Ukraine Discussion

[Gorgon]

More or less verbatim from a danish editorial  : If Putin isn't going to crack under sanctions and a new guy isn't going to overthrow him then the sanctions will have been worse than a waste of time. 

 

 

Putin is not scared of sanctions, protecting Russia's interests, which is how he views Ukraine, is a higher calling.  

[Gromnir]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/russia-manufacturing-slumps-to-weakest-since-2009-as-ruble-sinks

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-22/ruble-colluding-with-oil-brews-toxic-loan-morass-russia-credit

 

since zor seems to like bloomberg.

 

oh well.  is a russian collapse gonna happen in six months or less? unlikely-- 6 months is a worst case scenario even from those horrible uniformed folks at the imf.  somewhere between 6 and 18 months seems likely.  new western sanctions would speed up the fail.  oil inexplicably starts selling for +$80 per barrel and some o' the default scenarios will be delayed.  'course, as noted earlier in our linked sources, practical reserves o' russia is closer to $200 billion and it took russia less than 5 months to burn through that amount in 2008/2009.  situation is worse today than in 2008.

 

western sanctions is hurting russia.  russian food sanctions is hurting russia.  the drop in oil, which russian stoopidity has made russia particular vulnerable to, has hurt russia.  and on top o' everything, western sanctions is making it particular difficult for russia to mitigate the damage from heir current crisis as western aid and loans is not available and there is increasingly less possibility o' paying off western debt.  

 

the ostrich routine from zor were laughable in june o' 2014, but now it is absolute insane.

 

"Putin is not scared of sanctions, protecting Russia's interests, which is how he views Ukraine, is a higher calling. "

 

and that is why Alexei Kudrin is no longer the minister o' finance in russia. 

 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/kudrin-predicts-100-billion-capital-flight-from-russia-this-year/514821.html

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 14, 2015 by Gromnir

[BruceVC]

More or less verbatim from a danish editorial  : If Putin isn't going to crack under sanctions and a new guy isn't going to overthrow him then the sanctions will have been worse than a waste of time. 

 

 

Putin is not scared of sanctions, protecting Russia's interests, which is how he views Ukraine, is a higher calling.  

 

Everyone says that about sanctions in the beginning and I'm not surprised this is Putins stance. He is still very popular and feels somehow it his duty to the homeland. Also the level of sanctions are relatively minor 

 

 But as time goes on and things become harder he will change...they all change. The days of countries like Russia fighting interminable wars where you not suppose to be involved are basically over. The situation in eastern Ukraine for Russia can  never be won militarily, he would have to invade western Ukraine to ensure capitulation and that would mean Russia involvement would be obvious. If he doesn't defeat the Ukrainian government militarily they will constantly be involved in fighting the separatists which means constant involvement by Russia. Putin was probably told this would be same as Georgia, over in a few months but Ukraine is different. The West is firmly behind Ukraine in this case and will provide aid so that the Ukrainian government can continue to confront the separatists  

 

I feel the only viable solution to end the conflict  for both sides  is a diplomatic one 

[pmp10]

The situation in eastern Ukraine for Russia can  never be won militarily, he would have to invade western Ukraine to ensure capitulation and that would mean Russia involvement would be obvious. If he doesn't defeat the Ukrainian government militarily they will constantly be involved in fighting the separatists which means constant involvement by Russia.

You do realize that ceasefire was made only now so to save Ukrainian army from a major encirclement?

If there is anyone who can't win militarily it's Ukraine.

[Rostere]

More or less verbatim from a danish editorial  : If Putin isn't going to crack under sanctions and a new guy isn't going to overthrow him then the sanctions will have been worse than a waste of time. 

 

 

Putin is not scared of sanctions, protecting Russia's interests, which is how he views Ukraine, is a higher calling.  

 

I think this is missing the point. Sanctions (where the banking sanction are pretty much the only interesting ones) is a security mechanism. Some might think of it (including the people behind the sanctions...) as an attempt at regime change, but that is pretty moronic. It was never going to work. Less money in the Russian budget means less money to be spent on weapons, though. The recent high in oil prices has led to hubris in the Russian leadership.

