Syrian civil war

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Interesting to see where this one goes (the war)... Israel and Turkey has both ganged up on Syria by the looks of it. IDF killing Iranian backed militia leaders and infrastructure, Turkey backing the HTS, because a Taliban style government in Baghdad gives an old Islamist like Erdogan wet dreams, hence the Turkish army providing safe places and logistical support for HTS. I wouldn't be surprised if some western leaders also were cheering for HTS, despite being acknowledge and classified as a terrorist organization...

The Syrian people seems to be less enthusiastic though, and the opposition to Assad... the Syrian people are "secular" by Middle Eastern standards and Assad seems to be the lesser of two evils (according to the BBC)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgpdpgz4kdo

"It is too soon to write the Assad regime off. It has a core of genuine support. Some Syrians see it as the least bad option – better than the jihadists who came to dominate the rebellion. But if other anti-Assad groups – and there are many – rise up, his regime will once again be in mortal danger."

I don't see the Kurdish forces allying themselves with Erdogans goons either, leaving out probably the second strongest faction (after the regular Turkish army currently camped inside Syrias borders, because internationally recognized borders only counts when its convenient for the powers that be, otherwise to be ignored)

 

I wonder how the Israeli people are feeling about helping an Islamist terror group to power in Syria?

Its interesting and complicated whats happening in Syria and its influenced by several different geopolitical realities and history

But we also know how the term   terrorist group gets defined but its selective around how people accept it. Hamas is designated a terrorist group by the US and I consider them a terrorist group but lots of people opposed to Israel for different reasons consider Hamas freedom fighters who are fighting against an oppressive and "Apartheid" Israel 

And then the incorrect comparison gets  used with the real struggle against Apartheid in South Africa and a  legitimate argument gets made similar to " was the ANC and Mandela really terrorists " 

For me Mandela was a terrorist in the technical definition of terrorism which is using violence to achieve a political change but because the Apartheid state was never a legitimate government, it didnt represent all citizens in the country, I dont consider him a terrorist and the ANC did fight against an oppressive and unsustainable type of government 

Syria is more complicated but I try to keep it simple

Assad had a choice when the early Arab Spring protests started, he could have avoided the war by allowing inclusion and more  political and economic representation of all Syrians and allowing something as simple as a free and fair election . As your  link mentions 

" Pedersen added that there had been "a collective failure to bring about a genuine political process" to implement UN Security Council resolution 2254, which was passed in 2015. That laid out a roadmap for peace, with the principle in the text that “the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria”.

The objective was a future shaped by free elections and a new constitution. But that meant Assad and his family giving up a country that they treated for years as their personal fief. More than half a million dead attest to their determination not to let that happen." 

But he refused and decided to stay in power and unleash the full might of his military on his citizens and the civil war started

Then Iran, Russia and Hezbollah intervened and kept him power by helping to defeat the rebels\insurgency\militants\extremists

But he could have avoided all of this 

And yet he has failed to change much in Syria both politically or economically since the civil war ended in most parts of country 

He is truly a reprehensible leader who only cares about one thing, staying in power at the expense of whats best for his country so this latest uprising was almost guaranteed 

I dont think there is an  alliance between Israel and Turkey\rebels  around this latest insurrection but I do think the rebels were motivated by what has happened since 7 October where Israel has vastly weakened and eroded Iran and Hezbollah in the region and they taking advantage of that. Russia is also deeply mired militarily in Ukraine so there additional support is questionable 

Israel's current biggest  security concern would be Iran and its proxies and since Assad is considered a staunch ally of Iran they would support him being overthrown 

And this calculus would be because of 7 October which has obviously had a huge influence around Israel geopolitical views in the ME 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HoonDing]

Another small step towards the restoration of the Ottoman Empire

[Lexx]

I just remembered that a few years ago I've read Under the Wire by Paul Conroy. It tells the story of him and Marie Colvin (war journalists) in Homs, back when Syrian government and Russia were cracking down on the city. What they describe is pretty much the same that happened in Ukraine -- just relentless artillery fire, leveling the city meter by meter every day until everything is flattened. This, honestly, is really the only thing that Russia is capable of doing. Everything else in their military is useless. Take away the artillery and they are incapable of doing anything. And as we can see now, the only thing holding Assad's regime up was the Russian support. It's almost funny to see how fast it crumbles- if it just wouldn't be for all the civilian suffering at the same time.

