free lunch? We're not children here, we all know that "aid packages" are loans for buying time, political influence and really more about saving foreign interests that stand to lose a lot more than Ukraine if it defaults. And apart from borrowed time, what?

 

Russia can offer them a market, energy and with the CIS security guarantees. Its not going to make  a wonderland out of Ukraine but the alternative is the worse poverty than they're in now, as the good energy deals come to an end and Ukrainian exports dry up.

[Agiel]

I like the way the correspondent presents an opinion that EU emembership would have been detrimental to Ukraine as fact. They aren't trying very hard to sound impartial anymore. I honestly think I can see a change from just a year ago.

 

I think it's fair to say that Ukrainian alignment with the EU and likely IMF bailouts would be like a root canal or some other medical surgery performed without anesthesia: a process that's long and painful, but the patient would eventually emerge better for it. And I've talked with some actual Ukrainians and they universally understand even if they were to magically join the EU tomorrow night it wouldn't fix things right then and there and that things would stay bad (if not get worse) before they got better. The EU may be undergoing one of its greatest trials and tribulations yet, but its future is brighter than Russia if it stays its current course.

[213374U]

 

I like the way the correspondent presents an opinion that EU emembership would have been detrimental to Ukraine as fact. They aren't trying very hard to sound impartial anymore. I honestly think I can see a change from just a year ago.

 

I think it's fair to say that Ukrainian alignment with the EU and likely IMF bailouts would be like a root canal or some other medical surgery performed without anesthesia: a process that's long and painful, but the patient would eventually emerge better for it. And I've talked with some actual Ukrainians and they universally understand even if they were to magically join the EU tomorrow night it wouldn't fix things right then and there and that things would stay bad (if not get worse) before they got better. The EU may be undergoing one of its greatest trials and tribulations yet, but its future is brighter than Russia if it stays its current course.

 

I asked this in previous iterations of this thread, and have yet to receive a concrete answer that is supported by the data we have.

 

How exactly would Ukraine and the average Ukrainian benefit from a closer alignment to the EU? Why is this "long and painful" process necessary, and precisely what does "better" mean in this context? Better compared to what, at any rate? Can we see some actual figures instead of simply rehashing the same neoliberal articles of faith?

[Drowsy Emperor]

Its curious how pervasive the neoliberal economic dogma is considering its been proven wrong and led to disastrous results in every place the MMF etc. have enforced it. The only thing its succeeded in is creating more impoverished and unemployed people everywhere, while the elites grew fat with foreign currency. Which they stored in foreign banks making them easy to blackmail and control and utterly useless to their respective nation state.

 

The future of the EU is  debatable. Spain and Italy are in serious economic trouble and the EU barely got its act together to bail out Greece. And Greece is small compared to the other two. The way they scratched and clawed (and yet barely agreed in the end) not to let Greece default speaks volumes on how tenuous EU stability is, if it cannot allow even one shock to the system lest the whole house of cards come crashing down.

[Zoraptor]

I tried to find some numbers for GNP of the EU vs Russia, only got part of the way. Anyway the Russian economy is tiny compared and too dependent on natural resources.

 

That's certainly true, though GNP arguments ultimately end up with it being better for everyone to join the EU, since it is the largest (at least theoretically integrated) economic bloc on the planet, if you took raw and literal national GNP everyone would be petitioning to join the US, or China in a few years. But it is not that simple, joining the EU has costs as well as benefits and it is the balance of those that determines it rather than a simplistic measure like GNP or even GDP/c. And, of course, there's no realistic prospect of Ukraine actually joining the EU in the short to medium term, it would just be an association agreement with most of the drawbacks but few of the benefits of full membership. As it is they saddle themselves with having their economy run from Geneva with the sole aim of paying back creditors. Though the most ironic part is that the biggest creditor is Russia, who may end up with both the best bits of Ukraine and the rest of the country still paying back loans to Russia, in penury.

 

And, of course, Ukraine could have got both the best of both worlds if not for EU intransigence, ie both the agreement with the EU and with Russia since Russia was amenable, it was the EU that vetoed it and decided to try using the issue to flip the government instead. In retrospect they would have been far better off not listening to the US and accepting that deal.

[BruceVC]

"

Its curious how pervasive the neoliberal economic dogma is considering its been proven wrong and led to disastrous results in every place the MMF etc. have enforced it. The only thing its succeeded in is creating more impoverished and unemployed people everywhere, while the elites grew fat with foreign currency. Which they stored in foreign banks making them easy to blackmail and control and utterly useless to their respective nation state.

 

The future of the EU is  debatable. Spain and Italy are in serious economic trouble and the EU barely got its act together to bail out Greece. And Greece is small compared to the other two. The way they scratched and clawed (and yet barely agreed in the end) not to let Greece default speaks volumes on how tenuous EU stability is, if it cannot allow even one shock to the system lest the whole house of cards come crashing down.

 

Can you explain what you mean  by "neoliberal economic dogma"

 

I hope its not another " Capitalism is bad, look at the 2008  financial crisis" nonsense. I hear this in South Africa from certain circles

[Hassat Hunter]

So with Kiev on the warpath, any guesses how long it takes before Russia intervenes?

It seems pretty inevitable now with this aggression...

[Sarex]

It would need to be a clear sing of aggression from the Kiev government for Russia to make a clear response. The guys in Kiev might just be stupid enough to give it to them.

[Mor]

How exactly would Ukraine and the average Ukrainian benefit from a closer alignment to the EU? Why is this "long and painful" process necessary, and precisely what does "better" mean in this context? Better compared to what, at any rate? Can we see some actual figures instead of simply rehashing the same neoliberal articles of faith?

iirc You can go to the IMF site there is a really long and detailed PDF explaining everything. Now same question with Russia..