 

We have seen how military brinksmanship can escalate before in Europe, and this is an attempt to de-escalate things with economic measures before things get out of hand. This is just a way for the US/EU to say "look, we disagree with this, and we're actually willing to sacrifice trade to prove it". It's easy to huff and puff and state your disagreement but unless you actually do something which in part hurts yourself, nobody is going to believe you. Compare with Hitler's invasion of Poland - he was actually surprised when the UK declared war on him! Same when the US entered the war in Europe.

[obyknven]

Freedom of speech in democratic Ukraine.

http://youtu.be/oi19yfgBN0w

[Zoraptor]

am looking at your graph. not as bad as russia. why?

 

le sigh.

 

They have a near trillion dollar sovereign wealth fund- I did kind of mention it. With a population of, what, 5 (?) million that gives the best part of 200,000 USD per capita in reserves. And really, it's your example, you should at least have some basic knowledge if you're going to try and prove a point with it instead of relying on me all the time.

 

As for other countries that depend on oil they either have major other historic problems and currencies that were already severely depressed/ controlled (Venezuela, Nigeria; which has dropped by roughly a third from their already low level anyway) or they're gulf (or equivalent like Brunei) states that have massive cash reserves (both absolute and p/capita) and, most importantly, very cheap production costs that mean they make money even at $50 a barrel.

 

And still no links to me saying what you claim. Well, if you can't win an argument any other way making up stuff you wished the other guy said is one way... well no, it really isn't. Post Proof or Retract, Put Up Or Shut Up etc etc. Until you do, it's classic strawman. If you do actually bother to look- and I suspect you have and just plain didn't find what you wanted- you'd probably find something along the lines of what Gorgon posted  a few posts above: the sanctions won't do anything to stop Putin because he sees Ukraine as being existential to Russia. It would explain things if you simply stopped reading at 'anything' and then built your entire premise on that, though.

[Gromnir]

every time we offer proofs, you do ostrich routine.

 

yellow journalism

 

conspiracy

 

flat-out refusal to respond.

 

Alexei Kudrin?

 

*shrug*

 

this has gone beyond ridiculous.  the only folks who could possibly find merit in your non-response is fellow conspiracy nutters and russians who need to believe the pap they is being force-fed daily.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[obyknven]

 

More or less verbatim from a danish editorial  : If Putin isn't going to crack under sanctions and a new guy isn't going to overthrow him then the sanctions will have been worse than a waste of time. 

 

 

Putin is not scared of sanctions, protecting Russia's interests, which is how he views Ukraine, is a higher calling.  

 

I think this is missing the point. Sanctions (where the banking sanction are pretty much the only interesting ones) is a security mechanism. Some might think of it (including the people behind the sanctions...) as an attempt at regime change, but that is pretty moronic. It was never going to work. Less money in the Russian budget means less money to be spent on weapons, though. The recent high in oil prices has led to hubris in the Russian leadership.

 

We have seen how military brinksmanship can escalate before in Europe, and this is an attempt to de-escalate things with economic measures before things get out of hand. This is just a way for the US/EU to say "look, we disagree with this, and we're actually willing to sacrifice trade to prove it". It's easy to huff and puff and state your disagreement but unless you actually do something which in part hurts yourself, nobody is going to believe you. Compare with Hitler's invasion of Poland - he was actually surprised when the UK declared war on him! Same when the US entered the war in Europe.

 

Lol. How sanctions prevent III Reich and Japan from beginning of WW2? Oh, wait, these countries begin world war because of sanctions against them! Same story with Russia now.

 Yep, sanctions hurt Russian economics, and force Russians to migrate in better places, in Europe for example. Poor Europ, it's looks like Europeans do want make suicide by Russian hands.

 

http://youtu.be/s_-6e6RQ0Bg

[Zoraptor]

every time we offer proofs, you do ostrich routine.

 

 

Nope. You've asserted what my opinion is without evidence and are busy 'refuting' that with your 'proofs'.

 

Here's how it works, you find posts that illustrate what my view is, and quote them. Until and unless you do that you're just arguing with your own imagination. For example, these are your assertions from the last two pages:

 

last summer you got Gromnir and others saying that western sanctions imposed on russia for perceived predation in the ukraine would hurt [..]

 

bester, zor, drowsy and others respond: nope

 

Where?*

 

last year Gromnir and others pointed out that what is currently happening to the russian economy, which is pretty dire according to pretty much any economist outside o' russia, and even a few in russia, could happen.  you chose to delude self then.

 

Where?*

 

the ostrich routine from zor were laughable in june o' 2014, but now it is absolute insane.

