Turkey shoots down russian jet

[Fighter]

Okay well its good that the airstrikes will continue 

 

I consider myself a military expert but I dont understand the Russian play, anyway I'll be honest I dont really care about the ME and its problems. The whole region needs to take responsibility for there own issues so I was surprised Russia got so involved. Lets see what happens, I dont see a future for Syria under Assad

 

Its interesting Russia considers him the lawful authority....despite his refusal to make political concessions to his own people and him using chemical weapons. But anyway its not the Wests problem 

 

 

I am open to alternatives. But the only alternative I see on the table is something seen in a Mad Max movie.

[Zoraptor]

There might be an alternative if the rebels had some sort of actual unified grouping behind them, but they don't. There's frequent low level fighting between the rebels and indeed ISIS is just rebels who have 'defected' themselves, and where they have integrated commands they're mostly integrated with Al Qaeda. It certainly doesn't help that the main foreign backers all back a different group of religious loons which means that their preferred candidates are literally Al Qaeda (Qatar), literally used to be Al Qaeda (Turkey) and someone who wants to purge Syria of anyone who isn't salafi (Saudi). In Libya at least those disagreements came to violence immediately after the central authority went.

 

 

I consider myself a military expert

 

 

Do it in the true spirit of Bruce:

 

I dont understand [..] the ME.

We know, we know.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Kurds to attempt federation

[Zoraptor]

Doubt it will work out well for them. Nobody else except perhaps for Russia- and they may just be paying lip service to annoy Erdogan- wants it and if it comes to a choice the US will pick Turkey and Russia will pick the government. It also doesn't help that Kurdish territory is overall the sparsest populated and least strategically important areas of Syria held by any faction.

 

It's fine as a negotiation ploy though, and to remind the parties at the peace talks that it isn't just ISIS and Al Qaeda that are missing from them.

[Rostere]

Doubt it will work out well for them. Nobody else except perhaps for Russia- and they may just be paying lip service to annoy Erdogan- wants it and if it comes to a choice the US will pick Turkey and Russia will pick the government. It also doesn't help that Kurdish territory is overall the sparsest populated and least strategically important areas of Syria held by any faction.

 

It's fine as a negotiation ploy though, and to remind the parties at the peace talks that it isn't just ISIS and Al Qaeda that are missing from them.

 

I thought partition of Syria was the US' plan all along.

[Zoraptor]

Not really, the US still wants (at least officially) the whole of Syria rather than a bit, though that is probably more due to them not having viable long term allies there than quaint notions of territorial integrity.

 

The trouble for the US is that they can't have (Syrian) Kurdistan as that would antagonise Turkey- Iraqi Kurdistan is fine though, since Barzani is a Turkish puppet much as he was Saddam's puppet, and while he's a gross embezzler and about as democratic as Saddam he stays loyal to his patrons until someone stronger comes along-  and don't want Jihadistan as that would be ISIS under a different name; nor do they want Western Persia. US allies are quite keen on balkanisation if they can't get the whole thing though, but that requires having their Jihadistan stretch from the Turkish to the Jordanian border, and the Saudi border in Iraq. Not much point otherwise, since their ultimate goal is to cut the shia crescent in half. As such the Syrian Kurds are their direct enemy since they want the ISIS border regions and the rebel pocket around Azaz and partly (anarcho marxist quasi atheists being anathema to salafi nutbars being the other) why even Saudi and Qatari aligned groups are helping the direct Turkish proxies attack the YPG.

 

Absolutely hilarious watching women in western clothes being trotted out by the opposition for the peace talks, meanwhile a CNN reporter is trotting around actual rebel territory in a Niqab.

[Zoraptor]

2 Russian advisors (5 according to ISIS) have likely been killed near Palmyra. There isn't any official confirmation and some room for it being faked, but not that much less doubt than when the pilot got killed in Latakia- if it's faked it's pretty convincingly faked.

[Meshugger]

Every time i hear reports about advisors getting killed/captured in military operations, i always wonder what their real role was.

[Zoraptor]

Probably genuine advisors/ trainers or air support spotters. Syrian tactics have improved immeasurably since the Russian intervention so they've definitely been advising and more effectively than the prior Hezbollah/ Iranian types- albeit the air support helps a lot- and it's a lot easier to call in air strikes to support advances if everyone speaks the same language and is familiar with the same procedures.

 

There won't be regular forces fighting (excluding guarding the air bases) and it's very unlikely there would be special forces directly fighting either. If confirmed it would make 7 deaths for Russia in Syria; 2 from the shootdown (pilot, marine), one suicide, one advisor hit by a mortar, one indeterminate but he was awarded a medal posthumously yesterday and the two today.

[Zoraptor]

Palmyra recaptured by the government from ISIS. It's a city of around 50k with some of the most extensive archaeological sites in Syria many of which have unfortunately been blown up by ISIS; it was originally lost during the extraordinarily bad period the government had about ten months agp. After Qaryatayn to the south is taken the next step would probably be As Sukhna, which is the only significant settlement on the way to either Raqqa or Deir Ez Zor from Palmyra.

[Drowsy Emperor]

I don't see what the end goal for Russia is here. They're not committing enough for a total victory and at this rate the war could drag on for years to come. On the other hand, they can't really leave it like this now that they have invested so much.

Edited March 28, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[Zoraptor]

With that level of commitment and the budget for it coming out of training it doesn't really matter to Russia if it drags on for years. And it is working, since November at least there's been nothing but local, temporary, opposition success versus significant advances by the government. Another year of such advances and the opposition would be practically finished as a formal military force so there isn't any need for the quick success.

