Ukraine Conflict - Drei Kameraden

[Lexx]

18 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Then why Germany did not stop buying oil and gas from Russia immediatelly, if it is purely consumer driven? 

Or maybe ask people, if given a choice, would they prefer a loaf of bread or a 100 USD bill if they are hungry? 

Generic person here in germany doesn't even know about this stuff. Saying "yes, cut it off!" is easy -- but it comes from people who don't even know how much we import from russia. Also I still find it funny how planned this crap was. Russia delivered less gas over the past couple months, because "issues", and once the ukraine invasion started, magically the german gas reserves were low ... They deliberately tried to take us hostage via gas deliveries.

Our state failed with diversification. Not that this is news... People were talking about that already for years, but I guess our gov simply didn't thought it would ever get into a situation like this now. In hindsight, quite naive.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Lexx

[Mamoulian War]

In other news, Slovak National Criminal Agency arrested three people who were taking bribes over the last few years directly from Russian Embassy. One of the was in our Secret Service, which is pretty ****ty, one of them is a colonel in our army, which is less ****ty but still ****ty, and one of the owners of "alternate media" Hlavne Spravy, which was spewing pro-russian and anti-vaxxer propaganda since 2014. This media was shut down and cut off from internet few days after Russian invasion. One of the arrested people already confessed taking bribes, and pointed to russian diplomats, which will be expelled.

@Gorth The very same reason, why many people in the east europe support cutting off these "alternate media" from the internet. It has nothing to do with free speech, if the main goal of these media is spreading narrative to step up unrest amongst the populace and praise the parties (most of them neonazi), which leaders are on the russian paycheck.

[Chilloutman]

33 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Generic person here in germany doesn't even know about this stuff. Saying "yes, cut it off!" is easy -- but it comes from people who don't even know how much we import from russia. Also I still find it funny how planned this crap was. Russia delivered less gas over the past couple months, because "issues", and once the ukraine invasion started, magically the german gas reserves were low ... They deliberately tried to take us hostage via gas deliveries.

Our state failed with diversification. Not that this is news... People were talking about that already for years, but I guess our gov simply didn't thought it would ever get into a situation like this now. In hindsight, quite naive.

You guys needs to stop supporting those green madmans and fire up your nukes asap

[ShadySands]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Was interesting to think about how veterans of Western conflicts would react to this, in their combat tours they've likely never had to deal with artillery and airstrikes incoming.  Must be a bit jarring to not be in a one sided fight

Artillery, rockets, and other IDF were pretty common in my experience. Airstrikes would definitely be new and frightening.

[Darkpriest]

India ignores US. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/india-buy-more-russia-oil-working-rupee-ruble-settlement-mechanism-west-understands

[Chilloutman]

Gandhi must be spinning in his grave.... if its not that one from Civ games...

Edited March 14, 2022 by Chilloutman

[Malcador]

18 minutes ago, ShadySands said:

Artillery, rockets, and other IDF were pretty common in my experience. Airstrikes would definitely be new and frightening.

Was just thinking of the effect in volume as well.  Not saying they'll rout from just that (stories on Reddit aside) though, suppose in the context of people trying to kill you from afar doesn't really add too much.

[BruceVC]

https://www.aol.com/12-oil-stocks-goldman-sachs-165838372.html

Great news again around the oil price, its just higher than $100 and this better price is primarily because large oil companies like Exxon have agreed to make up any oil shortfall caused by  Putins War 

[Darkpriest]

10 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.aol.com/12-oil-stocks-goldman-sachs-165838372.html

Great news again around the oil price, its just higher than $100 and this better price is primarily because large oil companies like Exxon have agreed to make up any oil shortfall caused by  Putins War 

That, and China and India are buying Russian oil, plus a lot of brokers are still buying oil as it is not banned

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Then why Germany did not stop buying oil and gas from Russia immediatelly, if it is purely consumer driven? 

Or maybe ask people, if given a choice, would they prefer a loaf of bread or a 100 USD bill if they are hungry? 

Germany is heavily invested on producing their energy with gas and they have driven down their alternatives, like they are still continuing their plan to shut down their nuclear reactors during this year, even though their energy prices have been in increasing several years now. 

Building power plants take some time and it cost money, which is why Germany does not want immediately change source of their energy as they have option not to do so. Germany could reverse it decision to shut down nuclear plants and increase production in its coal plants. Remove all limitations from its coal mines, but it does not want because they think they can still do their move to renewable  energy in next three decades and use their natural gas as transition time strategy. So they are willing to buy gas from Russia just so that they don't need to do immediate actions that cost money and go against their past decision about their energy production.  

