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Politics XXXVII (The 12th Prime)


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There is no such thing as 'white culture?' What does that even me?

I find the only people who would use that terms eriously are those who would describes  'white culture' as 'slavery, genocide, or any other nasty thing'.

Just ask France and Britian if they have 'white culture' since despite being so close they are so different.

 

The whole 'karen' thing started reasonably but not it is just a racist catcall. LMAO

DWARVES IN PROJECT ETERNITY = VOLOURN HAS PLEDGED $250.

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12 hours ago, Volourn said:

BLM strikes again and murders two cops - who may or may not be white - because.... they dared to answer a domestic violence call! Barely a peep .  BLM and Antifa continue their mass murders and people still believe they're all about love and peace. LMAO

 

How many blacks, whites, latinos, babies, men, and women must they murder before they are treated  like the evil doers they are. At this rate they'll have killed more people than the KKK ever did. That is sad and scary.

You should work for the Daily Mail, Volo.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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I've been lurking here, but in general, the big problem is, that US population is incredibly ignorant, even at corporate level. (telling people they won't get raises, where they earn on average lesss than US minimal wage, because of crisis, and then boasting and flashing BLM in corporate msg boards and donating nearly a billion usd to various organization supporting that political movement is a slap in the face of people working for the profit margins, as the corporates also reduce their US employment and move positions to eastern EU, India and China) 

 

US has few hundred years of culture, that is a pot of identities, yet people think they understand cultures much older and much more coherent, than the US consumerism is. Imagine if a rainbow flag would be considered offensive in some part of the world, because 500 y ago there were some attorcities commited by a band of people from an unrelated culture, which you did not know. 

That's how some of the cultures in the East see treatment of some of the symbols, which were long before a certain group of people decided to use them as their own and murder people. 

 

Last 50-70 years threw a grenade into thousands of years of cultural and genetic evolution. 

 

I'll write something later, but I'm happy that I've decided to stay where I am and not move to US. 

 

When I was a kid 30ys ago, US looked bright and nice, 20years ago it seemed that there was a huge prejudice and treating outsiders, even with better education, as second rate residents, it was a first warning call. 10ys ago, it was obvious, that US is going downhill. Economic crisis, double standards, bailing out "too big to fail" and PC culture showing its ugly face. Now, this is the downward slope, indebted society, with morality policing and science in regression for the sake of ideologies. In 10-20 years, the US will be in the likes of Australia or UK at best, and at worst a group of nations divided like balkans are after the fall of Yugoslavia. And there will be a China-Russia domination on the world stage, as majority of production and resources will be controlled by them and their economic dependants in Africa, Middle east and south America. All the groups that US managed to piss off and alienate. 

 

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23 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Gorthfuscious with the reality of the virus and the global economic impact how do you feel about the world and society in general. For example some well being people in the beginning of the virus use to say things like "this is going to lead to a better world as we all become more compassionate and care more about people in poverty " 

You normally are a little cynical, which I have to honest I am not sure  its true because you dont come across as a truly cynical person, but I am sure our definitions of cynicism will slightly differ 

But how do you feel now, for example are you concerned with the potential risk to Oz if the virus spreads ?

 

 

About the cynical part, I think most people are in some way the sum of their life experiences. We all have some input in developing our personality, but there is only so much you can do with what you're given (in general, I know, exceptions always exists). For me, it was the experience of most of my friends and family throughout my teenage years and early twenties just kept dying on me. Freak accidents (motor cycle etc.), heroin overdose, stabbed to death in drug deals gone bad, freak medical conditions (one brain aneurysm, one heart attack at friggin 20 something) and so on. Eventually you just give up making friends, because, whats the point? Apparently people just don't hang around and you get tired of burials. I probably did develop a cynical streak over the years.

I also spend a lot more time listening than talking. It seems to make people feel uncomfortable in your presence ;)

Politically I'm an anarchist. Political philosophy that is, not the comic book villain anarchists throwing old cannon ball shaped bombs with lit fuses around, thank you.