Edited December 6 by Lexx

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

I just remembered that a few years ago I've read Under the Wire by Paul Conroy. It tells the story of him and Marie Colvin (war journalists) in Homs, back when Syrian government and Russia were cracking down on the city. What they describe is pretty much the same that happened in Ukraine -- just relentless artillery fire, leveling the city meter by meter every day until everything is flattened. This, honestly, is really the only thing that Russia is capable of doing. Everything else in their military is useless. Take away the artillery and they are incapable of doing anything. And as we can see now, the only thing holding Assad's regime up was the Russian support. It's almost funny to see how fast it crumbles- if it just wouldn't be for all the civilian suffering at the same time.

Yes the Russians made a big difference by bombing Aleppo  and other cities to the ground from miles up in the air or using artillery 

The Russians are very effective at airpower and launching missiles at civilian infrastructure and they very good at cannon-fodder and meatgrinder strategies to gain ground

But dont underestimate the ground troops contribution that both Iran and Hezbollah provided in the last Syrian  war, they ended up playing a huge part in the land offensive once Aleppo had been bombed back to the stone age

And thats whats lacking in this latest offensive from Assad's perspective. The Russians will still bomb but it remains to see how much Iran and Hezbollah can change the tide 

 

 

[Malcador]

Well SAA seem all but useless, Iran may not see the point in putting good money after bad.  HTS leader went on CNN, said the right things.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html

Wonder when Israel will annex, sorry Blue Team doesn't do that, I mean increase their security zone

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Well SAA seem all but useless, Iran may not see the point in putting good money after bad.  HTS leader went on CNN, said the right things.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/06/middleeast/syria-rebel-forces-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-al-jolani-intl-latam/index.html

Wonder when Israel will annex, sorry Blue Team doesn't do that, I mean increase their security zone

Thats a reassuring interview and I like what he is saying 

"Inside rebel-controlled territory in Syria, it’s clear he operates less like a wanted man and more like a politician. After forces loyal to him took control of Aleppo, he made a public appearance in the city’s historic citadel.

Jolani says he has gone through episodes of transformation through the years. “A person in their twenties will have a different personality than someone in their thirties or forties, and certainly someone in their fifties. This is human nature.

Jolani’s interview with CNN on Thursday was an about-face from the hardline rhetoric that he used during his first-ever televised interview in 2013, when he was interviewed by Al Jazeera with his face in shadow. At the time, his remarks were focused on furthering al Qaeda’s branch in Syria.

On Thursday, Jolani projected a different vision for the war-torn country. In a sign of his attempted rebranding, he also publicly used his real name for the first time – Ahmed al-Sharaa – instead of the nom de guerre by which he is widely known. " 

They clearly want understandable Western recognition and to change the narrative  they are a  terrorist organisation

Im cautiously optimistic and I hope they continue on this path of wanting to be seen as legitimate  

 

 

[Zoraptor]

16 hours ago, Gorth said:

I don't see the Kurdish forces allying themselves with Erdogans goons either, leaving out probably the second strongest faction (after the regular Turkish army currently camped inside Syrias borders, because internationally recognized borders only counts when its convenient for the powers that be, otherwise to be ignored)

This is an absolute disaster for the Kurds, even more so than for the Christians, Alawites, Shia etc. As soon as Trump gets in the US troops- also illegally occupying Syria- will go from the Turkish border and that will be that; more peaceful western backed ethnic cleansing that people will contort themselves into knots convincing themselves is... well actually, since it's Trump a lot will probably decide it is ethnic cleansing this time.

