Greece, EU and why we can't have nice things

[213374U]

So I'll not try to talk all high and mighty about what economic policies are right or wrong. Pretending to know better than you lot because I live here. But as a friend I'll say this: don't believe much the Greek government is saying. They are untrustworthy, power hungry twerps. Heck they openly admitted only calling for the referendum to sort out inner-party conflicts.

 

Talk as high and mighty as you please, it's par for the course here. And you probably do know better than us if only because you can read Greek while most of us can't, so I'd personally appreciate your contributions.

 

Regarding your comment about the Greek gov't and SYRIZA, I'm not surprised. Sounds a lot like our own Podemos crowd.

 

Good luck.

[melkathi]

^ Keep the posts coming Melkathi, am really interested in what Greeks are thinking and what they're going through atm.

 

Heh. My mother (who is visiting at the moment) just came back from Lidl. There were three bags of rice left in the whole supermarket. Pasta was mostly sold out, with only two kinds left and those again only a couple of bags each. She said that the place basically looked like the aftermath of a crowd on a panicked stockpiling mission.

What people think really depends on where you are. SYRIZA's core voters are better off inteligentsia (my architect colleagues), civic servants (who migrated over when the socialist PASOK party, which had been buying their support since the junta, fell apart) and teachers. So those are fervent NO supporters.

They are starting to lose ground with the teachers since they assigned Baltas as minister of education - he has never hidden his disdain for the common teacher and for public education, and has been a slap in the face for the people who fought to have the party win the elections.

Private businesses and especially the tourism industry are mostly in the YES crowd. The tourism industry here is ironic. The NO crowd talks about the raise in tourism taxes being a reason to say no, yet the ones who'd pay that tax support the yes *shrug*. Probably alongside my line of thinking: "Lower taxes don't do me any good if I have nothing to be taxed".

Edited July 4, 2015 by melkathi

[BruceVC]

Before Bruce asks me to post in here as the off-topic resident Greek: Hi!

 

And that's mostly all I have to say.

But...

My family has always been extremly politically active. We left Synaspismos when the party mutated into the dreg that is now known as SYRIZA. Many other traditional left families have done the same. As a result there is little of the Left left in that party. A reason I keep out of such discussions. It is a party that labeled itself as Left without any relationship to the believes or ideology. They are an opportunistic pack which realized that a left party was easier to usurp. Yes, because the Greek Left is what Monte described: a bunch that got stuck at student union rethoric level.

Greece is a small country. We know each other. Heck, I had lunch with some of those ministers, lounging in a beautifull garden of a mostly illegally constructed summer house.

 

So I'll not try to talk all high and mighty about what economic policies are right or wrong. Pretending to know better than you lot because I live here. But as a friend I'll say this: don't believe much the Greek government is saying. They are untrustworthy, power hungry twerps. Heck they openly admitted only calling for the referendum to sort out inner-party conflicts.

Melk I'm glad you decided to contribute towards this debate, Hi " waves "  

 

Can you share with us you are voting for and what the general sentiment in your circles  is around Yes or No ?

 

I know it is going to be very close in the vote tomorrow 

[melkathi]

 

Can you share with us you are voting for and what the general sentiment in your circles  is around Yes or No ?

 

 

 

 

 

I am firmly on the Yes side.

My social circles are split between Yes and No (though more in the No) and some undecided or abstaining.

 

The people I know that vote Yes do so for one or more of several reasons:

1) Knowing the party and the people in the government too well

2) Being in the private sector

3) Having been in the "party" since forever (which I guess comes close to 1 above)

Which all boils down to not trusting this government to do a thing right and hoping a Yes vote will get rid of them.

 

The No crowd among my circles seems rallied around:

1) Wounded National Pride

2) Bravado

3) Having no worries as dad pays the bills anyway

 

Mind you this is my circles. I am certain there are people who have reasonable cause to vote No. I even have a friend who seriously believes that a No here will change the whole of Europe for the better.

 

The uncertain / abstain crowd basically has one line of thinking:

If we are voting on whether or not we accept those specific terms, how can the referendum be held when the deadline for those terms is already passed and those terms are no longer on the table? If the question is moot, how can one vote at all?

 

Overall, the No crowd is far more social media savvy. They are also far less opposed to cyber-bullying.

