Darkpriest

Some pro-Russian propaganda piece... https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-war-has-just-begun

It was meant as a joke, no one serious thought NZ would make a significant impact. The US and EU stockpiles per CNBC, thats another case

Behind UKs decision - paywalled https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e In essence, spike in yields caused insufferable pension funds losses and margin calls. Expect similar in US. Although bonds sell off in US also stopped after BoE panicked

I know this will be a bit funny, but New Zealand said they cannot support UA any longer with equipment, because what UA wants, they don't have it anymore and it would take months to procure. They mentioned though that they might still send something, what UA will ask for and they will have it available

Well anyway, Bank of England throws a towel and intervenes in the Bond market, before it even started a real fight with inflation Still, a long period of Stagflation is a better end result than a full blown debt crisis. I expect ECB to fold soon as well, as the current sell off so far was at a level of Eurozone crisis. All eyes on J. Powell today... If he will join the club to help stabilize crashed debt and fx markets.

Yeah, Yuan was bound to fall, as the housing bubble in China got out of hand and started to fall apart since last year. The USD str only accelerates the fall. Same as Japan and the MMT fail with BoJ policy and Yen. Both of the countries have been selling US TSY trying to fix their CCY by some form of fixing or selling USDs China also was vocal about US policies hurting the currencies and that rest of the world pays for US policy failures as they right now export inflation from USA to other areas of the World.

Abkut the narrativea, I agree with this guy on a lot of points https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/changing-the-narrative-one-lie-at-a-time/

Sure, I wonder how many people in EU will keep wanting to support that though. While we should be doing that, the issue is, as UK case shows, you cannot reslove current issues with more debt as central banks are hell bent on dealing with inflation and currency devaluations. You will only make things worse and you will get elected more radical, less UA helping governments. EU certainly cannot afford much more 'aid'.

I'll bite this. 1) Oil - I've mentioned that the rising oil price will break economies, I've said that at 130, the next recession is guaranteed. We did not reach 140+ ONLY BECAUSE China went into a semi shutdow on economic activity with their 0 COVID policy, and at the same time Biden has been draining SPR as otherwise the midterms would be a garbage for Dems. 'Paper' Oil market currently is out of sync with realities of the Supply side and while in the USD terms Oil seems to be cheaper, this is largely a factor of the ultra strong USD (keeps getting higher to new historic heights at least per Bloombergs dollar index). Sauds have warned a couple times that the current price is distorted and too low. For non-USD countries, the lower USD price is of little value when their currencies crater against the USD. They still pay a lot for Oil in terms of local purchasing power. Guess what, at some point SPR MUST be refilled and China re-opens. Edit: for historic context look at SPR in the 5y range https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_ending_stocks_of_crude_oil_in_the_strategic_petroleum_reserve#:~:text=Basic Info,31.19% from one year ago. The 140 was also a Goldmans estimate and some of the banks are now still even more aggresive on the Oil price than mine 100-110 range for the mid winter. Some are at 125. OPEC+has been consistently delivering quatas below the target and recently they approved a significant reduction to the supply side. 2) Not sure how you describe the current state of EU economy if not crushed by the energy prices resulting from the gas crunch... (and high oil price in EU terms). I mean, this is an end of Q3 and how much worse it has to get on the EU debt/currency/stocks if this is not enough? And I've been pointing to end of Q3/beginning of Q4 2022 from at least mid 2021 on this forum for a major economic crisis. 3) I believe i mentioned this to be a target for 5-10y fwd as a result of USD caused turmoils and lack of trust in political safety (few want to be allowed to be blackmailed). The move to more commodity centric power structure is also described by top dogs in financial markets, see people like Zoltan P. 4) Well, the BRICS is certainly not being dissolved, and as long as Russia is at War, this will not progress further. However, Russia has not been cut off from the global markets and is still able to do a lot of business. It still has some pull in politics due to being a natural resources giant. It definately did not collapse as people predicted, although I had make jokes about a flash crash of R(o)uble as well. I'm seriously worried here, that people do not even read things or see who is the article sourced from and posted on the ZH page. I'll write about the rest of your commentary later on. It's already a wall of text

For the 'unbelievers' such as @xzar_monty, i present you also some more freebies... https://www.marketwatch.com/story/true-carnage-stock-market-selloff-wipes-13-trillion-in-market-cap-off-broad-u-s-benchmark-11664307419?mod=home-page Now, the how much more pain before the bottom we hit, depends on the Oct earnings season, especially the fwd guidance by the companies. If those will be in majority misses against expectations, and we see no intervention by central bankers to calm down the debt / fx markets, stocks will crater on the P/E catching up its correlation to some other metrics and VIX will explode higher to catch up to MOVE. Looking by latest production increase withdrawal by Apple, the fwd guidance looks to be grim. All brought to you by Dems stimmies in 2021, Fed Powel chicken in 2021 to hold his chair, and goading Russia by US and UK, which led to invasion of Ukraine, and then Western economies crippling themselves with sanctions against the commodities giant - Russia. Like a clockwork... My mantra of end of Q3/early Q4 crash... How are your friends in banking feeling on the sentiment now @BruceVC?