 

 

Which ostrich routine, where**? Hmm, maybe ostrich means I actually didn't actually reply at all...

 

Which would mean you really are arguing with your imagination.

 

go back and look at thread and your most amusing responses.

 

http://forums.obsidi...aine/?p=1476761

 

 

Ah, proof, at last! Except... it's a link to one of your own posts and there ain't a relevant post of mine within pages. Well, except the one I've already proved I'm right about.

 

Actually respond with some proof, links, evidence or whatever that I've said what you claim and what (you think) my views are. Until you do that you've been Weaseling and/ or Strawmanning; repeatedly 'refuting' something I've apparently only said in your own mind. Sheesh, I'm not even clear on what you think I've said due to your lack of actual quotes so even if I wanted to 'refute' your imagination there is, literally, no way to do so. So no, I'm not going to respond to you refuting an imaginary me, it's both pointless and enabling. Come back with the quotes from me and I'll clarify or defend them, I may even admit that I was wrong as that has been known to happen. Without those quotes though... well, no point.

 

*Dates here are significant, too, as:

**Oh, June 2014, before the main bank of sanctions in August and before the Russian counter sanctions you were insisting have raised prices independent of the exchange rate. Even if you could provide cites you'd be assuming I'm prescient about those future sanctions.

[Junai]

"Poor Europ, it's looks like Europeans do want make suicide by Russian hands."

 

No, that's what we're trying to prevent. Merkel and Hollande ignores rebukes from cowboys like McCain, non-entities like Lindsey Graham etc., and desperately tries to prevent the US from starting a war with Russia on European soil. At the same time, black op orgs. and NGOs are allowed to operate out of the US embassy in Ukraine, where they teach Ukrainian ignorants information warfare and how to destabilize their own country. Agitators like Victoria Nuland strole around Kiev, handing out bread to anti-gov protesters, trying to appear as an appeaser, ignorant of the fact that every person with internet access has heard her fsck-the-EU comments, and is perfectly aware of the US' shameless involvement and meddling in Ukraine. A few grannies even flip her the bird as she walks around there, with her silly grin and bag of bread.

 

And no, Russians won't starve. Norwegian salmon for instance, finds its way into Russia through Belarus.

 

J.

[Gromnir]

most is nonsense as you is simple fibbing to yourself or all here. hell, you ignore your own posts and Gromnir posts from this page.  Alexei Kudrin?  but the next bit...

 

"*Dates here are significant, too, as:

**Oh, June 2014, before the main bank of sanctions in August and before the Russian counter sanctions you were insisting have raised prices independent of the exchange rate. Even if you could provide cites you'd be assuming I'm prescient about those future sanctions.""

 

soooo missing the point.  what were predictable to Gromnir and others on this board, as well as to numerous experts that you dismiss as yellow journalists and/or suggest is part o' some terrible western conspiracy, given just how fragile and oil dependent the russian economy were insofar as oil is concerned... happened.  what were predicted to happen by many, and ignored and denied by you, actually came to pass.  yes. we were all prescient... or not.  perhaps what you continue to deny is that the current situation were predictable.  not need prescience to guess that putin intransigence would lead to greater sanctions.  not need to be prescient to worry that an economy near complete dependent on oil exports would suffer from sanctions and ANY fluctuation in oil. sure, the degree were exacerbated by the severity o' the oil drop, but an oil drop were a predictable problem, which is why we posted all those wonderful links to russian oil dependence.

 

12 months from now, when russian financial crisis is significant worse (and it is already freaking bad... although you deny,) will you complain that the reason you did ostrich today is 'cause you couldn't predict increased sanctions following a failed ukraine cease-fire, or that you couldn't predict that russian programs to halt fall o' the ruble would be more expensive than expected, or that oil would indeed stay below $80 a barrel?

 

ostrich... and a loon. am doubting they can crossbreed, but some kinda ostrich/loon.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Zoraptor]

Grom, your entire premise rests on you proving I said that Russia's economy would be fine, and providing the context. Post Proof Or Retract, Put Up Or Shut Up.

 

No quotes -> Weasel and you arguing with your own imagination. Which logically means the ostrich/ loon hybrid is... you; I guess sub conscious self awareness is better than no self awareness.

