Best Western Strategiests are non-educated posers.

[Luj1]

Brzezinsky uneducated?

[213374U]

By the way Spain is on the road to recovery so it can be done and its not unreasonable to expect them to reform

I usually don't bother replying to you because of your constant, unsubtle trolling. In this case I'm going to make an exception because I don't want anyone reading your lies and buying into the party line for an instant.

 

Yes, (some) macroeconomic figures say Spain has, in 2014, grown as much as Germany. Whoop-de-****ing-do. However, this "improvement" needs to be put in perspective:

 

• intensive use of labor means a decrease in productivity in an economy already notoriously unproductive (25% less than Germany's)
• "growth" in 2014 is actually only bouncing back from the contraction experienced these last few years — in the absolutely most optimistic predictions, it'll take until 2017 to get back to 2008 levels... other economists say we'll never get back to those levels
• "austerity" measures have accomplished only one thing, distributing wealth upwards. In 2014 the number of people worth more than €1M increased by 24%, with population in poverty increasing, something even the EC has chastised Spain for.
• after six years of "fiscal consolidation", we still have a deficit of about 6%, only better than Greece's; this is in spite of massive direct and indirect tax increases and an incresing public debt that is expected to surpass 100% in 2015
• the "jobs miracle" is, in true Spanish fashion, a cheap copy of the German model, with 13% of jobs created being for less than 10 hours/mo, and 39% being less than 30 hours/mo. This is in addition to ~40% of contracts being for 30 days or less and new jobs offering paycheck levels from 1995. Yes, 1995. The difference with the German model? The state doesn't make up for the difference between minimum wage and current job salaries. The result of all this? A net increase of less than 200k jobs compared to 2011 levels

 

I could go on, but that should be enough for anyone not otherwise informed to realize that you, quite simply, have no idea what you are talking about.

 

Good day.

Edited April 1, 2015 by 213374U

[BruceVC]

 

By the way Spain is on the road to recovery so it can be done and its not unreasonable to expect them to reform

I usually don't bother replying to you because of your constant, unsubtle trolling. In this case I'm going to make an exception because I don't want anyone reading your lies and buying into the party line for an instant.

 

Yes, (some) macroeconomic figures say Spain has, in 2014, grown as much as Germany. Whoop-de-****ing-do. However, this "improvement" needs to be put in perspective:

 

• intensive use of labor means a decrease in productivity in an economy already notoriously unproductive (25% less than Germany's)
• "growth" in 2014 is actually only bouncing back from the contraction experienced these last few years — for the absolutely most optimistic predictions, it'll take until 2017 to get back to 2008 levels... other economists say we'll never get back to those levels
• "austerity" measures have accomplished only one thing, distributing wealth upwards. In 2014 the number of people worth more than €1M increased by 24%, with population in poverty increasing, something even the EC has chastised Spain for.
• after six years of "fiscal consolidation", we still have a deficit of about 6%, only better than Greece's; this is in spite of massive direct and indirect taxes increases and an incresing public debt that is expected to surpass 100% in 2015
• the "jobs miracle" is, in true Spanish fashion, a cheap copy of the German model, with 13% of jobs created being for less than 10 hours/mo, and 39% being less than 30 hours/mo. This is in addition to ~40% of contracts being for 30 days or less and new jobs offering paycheck levels from 1995. Yes, 1995. The difference with the German model? The state doesn't make up for the difference between minimum wage and current job salaries. The result of all this? A net increase of less than 200k jobs compared to 2011 levels

 

I could go on, but that should be enough for anyone not otherwise informed to realize that you, quite simply, have no idea what you are talking about.

 

Good day.

 

Thanks for taking the time and  responding, I have found that interesting

[BruceVC]

 

 

Having other europeans countries fighting among themselves is always beneficial to Russia.

 

Exactly..and we don't want a weakened EU in the face of the  rise of Russian hegemony and military aggression 

 

 

We? Location:Johannesburg, South Africa

 

  you funny Oby 

 

Yes, despite what some people think in South Africa " we "are aligned to Western ideology 

 

So "we " refers to countries that follow Western culture 

[obyknven]

 

 

 

We? Location:Johannesburg, South Africa

 

  you funny Oby 

 

Yes, despite what some people think in South Africa " we "are aligned to Western ideology 

 

So "we " refers to countries that follow Western culture 

 

So "we " refers to white colonialists in South Africa.  Africa for Africans! Europeans - go home!

