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Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues


Elerond

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16 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

You are talking on a country with 40+ mln ppl accustomed to fairly comfy, western like style of life. 

Russians will also have no interest of occuping the country. They will want to carve out the south east. Maybe force Zelensky out, but I do not see them having to fight in the cities. 

You know how big Kiev is? Have tyou been there? 

Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine and change Ukraine government and  order to achieve that goal they need to have there occupation force that can keep status quo after their invading forces leave. It isn't easy to keep alternate government in hostile country, you can just ask how easy it was for USA in Afghanistan. Resistance doesn't need to be big in order to change governance as soon as  occupying forces leave. So in order to Putin to achieve his goal he needs to have total dominance over Ukraine.    

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6 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Russia wants to demilitarize Ukraine and change Ukraine government and  order to achieve that goal they need to have there occupation force that can keep status quo after their invading forces leave. It isn't easy to keep alternate government in hostile country, you can just ask how easy it was for USA in Afghanistan. Resistance doesn't need to be big in order to change governance as soon as  occupying forces leave. So in order to Putin to achieve his goal he needs to have total dominance over Ukraine.    

Or he can carve out south east, demolish current miliatry infrastructure and hardware, and fore a treaty which will enforce so called 'demilitarization'. 

No need for such occupation and blood baths. He couldn't stop revolution when there was a lot of popular support for Russians, he certainly will not be able to keep marionetes in power with hostile populace. 

I've been giving him credit of being rational so far and he has proven me that he has more risk acceptance in his mind, so I might be wrong again. I just think it is not a sustainable solution and he should know this. 

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31 minutes ago, bugarup said:

You seem to believe the creature who gives commands to Mordor troops is capable of rational thinking. 

A few of us are guilty of that. It always appeared that Putin is an intelligent, if not always very amicable fellow. Ruthless, yes, but not crazy. Apparently though, that's at least partially not correct. Worse though, he made a couple of funny posts not age very well, and that's pretty unforgivable. Meh.

@BruceVC for a more serious reply now that I have some time for it, yes, apparently the intelligence wasn't a fabrication, or exaggerated for effect. You know the story about the boy who cries wolf, he gets eaten by the wolf eventually, but indeed, it was correct this time, the posts didn't age very well, and I was wrong in expecting that this crisis would be solved without shots being fired - kind of like every other crisis every year ever since 2014. To be honest, I still don't see what Putin expects to get out of this that benefits Russia, or his position, in the long term. You'd think France and Germany would put their own interests above others and strong-arm the Ukraine into backing down, but hey, here I was... apparently overestimating Putin, Macron and Scholz.

Putin always did a good job in keeping the EU divided and navel-gazing by supporting the fringe elements of many EU states that wanted the EU to go back to being a trade union (Front Nationale, The Freedom Party, fellow dictator wannabe Orban, recently supporting the anti-vaxxer movements) in order to prevent a more tightly knit European Union and common defense policy, but now he's running dangerously close to undoing a lot of that work*.

I also really don't want to be in Zelensky's shoes right now. Like @Guard Dog said it is really unlikely that anyone is going to war over the Ukraine. Going to be a lot of hindsight is 20/20 for the Ukranian government. A government I have a hard time expressing any sympathy for, to be honest. It's just really bad for the Ukranian people. They certainly donn't derserve any of this.

9 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I've been giving him credit of being rational so far and he has proven me that he has more risk acceptance in his mind, so I might be wrong again. I just think it is not a sustainable solution and he should know this. 

Two weeks ago, I'd have agreed to your assessment, and made it myself. Now, I'm not so sure. Apparently this is a hill worth dying on for Putin, for some reason.

 

*Admittedly though, probably not, because the US also has no interest in allowing any of that, and if this invasion proves one thing then it's that if push comes to shove, any emancipation of European interests flies out of the window in an instant.

Edited by majestic
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No voice to cry suffering.