 

And yes, timing and quotes/ cites do matter as it provides crucial context and prevents selective. To illustrate: I could dig up posts from people saying that the 'ATO' would be over in August last year with Ukrainian victory. Well, clearly all those people must be ostriches, as it ain't over and Ukraine has lost lots of territory since then. Nope. Anyone who said something like "this will be over in weeks unless Russia intervenes" was correct, broadly speaking and certainly in the consensus of opinion; that is why context and quoting is crucial- and why I suspect you're so frightened of providing actual quotes, you're just regurgitating the first part with no qualifier. If I claimed Joe Bloggs said "this will be over in weeks" and he actually said "this will be over in weeks unless Russia intervenes" I'd be the Weasel because I'm saying he said what I would like him to have said, not what he actually said. But it isn't me doing that.

 

Anyway, since you're clearly not going to provide actual quotes discussion should probably go back to what is happening in Ukraine, where the ceasefire seems to be holding. Or about as well as the last one did, only with Debaltsevo instead of Donetsk Airport (which the UA should have withdrawn from under the first ceasefire conditions but didn't)

[Gromnir]

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1455485

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1457847

 

that were a great ostrich moment that kgambit exposed, but you plowed right through.  

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1476496

 

and the hijinks ensue.

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1476654

 

further down the line, kgambit tries to help you once again, and your best response is

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/67588-ukraine-discussion/?p=1518297

 

*shrug*

 

we can go further back or go further forward to find more zor delusional postings regarding sanctions.  hell, it were only a few pages ago in this thread when you were telling us that the Russian financial crisis were some kinda invention o’ western journalists, or some such nonsense. 

 

“Yes, I hear that Russia is down to their last 376 billion!

 

“Always a good laugh, seeing US press (and especially Uncle Rupes' Yellow Journalists) talking their enemies down, you'd think dealing with the 18 trillion dollar (and currently increasing at more than Russia's entire external debt annually) log in their own eye would garner rather more attention.”

 

you are… laughable, but consistent. delusional, conspiracy theories, yellow journalism and willful avoidance o’ that which clear refutes your nonsense theories.

 

speaking of put up or shut up, Alexei Kudrin? still no response to his observations regarding how much western sanctions have hurt and will continue to hurt even if oil prices rise.  

 

funny and sad.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 15, 2015 by Gromnir

[Zoraptor]

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1455485

Utterly irrelevant. And also from June 2014, before second major sanctions.

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1457847

 

Nope. Again, from June 2014 and again it's irrelevant to the subject at hand. Arguably a good further example of Yellow Journalism though, since the problem kg had was relying on analysis from 'experts'  who didn't explain why pipeline costs should be levied against the Chinese deal but any Euro ones should assume the infrastructure was created by pipeline fairies for free. Which is rather like relying on 'experts' who insist that a 30% rise in food costs could be solved by imports when a halving of exchange rate means import prices would have gone up 100%...

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1476496

 

Another link to one of your posts, not mine. Oddly enough Bester disputes your point but I don't, except in the context of Russian counter sanctions. FTR: I don't have any sockpuppets, let alone one as low quality as Bester.

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1476654

 

Yep, proves I was talking about agricultural sanctions, per above. You know, the ones that have had no effect on prices as prices have risen less than the exchange rate would mandate if imported.

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/67588-ukraine-discussion/?p=1518297

 

Links to something Wals said, but since I'm charitable I scrolled down. Wow, a semantic dispute about what constitutes a 'current project'. Credit where it's due, that is actually about sanctions and is from later than August last year which is a massive improvement on the others but it does not change the fundamentals- indeed, what both kgambit and I said were compatible as we both agreed there would be no new projects. And I was correcting well known pro US, anti Russia shill oby initially there.

 

Give kg his credit though, he's far, far better at this than you are- and far more honest about it to boot.

 

“Yes, I hear that Russia is down to their last 376 billion!

 

“Always a good laugh, seeing US press (and especially Uncle Rupes' Yellow Journalists) talking their enemies down, you'd think dealing with the 18 trillion dollar (and currently increasing at more than Russia's entire external debt annually) log in their own eye would garner rather more attention.”

 

 

Hooray for context stripping. To remind people, you were saying that Russia would be out of reserves in "six months to a year at current rate of spending". I handily refuted the "current rate of spending" pages back, now there's nothing else to do but set the alarm clock for early August- Feb 2015/6 and see whose experts were right, mine saying 18 months to two years or yours saying max a year. Whoever is wrong can feel free to admit they were an ostrich.