But question on who Russian will sell their gas if Germany (and other European countries don't buy it). As they don't have infrastructure to deliver it anywhere else and they ability to build such infrastructure is heavily hindered by hits their economy has taken from sanctions and they don't have domestic production for necessary parts to build such infrastructure.

 And if we don't count in struggles they have in delivering gas and oil to elsewhere, there is question of where to sell it. China is willing to buy it but cheaper price than what Europe is currently paying and there is same situation with India. As both of them are looking new sources to make their energy cheaper.

So if Europe doesn't buy gas and oil from Russia, then Russia is in situation where they need to spend billions to build new delivery infrastructure just to get less money they are currently getting. 

Considering that EU is producing almost twice as much wheat than it uses, it can easily keep bread and other agricultural foods in reasonable prices, even if they need to move from artificial fertilizers back to natural fertilizers and more sustainable cultivation, and still produce more than needed from current fields. Of course such jumps aren't easy and cost money when done in short order, which is why it looks like that many farmers will not sow all their fields this year, causing jump to crop futures, but that is temporal even in scenario in which EU can't buy any fertilizers from Russia.  

Bigger problem about food prices hit to countries that don't produce enough themselves to feed their population and have relied on buying food from Ukraine and Russia. If trade sanctions against Russia last for long time it there will be problems with Russian wheat exports even if they don't have any issue with production, because so much world transport capacity is in hands of countries that have put sanctions on Russia. As wheat in Russian silos does not help people in Africa if there is very limited capacity to transport it to Africa.

[Zoraptor]

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Ukrainian intelligence provided further details on Russia’s initiative to deploy existing pro-Assad units to Ukraine and recruit additional Syrian and Libyan mercenaries on March 13. Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russia is recruiting mercenaries from Syria and Libya and will pay them around $300-$600 monthly. Russia reportedly opened 14 recruitment centers in Syria and will transport mercenaries to the Chkalovsky airbase in Moscow Oblast after they receive training. The GUR reported that Russia has already gathered “thousands” of Syrian troops, mainly those specialized in heavy artillery and sniper weapons, from the National Defense Forces and 5th Corps—two Russian-backed pro-Assad units. Russia can likely redeploy its established Syrian proxy forces in the National Defense Militia and 5th Corps on relatively short notice, dependent on its airlift capacity. However, even hurriedly trained Syrian and Libyan mercenaries will likely take weeks or months to deploy to Ukraine and will likely be of lower quality than the already poor Russian forces in Ukraine. Russia is unlikely to successfully mobilize the reinforcements and replacements necessary to favorably change the balance of forces around Kyiv in the next week but may successfully generate a longer-term pool of low-quality replacements.

'Allah, Russiya, Putin w bas' chants and an 'Allah Russiya w Putin' remix incoming? Not even sure if Rami Kazour is alive for the 2nd...

NDF isn't really Russian backed, if anything it's Iran backed. 5th corps is though, but is also mostly made up of ex-rebels used as assault troops (cynically, because who cared if unreliable ex rebels died?). Kind of irrelevant anyway, they wouldn't have much difficulty getting recruits since the average monthly wage in Syria is something like $5 (ie five dollars) and there's a lot of unemployment.

They'd be in bodies on the ground roles, maybe some snipers but nothing else specialised. One of the things Syrians/ Libyans are notoriously bad at is, well, speaking Russian, so that means they'd be in roles that don't require much instruction and especially not much immediate instruction. They'd still free up other troops though.

5 hours ago, Elerond said:

There is reason why USA is rich where countries that produce goods and natural resources it use are poor

Hmm.

Hmmm.

Hmmmm.

3 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

Gandhi must be spinning in his grave.... if its not that one from Civ games...

"Gandhi, what do you think about western civilisation?"

"It would be a good idea"

Gandhi was not exactly keen on Britain especially or the west in general.

On the current situation, who would have thought that consistently backing Pakistan and sending a CSG to attack India in 1971 would have negative consequences for the US? Who would have thought that Russia vetoing everything on Kashmir/ Indian nukes and the soviets sending a fleet to shadow that CSG would have positive consequences? Not US diplomats, apparently. Repeat, with China, Iran, Venezuela etc. If you're going to pick fights pick them sequentially, not simultaneously. If you pick them simultaneously don't be surprised when they aren't put on hold according to your demands, schedule and needs.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Sarex]

10 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

5 hours ago, Elerond said:

There is reason why USA is rich where countries that produce goods and natural resources it use are poor

Hmm.

Hmmm.

Hmmmm.

Can't make this **** up.

