Darkpriest

@Mamoulian War This summarizes some of the issues with US side but only on gasoline side. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/first-time-ever-national-average-gas-price-5

On another economic news front, how long before Western countries will have to fold on support due to costs https://on.ft.com/3H0tnfL

Now this can actually hit the Russian exports, as it would take a lot of time and resources to have state backed fleets to operate on bilateral terms and under state backed insurances for the Asian locations. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Insurance-Ban-Is-The-EUs-Biggest-Blow-Yet-To-Russian-Oil-Exports.html

From FinancialTimes. (ft.com) Seems Germany, Italy, etc. are having their gas suppliers paying in RUB for gas. ---—------ Russia suggests no more countries to be cut off from its gas Nastassia Astrasheuskaya in Riga Russia will not switch off gas supplies to any more countries over the rouble payment scheme, the Kremlin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday. The scheme requires countries to convert payments for gas supply into roubles through their accounts with Russia’s Gazprombank. Countries that have refused to use the new mechanism have already been disconnected. “The system is working, the system has been set up, and those who receive gas are already working under the new system,” said Peskov, according to Russian news agency Interfax. Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree earlier this year requiring Gazprom’s clients in so-called unfriendly countries, which include the EU, to switch gas payments to roubles. He said this was a response to the west freezing Russia’s foreign reserves. A number of countries — including Bulgaria, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland — have refused to use the mechanism, saying it contradicts the contract terms, leading Gazprom to halt their gas supply.

This is an article from a more pro-Russian site, so thread carefully on this site, however the article provides some more light on UA propaganda as well. https://summit.news/2022/06/09/ukrainian-official-admits-she-lied-about-russians-committing-mass-rape-to-convince-countries-to-send-more-weapons/

What that says is not untrue in the past political circumstances. The truth is, that due to political demonization of fossil fuels industry, there is no will to invest in expensive methods of extraction. Oil related investments are killed politically (permits, pipelines, etc.) The US gov did not bail out the oil industry when it got pummelled during the pandemics so investing a lot of money, which is at risk of being destroyed by OPEC+ or domestically by a Dems government, is not really causing large investments in Oil, even when banks raise benchmarks for this comm. price to 140+. OPEC does not need to act to lower the price at all, they can keep the price and send replacements to EU, US, while Russian,cheaper Oil, will be flowing to Asia (mainly China and India) . That would give Sauds more political leverage. LPG might be a bit different, but still US consumer got hit hard, as the price went to over 9 USD, highest since the depths of the 2008 crisis, and this is before the proper summer season with high temperatrues hits and before the winter season, where a lot of parties are still at very low reserves. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Big-Oil-Set-To-Win-Stakes-In-Qatars-Huge-LNG-Expansion-Projects.html

@Mamoulian War Why do you think this? ----- why the prices of Oil will not stay very high for long, because in the end, this is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia ---- It could only be true i case in US the oil production would ramp up, with fracking etc. but due to political reasons it won't happen in US. The oil sector in US is demonized. India amd China will be getting Oil from Russia at a discount, China will even go for Russian Coal as they seem to pivot to reinstating coal due to energy demand. Sauds will have EU and US in a position in which they will be "willing" (no choice to donotherwise) to pay elevated prices for some time, surely this and most likely a large part of next year. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-sees-oil-rising-136-month-depending-what-china-does-trader-bets-millions-crude

More on weapon transfers oversight issues https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-ukraine-aid-oversight-00036463 https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/06/02/interpol-illicit-arms-ukraine/

In regards to the 'optimism' of OPEC decision https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-soars-markets-realize-what-opec-did As what comes with the resolve, it will be tested around autumn, as both food and energy will spike, and governments will be having issues with high debt and heavy cost of that debt due to inflation/rates spiral. ECB still tries to stave off, but even they cannot ignore 8% inflation in Germany. Once ECB will start QT or rates increases all hell will break loose, should it be coupled with high costs of oil, gas and food.