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Wow, Russia invades the Ukraine, and the west is like;

"Thoughts and prayers you guys! 🙏🙏🙏"

****

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Civilization, in fact, grows more and more maudlin and hysterical; especially under democracy it tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary. - H.L. Mencken

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11 minutes ago, majestic said:

I still don't see what Putin expects to get out of this that benefits Russia, or his position, in the long term.

I think he's comfortable in the "East is rising and the West is declining" narrative.  Hubristic U.S. government severely underestimated the prospects of a Russia/China strategic partnership.  Nixon and Kissinger were not idiots.

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16 minutes ago, majestic said:

Two weeks ago, I'd have agreed to your assessment, and made it myself. Now, I'm not so sure. Apparently this is a hill worth dying on for Putin, for some reason.

You didn't see his latest live performance on TV? Red faced and frothing at the mouth? It's a very, very angry man.

 

Sort of knew something was about to happen after the live charade that was the Russian security council meeting transmitted live on TV. The poor spy chief got called back several times to the podium to rephrase his free and uninfluenced opinion to the viewers until Putin was happy with his message.

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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Putin is clearly not a rational actor. Any analysis predicated on the idea that he is rational is going to be more or less wrong. If I understand the situation correctly, given the weight of the sanctions, he is risking internal Russian stability, sooner or later.

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Started this as a new thread to relieve pressure on ye olde general politics thread. Please stick all things Ukraine in here for the time being. Like the US election thread, a temporary measure until things gets less heated...

 

Now watching this space for the news of the upcoming death of legendary Russian war hero Navalny who did a combat drop over the western Russian city of Kiev, unfortunate that his parachute came undone on the way down.

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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8 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

Wow, Russia invades the Ukraine, and the west is like;

"Thoughts and prayers you guys! 🙏🙏🙏"

****

Precisely why this is happening.
If Ukraine folds within a week not even serious sanctions might happen.
The gamble is that the west will accept a quick win as a fait accompli. 

6 minutes ago, Gorth said:

You didn't see his latest live performance on TV? Red faced and frothing at the mouth? It's a very, very angry man.

I thought a 'madman' act was put on display for better negotiation leverage.
Instead he must have twisted many arms to get Russian army to go forward with it. 

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24 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

Wow, Russia invades the Ukraine, and the west is like;

"Thoughts and prayers you guys! 🙏🙏🙏"

****

Only you suggesting that Azdeus

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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1 hour ago, majestic said:

A few of us are guilty of that. It always appeared that Putin is an intelligent, if not always very amicable fellow. Ruthless, yes, but not crazy. Apparently though, that's at least partially not correct. Worse though, he made a couple of funny posts not age very well, and that's pretty unforgivable. Meh.

@BruceVC for a more serious reply now that I have some time for it, yes, apparently the intelligence wasn't a fabrication, or exaggerated for effect. You know the story about the boy who cries wolf, he gets eaten by the wolf eventually, but indeed, it was correct this time, the posts didn't age very well, and I was wrong in expecting that this crisis would be solved without shots being fired - kind of like every other crisis every year ever since 2014. To be honest, I still don't see what Putin expects to get out of this that benefits Russia, or his position, in the long term. You'd think France and Germany would put their own interests above others and strong-arm the Ukraine into backing down, but hey, here I was... apparently overestimating Putin, Macron and Scholz.

Putin always did a good job in keeping the EU divided and navel-gazing by supporting the fringe elements of many EU states that wanted the EU to go back to being a trade union (Front Nationale, The Freedom Party, fellow dictator wannabe Orban, recently supporting the anti-vaxxer movements) in order to prevent a more tightly knit European Union and common defense policy, but now he's running dangerously close to undoing a lot of that work*.

I also really don't want to be in Zelensky's shoes right now. Like @Guard Dog said it is really unlikely that anyone is going to war over the Ukraine. Going to be a lot of hindsight is 20/20 for the Ukranian government. A government I have a hard time expressing any sympathy for, to be honest. It's just really bad for the Ukranian people. They certainly donn't derserve any of this.

Two weeks ago, I'd have agreed to your assessment, and made it myself. Now, I'm not so sure. Apparently this is a hill worth dying on for Putin, for some reason.