For anyone wondering, Erdogan's plan is Misak-i-Milli. That is, essentially, the Turkish claims on Syria and Iraq down to Aleppo and Mosul, southern Georgia, eastern Greece and the Aegean Islands, Armenia, Cyprus. They already got Iskanderiya in one of the most dodgy referendums every held, expect more in similar circumstances.

Quote

I wonder how the Israeli people are feeling about helping an Islamist terror group to power in Syria?

They had a cadet branch of ISIS (Jaish Khalid ibn al Walid) on their border up until 2018, and gave that active support. Israel loves radical Islamists killing whoever they like as it gives their radical Judaists cover for killing whoever they want. Peas in a pod.

Also see Israel's role in founding and fostering Hamas.

As for the people... well, they keep on voting for the Ben-Gvir's, Bezazel Smotrich's and Netanyahu's of the world. If people blame Palestinians for Hamas when their last election was 17 years ago you have to blame Israel for constantly electing the same crappy people and that is on the Israeli voters and public.

10 hours ago, Lexx said:

I just remembered that a few years ago I've read Under the Wire by Paul Conroy. It tells the story of him and Marie Colvin (war journalists) in Homs, back when Syrian government and Russia were cracking down on the city.

You're either misremembering or the author is writing fiction*.

The Russian intervention started in Sept 2015.

The siege of Homs ended more than a year earlier.

Marie Colvin died in, well, 2012.

*may well be, Marie Colvin got killed by a 'targeted' strike according to western accusations. Which would mean Syria used precision attacks precisely three times in the war. Once to kill 28 Ahrar ash Sham commanders, once to kill Zahran Alloush, head of Jaish al Islam and Saudi Arabia's proxy in Damascus. And third, to, uh, kill two French/ American journalists besieged in Homs.

Edited December 6 by Zoraptor

[BruceVC]

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-832323

Its look like Iran  has started evacuating its personnel from  Syria

 "The report also cited prominent Iranian analyst Mehdi Rahmati, who claimed that Syria's army doesn't want to fight, and that the Islamic Republic doesn't want to fight as "advisory and support" despite their previous backing and military support to Assad. He also said that Syria is unmanageable for the Islamic Republic - even through military operations. Iran has used Syria as a I route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in the country's west. "

 

I would find it strange if Iran gave up on Assad considering  the significant importance Iranian proxies play in the region for Iran but Iran also has a much bigger concern, after 7 October war with Israel is more likely than ever so  the current Iranian government would be considering its own survival and they wouldnt want to dilute there military too much to help the failed government of Assad 

 

 

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 12/6/2024 at 9:38 AM, Lexx said:

I just remembered that a few years ago I've read Under the Wire by Paul Conroy. It tells the story of him and Marie Colvin (war journalists) in Homs, back when Syrian government and Russia were cracking down on the city. What they describe is pretty much the same that happened in Ukraine -- just relentless artillery fire, leveling the city meter by meter every day until everything is flattened. This, honestly, is really the only thing that Russia is capable of doing. Everything else in their military is useless. Take away the artillery and they are incapable of doing anything. And as we can see now, the only thing holding Assad's regime up was the Russian support. It's almost funny to see how fast it crumbles- if it just wouldn't be for all the civilian suffering at the same time.

As one of the classics said. Russia is ISIS, but with an air force. No wonder, that Syrians are cheering for radical islamists, as they are convinced, that it will be no worse than under Russian colonial boot. 

[Malcador]

Strange for Russia to be so dominant over Syrians with the small force they have. 

Race for Damascus is on. Wonder if Assad is still in the country

[Elerond]

Assad's forces have been fighting now about 12 years, and they have not see anything getting better. Publicized intelligence reports even claim that Assad has failed multiple time to pay them, which has destroyed the moral of the troops and made corruption rampant.

And now when Russia, Iran and Hizbollah have their own problems elsewhere Assad just does not have resources to get his troops to fight, so most likely Assad's reign will come to the end soon. But it may not mean much as it isn't like he has had control over Syria anyway.