As for the world... I don't think it's headed for anything better at the moment. Mostly because nothing has really changed where it matters. Old social structures are intact, people in power are mostly still in the same positions. The expendable ones are the vulnerable ones. Nothing has really changed the last few centuries there either. Only difference is the degree of hardship. It will take something much more significant than just a pandemic to change things. Although it's still a theoretical option, total nuclear war seems to have been mothballed for a while, despite many peoples expectations of a such in the 1960 to 1980's. Social unrest creates just that, social unrest. It rarely brings any significant improvement that isn't just improvement in name only, because old structures are often still around. So, short of a giant meteor impact or Yellowstone erupting catastrophically, I don't see the world changing overnight for anything, good or bad. Just gradually oscillating between getting better and worse for the majority of the common man/woman.

As for the sources of much of the worlds problems, I believe the way humans seems to shy away from individual responsibility and prefer to have other people do their thinking and decision making. We're selfish bastards as a race. I know from professional experience how draining man management can be when you are responsible for decision making for a bunch of people. You almost get the feeling that people prefer someone they can empower to make their decisions for them so they can blame them for when things don't work out 😄

Overpopulation is the second big issue I see as a threat to a "better world" (my vision of a better world, the rest of the worlds mileage may vary). The increasing strain on resources and environment keeps edging towards a point of no return in sustainability.

Which is also why pandemics do now and will in the future even more do so, hit us hard, because the sheer number of people living in proximity to each other has exploded. A cornucopia of bodies for an entrepreneurial little virus to explore.

One of those things (among many things) I often asked myself, where is it going to end? I work in a line of business that is, when I really think about it, about putting other people out of work by automating processes and work flows. I see many businesses (our customers) who seems to focus on cost cutting when they don't sell enough. Cost cutting is often synonymous with reducing the payroll figures. So, everyone is happy, staff numbers are down, cost are down, we can now sell stuff cheaper... or pay dividends to the shareholders or whatever. Guess what, lots of other companies had the same idea. Lets reduce staff numbers. People without job security are less likely to spend money. I don't have the big data, so that was just a thought, maybe something could get into a self reinforcing downward spiral there, with humans as the obsolete part in the end.
 

As for Australia and if the virus spreads... well, there is a big outback out there. I'm not @Guard Dog , so I don't feel like putting on some banana tree leaves and untanned hides and grab a boomerang and go hunting for roos and grubs the rest of my days. With a bit of luck, we (humans) may develop a bit more herd immunity. It won't save individuals, but it may save the many.

 

Not sure if those were any of the answers you were looking for, but I'm happy to elaborate.

 

Edit: I.e. I would have to ask you to ask more specific questions 😛

 

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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8 hours ago, Orogun01 said:

It's ok to say you don't know and that you haven't met any Proud Boys, ergo why you generalize them.

GkzGn0u.png

Rough, but should give an idea.

Edited by ComradeMaster

"America would be unrecognizable if it had ordered the separation of corporation and state like it orders separation of church and state."

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1 hour ago, Gorth said:

I'm not @Guard Dog , so I don't feel like putting on some banana tree leaves and untanned hides and grab a boomerang and go hunting for roos and grubs the rest of my days.

As saddened as I was overall after reading your assessment, thank you for this bit of imagery.

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5 hours ago, Gorth said:

About the cynical part, I think most people are in some way the sum of their life experiences. We all have some input in developing our personality, but there is only so much you can do with what you're given (in general, I know, exceptions always exists). For me, it was the experience of most of my friends and family throughout my teenage years and early twenties just kept dying on me. Freak accidents (motor cycle etc.), heroin overdose, stabbed to death in drug deals gone bad, freak medical conditions (one brain aneurysm, one heart attack at friggin 20 something) and so on. Eventually you just give up making friends, because, whats the point? Apparently people just don't hang around and you get tired of burials. I probably did develop a cynical streak over the years.

I also spend a lot more time listening than talking. It seems to make people feel uncomfortable in your presence ;)

Politically I'm an anarchist. Political philosophy that is, not the comic book villain anarchists throwing old cannon ball shaped bombs with lit fuses around, thank you.

