Ukraine Conflict - "History never looks like history when you are living through it."

[Malcador]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

CNN being pessimistic of late. Then again, guess this will scare up the will for the next wunderwaffen.  I think it's NASAMS now.

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

CNN being pessimistic of late. Then again, guess this will scare up the will for the next wunderwaffen.  I think it's NASAMS now.

Im so glad Im not the only one who watches CNN, they do a good job but like all news channels at times they are prone to hysteria and sometimes they are focus on stories that are a waste of time 

But overall they do a good job at covering most international events as accurately as possible 

[pmp10]

27 minutes ago, Malcador said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/politics/white-house-ukraine-projection/index.html

Quote

A congressional aide familiar with the deliberations told CNN that a smaller Ukrainian state is not inevitable. "Whether Ukraine can take back these territories is in large part, if not entirely, a function of how much support we give them," the aide said. He noted that Ukraine has formally asked the US for a minimum of 48 multiple launch rocket systems, but to date has only been promised eight from the Pentagon.

A roundabout way of saying it is inevitable. 
US likely knows best what it would take and so far weapon deliveries are around 10-30% of Ukrainian expectations.
I bet the decision of 'no' has already been made.

[Malcador]

 

[BruceVC]

50 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...n-madrid-01656443484?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo 

Another spectacular failure of Putins War. The invasion of Ukraine has increased NATO membership and added to the NATO border with Russia

@Elerond

Our lunch\dinner at Lappi is coming closer 

[Zoraptor]

8 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Are you serious in thinking that Ukraine's intention to join NATO is a provocation? Really? It is not up to Russia what Ukraine does with regards to NATO. That's entirely Ukraine's decision.

And if you think that Russia regards NATO as a threat, please stop kidding yourself. Russia's entire western front has been wide open and empty for months now, very easy for NATO to walk in. Of course NATO doesn't do that. It has never had any intention to do that. Russia knows it, this is why the west of the country was emptied. Only some Russia apologists may seriously think that Russia fears a NATO attack.

I'm not sure holding this argument with a Serb is going to work out well.

NATO has never attacked Russia because they will literally get nuked doing so and that hasn't changed. NATO would have won a conventional war at any time since the break up of the USSR, and quite possibly before that. Ultimately what keeps both sides from attacking the other is that their words are backed by nuclear weapons. OTOH, in 1919, when Russia didn't have nukes and was in a similar psoition...

NATO also cheerily ignored international law to invade nuke less Yugoslavia- and Libya, after Gaddafi gave up his wmds. Indeed, NATO has an interesting record of attacking Russian allies that lack nukes. NATO also has consistently abrogated agreements, and their main member has sequentially withdrawn from just about every arms control treaty at this point. Given that eminently provable record of bad faith any claims that NATO, say, won't base nukes in Ukraine is not worth the paper it would be written on*.

The really funny thing though is the first line given how absolutely desperate people are to get the North Atlantic treaty organisation purely defensively involved in... the Pacific, where China has aggressively placed their country. Oddly enough, the Solomon Islands deciding to sign a defence agreement with China is not entirely their decision to be made as to who they wish to associate with, in that case it's another sign of wanton Chinese aggression. You might have aggressive Chinese warships 1500km away from Brisbane. NATO forces otoh would be barely 100km away from Smolensk or Rostov, but purely defensively...

*take it as read that Russia is hardly squeaky clean either; but they also aren't trying to aggressively purely defensively incorporate Canada or Mexico into their alliance either. And whether or not that is objective truth, it's certainly the truth, as Russia sees it.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Zoraptor

[xzar_monty]

15 hours ago, Sarex said:

But it's obvious that it's the reality of the current world order. Just as the US, as the current leader of the world, doesn't allow things to go against its interests, be it to it allies or enemies (in my example Cuba) and on a global level, so do Russia and China enforce that (or try to) in their own back yard.

It's not their back yard. I'm sorry but your argument doesn't even begin to hold water.

Russia is currently the equivalent of a possessive relative, boyfriend or something who hasn't understood that other people are their own people and can do what they want. So it resorts to violence.

[xzar_monty]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I'm not sure holding this argument with a Serb is going to work out well.

Fair enough, the chances are indeed quite low, but I don't think I'm supposed to know the nationalities of the forum members.

Btw, as far as your own posts are concerned, the swiftness and regularity with which you bring up the manifold failures of the west (about which I am neither in denial nor ignorant) gives the impression of a fairly rabid but also subtler-than-usual pro-Russia activist. Whether this is the intention or not, I don't know.

Edited June 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[bugarup]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

*take it as read that Russia is hardly squeaky clean either; but they also aren't trying to aggressively purely defensively incorporate Canada or Mexico into their alliance either. And whether or not that is objective truth, it's certainly the truth, as Russia sees it.