[rjshae]

With a pro-Putin Presidency in the bag, Russia may feel free to slow their operations in the Ukraine and move forces to Syria. Putin won't want to lose that ally.

[ComradeYellow]

Rebels achieving the element of surprise and scoring some early victories =/= Syrian government about to be toppled.  Just look at the maps, SDF still controls most of Syria and will regroup.  Like Ukraine, people seem to just jump to conclusions early on before it is over with.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Strange for Russia to be so dominant over Syrians with the small force they have. 

Race for Damascus is on. Wonder if Assad is still in the country

Two private jets have left Damascus in the last hour or two.

 

 

Quote

Lavrov: "We firmly reaffirm our commitment to Syria's territorial integrity and sovereignty. We call for the immediate cessation of hostilities and the initiation of dialogue between the government and legitimate opposition forces."

Seems like, they are already preparing to beg to keep their naval base. In the morning they were terrorist, in the evening they are legitimate opposition forces. 

The present changes so quickly, that they do not know, what will happen yesterday

 

[HoonDing]

I'm sure the populace will fare much better under the greater evil.

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, HoonDing said:

I'm sure the populace will fare much better under the greater evil.

Hmm, hard to imagine greater evil than Snow ISIS and butcher of Damascus collaborating at Sednayah Prison.

 

The remaining SAA troops at Damascus allegedly struck a deal with Rebels. Which pretty much means Damascus has surrendered. Seems like ComradeYellow’s prediction aged faster than a bottle of milk during the hottest summer day in Kuwaiti’s desert

[Malcador]

7 hours ago, HoonDing said:

I'm sure the populace will fare much better under the greater evil.

Well, not like anyone will care, really. Isn't a relatively civilized place, to reference D'Agata

[Gorth]

Looks like the Syrian population doesn't have quite the same faith in CNN interviews than some do...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy7kk30rdjpo

(skipping parts where Syrian army representatives tries to pull an Iraqi information minister stunt about there being no rebel troops here)

"More than 800 people are estimated to have been killed in the fighting, according to the SOHR.

According to the UN, at least 370,000 people have been displaced so far - with many, including Alawites, fleeing the rebels' approach.

The UN said the fighting was also "worsening an already horrific situation for civilians in the north of the country"

From a different BBC article, that 800 number included 111 civilians, the majority being combatants. And not to diminish the value of human lives, 800 deaths is not a lot compared to first time around. To me it indicates more running than fighting?

 

Edit: I would not be surprised if civilian casualties starts spiking after HTS has taken full control. Lots of old scores to settle. Alawites to exterminate, Kurds to genocide out of existence (on behest of their Turkish overlords and backers), any which person first gets called "a witch!" by their neighbour to settle old scores etc... Could it spill over onto Iraq too? I'm sure the Yazidis would not be excited at the prospect.

[Zoraptor]

Yes, but it's bad for Russia, so time to celebrate.

Who even cares if it's also bad for us too* as well as the Syrian civilians we purport to care about.

Which, again, sums up the international attitude to Team Blue. They'll even cheer on al Qaeda.

*what's the old Polish joke? A polish guy finds a lamp and gets three wishes. First wish, for Poland to get invaded by the Mongols. Second wish, for Poland to get invaded by the Mongols. Third wish, you guessed it. Genie asks him why he hates his country so much. The Pole replies replies "I don't, but if they come here they come and go back through Russia"

Edited December 8 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

All over with now, SAA surrendered.  Kurds must be antsy.  As for Assad,  wonder where he'll end up, already have some OSINT people saying his plane was shot down

Edited December 8 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Yes, but it's bad for Russia, so time to celebrate.

Who even cares if it's also bad for us too* as well as the Syrian civilians we purport to care about.

Which, again, sums up the international attitude to Team Blue. They'll even cheer on al Qaeda.

