Coronavirus 666: The Number of the Delta Variant (but in an entirely scientific context)

[Malcador]

18 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Don't want to spoil it for anyone, but they won't. It does potentially explain why Pfizer's efficacy drops off so precipitously over time though compared to other two dose vaccines and especially the functionally identical Moderna, if the initial effectiveness was inflated. Also, an absolute gift to antivaxxers. Coincidentally, the Pfizer CEO now wants vaccine misinformation criminalised...

This contractor did 3 out of 153 sites though.  Sort of disappointing the FDA only inspected 9.

Edited November 10, 2021 by Malcador

[LadyCrimson]

23 hours ago, ShadySands said:

She's just now being seen nearly 4 hours later

Any update? Is she doing all right?

5 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Eh, I strongly suspect some people dont have any friends to hang out with anyway.

I am not familiar with that word, I'll have to Google it later.  

[InsaneCommander]

6 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

@Hurlsnot Is that really your take away from IC's post? :kooky:

I took it as Brazil is turning the corner.

The situation is a lot better here now. 73% of the population is vaccinated. 57% are considered "completely immunized", having received 2 or 3 doses. As bad as things once were, we do have some advantages like an anti-vaxx crowd not that big in Brazil. We don't even have protests from them.

I was working from home until the end of October and now that I'm back to the streets daily, I see that most people still wear masks. However, most people seem to think the pandemic is over, so they will be less and less careful as time passes.

20 hours ago, BruceVC said:

That your healthcare department is aware of? In SA we dont have resources to track the true number of deaths from the virus or to understand the real infection rate so definitely some deaths from the virus are not known to us...I would assume Brazil is the same from an accuracy point of view?

No known covid deaths. But yes, maybe it happened and it was not registered.

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Malcador said:

This contractor did 3 out of 153 sites though.  Sort of disappointing the FDA only inspected 9.

Yep, but the potential for distortion is a lot higher than it seems on the face of it since ultimately the basis of the 95% efficacy claim resolves down from ~44k participants to only 170 people. I've had other issues with the 95% anyway, since it seldom seems to be compared on a like to like basis.

There's more than enough evidence that it's a good vaccine anyway, but its practical performance has been lower than expected given the initial study.

[ShadySands]

2 hours ago, LadyCrimson said:

Any update? Is she doing all right?

She's home and doing better. They aren't sure what caused it but they ruled out all the most dangerous stuff. My cousin also went home today and she's doing good.  

We're having a pretty big spike here so they've approved booster shots for all adults and gone to some level where hospitals can do some different stuff, I dunno, COVID brain fog.

Edited November 11, 2021 by ShadySands

[majestic]

Not so bad news for a change.

Antivaxxer brother-in-law's test result looks like a false positive*. He's been on a pretty strict testing regiment in the past weeks because of his work, so all his prior testing results before the one on Sunday were negative, and two separate PCR tests since Sunday (one on Tuesday, and one on Thursday) came back negative, including the official quarantine confirmation test. That's going to be some hassle later because he's paranoid as hell and probably thinks the government/state/deep state/illuminati/aliens have it out for him, but eh... at least there's a chance that he didn't infect his high risk patient sister during an absolutely unnecessary family outing.

*Not necessarily a false positive, if you test with a ct-value of >30 then you're still quarantined until confirmation, although that can just as well mean you've successfully fought off infection after exposure, but given incubation times and him not being vaccinated, that... yeah. Shucks.

[BruceVC]

17 minutes ago, majestic said:

Not so bad news for a change.

Antivaxxer brother-in-law's test result looks like a false positive*. He's been on a pretty strict testing regiment in the past weeks because of his work, so all his prior testing results before the one on Sunday were negative, and two separate PCR tests since Sunday (one on Tuesday, and one on Thursday) came back negative, including the official quarantine confirmation test. That's going to be some hassle later because he's paranoid as hell and probably thinks the government/state/deep state/illuminati/aliens have it out for him, but eh... at least there's a chance that he didn't infect his high risk patient sister during an absolutely unnecessary family outing.

*Not necessarily a false positive, if you test with a ct-value of >30 then you're still quarantined until confirmation, although that can just as well mean you've successfully fought off infection after exposure, but given incubation times and him not being vaccinated, that... yeah. Shucks.

Thats good news, nice one 

I meant to tell you , do you know all the years I have been chatting to you on this forum I never knew you were married. I cant recall you ever mentioning it? We learn new things all the time about people, thats why I appreciate forums 

Let me know if you want me to chat to email\chat to your brother in law about the dangers of believing in conspiracy theories...sometimes the views of an outsider can be more convincing ?

[Gfted1]

^ @majestic being married was news to me too for some reason.

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

^ @majestic being married was news to me too for some reason.

Yeah, he has definitely been quiet about that one  ( I wonder why Gfted1  ? ) 

[Malcador]

Luckily I have detailed files on all of you.

[majestic]

21 hours ago, Malcador said:

Luckily I have detailed files on all of you.

And you called me a sociopath?

[Azdeus]

22 hours ago, Malcador said:

Luckily I have detailed files on all of you.

This is great news incase I ever lose myself

[BruceVC]

31 minutes ago, Azdeus said:

This is great news incase I ever lose myself

I thought this already happened years ago with all the free coffee at your work or old work ?

[Azdeus]

15 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I thought this already happened years ago with all the free coffee at your work or old work ?

