A Fifth of Coronavirus

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

Royal Caribbean to allow unvaccinated passengers with restrictions

separate cabins. Separate dining facilities and times. Some activities they will not be allowed on. They won’t be allowed to use the pool. I guess if you wanted to know what it was like to be a black man in America in the 1960s book a trip on Royal Caribbean without getting vaccinated.

Sounds like loads of none-fun.

[Keyrock]

Even before COVID, a cruise was nowhere near the top of my list of things I'd like to do. Nowadays, the only way I'm getting on a cruise ship is at gunpoint.

[BruceVC]

On 6/22/2021 at 9:57 PM, Gromnir said:

us state governments figured out how to craft driver's licenses. am pretty sure the fed could come up with a kinda vaccine id if such a thing were deemed necessary.

the problem is you got 'tween 20% and 30% o' the country believing mandatory vaccination is unconstitutional and even ungodly. make illegal to work or shop for groceries or buy their guns at walmart w/o proof of vaccine only further convinces such people they is being persecuted. january 6 shows what happens when enough people, many o' whom howled 'bout the lawlessness o' blm and antifa during the summer, nevertheless feel complete justified in their own overt lawless behavior. joining a mob bent on stopping the electoral college process, and storming the Capitol to achieve such an end? many (most) o' the january 6 insurrectionists believed they were being patriotic as they forced their way into the Capitol, bent on overturning the election results.  compel people to get proof o' vaccination will lead to further radicalization o' the lunatic fringe, and if you think am exaggerating, you weren't paying attention to a few o' the more vocal far right supporters who disappeared from these boards after the november 2020 elections, and you ain't listening to a few o' the diehard "i know my rights" persons who continue to post. 

the ultimate goal is to get more people vaccinated, yes?  tell Americans they is required to do something and some significant percentage o' the population is gonna do the opposite just to prove they cannot be forced into doing anything against their will, even if by doing so they is hurting themselves and others. 

bears repeating, but mandatory vaccinations is, 'ccording to existing Court decisions, the law o' the land. the thing is, you can't actual force persons to be vaccinated, as contradictory as that sounds. can require vaccinations if you wanna go to school or be in military or even if you wanna work for state or fed or any number o' other circumstances, but you can't force persons to get injected. not wanna be injected as a private non essential military personage? can't force it. could require you to quarantine and potential could put you in prison, though that would be self defeating as you would then have a whole lotta unvaccinated people forced into crowded conditions ideal for spread o' disease. 

us ain't china. particular given how right wing media has turned vaccinations into a political and liberty issue for many, compulsory vaccinations would no doubt get a few more people vaccinated, but it would also guarantee that a significant number o' americans would oppose getting vaccinated under any circumstances, and you would no doubt help radicalize a considerable number o people, and not just those folks living in florida.

HA! Good Fun!

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/morgan-stanley-to-only-allow-vaccinated-staff-in-nyc-office/ar-AALmfVe

I agree the US political landscape is complicated when  it comes to mandatory vaccination required in different aspects of society but you can see in the Morgan Stanley example where things are going and this something I support 

[rjshae]

Claim that Chinese team hid early SARS-CoV-2 sequences to stymie origin hunt sparks furor

Quote

To some scientists, the claims reinforce suspicions that China has something to hide about the origins of the pandemic. But critics of the preprint, posted yesterday on bioRxiv, say Bloom’s detective work is much ado about nothing, because the Chinese scientists later published the viral information in a different form, and the recovered sequences add little to what’s known about SARS-CoV-2’s origins.

I haven't quite bought into the lab leak conspiracy yet, but this deletion does seem just a tad odd. I don't think Hanlon's razor applies here. Or does it?

[Zoraptor]

Three mutations? For an RNA virus that's statistical noise. It's less mutations than any named variant has in its spike protein, alone. Don't see how it adds much at all really since we already knew the wet market was not the source but more of a super spreader event.

Let's be frank, if they'd left the sequences up someone would have seen that as a sign of perfidy too- 'muddying the waters with irrelevant historical data' or similar. At this stage in the propaganda cycle we're well into working back from the conclusion desired using whatever motivations fit best.

To be fair to the author, he's a bit unlucky that 'just asking questions' type scenarios have become a bit of a trigger point recently.

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Three mutations? For an RNA virus that's statistical noise. It's less mutations than any named variant has in its spike protein, alone. Don't see how it adds much at all really since we already knew the wet market was not the source but more of a super spreader event.

Let's be frank, if they'd left the sequences up someone would have seen that as a sign of perfidy too- 'muddying the waters with irrelevant historical data' or similar. At this stage in the propaganda cycle we're well into working back from the conclusion desired using whatever motivations fit best.

To be fair to the author, he's a bit unlucky that 'just asking questions' type scenarios have become a bit of a trigger point recently.

Well the issue isn't that the number is small. It's that it exists at all. Conceivably it was done just to muddy the waters. But then why? I'm merely curious.

