US Elections 2016

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

He didn't just win he won big. Impressive actually. I was just watching CNN (aka the Clinton News Network) and I thought Donna Braziles head was going to explode. Hillary absolutely MUST have south Carolina now or she is in trouble.

I'm willing to bet after tonight Hillary and Cruz get a lot of donations from Wall Street.

[Oerwinde]

Looking at the CNN results, is it a typo? How can Hillary get 15 delegates with 39% of the vote and Sanders gets 13 with 60% of the vote with them distributed proportionally?

[Barothmuk]

American maths. 

[Darkpriest]

So Trump is winning? Can we expect a new great comedy at the Capitol?

[Meshugger]

Who on earth is this Kasich guy? No one on the morning news seemed to even agree on how to pronounce his name.

[Elerond]

Who on earth is this Kasich guy? No one on the morning news seemed to even agree on how to pronounce his name.

 

He is Ohio's current governor

[Bartimaeus]

distributed proportionally

 

Well, there's your problem...

 

(but on a more serious note, that's also counting superdelegates, of which Hillary currently controls almost roughly half of already - for the time being, anyhow - and she also currently has 6 out of 8 for the state, so it's actually 13 to 9 for normal delegates)

Edited February 10, 2016 by Bartimaeus

[Guard Dog]

Remember this one thing though. The Democrat party is not very democratic. 1/3 of the delegates at the convention are super-delegates. In other words party VIPs, celebrities, etc. They are not beholden to the voting outcomes. From what I’ve read Hillary is expected to get the majority of those so to win at the convention Bernie will need to scoop up at least half of the electoral delegates. That will be a tough row to hoe considering he is a hard sell in the south and west. But momentum counts. Nobody thought Barack Obama was a contender until after Iowa & New Hampshire in 2008.

[kgambit]

 Unlike on the GOP side, 713 of Democrats' 4,764 convention delegates (15 percent) are unpledged super-delegates. By the AP's count last November, Clinton had the support of 359 super-delegates. Since then, according to FiveThirtyEight's endorsement tracker, Clinton has picked up 21 congressional endorsements, for an estimated total of 380. The most recent count has Sanders at 11. 

 

 

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9179

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/12/29/sanders-announces-the-support-of-a-superdelegate-its-his-11th-clinton-has-32-times-as-many/

[Leferd]

Bruce, you can relax.

 

Nate Silver's maths models still has Clinton as the heavy favorite to win the nomination.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-gets-harder-from-here-for-bernie-sanders/

 

DATE STATE CLINTON SANDERS

2/20 Nevada 50.3 28.1

2/27 South Carolina 60.5 29.3

3/8 Michigan 59.9 29.0

3/15 Florida 61.0 26.0

3/15 North Carolina 55.9 28.3

3/15 Ohio 52.8 38.6

4/5 Wisconsin 45.6 43.4

4/26 Pennsylvania 51.4 28.0

6/7 California 46.3 32.9

 

And more importantly, Irish bookmakers (aka the real powerbrokers behind the Hibernian Conspiracy Plots) still has Hillary as the overwhelming odds on favorite over Bernie.

 

Clinton: 1 to 4

Sanders: 10 to 3

 

This means that a degenerate Irishman betting on Clinton needs to wager four potatoes to make a one potato profit. Meanwhile, a different Irishman betting three potatoes on Sanders would make a ten potato profit if he were to inexplicably win the nomination. Betting on Sanders isn't exactly a dead money proposition, but it would be a mammoth upset.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Leferd

[Raithe]

[Volourn]

How long before feminists use that to point out the unequality in pay rates? L0L

[Elerond]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyXrIN9QEr0

 

Repeating same message for 30 years may actually work as long time strategy

[ShadySands]

I dunno how I missed this before

 

Woman Uses Her Obituary To Campaign For Bernie Sanders

Her final wish: "In lieu of flowers, donations may be made to the Bernie Sanders presidential campaign."

Edited February 10, 2016 by ShadySands

[Raithe]

[Malcador]

People trusted politicians before?

[Bartimaeus]

Remember this one thing though. The Democrat party is not very democratic. 1/3 of the delegates at the convention are super-delegates. In other words party VIPs, celebrities, etc. They are not beholden to the voting outcomes. From what I’ve read Hillary is expected to get the majority of those so to win at the convention Bernie will need to scoop up at least half of the electoral delegates. That will be a tough row to hoe considering he is a hard sell in the south and west. But momentum counts. Nobody thought Barack Obama was a contender until after Iowa & New Hampshire in 2008.

 

They are? Numbers I've read put the number of delegates at 4,763, with 712 of them superdelegates - or 15%. Of course, it only takes a tiny bit more than half to secure the nomination, which really means if you control all the superdelegates, you're already close to 30% there...but the thing is, the superdelegates are free to change positions at any time. I don't personally think Sanders will win, unless there is a serious upset upcoming in Nevada and South Carolina, but if he actually does do well, I am pretty certain we should see some of those superdelegates switch sides.

Edited February 10, 2016 by Bartimaeus

[Leferd]

Chris Christie plans to drop out. Ditto Carly Fiorina.

[ShadySands]

I don't think it will be close enough for the superdelegates to make the difference but if I'm (hopefully) wrong I can see there being some fallout. Especially from the crowd already posturing to not support Clinton if Sanders doesn't win. Will it be enough to possibly cost her the general election?    

 

 

Also, here's another perspective (or maybe just wishful thinking) on the superdelegates After Sanders' Big Win in New Hampshire, Establishment Figures Want to Scare You with Superdelegates. Here's Why It's Bull****

Edited February 10, 2016 by ShadySands

[Leferd]

Also, here's another perspective (or maybe just wishful thinking) on the superdelegates After Sanders' Big Win in New Hampshire, Establishment Figures Want to Scare You with Superdelegates. Here's Why It's Bull****

Yup. And Nate Silver agrees.

 

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/697503928724942848?s=17

 

"Not a big fan of lumping delegates and superdelegates together. Super Ds can switch and some will if it looks like Bernie has a mandate."

11:34am - 10 Feb 16

[Meshugger]

 

Just to remind you all that the democratic primary in 2008 had the following results:

 

Obama - 1828 delegates - 428 superdelegates - 17 584 692 votes (47,31%)

Clinton - 1726 delegates - 246 superdelegates - 17 857 501 votes (48,04%)

 

So the race is still quite open.

[Bartimaeus]

Also, here's another perspective (or maybe just wishful thinking) on the superdelegates After Sanders' Big Win in New Hampshire, Establishment Figures Want to Scare You with Superdelegates. Here's Why It's Bull****

Funnily enough, that was literally the article (that I got from reddit) where I pulled the numbers in my previous post from.

[Guard Dog]

It's official, Fiorina & Christie are out.

 

Bom bom bom... another one bites the dust. And another one gone and another one gone and another one bites the dust.

[Wrath of Dagon]

But Christie should have the nation's gratitude for disemboweling the sniveling liar Rubio.

[Guard Dog]

Which horse did you pick WoD? If you've ever said I don't recall. My horse has checked out already.