It might, but it sure does give a field day, should you look at it in the vacuum. Looking however at parties, who benefit the most, US is up there, next to Ukraine and to less extent Poland. Unfortunate for the wholse situation is the fact that this ex-Minister has really good ties with US political class, especially dems. I suspect that this may change soon, or we will hear the old story of 'my account got hacked' Some 'tinfoil' theory is that this was a price of UA for bleeding more of their people. To make sure that gas does not flow to EU without UA and Poland routes. This would block the incoming winter hesitance and pressure on UA. Again, unfortunately coming coincidentally at the same time when the spat over UA transit escalates.

The ****? Former Polish Foreign affairs minister said what? Implying US is behind the sabotage? Can't be true... I mean it can, but damn... Can't believe it. Most likely some lapse of mind and lack of political awareness... He beat even Truss in the race to the bottom of intelectual cesspool. Ape level of awareness...

Not that high due to recession and current debt issues, but it will go north of 100 around mid winter. 100-110 range, but going higher is still possible, if EU will have to burn oil instead of gas for energy needs.

Because you most likely do not have subscribtions to TSY auction services or i would be surprised if you are not paywalled even on Bloomberg. I guess providing a lin with free info is bad... Check your local bond market and fx rate, plus check your local stock market, and lastly check your local goods and services prices... and owners of businesses sentiment...

Meanwhile, things are crashing bad. I expect global central banks to intervene by the end of next week... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gruesome-tailing-2y-auction-sends-yields-session-high-10y-399 Otherwise 2008 will be peanuts...

You do not need subs, you can have a good divers team with the right equipment. That's why it can be anybody... Three theories appear. 1) Russians, to put a blme on someone and be able to escalate. Although it does seem counterproductive as they lose leverage of being able to pump gas at will. 2) Ukraine, to make sure that EU will be trapped and will have to work out alternatives for RU gas. They have divers capable of such feats. 3) US, as Biden said, that they will make sure NS2 will never start to operate. This would nake sure EU is tight on US energy leash. They for sure have the means. More tinfoily 4) Poland, to put the gas pipe on Poland soil to be more crucial and gwt rid of the thorn that NS was... Current Gov is crazy and very anti-German. They have teams capable of such feats 5) some Eco freaks, who want 'greenification' of energy in EU. Since it is near Denmark, Sweden, some freaks like that live there, although being capable of such a feat is very questionable. Really, hard to say, who gains the most. EU, especially Germany, loses the most though...

That is, if there will not be another mysterious accident at LNG terminal in US whivh put it off line for two months this summer. Btw, in coincidence Ukraine pursues arbitrage even harder on fees from Gasprom at the time when those leaks got out of hand. I think they are playing this hand badly as Russia said it will hold UA pipeflows should they continue to do that. Gas prices already go vertical... And the winter apparently is coming sooner, at least based on the forecasts for EU for the next two weeks Edit: you also need to be able to unload such capacities and trun liquid into gas again... Imagine if something happens at one of such stations in EU Edit 2: in case there was a contingency to use oil for gas, think again... OPEC+ informed on heavy cuts, so the price is prompt for going up at a rapid pace again... I've been telling that this eco war will be most deatructive to EU and harmful to US and Russia

"It's just statistics"

Yeah... If someone sabotaged Russian pipelines to EU, then expect accidents soon around Norways pipelines, etc.

Import failed states, become failed states?

True, might accidentally fall from the sky on a Russian soil, given the state of some of the equipment, but would the missile had well maintained targetting and delivery mechanism? There is a risk there too!

Seems Oil cap already questioned? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/eu-countries-plan-to-delay-russian-oil-price-cap-amid-divisions?srnd=premium-europe

This will be a one big hot spot and everything might be on the table. Saw this somewhere. Now, I wonder if Russians will pull it off and lift a strat bomber in the air, loaded with the munitions and tell UA to cease fire and withdraw. I expect a really bad scenario. They might want to wait for some good weather conditions to make sure that potential fallout will not reach NATO soil, but even that is not given if there are mad ruskies at the helm...

Sure, although i did not call her for being a specific gender. That's gross misinterprretation of the adjective i've used and the situation. It was aimed at the person and qualities of a character. If she was a male I would probably used a gender specific BD-DH.

Let me expand this PoV a bit. Right now ECB is trying to keep the spread between bonda of different countries of EUR zone tight by selling less toxic and buying more toxic bonds. Italy right now hs about 150% debt to GDP, meaning their bonda are the most toxic out there. The Right wing, populistic government will have to do something to deal with worsening economic situation. It has two doors: 1) Rely on EU and ECB, against both of which they were quite vocal about, and where some policies really do not allign well. They are most likely do the same thing as Truss atempted in UK. Spend your way out of the crisis. This will not work, will crash IT bonds and drag EUR with it, and once the IT bond yields will skyrocket, IT debt crisis will be bigger than Greece in times of infamous PIIGS. The issue is, Lagarde and Von der L will happily let the right wing gov to crash... Until another early election. 2) Keep sticking to 'EU elites' and say that "sanctions need to end as IT suffers more than Russia on sanctions and migrants are still flooding Italy". This rheotric will be accepted by their suppprters and IT will join Orban in anti sanctions club I believe the option 2 is more likely, but that's an old cynic in me... If you want to understand how badly Truss effed up, read this blog. I value this guys cool headed approach with a dose of UK humor. https://morningporridge.com/blog/blains-morning-porridge/the-uks-monumental-policy-mistake-how-bad-will-it-get/