As for the world... I don't think it's headed for anything better at the moment. Mostly because nothing has really changed where it matters. Old social structures are intact, people in power are mostly still in the same positions. The expendable ones are the vulnerable ones. Nothing has really changed the last few centuries there either. Only difference is the degree of hardship. It will take something much more significant than just a pandemic to change things. Although it's still a theoretical option, total nuclear war seems to have been mothballed for a while, despite many peoples expectations of a such in the 1960 to 1980's. Social unrest creates just that, social unrest. It rarely brings any significant improvement that isn't just improvement in name only, because old structures are often still around. So, short of a giant meteor impact or Yellowstone erupting catastrophically, I don't see the world changing overnight for anything, good or bad. Just gradually oscillating between getting better and worse for the majority of the common man/woman.

As for the sources of much of the worlds problems, I believe the way humans seems to shy away from individual responsibility and prefer to have other people do their thinking and decision making. We're selfish bastards as a race. I know from professional experience how draining man management can be when you are responsible for decision making for a bunch of people. You almost get the feeling that people prefer someone they can empower to make their decisions for them so they can blame them for when things don't work out 😄

Overpopulation is the second big issue I see as a threat to a "better world" (my vision of a better world, the rest of the worlds mileage may vary). The increasing strain on resources and environment keeps edging towards a point of no return in sustainability.

Which is also why pandemics do now and will in the future even more do so, hit us hard, because the sheer number of people living in proximity to each other has exploded. A cornucopia of bodies for an entrepreneurial little virus to explore.

One of those things (among many things) I often asked myself, where is it going to end? I work in a line of business that is, when I really think about it, about putting other people out of work by automating processes and work flows. I see many businesses (our customers) who seems to focus on cost cutting when they don't sell enough. Cost cutting is often synonymous with reducing the payroll figures. So, everyone is happy, staff numbers are down, cost are down, we can now sell stuff cheaper... or pay dividends to the shareholders or whatever. Guess what, lots of other companies had the same idea. Lets reduce staff numbers. People without job security are less likely to spend money. I don't have the big data, so that was just a thought, maybe something could get into a self reinforcing downward spiral there, with humans as the obsolete part in the end.
 

As for Australia and if the virus spreads... well, there is a big outback out there. I'm not @Guard Dog , so I don't feel like putting on some banana tree leaves and untanned hides and grab a boomerang and go hunting for roos and grubs the rest of my days. With a bit of luck, we (humans) may develop a bit more herd immunity. It won't save individuals, but it may save the many.

 

Not sure if those were any of the answers you were looking for, but I'm happy to elaborate.

 

Edit: I.e. I would have to ask you to ask more specific questions 😛

 

You have answered in pertinent  and interesting detail, I did assume you would be thorough because the question was complex. No questions for now and thanks for sharing 8)

"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” -  George Bernard Shaw

 

"What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela

 

 

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6 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

 

When I was a kid 30ys ago, US looked bright and nice, 20years ago it seemed that there was a huge prejudice and treating outsiders, even with better education, as second rate residents, it was a first warning call. 10ys ago, it was obvious, that US is going downhill. Economic crisis, double standards, bailing out "too big to fail" and PC culture showing its ugly face. Now, this is the downward slope, indebted society, with morality policing and science in regression for the sake of ideologies. In 10-20 years, the US will be in the likes of Australia or UK at best, and at worst a group of nations divided like balkans are after the fall of Yugoslavia. And there will be a China-Russia domination on the world stage, as majority of production and resources will be controlled by them and their economic dependants in Africa, Middle east and south America. All the groups that US managed to piss off and alienate. 

 

Yeah, there was very little prejudice in the US back in the 60's and 70's. Everything was bright and nice. :wowey:

So the Balkans are a worst case scenario, but Russia is now the dominant player on the world stage? So does that mean in like 30 years the US will re-emerge on the world stage minus a few bits and pieces? Personally I'm rooting for the Republic of California. We've got some good stuff going for us if we don't fall into the Pacific Ocean.

