Whats the Chance we reach all the stretchsgoals ?

[JerekKruger]

I'm betting that they're already factoring Ydwin into the production. They can't afford to wait and see whether or not the stretch goal will be met. 

 

Or they could judge what the latest date by which they can start working on Ydwin and still release Deadfire on time, then set that date as the deadline by which slacker funds count towards stretch goals. I think I agree with Rorschach about you being over optimistic.

[Mygaffer]

TL;DR: is seems likely, but we'll have to wait a while to be sure.

 

LordCrash posted a comment on this question at the Fig site. He seems quite positive, mainly because of an interview with Feargus over at Gamebanshee. Basically, the Paypal-funding for PoE I collected around $ 1,000,000; so $ 600K for PoE II seems reasonable, I guess. However, do bear in mind that the Fig-campaign for PoE II attracted less 'normal' backers than the KS for PoE I. Still, some of those 'missing' KS-backers might stil back PoE II via the PayPal portal, I guess.

Woah, you mean PoE collected a further $1m *after* the Kickstarter campaign through Paypal?

 

That's awesome and something I didn't know. While this game definitely saw less traditional backers, by about half, even if the PayPal backers back at about half the rate that gets us damn close.

 

I love the portrait of Ydwin they showed and I'd love for my female Orlan monk to have a go at a personal relationship with her if possible so fingers crossed.

 

I also find fishing in games to be a kind of guilty pleasure, from Torchlight 2 to Stardew Valley to Breath of Fire, I always like playing the fisherman in my RPGs.

 

EDIT: Also us backers can certainly talk to interested friends and family and internet communities to let people who might be interested in backing but didn't know about the game to come and be a slacker backer. It can't hurt.

Edited February 27, 2017 by Mygaffer

[Mikeymoonshine]

So the 1mill was all/mostly from paypal? Maybe there is hope. Depends on stuff like timing and hype. There were an awful lot of people asking about paypal. 

[JerekKruger]

I hope that, as more details are released through updates, and Obsidian do more interviews with people like RPS, we'll see spikes in paypal backers. There are some 30,000+ PoE backers who didn't back Deadfire, I hope that a significant number of them will back eventually.

[Mikeymoonshine]

Hopefully some will, Project eternity was on KS during the heyday of crowdfunding campaigns tho and it was a new thing for Obsidian. POE2 proves that the result was a success and that there are plenty of people willing to back/invest in future games but that doesn't mean it will get close to the same amount of backers. 

 

Still I didn't back project eternity (didn't even know about it til some time after) but I backed this because I loved the game so much. So maybe there really are tons of people who were waiting for paypal option and hopefully bew backers will be attracted before the deadline. It's all up in the air at the moment. 

Edited February 27, 2017 by Mikeymoonshine

[JerekKruger]

Yeah, I think the reduction in number of backers is likely, in part, due to people becoming jaded (or at least less enthusiastic) about crowdfunding. Not necessarily PoE's crowdfunding (which was generally pretty well run) but crowdfunding in general. Still, some of those might choose to back closer to release if they like what they see.

[Notshauna]

The lack of Paypal through the Fig campaign is no doubt a large factor on the loss of backers, that and the fact that investing option cannibalize high end backers. Ydwin is enough of a carrot on a stick for us to get the extra 600k, especially when a lot of people were waiting for Paypal.

[mumbogumshoe]

The lack of Paypal through the Fig campaign is no doubt a large factor on the loss of backers, that and the fact that investing option cannibalize high end backers. Ydwin is enough of a carrot on a stick for us to get the extra 600k, especially when a lot of people were waiting for Paypal.

 

You couldn't back through paypal on kickstarter either. They made paypal available earlier last time around but none of the roughly 74,000 kickstarter backers was a paypal backer. I think you're seriously overestimating the number of people just waiting to back via paypal.

[Mikeymoonshine]

 

The lack of Paypal through the Fig campaign is no doubt a large factor on the loss of backers, that and the fact that investing option cannibalize high end backers. Ydwin is enough of a carrot on a stick for us to get the extra 600k, especially when a lot of people were waiting for Paypal.

 

You couldn't back through paypal on kickstarter either. They made paypal available earlier last time around but none of the roughly 74,000 kickstarter backers was a paypal backer. I think you're seriously overestimating the number of people just waiting to back via paypal.

 

 

Well, they got like 14 k from KS backers after only like two hours of it being up. So there were certainly quite a few people waiting for paypal. That could have been most of them tho, it's difficult to tell. 

[mumbogumshoe]

I'm sure there were, quite a few people have been asking for it again and again. Those people have been waiting for it quite some time and it's likely that they would've headed right over and pledged as soon paypal went live. But the reason why there haven't been as many backers this time around is not that paypal wasn't available. There aren't tens of thousands of paypal backers who just couldn't pledge this time. Maybe a couple of thousand, if we're lucky.