[Zoraptor]

The issue is that the number is so small though, as that also explains a deletion. The thing about ssRNA viruses are that they are ludicrously prone to mutation compared to just about anything else. RNA is inherently bad if you want genetic stability, and single strand is even worse.

For an academic example of why it isn't a big deal, and from a 'neutral' time period.

Quote

Despite having very limited coding capacity, RNA viruses are able to withstand challenge of antiviral drugs, cause epidemics in previously exposed human populations, and, in some cases, infect multiple host species. They are able to achieve this by virtue of their ability to multiply very rapidly, coupled with their extraordinary degree of genetic heterogeneity [variation/ variability]. RNA viruses exist not as single genotypes, but as a swarm of related variants, and this genomic diversity is an essential feature of their biology. RNA viruses have a variety of mechanisms that act in combination to determine their genetic heterogeneity. These include polymerase fidelity, error-mitigation mechanisms, genomic recombination, and different modes of genome replication. RNA viruses can vary in their ability to tolerate mutations, or “genetic robustness,” and several factors contribute to this. Finally, there is evidence that some RNA viruses exist close to a threshold where polymerase error rate has evolved to maximize the possible sequence space available, while avoiding the accumulation of a lethal load of deleterious mutations. We speculate that different viruses have evolved different error rates to complement the different “life-styles” they possess.

Source (emphases added by me).

It's probably also useful to post the abstract of the paper itself...

Quote

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery. Here I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH's Sequence Read Archive. I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud, and reconstruct partial sequences of 13 early epidemic viruses. Phylogenetic analysis of these sequences in the context of carefully annotated existing data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Market sequences that are the focus of the joint WHO-China report are not fully representative of the viruses in Wuhan early in the epidemic. Instead, the progenitor of known SARS-CoV-2 sequences likely contained three mutations relative to the market viruses that made it more similar to SARS-CoV-2's bat coronavirus relatives.

So only some of the 13 recovered sequences had the differences. If you took 13 sequences now there would be differences too, and probably more. 3 mutations is very much within the same 'swarm of related variants' mentioned in the first quote. Each named variant has a consensus sequence, but if you took 13 individual sequences there'd be a lot of minor changes within that classification, and you simply don't expect (or really want) every single change listed in a database because most are utterly irrelevant and have zero effect. And at the risk of parroting the objections made in sciencemag the deletions might be suspicious if there wasn't an alternative source for the same data, but there is, and the new sequences might be significant if we still thought the wet market was ground zero- but we don't. It's most likely they were deleted as being artefacts that didn't represent the predominant SARS2 sequence as was.

I very much like the percolator theory though, that you had a low infectivity but also low mortality crossover that nobody noticed until it got greater infectivity. With that you'll never know the ultimate source because there'd be a long period of it being in humans before it was detected as being in humans, but you'd also get things like a 3 changes ancestor.

[Gorth]

3 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

I very much like the percolator theory though, that you had a low infectivity but also low mortality crossover that nobody noticed until it got greater infectivity. With that you'll never know the ultimate source because there'd be a long period of it being in humans before it was detected as being in humans, but you'd also get things like a 3 changes ancestor.

That could also explain why they have found traces of Covid in samples from various Pathology facilities in countries around the world (Europe and South America iirc), samples predating the Wuhan "outbreak" (i.e. the time in 2019 when it got recognized as an epidemic or whatever the correct term is for it)

[rjshae]

When did the first COVID-19 case arise?

Quote

Using methods from conservation science, a new analysis suggests that the first case of COVID-19 arose between early October and mid-November, 2019 in China, with the most likely date of origin being November 17.

....

The analysis also identified when COVID-19 is likely to have spread to the first five countries outside of China, as well as other continents. For instance, it estimates that the first case outside of China occurred in Japan on January 3, 2020, the first case in Europe occurred in Spain on January 12, 2020, and the first case in North America occurred in the United States on January 16, 2020.

No mention of Italy though.

Coronavirus emerged in Italy earlier than thought, study shows

Quote

The new coronavirus was circulating in Italy since September 2019, a study by the National Cancer Institute (INT) of the Italian city of Milan shows, signaling that Covid-19 might have spread beyond China earlier than previously thought.

I haven't heard much about that since last year.

[Zoraptor]

The ultimate irony would be if it turned out that the source for sarscov2 was European Horseshoe Bats and not Chinese ones, and some random Italian ended up bringing the infection to China instead of the reverse.

[Bartimaeus]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccinated-people-account-for-half-of-new-covid-19-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326

"Delta" variant outbreak in Israel, readily breaking through current vaccinations such as Pfizer?

(e): Reddit scientists seem to be suggesting that while it is breaking through vaccinations at a higher percentage than the other variants, it's still probably ~80% effective against it (also less severe), so at least there's that. If the reddit scientists are to believed, anyways.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[rjshae]

51 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccinated-people-account-for-half-of-new-covid-19-delta-cases-in-israeli-outbreak-11624624326

"Delta" variant outbreak in Israel, readily breaking through current vaccinations such as Pfizer?