To put in perspective... After just 11 minutes, a new record for brevity, the OPEC+ minister meeting ended and as noted earlier, concluded by agreeing to a 648K increase for both July and August, the first time that OPEC+ has deviated from its standard monthly increase of 432K since the increments were started last summer. The decision will accelerate the completion of OPEC's reversal of several years of output cuts a month earlier than planned. In the grand scheme of things, the 200K or so increase in output does nothing. Furthermore, as Bloomberg notes, any bigger increase will be shared pro-rata by all participants which is "going to eat into the volume actually delivered by quite a bit." https://twitter.com/Amena__Bakr/status/1532358075650301954?s=20&t=luS_-pzM2SKlgg0xaSPx6g

Seems US is keen on testing Russia's resolve around where their Red Line is. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-sell-ukraine-advanced-drones-armed-hellfire-missiles-coming-days https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-engaged-offensive-cyber-ops-against-russia-ukraine-nsa-director-admits-first

@BruceVC For you https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-producers-stay-one-step-ahead-of-sanctions-11654076614?mod=hp_lead_pos3

https://www.brusselstimes.com/231363/belgium-will-not-send-howitzers-to-ukraine-due-to-unreasonable-prices I'm quite sure, that more and more politicians will start looking on how much support costs them.

There have been reports of corruption in Ukraine, when it comes to various aid reaching the country. (it tends to land now in private stashes for resale) There are also worries regarding arms, that is transferred there. https://www.dw.com Europol warns of weapons falling into the wrong hands after the war The European police agency Europol is planning to launch an international working group to prevent criminals from getting hold of the masses of weapons that have been sent to Ukraine, once the war is over. "At some point the war will be over. We want to avoid a situation like the one that followed the war in the Balkans 30 years ago," Europol Director Catherine De Bolle told the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, referencing the wars that broke out after the collapse of Yugoslavia. "The weapons from this war are still being used by criminal groups today," she added. Europol aims to keep track of journeys made by terrorist and violent extremist groups to and from Ukraine.

@BruceVC All this is true, hence i mentioned that it will take some time, but the moves are already there. From a China mouthpiece. Global centrals banks are cutting their US dollar reserves, and rising unilateralism, trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts have accelerated this trend in recent years, putting the US dollar's global hegemony at risk, Zhou said.The reduction in China's holdings underscored that the country's resistance to the hegemony of the US dollar as a reserve currency has strengthened, Tian Yun, former vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

A bit over the top, but some of it made me chuckle.

When did I say Russian economic world order? What I did say, that this weaponization of USD and strong display of using trade politically, even though not in direct conflict, will cost US currency its position as a global reserve status within 5 to 10 years. The first canary in a coal mine are increasing bilateral currency trades and trades for resources skipping USD. Then, the wider adoption of non-SWIFT alternatives, especially in Asia. China reducing exposure in USDs for its reserves, etc.

Maybe I'm missing something from the last week? https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/germany-and-italy-approved-russian-gas-payments-after-nod-from-brussels/ https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/germany-italy-gas-russia-rouble/

You still have a couple of months of waiting As for Russia, it is dwfinately not sunshine amd rosses, but I do not recall them defaulting, even though PIMCO would really like those CDS they bought just before the war. You still have EU countries pying for Russian gas, now in rubbles, and Germany saying that there will not be sanctions on gas discussed. It seems EU is hoping that tanker based Oil can be replaced easier, they forget that it is not so easy to have OPEC increase their output. Meanwhile Russian oil (cheaper) will be shipped to India and China We still did not hit the food prices crisis in its full swing, so lets wait fpr Autumn. Components for batteries and semiconductors are already suffering. I believe construction materials as well. There is a reason why Biden called Powell to the Oval office for today.

Something to ponder on. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-The-EU-Plan-To-Ban-Russian-Oil-Could-Cause-Stagflation.html I still aim with my thesis for end of Q3 early Q4 rapid changes in policies, should the Ukraine war persist until then.

Not sure, where to ask this as it is a bit of a side of politics and has more to do with courts, but what do you think of court cases, that are high public profile to be televised in the same way like the AH vs JD? I read some more 'radical' side, and i think there is a point, where such high profile cases, if closed, tend to be misrepresented to broader public. https://pjmedia.com/culture/megan-fox/2022/05/29/why-we-cant-let-amber-heards-melodramatic-whining-about-internet-abuse-close-american-courtrooms-n1601939

Seems that ecpnomic costs are also becoming a problem on US side. A traditionally hawkish org, turns skeptical on aid. https://heritageaction.com/press/ukraine-aid-package-puts-america-last

Interesting PoV from one of Fund's managers https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/ukraine-a-new-narrative-as-europe-unravels/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/ Narrative cracking to support some concessions and end of war?

The latter is why a strong lobby in US exists exactly to oppose the NOPEC. Mid to Long term it might do much more damage to the US companies than the US could gain from it.