*what's the old Polish joke? A polish guy finds a lamp and gets three wishes. First wish, for Poland to get invaded by the Mongols. Second wish, for Poland to get invaded by the Mongols. Third wish, you guessed it. Genie asks him why he hates his country so much. The Pole replies replies "I don't, but if they come here they come and go back through Russia"

Yes its a terrible and completely unexpected outcome

A failed state in the ME   propped up by Russia and Iran that didnt deliver on any political or  economic reforms to the majority of its citizens despite numerous commitments and promises  gets overthrown. What a surprise 

UNSC resolution 2254 was adopted by UNSC members way back in 2015

I watched an interview on Al-Jazeera last night with Lavrov and he claimed this was the resolution that Russia "supports " and  believes in and was the basis for the Astana talks 

"Within 18 months, free and fair elections would be held under U.N. supervision. The political transition would be Syrian-led.

The UN Resolution 2254 was invoked by Iran, Russia and Turkey as the legal basis for the political process required to solve the Syrian conflict, at the first round of the Astana Talks in January 2017 "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_2254

It sounds great to hear  Russia talk about supporting this  type  of UNSC resolution in Syria except when Assad did nothing over the last 5-6 years to create a new inclusive Constitution or have an election within Syria because he doesnt care and his only concern was  staying in  power

And Russia could have and should have much more to pressure Assad to deliver on this resolution. We dont know the future of Syria but Im more than happy to give a new  government a chance 

At the moment anything is better than Assad and the collapse of  the Syrian army and popular support for HTS from most Syrians is evidence of this 

 

 

 

 

 

[BruceVC]

24 minutes ago, Malcador said:

All over with now, SAA surrendered.  Kurds must be antsy.  As for Assad,  wonder where he'll end up, already have some OSINT people saying his plane was shot down

Probably end up in Iran?

[Gorth]

8 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

and popular support for HTS from most Syrians is evidence of this

I wouldn't call close to half a million people fleeing the HTS for "popular support". It looks like a replay of Taliban taking over Afghanistan with all their promises of respecting human rights, education for women etc. (HTS is nor more no less a terrorist group than Taliban is)

Edit: Expect Syria being in some kind of civil war the next 20 years with Turks fighting Kurds, HTS fighting moderate rebels in the south, where they aren't supported in the same way by Turkey, everyone kiling Alawites (just for old times sake) etc.

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Gorth said:

I wouldn't call close to half a million people fleeing the HTS for "popular support". It looks like a replay of Taliban taking over Afghanistan with all their promises of respecting human rights, education for women etc. (HTS is nor more no less a terrorist group than Taliban is)

Edit: Expect Syria being in some kind of civil war the next 20 years with Turks fighting Kurds, HTS fighting moderate rebels in the south, where they aren't supported in the same way by Turkey, everyone kiling Alawites (just for old times sake) etc.

Lets wait and see, based on everything I have seen on Al-Jazeera from  numerous Syrians and commentators there was complete frustration and lack of belief that Assad had any legitimacy especially since the last 5-6 years and how things in Syria have just got worse

This is evident  not just around  the collapse of his army, it is about what the citizens of the country and in exile think

If you have access to Al-Jazeera watch it for an hour or so to see what I mean

I think you underestimating just how unpopular Assad had become 

But you right, Syria  could become Afghanistan v.2

I am hoping it doesn't and the new government delivers on a better Syria for its citizens

 

Outside of that objective this leadership change is a massive blow mostly to Iran and weakens Russias influence in the ME but thats not  my main concern or interest

Millions of Syrians are living in refugee camps, I would like them to return home and the country to start being functional again 

Lots of work to be done 

 

 

[BruceVC]

14 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

Rebels achieving the element of surprise and scoring some early victories =/= Syrian government about to be toppled.  Just look at the maps, SDF still controls most of Syria and will regroup.  Like Ukraine, people seem to just jump to conclusions early on before it is over with.

Hows your maps  doing Comrade, is Aleppo still resisting