 

Troop numbers have never been the primary problem for the government and they are getting and have had significant imported troops. A shambolic and ossified military leadership, corrupt and inept logistics and low morale from poorly equipped and trained conscripts have all been more important than just troop numbers; as shown by Hezbollah who have none of those problems being almost uniformly successful. Most of those problems have been (partly at least) dealt with without adding more troops.

 

And of course Syria makes a very useful bargaining chip for Russia, they can step up their intervention or reduce it for political or PR purposes unrelated to the actual conflict. That's why I rather doubt they're putting anywhere near as much pressure on Assad as many think, once Syria is settled that leverage goes.

Edited March 28, 2016 by Zoraptor

[Chilloutman]

well its great target practice, and from what I read it get major boost to weapon export for russians manufactures. Cost of intervention is around 2 billions dollars, while it generated almost 14 billions in weapons deals. Russia is profiting

[Darkpriest]

There was recently some footage of a Russian tank in Syria with Syrian soldiers inside being hit by a TOW missile and while it was not combat ready the tank and its crew survived and was retreated for repairs. (Although the tank commander jumped out in panic from the tower, but who can blame himwhen his tower gets a direct hit and he has no idea what is the status of the tank)

[Zoraptor]

That was a T90, it has Kontact-5 Explosive Reactive Armour which is designed to defeat TOW's dual warhead, plus the hit was on the best armoured part of the tank. It had the Shtora countersystem but it was off either due to incompetence or maintenance (it can only be operated relatively briefly/ not continuously due to heat/ battery life). It was probably functionally knocked out, ie could not be used further, just not destroyed. You can tell almost instantly the result from videos as rebels cut the video off quickly if the tank isn't destroyed by a hit. Most Syrian tanks have either no/ partial ERA of the old Kontact-1 variety that is now basically useless except against simple RPG rounds, plus are less armoured or have jury rigged partial extra armour so have been very vulnerable.

[Fighter]

Shtora cannot stop TOW-2 or Kornet (some of which the rebels/ISIS may still have). The way it works is by mimicking the light the missile emits by seeing which the launcher optic keeps it on course. But TOW-2 has a xenon light which blinks in a coded pattern and Kornet is laser guided.

 

The missile in T-90 video is TOW-2A.

 

Also the Syrian T-90 are the 1992 version which has lower protection than newer variations but its front armor and reactive armor is still a lot to overcome.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Fighter

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, Shtora probably wouldn't have made much if any difference in those circumstances, it being turned off is more indicative of the government forces not always being as competent as they should be, as were the open hatches. Shtora would definitely help against older missiles or their Chinese/ DPRK knock offs though and there are plenty of them around. They've spent 5 years getting shot for sitting still like they're invulnerable citadels (as here, though at least they had some cover) or charging around wildly or charging into built up areas, and almost always without proper infantry support. Nowadays they probably have the help of Russian helicopters to target ATGM teams but it's still no substitute to proper infantry screens or moving your tank around after a few shots.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Zoraptor

[Darkpriest]

This will be a bit of necromancy, BUT it seems that Turkey president Edrogan has sent an official letter apologizing for shooting down the Russian jet and with hopes to stabilize the relationship with Russia once again...

[BruceVC]

This will be a bit of necromancy, BUT it seems that Turkey president Edrogan has sent an official letter apologizing for shooting down the Russian jet and with hopes to stabilize the relationship with Russia once again...

Funny enough this makes sense, they  are very similar in many ways

 

Neither Putin or Edrogan care much about things like human rights 

[Volourn]

Neither does your precious EU.

[BruceVC]

Neither does your precious EU.

Volo that is an utterly scurrilous and defamatory comment.....you really should be embarrassed. This information below is directly from the EU charter ....I would not be surprised if the EU forum members demand an apology from you...of course the EU cares !!!

 

 

Article 1 Human dignity Human dignity is inviolable. It must be respected and protected.

 

Article 2 Right to life 1. Everyone has the right to life. 2. No one shall be condemned to the death penalty, or executed.

 

Article 3 Right to the integrity of the person 1. Everyone has the right to respect for his or her physical and mental integrity. 2. In the fields of medicine and biology, the following must be respected in particular: the free and informed consent of the person concerned, according to the procedures laid down by law, the prohibition of eugenic practices, in particular those aiming at the selection of persons, the prohibition on making the human body and its parts as such a source of financial gain, the prohibition of the reproductive cloning of human beings.

 

 

Article 4 Prohibition of torture and inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment No one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. 

[Volourn]

Actions speak louder than words.  The fact you think otherwise says everything I need to know. The EU are Nazis. PERIOD. Just look at how pro EU people act - they want to mass murder old people. Human rights. My ass.

[Darkpriest]

Funny, seems that Russian policy is more effective in making the peace in Syria possible than US policy. Even TUrkey now claims they need to work with Russia for Syrian solution...

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkey-says-must-russia-political-solution-syria-100819890--business.html

[Drowsy Emperor]

The actual content of the letter has been debated over but Erdogan is indeed attempting to mend things with Russia. This is a sort of implicit admission that the Syrian adventure is over and that they (Turkey, KSA etc.) lost.

[Elerond]

You know guys that all countries in Europe, except Belarus have signed same rights for humans (european convention on human rights) and abide by rulings of same human rights court (european court of human rights)? This includes all EU member states, Russia and Turkey. Which of course don't mean that all people in those countries care about human rights or aren't willing to take them away from other people, but at least still they can't do so freely and without opposition.