Oh, I've always been drinking ludicrous amounts of coffee, getting free coffee at work just meant that I had a couple hundred crowns extra a week to spend on more coffee.

[Elerond]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I thought this already happened years ago with all the free coffee at your work or old work ?

Isn't workplace where workers don't get free coffee a paradox, as there can't be work place if no one works there?

[ShadySands]

Why people with mental illness are at higher risk of COVID

Quote

There are several things going on that explain this, she says.

For one, mental illnesses change people's behaviors which can make them less likely to protect themselves from an infection, with measures like social distancing or wearing masks.

Second, people with mental illness tend to have poorer overall health and many chronic health problems, like diabetes, cardiovascular problems, kidney disease.

 

[BruceVC]

https://macmillan.yale.edu/news/covid-surging-eu-states-enact-new-lockdowns-and-face-widespread-protests

Much of the EU is going  through soaring levels of new infections and waves. France, Germany, Austria and many East European countries are hardest hit. My thoughts are with our friends in the EU

Edited November 24, 2021 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

South Africa now has a new variant caused by the low levels of vaccination, we have been put understandably on the UK red list  and Im sure more red lists will follow 

Edited November 26, 2021 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

South Africa now has a new variant caused by the low levels of vaccination, we have been put understandably on the UK red list  and Im sure more red lists will follow 

...and the situation is escalating rapidly

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

The UK, Singapore and Japan are among those rushing in stricter quarantine measures and banning flights from South Africa and neighbouring countries.

The EU is proposing to ban flights from the region across the whole bloc.

Scientists still have much to learn about the variant, but there are concerns it may be the worst yet.

It is still so new to scientists, they are yet to give it a more memorable name, like Delta or Beta. Right now, it is known as B.1.1.529, but the World Health Organization (WHO) is expected to name it on Friday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59428927

Stock markets across the world have fallen sharply after the discovery of a new Covid variant raised fears over the economic recovery.

In London, the FTSE 100 share index dropped by 2.6%, while markets in Germany and France also declined following overnight falls in Asia.

Shares in airlines and travel firms were among the hardest hit.

The UK and other nations have introduced a ban on flights from six southern African countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127

The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.

It is early days and the confirmed cases are still mostly concentrated in one province in South Africa, but there are hints it may have spread further.

...

In a media briefing Prof de Oliveira said there were 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells.

Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world.

 

Boldface highlight by me...

 

[BruceVC]

7 minutes ago, Gorth said:

...and the situation is escalating rapidly

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770

The UK, Singapore and Japan are among those rushing in stricter quarantine measures and banning flights from South Africa and neighbouring countries.

The EU is proposing to ban flights from the region across the whole bloc.

Scientists still have much to learn about the variant, but there are concerns it may be the worst yet.

It is still so new to scientists, they are yet to give it a more memorable name, like Delta or Beta. Right now, it is known as B.1.1.529, but the World Health Organization (WHO) is expected to name it on Friday.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59428927

Stock markets across the world have fallen sharply after the discovery of a new Covid variant raised fears over the economic recovery.

In London, the FTSE 100 share index dropped by 2.6%, while markets in Germany and France also declined following overnight falls in Asia.

Shares in airlines and travel firms were among the hardest hit.

The UK and other nations have introduced a ban on flights from six southern African countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127

The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.

It is early days and the confirmed cases are still mostly concentrated in one province in South Africa, but there are hints it may have spread further.

...

In a media briefing Prof de Oliveira said there were 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells.

Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world.

 

Boldface highlight by me...

 

This new variant found in Southern Africa could be very serious but we dont know enough about it to understand how it will impact the efficacy of vaccines 

[majestic]

11 hours ago, BruceVC said:

South Africa now has a new variant caused by the low levels of vaccination, we have been put understandably on the UK red list  and Im sure more red lists will follow 

Looks like it's a bit too late for that. Huh.

[rjshae]

Heavily mutated coronavirus variant puts scientists on alert (Nature)

Quote

Researchers spotted B.1.1.529 in genome-sequencing data from Botswana. The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein — the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body’s immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha, and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies.

...

It is also unclear whether the variant is more transmissible than Delta, says Moore, because there are currently low numbers of COVID-19 cases in South Africa. “We’re in a lull,” she says. Katzourakis says that countries where Delta is highly prevalent should be watching for signs of B.1.1.529. “We need to see what this virus does in terms of competitive success and whether it will increase in prevalence.”

 

[majestic]

One confirmed and some suspected cases in Israel, that genie has left the bottle.

Time to book another golfing vacation in South Africa. Last year retarded hotel owners from Tyrol brought the original SA strain back home, but Delta drowned it out before it could become an issue. This one could be more fun, so git going!

Edited November 26, 2021 by majestic

[BruceVC]

26 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Heavily mutated coronavirus variant puts scientists on alert (Nature)

 

When the article says " currently low numbers of COVID-19 cases in South Africa" that is inaccurate

We dont know our true numbers because we have never had active, working testing. We respond when hospitals start getting full and from  the testing that is only done from some public sector hospitals

[Zoraptor]

Seems a bit odd the WHO decided to skip two iterations in the naming scheme and use Omicron. OK, so there would be interminable jokes about the Nu/ new variant if they named it that much like all the Windows? Nein! jokes we so sadly missed out on due to MS skipping an iteration.

Guess they must have skipped the other one because they thought people might confuse it with any upcoming Chi variant. Can't think of any other reason they wouldn't want people talking about the Xi variant.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Zoraptor