 

*Admittedly though, probably not, because the US also has no interest in allowing any of that, and if this invasion proves one thing then it's that if push comes to shove, any emancipation of European interests flies out of the window in an instant.

I appreciate your real opinion on this, I knew you were just joking earlier 

Also I asked you those questions not because I want vindication or for anyone to think I was right or that you were wrong

I wasnt right about anything, the reality of what Russia was doing was raised by  numerous sources and the media does get things wrong and  engages in hyperbole at times. 

But the US intelligence and other intelligence sources were 100% correct this time and more correct than I ever would have guessed because I didnt think  Russia would invade Ukraine. I assumed they would only operate in the separatist states 

Edited by BruceVC

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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56 minutes ago, majestic said:

Two weeks ago, I'd have agreed to your assessment, and made it myself. Now, I'm not so sure. Apparently this is a hill worth dying on for Putin, for some reason.

What was not in the media in the previous weeks was Ukraine shelling soft targets in the Donetsk area, but this is not really new when we look back a couple of years so it shouldn't really change the situation. In my opinion what changed is the amount of arms being injected in to Ukraine, a hundred and twenty something Abrams tanks is nothing to sneeze at and whatever else was potentially coming.

Maybe he was simply losing control of the situation and decided to rip the bandaid off, or he was confident that this would be a net positive situation.

Whatever it is the whole situation is a sad affair.

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The outright 'rational actor' perspective would be that Putin (and by extension Xi) are looking to take down or seriously degrade western prestige permanently, and think they've got the ability to do so. A direct challenge that succeeds achieves that goal. On balance, it's probably better to hope that it's just an irrational fit of pique though.

But, they'd have some support for that from others who'd stand to gain, and not just the obvious ones like Iran. India would probably be fine with it, and indeed their comment so far has been of the 'both sides should deescalate' type (no doubt with a slight reminisce about sides picked during the East Pakistan crisis also...). They'd love a permanent seat on the UNSC, especially Britain's, and the only way they're going to get that is if there's a major rearrangement of the status quo.

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5 minutes ago, Sarex said:

What was not in the media in the previous weeks was Ukraine shelling soft targets in the Donetsk area, but this is not really new when we look back a couple of years so it shouldn't really change the situation. In my opinion what changed is the amount of arms being injected in to Ukraine, a hundred and twenty something Abrams tanks is nothing to sneeze at and whatever else was potentially coming.

Maybe he was simply losing control of the situation and decided to rip the bandaid off, or he was confident that this would be a net positive situation.

Whatever it is the whole situation is a sad affair.

Putin's decision to invade was not made abruptly considering that his  notification of invasion was recorded three days ago and Russia started moving troops to Ukraine boarders several months ago. And they already made anticipatory plans with Belarus six months ago. 

They may have alternative plans to achieve their goals only with threats, but clearly Russia has prepared for this route for long time now

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20 minutes ago, Sarex said:

What was not in the media in the previous weeks was Ukraine shelling soft targets in the Donetsk area, but this is not really new when we look back a couple of years so it shouldn't really change the situation. In my opinion what changed is the amount of arms being injected in to Ukraine, a hundred and twenty something Abrams tanks is nothing to sneeze at and whatever else was potentially coming.

Maybe he was simply losing control of the situation and decided to rip the bandaid off, or he was confident that this would be a net positive situation.

Whatever it is the whole situation is a sad affair.

Whats equally important as acknowledging its a sad affair is calling it out for what it is 

Putin lied to the whole world and he is a warmonger. And what is  happening in Ukraine is nothing but an unprovoked  invasion on a sovereign country 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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3 hours ago, Elerond said:

Putin's decision to invade was not made abruptly considering that his  notification of invasion was recorded three days ago and Russia started moving troops to Ukraine boarders several months ago. And they already made anticipatory plans with Belarus six months ago. 

They may have alternative plans to achieve their goals only with threats, but clearly Russia has prepared for this route for long time now

Every country has contingency plans, against allies and foes, the closer the threat the closer the preparations come to fulfill those plans.