 

speaking of put up or shut up, Alexei Kudrin? still no response to his observations regarding how much western sanctions have hurt and will continue to hurt even if oil prices rise.  

 

You still haven't shown where I said that sanctions wouldn't hurt, only that the counter sanctions wouldn't hurt significantly. Until you do this is irrelevant and is rebuttal of your own imagination, not me.

[Gromnir]

*chuckle*

 

in this post 

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/page-23?do=findComment&comment=1476654

 

you reference more than just the impotence o' counter-sanctions, but we need not go through every one o' your delusional posts... again.  am not thinking that your attempt to limit tio counter-sanctions helps you much either, but you wanna ignore all the imf, central bank and harvard experts as the result o' yellow journalism and conspiracy.

 

heck, in recent posts you has told us that sanctions didn't even hurt that much and that it were simple drop in oil that were causing the non-crisis in russia.

 

is tough to keep up with your spinning

 

Alexei Kudrin?

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps we really only scanned your last post 'cause this has gone beyond ridiculous. Alexei Kudrin? 40%? etc?

Edited February 16, 2015 by Gromnir

[Zoraptor]

*chuckle*

 

in this post 

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/page-23?do=findComment&comment=1476654

 

you reference more than just the impotence o' counter-sanctions,

 

heh. I'll reproduce, emphasis added:

 

I find the talk of Russia shooting itself in the foot over sanctions rather amusing, frankly. As someone from a country that has been continually shafted by EU and US agricultural subsidies artificially lowering prices I find it highly amusing to see people who have benefited from the CAP and ag subsidies- 40+% of the total EU budget in 2010- alternatively wailing at the unfairness and shouting that Russia will never be able to replace those imports. Europe doesn't even have a real world agricultural surplus, it's entirely artificial and based on German and French farmers', Spanish and Portugese fishermen etc etc predilection for parking their slow moving vehicles in annoying places every time significant reform is mooted. On this I am 100% with Victoria Nuland- EU? Asterisk the EU. That they were dumb enough and had enough hubris to think there wouldn't be blowback is just the hilarity cherry on the top of the amusement cake. Now, ban airlines from Russian airspace and watch the hohoho meter rise further.

 

It's not like Russia doesn't have alternatives anyway. They didn't sanction us (just to add to the hilarity our PM says we cannot sanction them even if we wanted to without the UN, er, sanctioning it; which is of course rubbish but it's one time I do support his economic pragmatism wholeheartedly) nor any other countries except NATO/ EU and our trans tasman cousins in the 51st state. Plus Japan probably, but I can't even be bothered checking that since they don't have any sort of agricultural surplus even a constructed one, besides whale meat. They'll buy dairy and beef from here, fruit and beef from South America, fish from various places and everything will continue more or less as normal. Won't cost the US much either as they'll just maintain the deals which are profitable to them as they always do, so Boeing will keep supplying civilian aircraft even if Airbus stops. Overall, nice work , EU, now aim the shotgun at the other foot, I hear Putin is hiding behind that one now.

Obviously about the counter sanctions since everything said is about agriculture (with one exception)- which are the Russian counter sanctions on the west, not western sanctions on Russia.

 

The only other reference is to Boeing supplying aircraft and that not being subject to sanctions- which is completely accurate, Boeing is not covered by US sanctions. You could, possibly claim that I implied Airbus were covered, except for the if.

 

So, about a dozen references to agriculture, and one to a specific part of the general sanctions where I was perfectly accurate about what was not being sanctioned.

[Gromnir]

*sigh*

 

so you admit the silly claim that russian self-imposed sanctions were only west shooting self,  and the context o' the following...

 

"Yes, I hear that Russia is down to their last 376 billion!

 

"Always a good laugh, seeing US press (and especially Uncle Rupes' Yellow Journalists) talking their enemies down, you'd think dealing with the 18 trillion dollar (and currently increasing at more than Russia's entire external debt annually) log in their own eye would garner rather more attention."

 

were nothing more than these 2 posts... which were little more than Gromnir links,

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/69691-ukraine-discussion/?p=1569008

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/69691-ukraine-discussion/?p=1569041

 

our mention of six months, To A Year, came AFTER your ostrich routine without your imagined context.

 

so, what exact is your complaint?