Generalizing a country made up of 50 separate and unique states as ignorant is not necessarily how I would make my first foray into the politics thread, but welcome aboard!

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So you're one of them pound sign calexit folks, I take it? Good man.

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- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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1 hour ago, Hurlshot said:

Yeah, there was very little prejudice in the US back in the 60's and 70's. Everything was bright and nice. :wowey:

So the Balkans are a worst case scenario, but Russia is now the dominant player on the world stage? So does that mean in like 30 years the US will re-emerge on the world stage minus a few bits and pieces? Personally I'm rooting for the Republic of California. We've got some good stuff going for us if we don't fall into the Pacific Ocean.

Generalizing a country made up of 50 separate and unique states as ignorant is not necessarily how I would make my first foray into the politics thread, but welcome aboard!

Not that it was less, juat less visible and perhaps as a kid from a post-communist country i also had a limited visibility to how things work? A bit rose tinted glasses to all that vision of wealth and freedom 😉

 

Prejudice was always there in the people. Heck, go back to the early 1900 and all those Irish, Italians, Polish etc in NYC and similar divisions in other big cities of US of A. 

 

I've been here for a long time, just didn't bother to post. But what's going on now is simply too much to ignore. 

 

The concepts like white privilage etc are just bull****. 

 

There is a wealth privilage and that wealth privilage is linked to English culture descendands. 

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This is the kind of thing that BLM/Antifa pushes black people to do. That is sick. And, now he's punishing the vast majority of blacks who are just trying to live their life because BLM and Antifa are mass murdering, raping, destructor scumbags:

https://t.me/Boomerwaffen1488/964

 

(of course, it could be FAKE NEWS. It is the internet afterall).

 

Edited by Volourn

DWARVES IN PROJECT ETERNITY = VOLOURN HAS PLEDGED $250.

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2 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Not that it was less, juat less visible and perhaps as a kid from a post-communist country i also had a limited visibility to how things work? A bit rose tinted glasses to all that vision of wealth and freedom 😉

 

Prejudice was always there in the people. Heck, go back to the early 1900 and all those Irish, Italians, Polish etc in NYC and similar divisions in other big cities of US of A. 

 

I've been here for a long time, just didn't bother to post. But what's going on now is simply too much to ignore. 

 

The concepts like white privilage etc are just bull****. 

 

There is a wealth privilage and that wealth privilage is linked to English culture descendands. 

Wealth privilege linked to English Cultural Descendants doesn't quite roll off the tongue like White Privilege.

There are a lot of contradictions here. Prejudice has existed for a long time, but now it is simply too much too ignore? Different groups were prejudiced against in the previous century based on their race, but white privilege doesn't exist? Which one is it?

What's going on now is nothing new. Not the privilege part, the prejudice, nor the reaction. We've had numerous civil rights movement throughout history, and this one is nothing different. But things do tend to change as a result. As you mentioned, Irish, Italians, and Polish immigrants were all pretty well prejudiced against in US History, and over time, that changed.   

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4 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

Wealth privilege linked to English Cultural Descendants doesn't quite roll off the tongue like White Privilege.

There are a lot of contradictions here. Prejudice has existed for a long time, but now it is simply too much too ignore? Different groups were prejudiced against in the previous century based on their race, but white privilege doesn't exist? Which one is it?

What's going on now is nothing new. Not the privilege part, the prejudice, nor the reaction. We've had numerous civil rights movement throughout history, and this one is nothing different. But things do tend to change as a result. As you mentioned, Irish, Italians, and Polish immigrants were all pretty well prejudiced against in US History, and over time, that changed.   

Perhaps the language is responsible for some misunderstanding, or just me writing from a phone and not giving enough time to second read. 

 

Prejudice did exist and will exist. That's in a human nature. It's derived from the ingroup and outgroup perceptions nd exists in all groups of life (in different forms) , which is not solitary. It's a part of nature and how it deals with scarcity of resources. 