[HoonDing]

But you are Polish.

[obyknven]

But you are Polish.

 

True Poles like Soviets/Russians.

[Walsingham]

Having other europeans countries fighting among themselves is always beneficial to Russia.

 

Rain rain.

[Longknife]

 

[snip]

 

 

I didn't perceive you were yelling, that was in reply to you saying "We'll be over here not even noticing any problems and yelling at Greece to get off their asses", which I take exception to (Greece isn't a Reichskommissariat, bro), but above everything else, I find utterly pointless. Want them to "get off their asses"? Stop lending them money. The Google/Startpage remark was facetious as I already explained, made even more so by the fact that Startpage is Google for all intents and purposes (save privacy).

 

I do not doubt that the current climate in Germany is to blame the PIGS for all of Europe's woes. A not completely unfounded view, but skewed. The links I posted meant to illustrate that it's in fact France's, Europe's second largest economy, that is a much bigger cause for concern than the PIGS, a fact you glossed over as it doesn't fit very well with the mainstream discourse. The links dealing with the "German [mini]jobs miracle" thing and growing poverty and inequality illustrate how the great macroeconomic figures you wield to claim that Germany is an economic powerhouse (which it is) mean very little as far as actual people's living standards are concerned. The whole growth paradigm is hogwash, because economies growing by eleventy bajillions of make-believe money doesn't mean much if the majority's purchasing power is steadily decreasing. That's what the widening income gap means.

 

Your reply was in the context of who is being hurt the most by sanctions, which is a matter I ignored completely. Rather, I was replying to your half-truths and oversimplifications, and especially your own self-contradiction when you simultaneously assert that the dollar-to-Euro exchange is dependent on multiple factors and then launch into a diatribe against Greece. Don't take this as a criticism of Germany, a defense of Greece, or a rebuttal motivated by a hurt patriotic pride. The accepted narrative makes my skin crawl, is all.

 

 

 

Actually agree with a lot of the things you said. As stated, it's merely a matter of them feeling out of place within the context of Germany and Russia. I sat here basically with the expression of "really dude? Oby is talking out of his ass and you're going to nitpick the comparatively minor flaws of the German/EU economy?"   I merely posted "half truths" and "oversimplifications" because again in that context, they're simply not relevant. My take on the matter is you start with the biggest fallacies first, then move down. I didn't want to make a big long laundry list of "sure Germany could do better in A, B and C and the European Union as a collective has shown weakness in D" because I know how that ends: Oby would be clinging to it, refusing to move onto the topic of Russia's economy, instead wanting the convo to revolve around the EU/Germany's comparatively smaller issues. No, he's got the larger claim here, let's here his proof and his sources, THEN let's move on.

 

But yeah don't get me wrong, I agree that completely that the widening income gap is a huge cause for concern (especially given that at times Merkel voices stances on things that hit too close to home with the American way of doing things; she didn't get my vote ijs) and I do feel as though there's a degree of elitism within the EU where the bigger states do not get called out on their issues so much as the states who may have fudged the numbers to obtain EU membership. There is a degree of snobbiness within Germany that's hard to describe, I suppose what it is is that they believe their work ethic is better and superior (and admittedly it is quite good) so any work involving German efforts must be fantastic, and I would not be surprised if other bigger EU countries (France, UK, Austria; austria included cause I've been there and know first-hand they're similar) shared that attitude.  That's not to say complaints of Greece are unwarranted, merely that as I've heard for example, Greece also has complaints about Germany, which I'm sure hold merit as well. (sadly I don't have any contact to Greeks long-term so I couldn't tell you what those are)  It's merely a case of....quite frankly - and this probably isn't a surprise - but I find Oby to be quite delusional, and I do NOT think that what he needs now to realize this are examples where the German/EU economy is flawed, but rather examples of how his argument/the Russian economy is very flawed. People tend to cling onto the parts that reinforce their narrative.

 

 

Lastly and a bit tangently, quite frankly I'm not a big fan of discussions of the economy. In my experience it's has often devolved into students of macro and micro being at odds with one another, both accusing each other of being misinformed and uneducated, and I never know where to start when wtf no one can ever agree which info/source is correct and which is not. Only reason I even dare speak out now is because I cannot for the life of me name a single professor, teacher, or publication I know of that would agree with oby's stance on things.