(e): Reddit scientists seem to be suggesting that while it is breaking through vaccinations at a higher percentage than the other variants, it's still probably ~80% effective against it (also less severe), so at least there's that. If the reddit scientists are to believed, anyways.

Q. Reddit scientists? 

[Bartimaeus]

14 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Q. Reddit scientists? 

Mockingly said. Basically meant to imply "people who might know these things better than me, but also possibly complete idiots", .

[Zoraptor]

Compare it with the flu vaccine, that's only ~40% effective at stopping infection, but it also reduces the incidence of severe infection even in the 60% that gets through, and that's enough to be worthwhile.

You're still ~8x less likely to get covid when vaccinated than not going by the Israeli figures, and that isn't even taking lowered severity into account.

[Bartimaeus]

15 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Compare it with the flu vaccine, that's only ~40% effective at stopping infection, but it also reduces the incidence of severe infection even in the 60% that gets through, and that's enough to be worthwhile.

You're still ~8x less likely to get covid when vaccinated than not going by the Israeli figures, and that isn't even taking lowered severity into account.

Yeah, for all the alarm this "delta" variant is causing, I was a little surprised that the estimated outright protection is as high as possibly 80% with reduced severity for what does it make it through. That's barely worth being concerned about if you're vaccinated - get the vaccine and keep wearing your masks in crowded in-door places, bozos, .

Edited June 25, 2021 by Bartimaeus

[Malcador]

18 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

That's barely worth being concerned about if you're vaccinated - get the vaccine and keep wearing your masks in crowded in-door places, bozos,

Sounds like you hate freedom.

[Zoraptor]

Quote

Yeah, for all the alarm this "delta" variant is causing, I was a little surprised that the estimated outright protection is as high as possibly 80% with reduced severity for what does it make it through.

The main places that will be really concerned about it are places without endemic covid, like here. 'Reopening to the world' has largely been sold here on the basis of 95% effectiveness of the vaccine giving herd immunity, if it's 80% against a significantly more spreadable viral variant that 80% may not actually be enough for herd immunity.

Edited June 25, 2021 by Zoraptor

[rjshae]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Sounds like you hate freedom.

I like to think that liberty is a love of freedom balanced by a dose of mature responsibility. Just because one was vaccinated and has been careful to follow quarantine procedures does not mean one hates freedom.

[Malcador]

30 minutes ago, rjshae said:

I like to think that liberty is a love of freedom balanced by a dose of mature responsibility. Just because one was vaccinated and has been careful to follow quarantine procedures does not mean one hates freedom.

I wasn't being serious, I'm not that insane.

[Gfted1]

Ive completely stopped wearing a mask and I wasnt really social distancing...I mean I still hung out and drank and played darts with my buddies in the garage. I guess bullet -> dodged.

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Ive completely stopped wearing a mask and I wasnt really social distancing...I mean I still hung out and drank and played darts with my buddies in the garage. I guess bullet -> dodged.

Thats fine when you live in a area where their is low virus load, like many parts of the US at the moment,  but if you lived in Brazil, India or SA that would put you at a higher risk of general exposure so its all about the reality of the virus spread in your country 

[BruceVC]

@Zoraptor

Can you clarify something about the reasons we have to wash our hands all the time. In SA the "science " behind this is   because if someone with the virus coughs on table and I touch that table then put my hands in my mouth I can be  exposed to the virus through my hands 

Is this even valid anymore as a reason the virus spreads? The virus is a respiratory disease as far as I know and is transmitted through infected air particles that float and we breathe ...so can you still get the virus through it being on your hands? 

[Gorth]

6 hours ago, BruceVC said:

@Zoraptor

Can you clarify something about the reasons we have to wash our hands all the time. In SA the "science " behind this is   because if someone with the virus coughs on table and I touch that table then put my hands in my mouth I can be  exposed to the virus through my hands 

Is this even valid anymore as a reason the virus spreads? The virus is a respiratory disease as far as I know and is transmitted through infected air particles that float and we breathe ...so can you still get the virus through it being on your hands? 

I'm not Zor, but I do remember reading that the virus can survive up to 72 hours on hard surfaces. Which means, if an infected person touched e.g. a door handle, the virus can be transferred to the hand of the next person who touches it. Hence, wash hands and don't touch your face to help prevent it from getting entry into your body.

Edit: Washing your hands only reduces the risk. To be sure, use hand sanitizer which kills the virus

Edit2: Door handle is just an example, think stuff like shopping trolleys, faucets, water taps, railings etc.

[Zoraptor]

Washing your hands is fine, so long as you use soap and wash for 30s or more.

[Elerond]

Soap is best against SARS-CoV-2, because it destroys it protein shell and prevents it from infecting cells. 

Sanitizer is bit less effective but good to use if you aren't able to wash your hands with soap.