 

I'd argue that Italians, Irish, Polish, Russians, Bulgarians, etc now have it much better.  From what I observed, you need to be 2nd or even 3rd generation in US to have a reasonable chance for a success, if you are not coming in wealthy or via some corporate assignment to a high paid job. You are even more out of luck now, if you come now as a melatonine deficient human species representative. 

 

It's hard to ignore this blatant power grab. It is the same as bolsheviks or nazis 100 years ago. Great ideals, some wealthy enemy being the source of ill fate and mass outrage. Same happened to France and French revolution, which eventually led to rise of Napoleon. 

 

I like civil rights movement and I'm in favor of tolerance. But tolerance is a two way street and tolerance should not be abused to change it into a fight for privilages. Especially when that fight becomes voilent and turns into riots and looting. 

 

Look at Poland for example, (the 1989-90) No looting, mass movements and the positive change, which led to end of communism in the eastern block. 

Society, even though still with inclinations to remnants of communism, which is shown in beurocracy and some view on the role of the state, over time reduced coruption, has one of the best success stories in terms of development and increase of wealth per capita, and with eservices much better than in the USA, as a corner shack with vegies will still allow you to pay with your smartphone. 

Crime rates are low, and cities are now cleaner than in Germany, which would be beyond imagination 30years ago. 

 

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Thanks for the response, Darkpriest, that did help me understand your viewpoint better.

I will say this about the protests in the US; thousands are happening peacefully across the country. They don't get the same coverage that the violent ones do. 

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Probably in small towns or areas where the protestors are outnumbered.

 

That said, 90% of thema re probably peaceful. Maybe even more. But it is the small number that should be focused on and crushed. Just like bad cops. Small minority but they need to be destroyed.

 

And, governments need to stop letting clearly violent criminals out of prison.

DWARVES IN PROJECT ETERNITY = VOLOURN HAS PLEDGED $250.

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13 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

And there will be a China-Russia domination on the world stage, as majority of production and resources will be controlled by them and their economic dependants in Africa, Middle east and south America.

China maybe, Russia doesn't have the clout and doesn't have a realistic route to get it back either even without the US as a factor.

Russian international power is almost entirely oppositional, from offering an alternative to the US (and having a big nuclear arsenal/ UN veto/ hydrocarbons and other raw materials). China, well, they've been busy alienating every single one of their neighbours except Russia and even there the relationship is arms length except when it comes to opposing the US. Their foreign policy is exactly what you get when you come up through a regimented system where orthodoxy and obeying the rules designed to propagate The Party are paramount. The reality of world politics is that the vast majority of countries will happily take Chinese money while their views on the CCP vary from dislike to loathing- and that reality always triggers CCP members because they've grown up with that being near literally unthinkable and with a massive cultural chip on their shoulder when it comes to western nations. Even minor or imagined slights see toys ejected from cots, and that isn't conducive to long term international success.

The world is naturally multipolar, if the US declines or collapses it will be China, the EU (assuming it didn't get dragged down by the US) and at some stage India with the big influences, with Russia retaining a role as a spoiler. It's doubtful even combined that they'll have the influence the US has had recently though.

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@Zoraptor

 

Watch when in the next 5-10 years China nd Russia will go to replace petroDollar with petroYuan and gasRouble, once China will kill HKD and move the Asian stock centre from HK to Shanghai, where they already have a good setup with precious metals, especially Gold. 

They've already put an umbrella over Iran (the recently signed deals, including direct investment into Iran from China and arms deala from Russia) , Syria. 

In a few years house of Sauds will lose its significant grip on the oil markets, and you have had some prelude to what may happen on the markets, once Russians will show a middle finger to Sauds on pricing and production quotas. Now imagine that biggest growing market will also start skipping Sauds, as they will have oil lines from Iran? 

The one thing that is volatile and can drag power one way or the other is Turkey, but their leader got drunk on this power and like a donkey in some old tales, cannot pick and will starve. 

 

India is a big country, but do you really think that they'd rather pick deals with US than brokering some deals with China? After years of abuse first by English and later by corporate US? 

Look how quickly things de-escalated, even though soldiers on both sides were killing each other. 