Edited April 2, 2015 by Longknife

[213374U]

Actually agree with a lot of the things you said. As stated, it's merely a matter of them feeling out of place within the context of Germany and Russia. I sat here basically with the expression of "really dude? Oby is talking out of his ass and you're going to nitpick the comparatively minor flaws of the German/EU economy?"   I merely posted "half truths" and "oversimplifications" because again in that context, they're simply not relevant. My take on the matter is you start with the biggest fallacies first, then move down. I didn't want to make a big long laundry list of "sure Germany could do better in A, B and C and the European Union as a collective has shown weakness in D" because I know how that ends: Oby would be clinging to it, refusing to move onto the topic of Russia's economy, instead wanting the convo to revolve around the EU/Germany's comparatively smaller issues. No, he's got the larger claim here, let's here his proof and his sources, THEN let's move on.

To be honest, I don't really read oby's posts if they are longer than one sentence (and even then...). I tend to make out-of-context replies to people addressing his/her/their points, as a result. I'd apologize but that would probably be a fake apology, as I don't intend to start reading oby's posts in detail in the future...

 

re: debating the economy. Economics is commonly viewed as a social science, but the economy is a complex system. Economists aren't trained as physical scientists (no offense intended to economists), so there is an installed lack of rigour in economic debates, which is further compounded by ideologies and data manipulation to fit various agendas. Given the scale of the problems also, it is difficult to ascertain clearly the full effects of measures. In the end, what you have is a lot of people having a lot of opinions with little basis in fact. Under these circumstances it's difficult to have a productive discussion, and people will believe what they wish to believe.

Edited April 2, 2015 by 213374U

[Longknife]

 

Actually agree with a lot of the things you said. As stated, it's merely a matter of them feeling out of place within the context of Germany and Russia. I sat here basically with the expression of "really dude? Oby is talking out of his ass and you're going to nitpick the comparatively minor flaws of the German/EU economy?"   I merely posted "half truths" and "oversimplifications" because again in that context, they're simply not relevant. My take on the matter is you start with the biggest fallacies first, then move down. I didn't want to make a big long laundry list of "sure Germany could do better in A, B and C and the European Union as a collective has shown weakness in D" because I know how that ends: Oby would be clinging to it, refusing to move onto the topic of Russia's economy, instead wanting the convo to revolve around the EU/Germany's comparatively smaller issues. No, he's got the larger claim here, let's here his proof and his sources, THEN let's move on.

To be honest, I don't really read Oby's posts if they are longer than one sentence (and even then...). I tend to make out-of-context replies to people addressing his/her/its posts, as a result. I'd apologize but that would probably be a fake apology, as I don't really intend to start reading oby's posts in detail in the future...

 

re: debating the economy. Economics is commonly viewed as a social science, but the economy is a complex system. Economists aren't trained as physical scientists (no offense intended to economists), so there is an installed lack of rigour in economic debates, which is further compounded by ideologies and data manipulation to fit various agendas. Given the scale of the problems also, it is difficult to ascertain clearly the full effects of measures. In the end, what you have is a lot of people having a lot of opinions with little basis in fact. Under these circumstances it's difficult to have a productive discussion, and people will believe what they wish to believe.

 

 

 

Yep, don't have to tell me. Economics classes (albeit minor ones of course) get forced on you if you study law here. I'm mostly experienced with macro but also have some with micro.

 

Have you seen or done some of the calculations involving economics? Those are a nightmare too. String of variables in a giant equation to the point where you ask yourself where to begin. All studies at universities seem to begin with some snobby crap the professor spews to feed his ego about how great his subject matter is (the majority of professors have egos, according to a study I recall, and I doubt anyone would disagree with that sentiment), and I can't forget the macroeconomic accounting one began with both the professor and the books we were recommended saying Planck (Quantum physics) considered macroeconomic accounting to be too difficult, BOTH toned as if they served no purpose other than to stroke their own egos. Even the little ego stroking speech from my law professors had a hint of "don't feel bad or let it bruise your ego if you end up dropping out," this one sounded like blatant bragging. And it didn't really seem like a surprise at all given that the equations just feel so disorganized in the sense there's TOO many variables for one to feasibly move forward logically and with any sense of certainty. Price, demand, functions of the product, products that depend on/relate to/benefit from your product and their value, supply, etc etc etc. No surprise he'd prefer physics since Physics is at least consistent, logical and reliable, economic calculations are anything but that. Of course they try to apply systematic thought and logic to it, but there's only so much you can feasibly do. I hate it.