Edited by Sarex
thread>threat
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Russian stock market lost 45% of value when it opened today and the Russian ruble is at its lowest against the $ it has ever been

@Darkpriest

I guess the invasion of Ukraine is not going to lead the collapse of the US economy ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-stocks-slump-most-record-075557424.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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well I guess we have WW3 on our hands and I hoped I would not live the day

 

Bruce in this time sanctions does mean nothing. You should check what lead Germany to start WW2

 

I am pissed that EU is meek again as always

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I'm the enemy, 'cause I like to think, I like to read. I'm into freedom of speech, and freedom of choice. I'm the kinda guy that likes to sit in a greasy spoon and wonder, "Gee, should I have the T-bone steak or the jumbo rack of barbecue ribs with the side-order of gravy fries?" I want high cholesterol! I wanna eat bacon, and butter, and buckets of cheese, okay?! I wanna smoke a Cuban cigar the size of Cincinnati in the non-smoking section! I wanna run naked through the street, with green Jell-O all over my body, reading Playboy magazine. Why? Because I suddenly may feel the need to, okay, pal? I've SEEN the future. Do you know what it is? It's a 47-year-old virgin sitting around in his beige pajamas, drinking a banana-broccoli shake, singing "I'm an Oscar Meyer Wiene"

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The point of the sanctions here is not how much they will affect the Russian economy at large (breaking news: poor people will bear the brunt of the damage), but how much they will affect Russian oligarchs and the corrupt money flows that Putin is dependent on. It appears like this quite the gamble Putin is taking here, and I have no idea how long Putin can just ride it out.

Also, given that Putin is waving around the nuclear cudgel while his rationality is reasonably being put into question, I can see why the US and Europe are taking the meek approach, as much as it annoys me that the Ukrainians are getting screwed over while the world stands and watches.

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"My hovercraft is full of eels!" - Hungarian tourist
I am Dan Quayle of the Romans.
I want to tattoo a map of the Netherlands on my nether lands.
Heja Sverige!!
Everyone should cuffawkle more.
The wrench is your friend. :bat:

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27 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

 

Russian stock market lost 45% of value when it opened today and the Russian ruble is at its lowest against the $ it has ever been

@Darkpriest

I guess the invasion of Ukraine is not going to lead the collapse of the US economy ?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-stocks-slump-most-record-075557424.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

US market not yet open, but drops of 2-3% are notciable when talking pure stocks. It's what will happen in next couple of months. 

So far the sanctions seem to avoid any trade related aspects, which could hit natural resources like oil, gas, wheat etc. 

They want to focus on exports of tecj to Russia and financial markets. 

Tech can be covered by China and Russia itswlf as long as they can trade their respurces for cash. Financial markets, they do not really care about. 

 

Lets see what US and EU will officially declare as sanctions, then we will speak of economic fallout

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1 minute ago, Pidesco said:

The point of the sanctions here is not how much they will affect the Russian economy at large (breaking news: poor people will bear the brunt of the damage), but how much they will affect Russian oligarchs and the corrupt money flows that Putin is dependent on. It appears like this quite the gamble Putin is taking here, and I have no idea how long Putin can just ride it out.

Also, given that Putin is waving around the nuclear cudgel while his rationality is reasonably being put into question, I can see why the US and Europe are taking the meek approach, as much as it annoys me that the Ukrainians are getting screwed over while the world stands and watches.

Its rare I say this but I agree with you on this post

The economic consequence to this invasion and the sanctions that are coming will hurt the average Russian and not Putin or his billionaire Oligarch sycophants. But the various Russian companies the Oligarchs own will be hurt by this 

Its late to prevent the consequence to the Russian economy and how this will impact the Russian people and thats on Putin and his autocratic system of government 

"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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Does anyone agree with me that this is the best time to get a discount on a  hot Russian bride? Im not married so Im just asking 💞

Edited by BruceVC
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"Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss”

John Milton 

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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