[pmp10]

12 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

 

 

US seems convinced they already said yes.
Shouldn't starting serious military support take a few weeks tho?

[Elerond]

17 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Can't make this **** up.

Reason is heart of capitalism, every time you add layer in production chain you add layer that makes more money than lower layer. 

[Sarex]

1 minute ago, Elerond said:

Reason is heart of capitalism, every time you add layer in production chain you add layer that makes more money than lower layer. 

There is also intentionally supporting corruption and forcing that lower layer to stay low.

[Elerond]

5 minutes ago, Sarex said:

There is also intentionally supporting corruption and forcing that lower layer to stay low.

yes that increases profit of higher layer

[Darkpriest]

Too funny, suddenly Venezuela is good again

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-drops-report-chevron-set-start-trading-venezuelan-oil-once-us-relaxes-sanctions

In the meanwhile, bets how much BoJo is squirming now. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bojo-begs-saudis-ramp-oil-production-despite-latest-round-beheadings

Edited March 14, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Elerond]

Didn't BoJo help Saudis to take over Newcastle United when Premier League blocked them buying it? So I don't see why he now would have issues with Saudis.

[Darkpriest]

Funny enough the drop in oil is also now a result of destroyed demand side and increasing recession fears. 

The war in Ukraine seems to have expedited the incoming crisis. I had it mapped for this year, but more for the Q3, right on midterms in US. Seems by then we might have a depression, if FED will hike rates too aggresively.

China markets suffered immensly already, so they might actually look into de-dolarization more aggresively. It feels that within 2-5 years we will be looking into a new economic reality, with less dominant USD, more commodity backed currencies and more turbulent geopolitics. Should China's property market and economy suffer, they will go and annex in full Taiwan. The CCP will need distraction and a propaganda success. 

Russians timing was also well placed, just as the economies did not yet recover from COVID distruptions, making sure that any sanctions will be painful to Western economies as well. 

[Darkpriest]

8 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Didn't BoJo help Saudis to take over Newcastle United when Premier League blocked them buying it? So I don't see why he now would have issues with Saudis.

Because MBS will not do anything that would help Biden, and this action is last ditch effort by UK/US to try and stabiize situation on the Oil markets with now Iran deal dead in the water and Russia situation

[Malcador]

 

One of the more creative "there are reports..." tweets I've seen.

[majestic]

12 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

One of the more creative "there are reports..." tweets I've seen.

Every time I see ridiculous capitalization like this it reminds me of Trump tweets and our own SonicMage117s running around here. What the Hell?

[kanisatha]

5 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

You guys needs to stop supporting those green madmans and fire up your nukes asap

Yup. Wanting a green energy system and being anti-nuclear power is literally the case of trying to have your cake and eat it too.

[Zoraptor]

14 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

One of the more creative "there are reports..." tweets I've seen.

Don't know about creative. Much like Putin having Parkinsons you're not supposed to actually remember such rumours anyway, you're just meant to remember the endorphin rush from reading them. Like an intellectual (well, 'intellectual') candy bar.

The China resupply rumour is probably more 'creative', but also far more counter productive if you actually want co-operation from China.

7 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Because MBS will not do anything that would help Biden, and this action is last ditch effort by UK/US to try and stabiize situation on the Oil markets with now Iran deal dead in the water and Russia situation

The Iran deal is probably a large part of why MBS is grumpy and doesn't want to pump more oil, per below. Add a dollop of failure in Yemen and public distancing from that by the west and no doubt some feeling that they're only wanted when convenient and for their money/ oil plus pining for the glory days of a glowing palantir illuminating the saintly visage of Donald T...

High prices are good for KSA anyway, but by some accounts (albeit skepticism level --> pretty high) the nuJCPOA would have been literally signed last week- with weaker provisions than the original- if Russia hadn't tied sanctions relief to it. Yeah OK the R side in the US has promised to ditch it again as soon as they can, but there'd still be ~3 years of it. And all that with hardliner Raisi at the helm rather than a nice(r) moderate President like Rouhani.

And just imagine being Juan Guaido now. Not entirely blameless himself since he managed to completely mess up an attempted coup very publicly but he'd have gone from being fêted via standing ovation at a SotU speech and recognised by most of the western world to political liability and squashed possum on the road of expediency in... 2 years?

[Elerond]

35 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Because MBS will not do anything that would help Biden, and this action is last ditch effort by UK/US to try and stabiize situation on the Oil markets with now Iran deal dead in the water and Russia situation

But is UK that is suffering because of oil price not USA. And MBS and BoJo have increased UK - Saudi Arabia trade in past couple years, even so much that BoJo intervened in mentioned trade of Newcastle United