Or real life bullying.

The other day a friend was chased and verbally abused all the way from the metro entrance to the train platform for throwing a No-flyer into the bin.

[Monte Carlo]

Yes or no, do people realise Greece badly needs a new government prepared to rebuild the economy on solid fiscal principles?

 

As long as you've got Syriza, you're screwed. But if they get replaced by more nutcases you'll be even more screwed.

[melkathi]

The Yes crowd wants to see them gone but knows we don't really have any worthwhile people to put in charge.

 

Honestly, Venizelos is probably the best man we have right now. But he could never unite a government behind him anymore. When PASOK had to decide for a new party leader in 2008 they started an internal slander campaign against him that he'd never recover from.

 

But as a friend of mine said the other day over a game of Blood Bowl Team Manager: "You know I have always voted conservatives, but not even I will pretend that Samaras could lead this country."

 

The thing is though: the previous government was terrible. And one had to ask "How much worse could it get?"

Well, now we know.

 

Right now the Yes supporters are not asking for a good government. We'll settle for our simple bad one please. Just take away the dreadful one.

[213374U]

Right now the Yes supporters are not asking for a good government. We'll settle for our simple bad one please. Just take away the dreadful one.

 

(emphasis mine)

 

Yep, if some get their way, you won't get even that.

 

The time between the departure of Tsipras' hard-left Syriza party and new elections would have to "be bridged with a technocratic government, so that we can continue to negotiate," Schulz was quoted as saying.

[Ineth]

 

The time between the departure of Tsipras' hard-left Syriza party and new elections would have to "be bridged with a technocratic government, so that we can continue to negotiate," Schulz was quoted as saying.

 

That does sound kinda scary.

[cirdanx]

 

 

The time between the departure of Tsipras' hard-left Syriza party and new elections would have to "be bridged with a technocratic government, so that we can continue to negotiate," Schulz was quoted as saying.

 

That does sound kinda scary.

 

 

But...they allready had EU friendly technocrats and that didn´t work out either, they just forced greece into even more debt. Personally i believe that greece should default and go back to their own currency. Thats the only way they can go back on their feet. In the long run of course, such things take time. But more and more debt doesn´t work out in the long run, it´s just draging out the unavoidable. But thats just my opinion *shrug* the people who vote yes deserve whats coming for them.

[Zoraptor]

It's hardly surprising, they did exactly the same thing to Berlusconi; kicked him out of office then appointed their own technocrat. It was somewhat amusing to see that technocrat then try to run for election and get beaten by a (close to) literal clown, who got the highest vote share of anyone.

 

The EU is basically Emperor Palpatine, they 'love' democracy when it's a rubber stamp, not so much when it's something like a pesky referendum. They'll keep holding referenda until they get the 'right' result, they'll incorporate undemocratic institutions and they'll subvert elections. As the old joke goes, the EU would reject its own application for membership due to not being democratic enough.

 

Yes or no, do people realise Greece badly needs a new government prepared to rebuild the economy on solid fiscal principles?

 

Yeah, like the Tories have done in the UK. Economy still below 2008 levels, by a fair bit, GDP: debt ratio up to ~85% from 40% in 2009, despite all the rhetoric no actual surplus in sight. Iceland is doing better than that, despite their default.

 

What's needed is pragmatism, and not slavish adherence to some Eton knob end's entirely on paper in Excel economic model that bears as little resemblance to reality as an 18 year old liberal art student's who has just read Marx for the first time. To be fair it would have been far better for the UK if your government had followed our Labour's 2000 era example in its pragmatism (ie paying back debt and establishing a proper pension fund- at 17% returns p/a- while the going was good in the early 2000s; in contrast our Tories have more than doubled debt and never had a surplus, just like yours) but it's too late to go back in time and tell Gordon and Tony that maybe they should pay back some money in the good times and not allow banks to be morans.

[Ineth]

 

Good luck with that referendum.

[Monte Carlo]

Zoraptor, this really, really isn't about the UK. I'm sitting pretty, thanks, because we didn't join the Euro. In the context of the current situation, that's the most salient point.

 

The Blair / Brown axis was a disaster for my country, but compared to the Greek scenario they were demi-gods of fiscal probity.