Yeah, what Russia does instead is barges into its sovereign neighbour's territory with imperialistic delusions and scorched earth approach. Thing not exactly on the same level as "hypothetic alleged pressuring of its neighbours into presumed alliance", eh?

Sorry, but when I see gross understatements like "Russia is hardly squeaky clean either", it means it's time for the daily reminder of how much Russia sucks compared to the majority of planet Earth. 

Edited June 29, 2022 by bugarup
Double spaces trigger my OCD

[xzar_monty]

5 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Sorry, but when I see gross understatements like "Russia  is hardly squeaky clean either", it means it's time for the daily reminder of how much Russia sucks compared to the majority of planet Earth. 

Living close to Russia, I can attest that there is almost certainly no country that is worse living close to than Russia. There has never been a moment in history when it's been trustworthy.

I recently read an African commentator point out how good Russia is because it is not a former colonist power. This is true, it is not. It is a current colonist power, and very racist to boot, among all other failures that it has. Russia did not take part in the African slave trade, but anyone with an access to a map should be able to instantly see why, given how strongly the trade was a naval endeavour. This African commentator almost made me lose hope.

I reiterate the point that there is no significant movement into Russia. People don't want there. A fairly large number does want out, though.

Edited June 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[xzar_monty]

11 hours ago, Malcador said:

 

Given Turkey's dictatorial regime, there is no way the result of the negotiations could have been worded any other way. I.e. boastful, imprecise.

From what I have read about the documents, I don't see much extraction.

Edited June 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

NATO forces otoh would be barely 100km away from Smolensk or Rostov, but purely defensively...

NATO forces are already extremely close to Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula (with its nukes and other military stuff). This has been the case for quite a long while. Incidentally, Finland joining NATO will not change these distances except perhaps slightly in the case of St. Petersburg (not sure, won't check now).

All of this hasn't bothered Russia one bit.

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

It's not their back yard. I'm sorry but your argument doesn't even begin to hold water.

Russia is currently the equivalent of a possessive relative, boyfriend or something who hasn't understood that other people are their own people and can do what they want. So it resorts to violence.

Yeah... While we are on the subject of forum etiquette I hope you can see how you continuously pick and chose what to answer. When you can't defend your point of view, you focus on something minor and move the goal post. Tbh, it makes you look like a brainwashed US activist.

[Zoraptor]

4 minutes ago, Sarex said:

I hope you can see how you continuously pick and chose what to answer. When you can't defend your point of view, you focus on something minor and move the goal post.

Everyone does that to a certain extent. Frankly, the first part is a good thing too, if there's one thing the forum software downgrade did it's mitigate tiresome wall of text/ line by line posting (and I freely admit, I did a fair bit of it myself).

Ideally we'd all acknowledge when the other person has made a good point, but meh, humans gonna human. Again, I'd do a fair bit of that myself too.

I'd generally be happy with, say, simply not getting "the EU never made the association agreement an us or Russia proposition" or "the association agreement was never a first step to EU accession" said again after providing the relevant quotes showing they actually did exactly that, I don't need people to publicly accept they were wrong*.

42 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

NATO forces are already extremely close to Kaliningrad, St. Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula (with its nukes and other military stuff). This has been the case for quite a long while. Incidentally, Finland joining NATO will not change these distances except perhaps slightly in the case of St. Petersburg (not sure, won't check now).

I don't think Russia cares that much about Finland joining for precisely that reason; they're also already in the EU. Most of the Finnish border is very low infrastructure forest/ swamp/ marsh, seasonally, with blasted winter wasteland.

There's a border with Norway too, Murmansk is actually closer to Norway than Finland iirc (and Archangelsk about the same distance). Same most definitely cannot be said for Ukraine and the south of Russia though, it moves a load of cities far, far closer to NATO and gives a second easy attack vector on Moscow if there were a conventional war.

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

I reiterate the point that there is no significant movement into Russia. People don't want there. A fairly large number does want out, though.

11 million immigrants in Russia, 3rd most in the world.

I'll be frank: I'd probably come across as a lot less pro Russian if people didn't continually post stuff which they want to be true- and feel like it's true- but simply isn't*.

*I have a fair bit of sympathy because I know perfectly well that things like 'no one immigrates to Russia' or 'the EU never made it us or them' is a Well Known Fact that you can find in rather a lot of opinion pieces and articles and the like, and most people just presume it's true. They just happen to be well known facts that aren't actual facts. Or to quote Blake's 7

Vila: It's a well known fact!

Avon: Actually it's a well known opinion

Tarrant: As are most well known facts

[xzar_monty]

35 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Yeah... While we are on the subject of forum etiquette I hope you can see how you continuously pick and chose what to answer. When you can't defend your point of view, you focus on something minor and move the goal post. Tbh, it makes you look like a brainwashed US activist.

