Darkpriest

One thing, she mentioned support 'recently' , but when you look at her 2014 comments, she was against sanctions then. I have some level of cynical view, that this view will soon re-emerge.

Btw, now with changes in Itally, Hungary is more openly calling for end of sanctions on Russia by the end of the year. I expect in 2-4weeks time Italy will be asking for end of sanctions as well. Other countries' resolve might get tested as well... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-24/europe-s-first-cold-snap-is-early-test-for-continent-in-crisis

@BruceVC Not sure what is there to laugh about... https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pound-flash-crashes-500-pips-record-low-amid-global-fx-carnage I cant sleep. The magnitude of damage is beyond what I've been looking on previously....

There is little doubt, that this war doesn't go according to the Kremlin's plans. It was made unwinnable when the Kiev was a target. Should Russians focus all efforts from the start on the belt they still control now, we would probably be already after the conflict. Now, in economic terms, the war is more destructive to Western economies than it is to the Russian one. As in clockwork (end of Q3 beginning of Q4), we are about to experience a global crisis and a last hurrah of the USD. FED is trapped and too late to the game, and has to raise rates. Economies are still weak, EU is in shambles on its own wish with all the policies and sanctions, and Truss is probably the worst choice UK could have made after Boris (todays plan just confirms that) For those more interested in what's goin on, read this summary. It's simple enough for people who have at least some interest in economy and markets. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash For non-ZH readers, free BBG article via yahoo -> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-risks-breaking-point-201642016.html Now, in terms of impact on the EU, you will see more and more 'nationalists' coming to power, especially at the time of economic crisis and with more migrants inflows. Even Sweden turned right, Italy is about to go as well. France avoided that barely, due to bad timing of election and previous connections to Putin. Russia will send those conscripts to secure land after referendums. They want to hold south belt to Crimea as a status quo and their war loot. UA topic is about to vanish from main points of media interests. Give it until the end of year tops. In Europe, economic woes will take the front pages. (inflation, crashed currencies, stocks, unafordable energy and heating prices, unafortable food and poor food security outlook for 2023 - see this years poor global harvest data and high cost of production and processing of food in EU). Green policies are now dead, as Europe spends more and more on ship freight of energy resources, which contributes to more emissions and is probably also not enough to create security in the energy. Oil price caps just means that there will be less oil for the 'West' or EU will be buying resold Russian Oil from China/India same as they are doing now with LNG. It may be even enough to brinng back oil prices above 100, something that Sauds would love to see, as oil now crashed on global recession fears Anyway too many topics to write about

I think you are grossly overestimating the negative impact on Russia, unless you believe you can isolate it from Asian trading partners, which include China, India Iran, Pakistan, plus a lot of African states and South American states. Meanwhile the social unrest might redraw political map fairly soon in the EU. Imagine, if this happens https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/europes-nightmare-scenario-comes-true-energy-bills-rise-eu2-trillion-will-reach-20 Anyway, back to my cave. Enjoy the ride.

So in other words, lets print more worthless money and create even more mess? A guy from this article sums it up pretty well. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-has-pushed-europe-inflationary-depression-and-currency-collapse Btw, what is the cost of backstopping the European economy? Is it already more than dmg to the Russian one? Btw. The October/November approaches, and I stick to this timeframe from hmm... March?

Seems some of th missiles flew over the Island? Again, as US admin openly ignores other superpower's 'red line' for domestic publicity and after the Russia experience I would not rule out the Taiwan invasion or at least a full effective blockade and isolation, as China sees Taiwan and its territorial waters as its own. The information flow from the politbureau and news mouthpieces like Global Times - it seems all options are in place. ----------- Taiwan's Defense Ministry described the latest PLA actions as essentially a "maritime and aerial blockade." Meanwhile, Fox News' Lucas Tomlinson observes that "48 Chinese military aircraft, mostly fighter jets, have now buzzed Taiwan over the past two days." A little less than half of these were reported by Taiwan's defense ministry as having crossed the "median line" - which it should be recalled Chinese state mouthpiece Global Times said has now ceased to exist.

Basically that Harvard and Exeter Uni scientists found that 'UBI' does more harm than good to social and economic behaviors, and in the end is making people worse off. And here is the kicker, they were shocked by the results as they all thought prior to experiment on the control group, that it would improve how people act and feel.

Need to burst your bubble... UBI is evil... https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-high-cost-of-free-money-harvard-exeter-study-stimulus-handout-low-income-well-being-health-personal-agency-poverty-covid-11658166372

The point here is, that this still gives Russia ability to threathen shut off, while also already dealing out some pain to EU economies. If you shut down to zero, you lose some leverage, as the only way to go from zero, is up.

Gazprom Russia already announced Force Majeure towards NS1 amd Germany. Seems 22 non-restart becomes reality. At the same time Rhine river is at lowest in 15 years, limiting transer of goods via waterway. Looks like Germany is in for some serious pain.