 

 

Sometimes to me it doesn't even feel like a situation of misinformation or bad methodology from economists who debate, but rather the focal points differ. For example I once saw a debate between a micro and macro (and this was something that popped into my head when you asked why funnel money to Greece) where the micro said the government should keep it's hands off and not provide any assistance when we had the recession, saying the economy would fix itself. Meanwhile the macro voiced concern saying the government does need to step in and provide support and assistance in order to ensure that the lower class doesn't suffer and that the economy stays healthy and things run smoothly. To me, BOTH were simultaneously correct, it's just the micro guy was merely focused on the universal truth that the economy is a cycle of ups and downs whereas the macro guy recognized it would be possible to diminish the scope and scale of the economic recession by funneling money to the right areas/people so that they could continue buying things, stimulating the economy and thus keeping it healthy so that the recovery process comes about quicker. The first was worried about the government's potential to screw it up, the latter was worried about those unfortunate few who would be hit VERY hard by the recession and our potential to handle the situation better than a hands-off approach. The two schools of thought merely have different focal points, with one wanting to learn to play the game and profit while the other merely wants to understand it and influence it; seemingly similar in theory, but also quite different.

Edited April 2, 2015 by Longknife

[RedCat]

While i appreciate the effort, i think the form in which obyknven tried to make his point could be improved.

 

Main problem with russian economy lies in its dependence on external investments. Central Bank policy dictates that the dollar should be the only source of investment. And while Central Bank  by law is independent of the government, it follows IMF directives by the book. At the same time dollar revenues from oil and gas trade go into stabilization fund instead of being used as investment source. That being said, economic grows started to decline in 2012.

Now, currency devaluation is not necessary a bad thing, it could be a very useful tool in boosting your industry against imported products, if it is used properly, and russian economy is very dependant on foreign import.  So instead, when ruble started to drop in fall 2014,  Central Bank raised credit rate up to 17% in december 2014. That resulted in mass speculation on currency market, and corporate credit debt increase as most companies has credits in dollars and profit in rubles. In march 16, 2015 Central Bank lowered credit rate to 14%.

Sanctions towards Russia actually is a double-edged sword. The more severe they are, the more they hurt both parties. For example companies like Hyundai not only suffer in sales decline but also they have to keep up with losses by keepeng their prices on the 2014 level or China will eat their market share.

 

The main goal of sanctions is to undermine Putin's political power, but there is a tricky part. In perfect scenario, sanctions should hurt russian elites and force them to remove Putin from power, instead we saw support rating of 86% as most russians see sanctions as attack on their sovereignity. Also i would say that due to difference in mentality and quality of life, compared to EU, russians can tolerate quite a bit of economic decline without Putin losing his support. That would probaly answer a question why most russians have quite optimistic outlook towards sanctions.

At this point we can also see a good progress being made in building Currency Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, which ultimately will gives us a necessary investment resource for import replacement.

 

p.s. I apologize for my english skills.

[Zoraptor]

but I find Oby to be quite delusional

Oby isn't delusional, he's just trollin'. But, the

 

comparatively minor flaws of the German/EU economy

 

 

are actually pretty significant, mostly because the eurozone as it stands is fundamentally broken and there is no political will to fix it properly, only enough to paper over the cracks; and all the debt restructuring etc being done is just kicking the can further down the road.

[Longknife]

While i appreciate the effort, i think the form in which obyknven tried to make his point could be improved.

 

Main problem with russian economy lies in its dependence on external investments. Central Bank policy dictates that the dollar should be the only source of investment. And while Central Bank  by law is independent of the government, it follows IMF directives by the book. At the same time dollar revenues from oil and gas trade go into stabilization fund instead of being used as investment source. That being said, economic grows started to decline in 2012.

Now, currency devaluation is not necessary a bad thing, it could be a very useful tool in boosting your industry against imported products, if it is used properly, and russian economy is very dependant on foreign import.  So instead, when ruble started to drop in fall 2014,  Central Bank raised credit rate up to 17% in december 2014. That resulted in mass speculation on currency market, and corporate credit debt increase as most companies has credits in dollars and profit in rubles. In march 16, 2015 Central Bank lowered credit rate to 14%.

Sanctions towards Russia actually is a double-edged sword. The more severe they are, the more they hurt both parties. For example companies like Hyundai not only suffer in sales decline but also they have to keep up with losses by keepeng their prices on the 2014 level or China will eat their market share.