Unless USA and EU will put their **** together quickly and they will start thinking and act like meritocracy technocrats and at the same time understand to introduce policies addressing wealth gaps and introducing national, cultural goals and bringing more cohesion to societies, then the Western cultural and economic dominance is done for. The alternatives aren't pretty though. 

 

Funny, how many parallels you can draw between USA and Roman Empire. 

Killed by ineptitude of leaders, corruption of wealthy, laziness of citizens, with demorizliezd policing and overstretched armies that consist in significant amount of auxiliaries with residence. Emerging faith replacing the old one that pushed people of the past. Just waiting for a barbarian revolt and sacking of Washington. 

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3 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Look at Poland for example, (the 1989-90) No looting, mass movements and the positive change, which led to end of communism in the eastern block. 

Society, even though still with inclinations to remnants of communism, which is shown in beurocracy and some view on the role of the state, over time reduced coruption, has one of the best success stories in terms of development and increase of wealth per capita, and with eservices much better than in the USA, as a corner shack with vegies will still allow you to pay with your smartphone. 

Crime rates are low, and cities are now cleaner than in Germany, which would be beyond imagination 30years ago. 

That's far from the whole picture though. The success of peaceful Solidarity stems in part from the failures in Czechoslovakia and Hungary that weakened both the influence and resolve of the Soviet leadership to crush yet another anti-communist movement within its sphere of influence. Further, unlike in 1956 and 1968, by 1988 the Soviet Union was in economic dire straits and about to concede defeat in Afghanistan. Poland also received massive economic aid through the SEED act of '89 and the EBRD to become the market economy it is today. Not to mention that political unrest in communist Poland goes back at least two decades before the regime finally fell.

I'm not trying to detract from the massive effort made by Poles to rebuild their country after communism, mind. But they had significant outside help. The underclass in the US don't have any. They barely even have political leaders that truly work for them.

- When he is best, he is a little worse than a man, and when he is worst, he is little better than a beast.

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1 minute ago, 213374U said:

That's far from the whole picture though. The success of peaceful Solidarity stems in part from the failures in Czechoslovakia and Hungary that weakened both the influence and resolve of the Soviet leadership to crush yet another anti-communist movement within its sphere of influence. Further, unlike in 1956 and 1968, by 1988 the Soviet Union was in economic dire straits and about to concede defeat in Afghanistan. Poland also received massive economic aid through the SEED act of '89 and the EBRD to become the market economy it is today. Not to mention that political unrest in communist Poland goes back at least two decades before the regime finally fell.

I'm not trying to detract from the massive effort made by Poles to rebuild their country after communism, mind. But they had significant outside help. The underclass in the US don't have any. They barely even have political leaders that truly work for them.

It is still a bit of a mismatch to compare a homogeneous country to the situation of ethnic groups within larger demographics. I honestly can't understand why the need for the comparison.

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I'd say the answer to that question is kind of like the answer to "who's the sucker in this poker game?"*

 

*If you can't tell, it's you. ;)

village_idiot.gif

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1 hour ago, Darkpriest said:

Watch when in the next 5-10 years China nd Russia will go to replace petroDollar with petroYuan and gasRouble

China and Russia already do transactions in their own currency when possible. The question is whether other countries will use Yuan or Roubles in future for 3rd party transactions as they do with USD today; which they won't. Yuan value is overly manipulated for Chinese benefit too much (USD is now too for US benefit, but it's already the reserve), Rouble ain't anywhere near powerful enough even for gas priocing. If the USD imploded the Euro would take its place as default, though there would be a lot lot more transactions in 3rd party currencies.

Quote

They've already put an umbrella over Iran (the recently signed deals, including direct investment into Iran from China and arms deala from Russia) , Syria. 

Sure, but with all respect due to Iran, DPRK, Syria etc they are not overly important in the greater scheme of things, and the umbrella has gone over as a reaction/ response to US actions. Iran wouldn't be anywhere near so much in China's camp if Trump hadn't abrogated the JCPOA, indeed part of the point of the JCPOA was to get Iran integrated into the western (european mostly) economy and away from China/ extremism.