Edited February 28, 2017 by mumbogumshoe

[Notshauna]

You couldn't back through paypal on kickstarter either. They made paypal available earlier last time around but none of the roughly 74,000 kickstarter backers was a paypal backer. I think you're seriously overestimating the number of people just waiting to back via paypal.

A lot of people use paypal as their only means for purchasing goods online, only a small subset of individuals could estimate how many people were lost during the campaign because Paypal wasn't an option.

 

 

But on the topic of the thread we don't even know what number we're at right now and when the slacker period will end, so coming up with a guess how likely it is, is just that a guess. Personally I do think we're going to hit all of the goals, and I even think we've already hit 4.5 million.

[Mikeymoonshine]

Seems likely that we've hit 4.5 yeah, and I think 4.75 is very possible considering it's like a month before they move the fig backers over to the backer portal and then there will be some time allowed for people to add extras their pledges. Ydwin tho, will be difficult I think. 

[mumbogumshoe]

I can't say how many people were lost because it took so long to make it available. My guess is that it's not very many and there's still plenty of time for them to come back. What I can say with high confidence is that the reason why there have been so many fewer backers on fig compared to kickstarter a few years ago has little to do with the lack of a paypal option. Again, kickstarter doesn't offer an option to pay via paypal either and there were more than twice as many backers back then. If you want the number of paypal backers from back then, look at the difference between the kickstarter backers and the number on the thank you screen when you start PoE1. That's a bit more than 3,000. We need more than that to get us to the 5 million stretch goal.

 

I agree that it's only guesses right now but so what, one can still try to make good guesses.

Edited February 28, 2017 by mumbogumshoe

[Lorfean]

Yeah it's a shame paypal wasn't available sooner for the potential backers who have no other methods available. I'm guessing at least some of those will have forgotten about the game by now and will end up not pledging (especially if they're just "casual" fans).

 

As for reaching all the stretch goals -- I guess it depends on how long they'll keep the paypal and slacker backer doors open. 4.5m seems inevitable, 4.75 is the one I personally really hope they'll hit, and 5m... I wouldn't mind it too much if they didn't hit that, tbh. They have talked a *lot* about how much time and resources it takes to properly develop companions and now, with the relationships system, that process becomes even more complex. I really like the 7 companions we have and would prefer that group getting all the attention they need. I don't mind Ydwin -- and I think the outcry over her anime / waifu "qualities" or whatever is kind of ridiculous -- but I wouldn't mind her just staying a sidekick. Though I'm afraid that, because of all the noise, Obsidian will feel like they *have* to make her a full-fledged companion... Meh.

Edited February 28, 2017 by Lorfean

[Leeuwenhart]

"NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!"

[FlintlockJazz]

The chances of meeting the stretch goals are a million to one, he said - but still they come!

[mumbogumshoe]

New Slacker Backer update from fig: today we're at §45,219 (paypal not included!). We seem to have arrived at an average of about 7,000 a day. If that holds and we make about an equal amount on paypal we'll get the 5 million if they leave it open until mid-April.

[AndreaColombo]

They've just released an update stating that slacker pledges will count toward stretch goals for 60 days from the end of the Fig campaign. That should put us in the neighborhood of 25th April.

[mumbogumshoe]

They've just released an update stating that slacker pledges will count toward stretch goals for 60 days from the end of the Fig campaign. That should put us in the neighborhood of 25th April.

 

Yeah, that seems doable! Especially since once the fig pledges are over at the backer portal some people might be upgrading their pledge. I'm certainly considering it, after all, new paycheck and all that.

Edited February 28, 2017 by mumbogumshoe

[AndreaColombo]

Especially since once the fig pledges are over at the backer portal some people might be upgrading their pledge.

 

I know I'm doing that for sure. The only question is whether I can fit both the signed art print and additional CE box in my budget before that day

[Icesong]

Hopefully they kick up the promotion of the new backer portal. Even already knowing they had one it took me a minute to find it. 

[mumbogumshoe]

New information! Through the backer portal we have $42,261. So it seems as if we're making about as much there as on fig. We've also almost cleared the 4.5 million stretch goal.

[Karkarov]

I suspect the 4.75 goal is all but a lock, there is absolutely no way we won't get 4.5 mil.  We have a 50/50 shot at the last stretch goal, it is definitely going to come down to the wire.

[mumbogumshoe]

I suspect the 4.75 goal is all but a lock, there is absolutely no way we won't get 4.5 mil.  We have a 50/50 shot at the last stretch goal, it is definitely going to come down to the wire.

 

There's a good chance that something will happen during those 2 months that gives us a bit of a bump. Maybe another small media blitz towards the end. Then we'll lock in that last stretch goal as well.

[Blarghagh]

Hopefully they kick up the promotion of the new backer portal. Even already knowing they had one it took me a minute to find it.

Same.