 

The main goal of sanctions is to undermine Putin's political power, but there is a tricky part. In perfect scenario, sanctions should hurt russian elites and force them to remove Putin from power, instead we saw support rating of 86% as most russians see sanctions as attack on their sovereignity. Also i would say that due to difference in mentality and quality of life, compared to EU, russians can tolerate quite a bit of economic decline without Putin losing his support. That would probaly answer a question why most russians have quite optimistic outlook towards sanctions.

At this point we can also see a good progress being made in building Currency Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, which ultimately will gives us a necessary investment resource for import replacement.

 

p.s. I apologize for my english skills.

 

 

Your english skills are flawless dude.

 

And yeah again don't get me wrong and I should apologize, but I was focusing on things oby got wrong and focused on stomping those out. A sanction does indeed hurt both parties, I merely meant I would believe Germany to be the party that can better sustain such hits since it has the larger economy, the higher standards and more options in trade. Russia was comparatively hit with sanctions by quite a lot of people whereas Germany only cut ties with Russia specifically and only in very specific ways. Still, Russia does of course supply the EU area with a large amount of natural gas, so it's not as though Russian-EU relations are meaningless or negligible.

 

  As for Putin's approval ratings, personally I don't know what to say on that matter because on a personal level I have encountered Russians losing faith in Putin by a considerable margin, but I'm also not denying the numbers; his approval rating was always high. All I can say on that matter is that the Russians I know that live here in Germany all comment that the Russian media does not show them everything. Had a friend visit home during the Ukraine Crisis and she was saying it's kind of amazing the difference between what gets shown in the news there and what gets shown here. That's not to say "Russian media is corrupt and western media isn't!!" I'm cynical and I bet both are corrupt. If I'm to trust the judgement of any russian contacts I have here though, they all suggest that russian media only tends to show one side of the story or skip over some facts and details. Wish I could see what they saw, but sadly that's not the case. I also must say that Russian interest in politics in general seems very low, as I often struggle to find Russians with in-depth political opinions. The general thought always seems to be that the government corrupt, the elections are rigged and it doesn't matter whether they pay attention or not, so most don't. Despite this, they're all very fond of Putin for a various range of reasons, such as a belief he keeps the right groups in check, that he's a powerful leader who accomplishes a lot for Russia, or as stupid as finding him physically attractive.

 

 

 

@Zoraptor:

 

 

mostly because the eurozone as it stands is fundamentally broken

 

 

In what way? That seems like a very bold statement to make.

Edited April 2, 2015 by Longknife

[Luj1]

 

Having other europeans countries fighting among themselves is always beneficial to Russia.

 

Exactly..and we don't want a weakened EU in the face of the  rise of Russian hegemony and military aggression 

 

 

 

Sorry Bruce but that's nonsense. Seems you are heavily biased against Russia. Do you know what hegemony is ? It's cultural imperialism. Do you see Russian consumer products anywhere? Please, get real. We have had western hegemony for the last 200 years or so.

[Luj1]

 Russia is no threat to the world and isn't imperialistic. For the most part it stays in the tundra and minds its own business, unlike US/NATO who wants to dominate the world. It's the only country in the world to stand up to US, the global bully, and deserves my respect for that. I'm sorry guys but seems Russia is the good guy here actually.

[Longknife]

 Russia is no threat to the world and isn't imperialistic. For the most part it stays in the tundra and minds its own business, unlike US/NATO who wants to dominate the world. It's the only country in the world to stand up to US, the global bully, and deserves my respect for that. I'm sorry guys but seems Russia is the good guy here actually.

 

 

Tell that to Ukraine, Georgia, Estonia, and any country that has them as neighbors...

 

Granted, USA isn't exactly innocent either, but that's my point: the alleged guilt of one party =/= the innocence of the one opposed to them.

 

Besides, give them both credit, in a way. Sure we're tyrants but at least we're both smart enough to recognize there's limits and not blow the world up fighting each other. May not sound like much but who's to say that wouldn't be the outcome in other hands? At least we got the respect for one another right even if we do both have habits of picking on countries that are clearly outmatched.

[Meshugger]

 

Having other europeans countries fighting among themselves is always beneficial to Russia.

 

Rain rain.

 

 

Having other european countries fighting among themselves is never beneficial for Great Britain.

[Valsuelm]

 

but I find Oby to be quite delusional

Oby isn't delusional, he's just trollin'....

 

It's rare that a troll isn't delusional.

[BruceVC]

 

 

Having other europeans countries fighting among themselves is always beneficial to Russia.