 

That's what we're talking about. BTW, Iceland / UK comparisons? *really?* You can do better than that. Yeah, that Reykjavik world financial hub was a real issue during their default

 

Edit: And Janet Daley nails it...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11718083/Greece-referendum-syriza-tsipras-eurozone-crisis-euro.html

Edited July 4, 2015 by Monte Carlo

[BruceVC]

It's hardly surprising, they did exactly the same thing to Berlusconi; kicked him out of office then appointed their own technocrat. It was somewhat amusing to see that technocrat then try to run for election and get beaten by a (close to) literal clown, who got the highest vote share of anyone.

 

The EU is basically Emperor Palpatine, they 'love' democracy when it's a rubber stamp, not so much when it's something like a pesky referendum. They'll keep holding referenda until they get the 'right' result, they'll incorporate undemocratic institutions and they'll subvert elections. As the old joke goes, the EU would reject its own application for membership due to not being democratic enough.

 

Yes or no, do people realise Greece badly needs a new government prepared to rebuild the economy on solid fiscal principles?

 

Yeah, like the Tories have done in the UK. Economy still below 2008 levels, by a fair bit, GDP: debt ratio up to ~85% from 40% in 2009, despite all the rhetoric no actual surplus in sight. Iceland is doing better than that, despite their default.

 

What's needed is pragmatism, and not slavish adherence to some Eton knob end's entirely on paper in Excel economic model that bears as little resemblance to reality as an 18 year old liberal art student's who has just read Marx for the first time. To be fair it would have been far better for the UK if your government had followed our Labour's 2000 era example in its pragmatism (ie paying back debt and establishing a proper pension fund- at 17% returns p/a- while the going was good in the early 2000s; in contrast our Tories have more than doubled debt and never had a surplus, just like yours) but it's too late to go back in time and tell Gordon and Tony that maybe they should pay back some money in the good times and not allow banks to be morans.

 

 

Zoraptor, this really, really isn't about the UK. I'm sitting pretty, thanks, because we didn't join the Euro. In the context of the current situation, that's the most salient point.

 

The Blair / Brown axis was a disaster for my country, but compared to the Greek scenario they were demi-gods of fiscal probity.

 

That's what we're talking about. BTW, Iceland / UK comparisons? *really?* You can do better than that. Yeah, that Reykjavik world financial hub was a real issue during their default

 

Edit: And Janet Daley nails it...

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/11718083/Greece-referendum-syriza-tsipras-eurozone-crisis-euro.html

 

 

Yeah good points Monte, Zora you were doing so well with convincing people that you cared about the Greeks and there situation...I almost fell for it

 

But then the old " down with the West " sentiment comes through and we see the real invective and animosity that you feel that  motivates most of your views 

 

So now  the UK becomes a target of your criticism ....hey maybe we can blame the  USA for this? You never know, there will be some website that will blame the USA for the Greek crisis ...you just need to look hard enough ?

 

 

And lamenting the loss of Berlusconi ...wow....okay. He must be one of the most controversial and corrupt leaders Italy has seen post WW2 . You should see him getting replaced as  something positive 

[Zoraptor]

Why do you troll Bruce? Don't worry, rhetorical question. Pretty lulzy trying to say that I like Silvio, given my previously shown great love of billionaire media barons, but as always you try too much, with far too little wit and far too obviously. Study Bubbles, with time and a great deal of effort you might just scrape in at mediocrity, eventually. Until that time I'm back to little i ignoring you again.

 

Zoraptor, this really, really isn't about the UK. I'm sitting pretty, thanks, because we didn't join the Euro. In the context of the current situation, that's the most salient point.

 

That's what we're talking about. BTW, Iceland / UK comparisons? *really?* You can do better than that. Yeah, that Reykjavik world financial hub was a real issue during their default

 

Financial services were a greater proportion of Iceland's GDP than Britain's, and they would have had far more debt from their banks' failure if they'd taken it on. Though I do agree that they aren't comparable to Greece, but then nowhere is really.

 

In any case, the main point was of pragmatism, I'd be as dismissive if the course set was for collectivisation as for neoliberalism, but it is set for neoliberalism. Under the current circumstances there is no such thing as 'solid fiscal principles' because all that is left is voluntary debt reduction or bankruptcy, the Greeks cannot do any more until one or the other happens. The whole question is a bit naive, the other two options are Pasok and New Democracy who were in power in the early 2000s and responsible for the policies then. There's no saviours there.

