North Korea attacks and sinks South Korean ship, killing 46 people

[Calax]

Meanwhile, I suppose the South Koreans are supposed to suffer in silence while the North torpedos it's navy one ship at a time. Great plan!

A comparable military response would end in war and the North holds the population of Seoul hostage. The North boasts an estimated 13000 artillery pieces, the largest concentration anywhere in the world, already dug in and pointing at the South's cities. There is no effective counter against such a threat against the civilian population. The South would win with their American allies but the cost would be incalculable.

 

This is where the North's supreme confidence comes from. They know that starting a war is unthinkable for the South since its leaders are obliged to actually care what happens to its citizens.

I suppose this means that if they wanted to trigger the war they'd have to coordinate a strike that removes the arty from day one...

[Thorton_AP]

How legit is the 13,000 number?

[Gorgon]

From Walter Sharpe, the US commander in S. Korea, can't find the link now. Anyway there are bound to other sources, just do a search.

[Thorton_AP]

I did. I had no luck.

 

 

Found it:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CN...d2962680917.101

 

 

To be fair, it's 13,000 along the "border." (I assume that means the border of the DMZ).

Edited May 27, 2010 by Thorton_AP

[Walsingham]

Because it was a lot more stable. instability breeds discontent, which creates terrorism and extremism. Crazy arab dictators attacking each other is nothing new, it existed before saddam and it will exist after him. A huge country without stable government or agenda is a perfect environment for growing terrorist cells.

 

An unstable country certainly does breed terror. But if you think Saddam's Iraq was stable you're insane. It was finely poised instability. All these ethnic tensions, and bloody lunatics didn't drop out of a rainbow the day after we won the war. His stalinist regime was predicated on healthgiving doses of random ultraviolence and paranoiac corruption.

 

As for your comment about crazy arab dictators, I put it to you again that this is mere racism. I refuse to believe there is something intrinsic beating in the heart of arabs which enjoys being oppressed and tortured*, and will never engage with freedom. A conviction that is underpinned rather than undermined by the high levels of peaceful political engagement in Iraq.

 

 

 

*Although if there were it might helpfully be explained to the various mentalists in the US administration who insist on torturing suspects.

[Humodour]

China is preparing to acknowledge that North Korea attacked South Korea. If that does happens, China will end up backing sanctions against North Korea. If that happens, North Korea's entire economy will collapse overnight as China & South Korea comprise 80% of international trade with NK and 35% of GDP. There would be not economy left to even be in a depression. If that happened, the North Korean people would revolt.

 

CHINA could be preparing for a radical policy shift to harden its stance against North Korea by accepting the evidence that the isolated Stalinist state sank the South Korean naval corvette the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors.

 

The US is ratcheting up pressure on China and Russia to back a response against North Korea by the UN Security Council after South Korea made a formal complaint to the multilateral body.

 

"We will stand with you in this difficult hour, and we stand with you always," US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in Seoul this week.

 

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao flies to South Korea today amid fears in China the situation is edging towards the precipice.

 

Reports have emerged from the US that Mr Wen is preparing to voice regret over the death of the sailors and agree that the North torpedoed the South's ship - but it remains unclear whether China will back a Security Council resolution against its communist neighbour.

 

 

 

"There is undeniable solid evidence presented by South Korea to support the accusation against the North: this puts China into an embarrassed situation again," said Liu Ning, a former policy adviser and a leading academic on East Asian affairs.

 

"However, China will not have a clear expression of its attitude, as demanded by South Korea and Japan.

 

"China will continue to be a mediator and will not peel off North Korea's mask and completely expose its ally, since China is still in an alliance with North Korea struck after the Korean War."

 

It has been rumoured China has threatened to quit the treaty while North Korea has counter-threatened with nuclear weapons development and completely quitting six-party talks.

 

There have also been reports of divisions in Beijing between civilian leaders, who are increasingly frustrated with Pyongyang, and China's military, which has closer ties to North Korea.

 

There has been rising anger among Chinese policymakers and academics at the North's wanton behaviour in recent years as it has continued to develop nuclear weapons and failed to return to the six-party talks.

 

A senior Chinese expert on Korean peninsula affairs and the Cold War, who wants to remain anonymous, told The Australian "China is doing nothing and allows North Korea to do whatever it wants".

 

"It's not that there is nothing China can do about it, but that China doesn't want to do anything," he said.

 

"North Korea cannot survive on it's own but it can always get economic aid (from China).

 

"Nobody knows how China's diplomatic policy is made."

 

Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua said this week "an international probe blamed Pyongyang for the fatal sinking of a South Korean warship in late March".

 

Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Communist Party's Central Party School - one of the government's main think tanks - told The Australian: "China has realised that there is severe danger of war breaking out on the peninsula.

 

"Both North and South Korea are pushing themselves to the very edge where they leave no room for compromise.

 

"China has realised that there is a high possibility that the situation is completely out of control."

 

Mr Lui said China was in a deadlock with North Korea and was looking for the next step to take.

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world...o-1225872263880

[Gorgon]

the North Korean people would revolt.

 

 

The last time around they just died en masse of starvation though. Why is this time different ?

[Humodour]

the North Korean people would revolt.

 

 

The last time around they just died en masse of starvation though. Why is this time different ?

 

Because last time they still had an 'economy', just a really **** one (similar to what they have now).

[Wrath of Dagon]

China realizes they have to do something to diffuse the situation before it gets out of hand. But the Chinese government itself may be split as that article points out.