 

Exactly..and we don't want a weakened EU in the face of the  rise of Russian hegemony and military aggression 

 

 

 

Sorry Bruce but that's nonsense. Seems you are heavily biased against Russia. Do you know what hegemony is ? It's cultural imperialism. Do you see Russian consumer products anywhere? Please, get real. We have had western hegemony for the last 200 years or so.

 

 

 

 Russia is no threat to the world and isn't imperialistic. For the most part it stays in the tundra and minds its own business, unlike US/NATO who wants to dominate the world. It's the only country in the world to stand up to US, the global bully, and deserves my respect for that. I'm sorry guys but seems Russia is the good guy here actually.

 

Wow Luj1, you say I am bias....did you read your last post...I would say you are also inclined to support a certain side in the tension between the West and Russia 

 

 

Its interesting you say Russia are the  good guys, I would love to have this debate with you. So lets start with " whats your definition of good guy " in this context?

[BruceVC]

While i appreciate the effort, i think the form in which obyknven tried to make his point could be improved.

 

Main problem with russian economy lies in its dependence on external investments. Central Bank policy dictates that the dollar should be the only source of investment. And while Central Bank  by law is independent of the government, it follows IMF directives by the book. At the same time dollar revenues from oil and gas trade go into stabilization fund instead of being used as investment source. That being said, economic grows started to decline in 2012.

Now, currency devaluation is not necessary a bad thing, it could be a very useful tool in boosting your industry against imported products, if it is used properly, and russian economy is very dependant on foreign import.  So instead, when ruble started to drop in fall 2014,  Central Bank raised credit rate up to 17% in december 2014. That resulted in mass speculation on currency market, and corporate credit debt increase as most companies has credits in dollars and profit in rubles. In march 16, 2015 Central Bank lowered credit rate to 14%.

Sanctions towards Russia actually is a double-edged sword. The more severe they are, the more they hurt both parties. For example companies like Hyundai not only suffer in sales decline but also they have to keep up with losses by keepeng their prices on the 2014 level or China will eat their market share.

 

The main goal of sanctions is to undermine Putin's political power, but there is a tricky part. In perfect scenario, sanctions should hurt russian elites and force them to remove Putin from power, instead we saw support rating of 86% as most russians see sanctions as attack on their sovereignity. Also i would say that due to difference in mentality and quality of life, compared to EU, russians can tolerate quite a bit of economic decline without Putin losing his support. That would probaly answer a question why most russians have quite optimistic outlook towards sanctions.

At this point we can also see a good progress being made in building Currency Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, which ultimately will gives us a necessary investment resource for import replacement.

 

p.s. I apologize for my english skills.

 

I understand that people have a certain view of Russia and its actions and anyone is perfectly entitled to believe what they want 

 

But other people will dispute this, like me

 

Firstly its not accurate to suggest that sanctions against any country have an  equally negative impact to both sides, thats just not true. Yes of course in the case of Russia as the sanctions increase you will see international companies pulling out of the Russian economy or being forced to and this will impact sales as Russia was a excellent market for certain industries. But there are always other markets and the reality is sanctions  make it very difficult for any country to operate in the global community so the worst hit people will be Russian businesses who need to operate in the international community 

 

As you mentioned Russia is primarily the architect of ifs own economic slowdown as it hasn't diversified its economy and relied on the  exports of natural  resources to sustain its economy so obviously the falling oil price has had a huge impact 

 

But lets not kid ourselves of course the Western sanctions have also had a detrimental effect to the Russian economy..its just silly to suggest anything different

 

 For example Russian bonds are now worth junk which makes borrowing more expensive and also certain international fund managers  have to pull out of investing in Russia. But the main issue is Russia is now considered a risky investment so you will see and  have seen the mass flow of foreign capital ..this is bad for any country

 

The end result of most  sanctions is not to undermine Putins power, we know he is very popular. The end result is to get the Russian economy to a point where its so bad it has to start making concessions...so in the interest of economic stability Putin will have to become more serious about a real agreement in Ukraine 

 

You may think  " what nonsense..sanctions don't work " but that would be a incorrect assumption. Sanctions work but they work slowly and insidiously..look at my own country South Africa and Iran? Sanctions forces both countries to want to negotiate and Russia will be no different  

[Malcador]

Oby isn't delusional, he's just trollin'....

Gets a pretty good return on it too. Don't think one need be delusional to just get people wound up online.

[Zoraptor]

In what way? That seems like a very bold statement to make.