[melkathi]

Very low participation today it seems.

[213374U]

Yes or no, do people realise Greece badly needs a new government prepared to rebuild the economy on solid fiscal principles?

 

Greece was doing great as far as fiscal consolidation goes according to OECD, by late 2013.

 

"There is no doubt about the efforts of the Greek authorities to reform the economy and balance the budget. Between 2010 and 2012, Greece reduced its budget deficit by nine percentage points of GDP, the largest ever adjustment by an OECD country and one which looks set to deliver a primary surplus this year. Over the same period, no OECD country has introduced more far-reaching reforms in health care, the labour market, the pension system and the banking sector, to name but a few."

 

 

That hasn't really worked as advertised, with debt-to-GDP ratio increasing all the way, and the country is now going down the toilet.

 

*shrug*

 

 

 

Very low participation today it seems.

 

Heh. With the heat wave going on, I'm guessing people will put off heading out to vote as much as possible.

[Monte Carlo]

Magic Eight ball says Martial Law by the end of the year. Greece becomes Venezuela-on-the-Med.

[HoonDing]

More like an annexation of FYROM.

[Sarex]

Magic Eight ball says Martial Law by the end of the year. Greece becomes Venezuela-on-the-Med.

 

Doubt it very much. I'm of the opinion that they will get help either from the Arabs or from Russia/China.

 

Edit: that is if they leave the euro and eu.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Sarex

[Monte Carlo]

Russia can't afford it. The Middle East has other, more pressing concerns.

 

Maybe China, but you seen what's coming down their economic track?

[melkathi]

Magic Eight ball says Martial Law by the end of the year. Greece becomes Venezuela-on-the-Med.

 

Just because our Minister of Defense announced the other day that the army stands ready to defend "us" from domestic enemies?

[Sarex]

Russia can't afford it. The Middle East has other, more pressing concerns.

 

Maybe China, but you seen what's coming down their economic track?

 

Russia's economy is on such a scale that I doubt it would hurt them that much financially to help them. They would get lots of things out of such a deal, first of them being an ally in Europe and second being a key country for the southern pipeline.

 

Arabs helped my country (Serbia) when we were on the edge, they loaned us 2 billion (with very low interest rate) most of which we used to pay off loans (with astronomical interests rates) that the previous government took out. Even now they are investing in various areas: Air Serbia, Agriculture(that the EU has been actively trying to destroy for the last 10 years), Belgrade on Water, etc.

 

As for China, I would be skeptical to say the least that they are going to burst any bubble, no matter how much the west pushes that story. Most likely that story is being forced to cause damage to or restrain the economy. China simply has too much going on to be able to fail that easily.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Sarex

[Monte Carlo]

Sorry Sarex, Russia is broke. Tspiras has already visited the Kremlin with the begging bowl and came back with very little. Sanctions are biting Putin's crew atm.

 

I know, being Serbian, you are likely to have a more positive view of Russia, but I don't see them stumping up the sort of cash Greece owes the IMF on any sort of terms.

[213374U]

Just because our Minister of Defense announced the other day that the army stands ready to defend "us" from domestic enemies?

 

Sounds bad. I wonder to what extent the current gov't has actual support from the armed forces. Have you heard anything about Academi (formerly Blackwater)?

 

http://beforeitsnews.com/global-unrest/2013/02/greece-blackwater-mercenaries-guarding-govt-and-overseeing-police-coup-feared-2453458.html

 

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=el&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsbomb.gr%2Fpolitikh%2Fnews%2Fstory%2F296524%2Fapantisi-dendia-sti-voyli-gia-tin-blackwater

 

I'm guessing the "domestic enemies" he was alluding to are supposed to be Golden Dawn fifth-columnists and such?

[BruceVC]

Sorry Sarex, Russia is broke. Tspiras has already visited the Kremlin with the begging bowl and came back with very little. Sanctions are biting Putin's crew atm.

 

I know, being Serbian, you are likely to have a more positive view of Russia, but I don't see them stumping up the sort of cash Greece owes the IMF on any sort of terms.

 

Yes the  view that Russia with all there economic woes  is going to bail-out the Greeks is ludicrous at best and pure never-never land logic at worst