Can you give me one example where I have done that?

[xzar_monty]

18 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

11 million immigrants in Russia, 3rd most in the world.

 

I'll be frank: I'd probably come across as a lot less pro Russian if people didn't continually post stuff which they want to be true- and feel like it's true- but simply isn't*.

Good! I stand corrected.

From now on, the point must be made more precisely, and I should have done that earlier, no question -- blame is on me. The point being that Russia is not attractive outside its immediate geographical sphere; i.e. it is not a dream destination in the sense that the US is (although I wouldn't be surprised if the US ceased to be a dream destination). The link says the majority of immigrants come from the former USSR, places like Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. This stands to reason.

Russia is of course currently engaged in a process of extremely harshly forced "immigration" from Ukraine into Russia.

[Sarex]

@Zoraptor What bothers me is the "Either you are with us or against us" mentality.

[majestic]

7 minutes ago, Sarex said:

@Zoraptor What bothers me is the "Either you are with us or against us" mentality.

Why do you hate freedom?

Okay, 20 year old reference is old, but maybe it'll work.

[Elerond]

5 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Good! I stand corrected.

From now on, the point must be made more precisely, and I should have done that earlier, no question -- blame is on me. The point being that Russia is not attractive outside its immediate geographical sphere; i.e. it is not a dream destination in the sense that the US is (although I wouldn't be surprised if the US ceased to be a dream destination). The link says the majority of immigrants come from the former USSR, places like Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. This stands to reason.

Russia is of course currently engaged in a process of extremely harshly forced "immigration" from Ukraine into Russia.

Big sunk of immigrants in Russia are ethnic Russians that have moved to Russia after fall of USSR from countries that gained their independence

[xzar_monty]

23 minutes ago, Sarex said:

@Zoraptor What bothers me is the "Either you are with us or against us" mentality.

But where have you seen this? On these forums? Are you sure you're not projecting?

Btw, when I asked for an example of the kind of behaviour you described, I was being completely serious. Your "Haha" reaction was somewhat typical: you claimed that I was "continuously" doing what you said I was doing, but when I asked for an example, you didn't give me one. Although there should be plenty of them. This is how it often goes: a blanket statement is made, but when details are asked for, they are not given. Thus, no progress is made, understanding doesn't become clearer.

Earlier, you didn't answer my sincere question, and when I pressed you, you said you didn't answer "Because your question had an already known and obvious answer which you chose to play ignorant about". Again, you are projecting: the known and obvious answer was not known and obvious to me, and this was precisely why I was asking. I have no agenda: if I ask, I am honestly curious and wish to know. I don't think it's useful to project your sense of "the obvious" to other people: when someone asks, simply answer -- or ignore the whole thing. That's the kind thing to do. Don't be snide.

I agree this may change if someone asks whether the world is round or whether fire is hot.

[BruceVC]

26 minutes ago, Sarex said:

@Zoraptor What bothers me is the "Either you are with us or against us" mentality.

Sarex I have changed my opinion and I agree with you, Russia was provoked. But more importantly its a new world order where powerful countries can decide the future of less powerful countries. You right, its irrelevant what citizens think and sovereignty is meaningless 

NATO needs to invade Serbia again. Firstly Serbia use to part of the Austrian\Hungarian empire so we can reestablish those old borders like Putin is doing. Then the people of Serbia dont get decide about the independence of Kosovo, we will annex Serbia and Kosovo ...problem solved

And if we want further provocation everyone knows that Russia wants to put nukes within Serbia, Serbia is anti-NATO and their are loads of Neo-Nazis in Serbia

NATO is being provoked by Serbia and the West must invade !!!

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

 

I don't think Russia cares that much about Finland joining for precisely that reason; they're also already in the EU. Most of the Finnish border is very low infrastructure forest/ swamp/ marsh, seasonally, with blasted winter wasteland.

 

Oh thats a relief, so you dont think Putins going to invade Finland ....but Russia is being provoked like with Ukraine joining NATO?

 

[Elerond]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Oh thats a relief, so you dont think Putins going to invade Finland ....but Russia is being provoked like with Ukraine joining NATO?

 

I would point out that Zora claimed until last day that Russia will not invade Ukraine and there is no reason for them doing so. So I would not sigh for relief 

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

But where have you seen this? On these forums? Are you sure you're not projecting?

4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Btw, as far as your own posts are concerned, the swiftness and regularity with which you bring up the manifold failures of the west (about which I am neither in denial nor ignorant) gives the impression of a fairly rabid but also subtler-than-usual pro-Russia activist.

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, Elerond said:

I would point out that Zora claimed until last day that Russia will not invade Ukraine and there is no reason for them doing so. So I would not sigh for relief 

@Zoraptor Zora you did say that, Elerond is absolutely correct

Do you acknowledge you said that ?