Darkpriest

I'm not sure, if this is smart and what is the point of making lifemore miserable for people living in Kalinsgrad area. Seems like goading Russia. Sanctions on that part have zero impact on Russia, but have impact on regular people there, and give an ample reason for Russia to treat this as a hostile action and goad them to invade baltics... https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-just-implemented-risky-anti-russia-measure-could-trigger-ww3-few-are-taking-notice

Some summary of a Russian PoV https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eu-backs-ukraines-european-dream-putin-says-sanctions-cost-bloc-400bn-warns-fertilizer

Got this, but I have not been looking at food recently in details, so i would not say it's 'checked'. Autumn carnage is guaranteed same as next years food inflation. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/turkey-russia-say-3-ukrainian-ports-can-now-be-accessed-grain-ships I'm more focused on credit and equities recent days plus energy.

@BruceVC On the gas front, this might be more interesting for you. https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/after-putin-xi-call-gazprom-ceo-pledged-energy-stability-russias-friends

I wonder what was discussed unofficially with Zelensky. Germany will be having issues should gas flow fall further. I'm sure our German speaking friends might translate this better than me providing some broad summary https://rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/bundesnetzagentur-zu-gazprom-muessen-speicher-dringend-fuellen-heizvorgaben-fuer-vermieter-senken_aid-71367327

@BruceVC Once this hits more pundits in the face, especially once midterms will be closer and dems will be grilled over spending on foreign affairs and arms instead of helping fight off recession, UA is lost. https://youtu.be/JprXag6b9IM

Ehhh, even Reuters starts to get it that this will be a rather trying season... https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/market-meltdown-lays-bare-europes-divisions-2022-06-16/

I will just point out to ECB or FED last year talking that the inflation tick is transitory... Or just how often they have been revising their prognosis... Problem is, ECB cannot say in their forecasts with current policy anything different that inflation will come down etc. because they would oppenly admit they are breaking their mandate... I smirked at todays emergency panic meeting, which was a nothing but admiting ECB is cornered between tightening policy and mking sure that fragmentation in bonds will not break up EUR. They've mentioned that they will create a tool, yet no details on it at all... No agreement on the emergency meeting...

Agree with Portugal PM here https://www.ft.com/content/1b8abda1-4670-4c01-8ae9-bd90c9647d5d

I do not think it is inaccurate and inconsistent from other ones of his. As he said, it's much more complex.

@BruceVC EU simply has no money to give and EUR zone will have very soon a very real soverign debt issue. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-will-ecb-contain-fragmentation-risk-euro-area-bond-markets-2022-06-14/ US is not much better, especially if FED will hike 75 or a shocking 100 today to try contain the inflation. At least everyone was happy when they were locking people down when it was no longer needed (anything from Nov 2020 onward) and printing money to give stimmies nd other hand outs....

It's rare for me to say this as faith and logic/numbers are usually quite far apart, i do agree with Pope's assessment. There are trends of oversimplification to have people feel good and be able to easily be on the good side of the good vs evil, but the real picture is rarely if ever that simple and there are a lot of various interests at play. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pope-doubles-down-ukraine-war-comments-russian-invasion-was-provoked

You've just provided example, that US would feel threathened should Mexico invite Russians to build bases like the ones they just got approved to deploy in Nicaragua. I'm not saying that Russia was right to wage war, however you should also not dismiss their concerns, especially when something as simple as agreed Minsk accords were not followed through by UA side for so many years. I'm saying, that US and UK diplomats are ****, and have no idea how to run a diplomatic discourse... US is also doing a similar mistake around Taiwan. China clearly stated that weaponizing Taiwan will lead to escalation, and US is even more hypocritical, as they mention they agree with One China policy, yet on the other hand they want to support Taiwan on its own?

Something I've missed earlier or skipped due to how odd politicaly it would be, but it grabs an attention now as a possible vector to change politics in Asia. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/test-russia-iran-india-trade-route-highlights-shifting-geopolitics

Well... with a few more days like today and some shock in the economies/markets in the West, the Ukraine topic will vanish by the end of the month... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage I still keep my view that it will be post Q3 earnings and forward guidance season, which will create a true economic and social turmoil, but it might be an interesting summer ahead as well. Ukraine will be a sacrifice on an altar of trying to look strong agains a Russian bully, and this geopolitics is 80% fault of incompetent UK and US admins, which pushed Ukraine towards conflict by giving a false sense of security (as they needed to look strong and deflect politics from domestic issues) . Instead, should UA recognize and implemented original Minsk accords (autonomies of regions within UA) and accepted no NATO access condition, they would be much better off and we also in the West would be much better off economically. Now Ukraine will be devasteted in whatever state the stalemate will stabilize (most likely a whole south-east lost), with its economy crumbled, no EU access and no financial aid. Militarly they will also be depleted with 0 chances for NATO access. The large amount of freebies are not coming, amd thdir own stockpiles are runnig near depletion. (other than munitions, resources need to be conserved https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kyiv-suspends-exports-ukrainian-gas-coal-fuel-oil-2022-06-13/)

Ehhh... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-quietly-urges-russia-fertilizer-deals-to-unlock-grain-trade

Russiana deploying closer to US. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nicaragua-gives-permission-for-russian-troops-to-enter-country/#app I wodner what would happen, if Mexico would allow Russian bases.

After bombing it, and stealing assets, which would allow to invest in proper infrastructure? (Not that it would help as it seems no business wants to go there after such a great retreat of US from that country and no deals securing assets on site) Lets look at other great places of US interventions in ME and Africa in the last 30 years and how well they are doing after those.

Afghanistan

Like they have in Western countries when it does not fit them?

@Mamoulian War I forgot to link earlier this segment, which broadly and indirectly explains why there will be no ramp up of production in oil/gasoline in US and by extension in the broader West. Those dimwit politicians and their opinion is not worth the paper they write it on or tape they are recording on (and in the current age, that says a lot)

If I recall, they progresively make it easier to keep foreign currency and trade for it. I am a fair distance from Russia and last time i had a contact from a trusted friend in Russia was in my DotA days...

Seems Rusia is well in control of their currency and prices in their economy. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/russian-monetary-policy-reverts-pre-ukraine-war-levels-after-bigger-expected-rate-cut Now, the real impact will be in GDP and availability of some goods and services. Question is, will they care and how much will they?

The Ukraine topic will vanish from the front of media attention, midterms in US, so economy and inflation will be fron and center there. Expect a turmoil on EU borders due to migrants, plus internally high costs of living, high food prices and energy costs and PIGS going into economic, debt related issues again Today's market summary... Tic-toc-tic-toc... Countdown to October/November ticking. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soaring-cpi-crushes-peak-inflation-narrative-sparks-global-turmoil

I wonder what our US friends think of this view. https://realinvestmentadvice.com/social-security-whistling-past-the-96-trillion-graveyard/ It's largely within my predictions view as the changes to demographics and workforce participation have been not really in line with economy growth built on perpertual debt and a vision that you can borrow more and more currently and expect to offset it with future revenues. Economy started looking more like a Ponzi scheme and you milk while you can and invest in hard, tangible assets.