It's a currency union without a fiscal union and the 'rules' for its entry and for entrants were and are routinely ignored by everyone (sole honourable exception to Luxembourg) and that has made it primarily responsible for the mess the PIIGSCetc have found themselves in.

 

They no longer have the tools available to manage their debts because their currency is run out of Frankfurt so devaluation and the like were out (well, until it suited Germany) as options. And because their currency value was tethered to the far stronger German* economy it was overvalued relative to their own economy and their exports were artificially uncompetitive; in contrast Germany's economy was tethered to their weaker ones so the Euro was artificially lower and they were more competitive internationally. Net effect was weaker economies getting weaker as their competitiveness decreased (through no direct fault of their own) while Germany's got stronger, this further exaggerated the difference between the value of the Euro and where a 'real, sovereign currency's value would be both ways, further strengthening Germany and weakening the others.

 

This was further exacerbated by Germany lending money to those weaker economies so they could continue to buy German products; and everyone ignoring the rules on fiscal responsibility. This meant that not only did weaker economies have overvalued currencies, they also had increasing debt burdens. Unsurprisingly, this was unsustainable  and the house of cards fell down, and is still in the process of doing so as austerity ratchets up the economic disparity even further, all in the name of paying back the German banks that loaned irresponsibly and with no responsibility being taken by the technocrats who made 'rules' then never enforced them. The PIIGSCetc will never repay their debts, the best that can be done is a structured default without using the actual words, but it ain't going to stop them blaming the victim and exacting their pound of flesh prior to that inevitability.

 

Fundamentally the eurozone is big B Broken. It's a mish mash compromise designed to appeal to politicians and Unionists, and offend as few people as possible; it is unbalanced, unfair and unworkable; a grotesque totem of pointless and ill thought out 'european integration' done solely for the sake/ appearance of said integration and either without any actual intention of being beneficial to all or being done with such horrendous incompetence that any good intentions were irrelevant. It's also close to completely unreformable. It has to be either a complete fiscal and economic union enforced with actual rules rather than follow them if you want, no worries if you don't- which won't happen; and even if it did would necessitate a sort of economic Marshall Plan that would be deeply unpopular in the wealthier states who completely lack the introspection to accept that they spent a decade sucking the lifeblood from the weaker economies with barely more morality than a crack dealer- or it has to go completely. There won't be a genuine recovery until either of those two things happen.

 

*Not just Germany, effectively any stronger than average economy got the benefit)

Edited April 2, 2015 by Zoraptor

[Longknife]

 

In what way? That seems like a very bold statement to make.

It's a currency union without a fiscal union and the 'rules' for its entry and for entrants were and are routinely ignored by everyone (sole honourable exception to Luxembourg) and that has made it primarily responsible for the mess the PIIGSCetc have found themselves in.

 

They no longer have the tools available to manage their debts because their currency is run out of Frankfurt so devaluation and the like were out (well, until it suited Germany) as options. And because their currency value was tethered to the far stronger German* economy it was overvalued relative to their own economy and their exports were artificially uncompetitive; in contrast Germany's economy was tethered to their weaker ones so the Euro was artificially lower and they were more competitive internationally. Net effect was weaker economies getting weaker as their competitiveness decreased (through no direct fault of their own) while Germany's got stronger, this further exaggerated the difference between the value of the Euro and where a 'real, sovereign currency's value would be both ways, further strengthening Germany and weakening the others.

 

This was further exacerbated by Germany lending money to those weaker economies so they could continue to buy German products; and everyone ignoring the rules on fiscal responsibility. This meant that not only did weaker economies have overvalued currencies, they also had increasing debt burdens. Unsurprisingly, this was unsustainable  and the house of cards fell down, and is still in the process of doing so as austerity ratchets up the economic disparity even further, all in the name of paying back the German banks that loaned irresponsibly and with no responsibility being taken by the technocrats who made 'rules' then never enforced them. The PIIGSCetc will never repay their debts, the best that can be done is a structured default without using the actual words, but it ain't going to stop them blaming the victim and exacting their pound of flesh prior to that inevitability.