Quote

In a few years house of Sauds will lose its significant grip on the oil markets, and you have had some prelude to what may happen on the markets, once Russians will show a middle finger to Sauds on pricing and production quotas. Now imagine that biggest growing market will also start skipping Sauds, as they will have oil lines from Iran? 

China already gets a significant amount of oil from Iran. Saudi and Russia fight over oil quotas occasionally, but generally cooperate. The recent glut was a response to declining US influence as well though, with Saudi going after US shale oil every bit as much as it was going after Russia, which is why Trump got grumpy at them. Saudi under MbS is haemorraghing money way worse than Russia is, indeed Russia actually has more foreign currency reserves than it did in 2014, when some thought it was 6 months from bankruptcy, despite sanctions and lowered oil prices. But, both are big producers going through limited reserves pretty quickly.

Quote

The one thing that is volatile and can drag power one way or the other is Turkey, but their leader got drunk on this power and like a donkey in some old tales, cannot pick and will starve. 

Turkey is mostly irrelevant for similar reasons to China, only even more extreme since they're smaller and have less economic clout. Turkey's neighbours hate it, and that is barely any exaggeration. They have good relations with the Azeris, some of Libya and Qatar. Greece, Armenia, Cyprus, Syria, Iraq and to an extent even Iran loathe Turkey. Everything else for Turkey is playing off Russia and US/ NATO against each other militarily and trying to gouge Europe while judging how far things can be pushed without making a final break with anyone. Turkey also has the bubbliest of bubble economies with the lid held down by funny money construction boom shenanigans from, iirc, Erdogan's utterly unqualified son in law finance minister.

Quote

India is a big country, but do you really think that they'd rather pick deals with US than brokering some deals with China? After years of abuse first by English and later by corporate US? 

At the moment after the clashes in Ladakh, definitely yes. India has been cancelling Chinese deals and banning their software etc over the last month, and under Modi/ Trump the US focus has shifted from bolstering India's great enemy Pakistan towards India. The anti China sentiment in India has been stoked somewhat by distracting from Covid too, but it is very real. It hasn't really been de-escalated, it's more that China realised they'd shot themselves in the foot acting against an opponent that could and did effectively respond; China . Modi and the BJP are nationalists, they love having external enemies and while Pakistan is more convenient China works too.

If the US 'disappeared' the biggest economic power would be Europe, and China would end up facing essentially an ASEAN type military alliance because they're so unpopular with their neighbours. I'd even suspect a military ASEAN would end up including Russia, since they're at best friends of convenience with China, and India.

 

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36 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

If the US 'disappeared' the biggest economic power would be Europe, and China would end up facing essentially an ASEAN type military alliance because they're so unpopular with their neighbours. I'd even suspect a military ASEAN would end up including Russia, since they're at best friends of convenience with China, and India.

But without US military power, China would likely begin establishing their hegemony over the South East Pacific. Add their investments in Africa and it would give them a sphere of influence that's strategically greater than EU.

I'd say the answer to that question is kind of like the answer to "who's the sucker in this poker game?"*

 

*If you can't tell, it's you. ;)

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24 minutes ago, Hurlshot said:

China doesn't have a reputation for invading other countries though. The US certainly cannot say the same.

Well, they have TIbet and Vietnam and several wars with India.  Probably as bad as the US, just more focused in their neighbourhood.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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59 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Well, they have TIbet and Vietnam and several wars with India.  Probably as bad as the US, just more focused in their neighbourhood.

I'll give you Tibet, but that was still 60 years ago. I had to look up the Vietnam one to even remember the details, and the India stuff tends to be more border clashes. You can throw Hong Kong in there for good measure, but it still pales in comparison to all the pots the US has its fingers in. 

Not that I'm saying they couldn't become a warmongering nation. I'm just saying they have shown little interest in sustained warfare throughout their history. Meanwhile the US has been mired in Iraq and Afghanistan for ages and has a global military presence. I'm not even making a judgement call on that, I'm just saying these are major philosophical differences in the way they operate.

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