[Humodour]

China realizes they have to do something to diffuse the situation before it gets out of hand. But the Chinese government itself may be split as that article points out.

 

The Chinese military is not part of the ruling elite. Though it's interesting that there's a rift between the two arms of the beast.

[Moose]

I'd just like to point out that Iran is neither Arabic nor Middle Eastern. They are Persian and Asian respectively.

 

Iran being part of the middle east, would it not be accurate to call them middle eastern?

[Enoch]

I'd just like to point out that Iran is neither Arabic nor Middle Eastern. They are Persian and Asian respectively.

 

Iran being part of the middle east, would it not be accurate to call them middle eastern?

Geographically, Iran always looked more like part of the core of Asia to me, as the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea do seem to clearly set out a space of land between them that is somewhat separate from the surrounding continents.

 

But the source of the term "Middle East" is basically a Euro-centric label for the lands that you had to cross if you were travelling from the Mediterranean to the "Far East." In that vein, the line between the two is probably somewhere in modern-day Iran. And, much like "Far East" or "Oriental," it's probably not the most polite of labels any more. Culturally, as with anywhere else, Iran has some distinctive cultural elements, and some ways in which it is similar to its neighbors (both with the Mesopotamian and Arabic peoples to the West and with the people of the various 'Stans to the East and North). "Persian" probably is the best label to use.

[Wrath of Dagon]

China realizes they have to do something to diffuse the situation before it gets out of hand. But the Chinese government itself may be split as that article points out.

 

The Chinese military is not part of the ruling elite. Though it's interesting that there's a rift between the two arms of the beast.

I'm not sure how to define the ruling elite, but the military has a powerful influence, and even owns many enterprises in China.

 

As far as Middle East, I would say Iran is part of it but Afghanistan is not. Egypt is also part of the Middle East, despite not being part of the Arabian peninsula.

[Humodour]

Last night I had me a dream son

The end of the world could be seen

No sign of life could I feel son

Nothing was what it had been

 

Black as the night, life out of sight

You can't imagine the scene

[lord of flies]

Sanctions have never worked at regime change, only at strangling the infants of an entire people. They will not this time either, Krezack.

[Volourn]

Then what works? Outright war does.. do you want that?

[~Di]

Meanwhile, I suppose the South Koreans are supposed to suffer in silence while the North torpedos it's navy one ship at a time. Great plan!

A comparable military response would end in war and the North holds the population of Seoul hostage. The North boasts an estimated 13000 artillery pieces, the largest concentration anywhere in the world, already dug in and pointing at the South's cities. There is no effective counter against such a threat against the civilian population. The South would win with their American allies but the cost would be incalculable.

 

This is where the North's supreme confidence comes from. They know that starting a war is unthinkable for the South since its leaders are obliged to actually care what happens to its citizens.

 

I understand what you're saying. However, the South simply cannot allow its fleet to be destroyed without firing a shot. It must defend itself at some point.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Sanctions worked in South Africa.

[lord of flies]

Sanctions worked in South Africa.

Yeah, right. That's why apartheid ended.

[Walsingham]

Sanctions worked in South Africa.

Yeah, right. That's why apartheid ended.

 

Er... much as I hate to contradict the learned professor, they had a massive impact. Because unlike most despotic regimes apartheid was sustained by a limited democracy. That democracy was wide enough that the people who made decisions got hurt by the buckshot of sanctions and eventually they decided they disliked the sanctions more than they disliked ending apartheid. Win for sanctions.

 

The problem with sanctions in most cases is that the regime is not the people getting hurt by the sanctions. In fact hurting the regular people is what the regime is generally doing in the first place. As would be the case here.

 

For this reason I suggest we appoint LoF as Obsidian ambassador to North Korea. I'm sure his world class understanding of marxism-leninism-maoism will be enough to convince them of the error of their ways.

[Orogun01]

As much as I hate myself for agreeing with LoF. How do you make North Korea worse?

The sanctions will hurt the people more than Kim Jong, it's more likely that they will worsen the situation rather than help the problem of NK dictatorship. I don't know how strong Kim's hold over the people is yet it doesn't seem to me that there is an alternative to conflict in this case.

[Walsingham]

As much as I hate myself for agreeing with LoF. How do you make North Korea worse?

The sanctions will hurt the people more than Kim Jong, it's more likely that they will worsen the situation rather than help the problem of NK dictatorship. I don't know how strong Kim's hold over the people is yet it doesn't seem to me that there is an alternative to conflict in this case.

 

I should have been more clear. My point is precisely yours. Applying samctions may simply weaken 'his' people further, and provide yet more excuses for the failures of his state. I simply got distracted by the professor's continued rambling about things he knows nothing about. He probably wasn't even out of short pants when apartheid ended.

[Moose]

At the end of the day it should be up to South Korea. I think they're perfectly entitled to give North Korea a strong telling off with bombs.

[Oblarg]

At the end of the day it should be up to South Korea. I think they're perfectly entitled to give North Korea a strong telling off with bombs.

 

That would be a pretty stupid thing to do, though.

[Monte Carlo]

My advice to the Pentagon is, this time, have a plan for what you're going to do after you pull all the statues of Kim Il Sung down.

 

Let's get the Chinese on board and pulverize the N. Korean regime, quickly, with as little collateral damage as possible. I suspect that North Korea is the one place where the population really will, unlike Iraq, welcome the S. Korean and US armoured columns trundling beyond the 38th parallel.

Edited May 28, 2010 by Monte Carlo