 

Fundamentally the eurozone is big B Broken. It's a mish mash compromise designed to appeal to politicians and Unionists, and offend as few people as possible; it is unbalanced, unfair and unworkable; a grotesque totem of pointless and ill thought out 'european integration' done solely for the sake/ appearance of said integration and either without any actual intention of being beneficial to all or being done with such horrendous incompetence that any good intentions were irrelevant. It's also close to completely unreformable. It has to be either a complete fiscal and economic union enforced with actual rules rather than follow them if you want, no worries if you don't- which won't happen; and even if it did would necessitate a sort of economic Marshall Plan that would be deeply unpopular in the wealthier states who completely lack the introspection to accept that they spent a decade sucking the lifeblood from the weaker economies with barely more morality than a crack dealer- or it has to go completely. There won't be a genuine recovery until either of those two things happen.

 

*Not just Germany, effectively any stronger than average economy got the benefit)

 

 

 

There's a truth to this, I'm just typically not as pessimistic on the outlook because in my experience....mind if you ask where you're from? I ask because in my experience, people are very quick to point out the failures of other countries and claim things will only get worse. My first economics teacher was very fond of critizing the economic practices of other countries and firmly believed the USA would be hit harder by the recession and wouldn't make a smooth recovery. I was of the opinion she was drastically underestimating how much Americans love money; Germany may have solid export and GDP growth numbers, but USA is cunning as all hell.. Make no mistake for example, although I criticize Russia's economy, I wouldn't exactly call them doomed on that front because any half-decent mind can make efforts to provide relief and diminish problems, that goes for any country. Same kinda applies here: this is not something that would implode on itself overnight and if a desire to fix it exists, then it shall happen. Basic faith in human tenacity and brain power dictates so. However, it should be noted that there is a stance within Germany (although a minority opinion by far) that we should simply remove ourselves from the EU. It's nothing I'd take seriously now, but from a cultural perspective, as said there is a level of snobbiness in German culture where they believe they do the job better, and if **** hit the fan I can totally see Germany wishing to blame all other parties for slacking off or not doing things right before bowing out.

 

  A sad truth is that the European Union started out with the "elite" states and quickly became something everyone wanted to be a part of. The result? A lot of people fudged the numbers. The concrete economic requirements to join the EU are actually quite strict, as I recall. The problem is they're unreasonably strict to the point that many countries would not feasibly be able to join, so fudging numbers and leniency became a thing.  Another "make no mistake" comment, by no means did I mean to support the idea that PIGS is responsible for all problems. I merely named them (specifically Greece moreso) because it's undeniable that these do drag the Euro value down, both because problems do exist there (the statement problems exist within Greece is correct, it's just some would rightfully point out this is not unique to Greece) and because this is the narrative that's popular is that they are to blame, which does have an effect on investor outlooks because of course this means Greece is watched with a more scrutinized eye.

 

Still as I stated, I'm far less pessimistic of the matter.

[Zoraptor]

From New Zealand, also British citizen- and I can/ do/ (have) write equally as baldly about the economic stupidity here; hooray for economic growth based on property speculation and overleveraged personal debt plus cow juice, What Can Possibly Go Wrong? Plus most of out supposed growth is based on rebuilding a city largely flattened by an earthquake, a rather unusual event not linked at all to the competency of those running our economy... but I doubt most people would find that interesting or relevant most of the time, despite it being most relevant for me.

 

so fudging numbers and leniency became a thing

 

 

As I said though, everybody fudged them, not just Greece or Spain or whoever. France, Germany, Netherlands, Austria, everyone including the supposedly stronger and more responsible ones. Except Luxembourg, and fair due to them on that count but they aren't exactly the largest economy in Europe.

 

I merely named them (specifically Greece moreso) because it's undeniable that these do drag the Euro value down

 

 

Critically though, far from the Euro being dragged down by Greece or whoever being a disadvantage for Germany it has historically been an advantage, as it improves international competitiveness above what the old DMark would be at and Greeks etc didn't have German imports increasing in cost since they use the euro instead of a floating drachma; that is near pure advantage for Germany, at least up to the point where is becomes clear that the problems with the euro are fundamental ones and money lent is unlikely to be paid back. We're at that point now, and I don't see any way they'll genuinely recover without massive reforms which one way or the other will be unpopular and disruptive, because fundamentally, those weaker economies can never deal with their debt as the euro is structured. The idea of dealing with the crisis genuinely collectively is deeply unpopular in the stronger economies ('rewarding profligacy' etc) but the only real options are either that with proper enforceable fair rules for all to follow, or letting the weaker economies plain drop out. A barely tweaked status quo will not work.

 

but USA is cunning as all hell.

 

 

They're a special case, since they have the world's reserve currency. Anyone in their situation would leverage that advantage, and it's why they defend their status as such so vociferously.