@Gorth More eco woes after todays reports https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-policy-error-imminent-soaring-cpi-sparks-drastic-yield-curve-inversion More banks realligning to have H2 2022 with recession as a base case. I wonder how quickly before midterms Ukraine will vanish from the topic. Seems Sauds are also not willing to put US over Russia when it comes to energy markets.

@BruceVC Seems someone had read your mind at ZH and created an article of exactly what they think will happen based on various opinions and analytics from funds and banks, should gas not be back online after July 22 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-braces-europes-july-22-doomsday

I guess you know something they dont https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-energy-gas-crunch-nord-stream-shutoff-ukraine-war/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-12/worst-of-global-energy-crisis-may-be-ahead-iea-s-birol-warns

Yes, and the botched respons of too long lockdowns and too much money tossed as stimmies etc, just created a situation, where there is little room to act, as the standard opus moderandi of lowering rates and printing money is hardly doable with high inlation on board.

If Russia will not resume gas deliveries in 10 days to Germany, then you will experience it. Meanwhile, some soft data from US. https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-small-business-optimism-outlook-crashes-record-low-yield-curve-inverts-most

Reserve currency will not be affected this year or even next one. The period of 5-10ys is the time window. (this is the viewpoint presented by Epoch Times so scale down the drama level, but it shows what is the general direction those countries want to move into) https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-and-russia-want-replace-us-dollar-brics-currencies Currently, most of investors do what they were conditioned to do and what algos were built to do, i.e. Things go bad, run for a USD (it's like pavlov syndrome) The recession and main realization is still locked in for the end of Q3/earnings reporting in October. (Unless war in Ukraine ends and oil and gas trading resumes from Russia to EU) For example, jobs are not as rosey as you would think from the last gov payrolls report https://www.fa-mag.com/news/goldman-says-u-s--payroll-gains-overstate-job-growth-68702.html And banks are starting to communicate recession as base case for 2023 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-now-forecasts-global-recession-12-months

I'm not sure how closely you've been watching eco news, but given by various metrics, including panic buying of USD, where US economy is also under inflationary pressures and has technical recession with two negative GDP prints Q to Q, the Western way of life is going to really struggle and Europeans will pay the highest price... (ZEW just printed lowest index since 2011 and not far from the lows of 2008?) On another note, this seems to be own ZH editorial. While the language is not ideal, points they make are fairly accurate. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-high-alert-french-minister-says-total-shutdown-russian-gas-likely https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/social-peace-great-danger-germany-quietly-shutting-down-energy-crunch-paralyzes-economy https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-yields-oil-and-gold-slide-german-confidence-plummets-2011-lows-euro-hits-parity

People are not keen on letting their habbits die... I wonder how much of that is being funded by increasing credit, and more debt on credit cards. People tend to go into excessive debt, which they later cannot repay rather than stop doing something that they are used to and consider a mandatory part of their life.

Now you've got me guessing what is? I was expecting that people talk more about high cost of living, potential rationing of energy and heating, first trade deficit in a very long time, etc.

Interesting approach, in times of real possibility of food shortages, a country decides to destroy their own food production...

And this is the article about analytics I've mentioned a page ago https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-germany-gas-idAFL8N2YF1X1 @Mamoulian War I'm quite sure that this is far beyond the pain treshold that Germans or for that matter any country would be willing to pay for "not their" war.

You are very optimistic on the people part. I'm more inclined to believe that the further away from the border the more ignorant the people are and even some, who are aware of this, will be more interested with their own budgets and the way of life. I doubt people will be happy to lose warm water on demand or having to waer thicker clothing all day, etc. https://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_nt/infoline_nt/wirtschaft_nt/article239693719/Umweltsenator-Hamburg-koennte-Warmwasser-rationieren.html (again in German) btw, i wonder if @Lexxhas some more insights from German politics as the conflict persists and touches Germans more and more.

Gas and Nuclear devlared Green in EU. The Gas part is critical here, as it may open up pulling LPG powered vehicles as green as well to help collapsing auto industry in EU. It also opens up potential to invest in LPG infrastructure, without which, business will be keeling over. Or it may open NS2 soon after the war ends.. (a cynic in me says this)

Of course that China will utilize this to gain position on Russia, their and India's businesses are already filling the vacuum, including electronics. Now, in worst case scenarios, by German analysts, Germany GDP could drop 6-12% equaling to 5-6mln workplaces lost... I doubt they are ready for such sacrifices. Already the global recession is being priced in aand appearing in more and more bases cases for late year 2022 (as I've predicted for late Q3), commodities are falling as a result of demand destruction, liquidity issues, and generally poor economic outlook. Oil even dropped below 100 amd that's with OPEC missing on prod quotas. As for aid, talks are great, but these need to materialize and i do not see that happening. What I do see, is everyone hoping that this can end before winter time and that UA will understtand they cannot 'win' and will conceed before the winter time. Meanwhile, military aid by country so far. (to put perspective of 9bln bailout in Germany, and that's without full cut off and only first of the energy providers)