 

*snort*

 

so, given that we is all on same page with you trying to imagine away the russian financial crisis, please explain away Alexei Kudrin? his comments about 40% o' the devaluation o' the ruble being due to western sanctions is imagined by yellow journalists we 'spose, or is the result o' a conspiracy? you got a Men in Black explanation we s'pose?  mr. Kurdin, the former minister o' finance, also were critical o' russian military spending AND observed the pain the russians were feeling from self-imposed sanctions. etc?

 

don't blame Gromnir for your foolishness. you stuck your neck out on your own.  so many folks even in this thread saw what were coming. you did ostrich bit with complaints o' yellow journalism and conspiracy theory.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Gromnir]

aside:

 

we do sympathize with zor's plight... or we pretend to sympathize.  which makes zor look more foolish:

 

1) arguing in june/july o' 2014 that sanctions would not hurt russia,

 

or

 

2) arguing in february 2015 that western sanctions hadn't actual been a severe blow to the russian economy?

 

well, clear #2 is delusional and having a greater tendency to illustrate those unfortunate characteristics we claimed zor is showing.  so we get why zor don't wanna discuss #2. perhaps he thinks Gromnir tricked him into making the #2 claim?  doubt it, but regardless,  the proverbial cat is outta the bag.  zor made a complete obtuse and delusional claim.  is no amount o' conspiracy nonsense or yellow journalism hokum that can erase the ridiculous assertions zor made in the last few pages, though am guessing he would wish everybody to forget.  

 

*shrug*

 

and you kinda already admitted to #1 anyway:

 

Gromnir: the current scenario, albeit less bleak, is exactly what Gromnir and others predicted LAST year when we were all posting those lovely export/economy graphics that showed just how dependent Russia is on oil. it is an extreme fragile economy. you didn't pay attention then, and now you act as if the oil situation were unpredictable. 

 

zor: Nope, I said that economic sanctions would not severely impact Russia. The oil price is independent of the sanctions and unrelated to them, it's Saudi taking a dump on frackers.

 

we didn't make you admit that you had said that, "economic sanctions would not severely impact russia."  that were all on you.

 

more important and relevant and... fun, please explain away Alexei Kudrin? his comments about 40% o' the devaluation o' the ruble being due to western sanctions is imagined by yellow journalists we 'spose, or is the result o' a conspiracy? you got a Men in Black explanation we s'pose?  mr. Kurdin, the former minister o' finance, also were critical o' russian military spending AND observed the pain the russians were feeling from self-imposed sanctions. maybe you prefer Anders Åslund?  we got more juicy quotes from him regarding the impact o' western sanctions and russian stupidity on the general state o' the russian economy.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 16, 2015 by Gromnir

[Hassat Hunter]

Violence has picked up, funny how ceasefires always do that. But here's hoping it will last, next step is the West arming random people to fight and that's worked out quite well in recent years, heh.

You mean to say ISIS is not a great victory for our people?

And also so funny that Russia is not allowed to support Ukraine Protestors, while we're all arming the rebels in Syria, and that arsenal is used to make up ISIS.

I guess it's 1-0 for Russia, not having generated an enemy that has to be bombed to smitereens.

 

And yes, I know all about MH17, considering most of the people who died there came from my country.

 

Also, is it peace yet?

[Rostere]

Lol. How sanctions prevent III Reich and Japan from beginning of WW2? Oh, wait, these countries begin world war because of sanctions against them! Same story with Russia now.

 

 Yep, sanctions hurt Russian economics, and force Russians to migrate in better places, in Europe for example. Poor Europ, it's looks like Europeans do want make suicide by Russian hands.

 

A few corrections:

1. No sanctions were imposed upon Germany. Actually the Soviet Union suggested this, but no other country was interested.
2. Japan did declare war after sanctions, but there is a discussion to be had about cause, effect and intent here. The Americans sanctioned Japan because they thought Japan's actions in Asia were unacceptable. Japan's imperial ventures were very reliant on the trade in steel from the US however, so since the Japanese refused to change their course, war with the US became the only other option. This is a war the Japanese were doomed to lose from the very start. Of course the US knew both that Japan would either cease their expansion in Asia or declare war, and that the Japanese would lose if they chose war. So if Japan's current behavior was unacceptable, sanctions would at least give Japan an excuse to retreat before a war, which would be inevitable if the US did not choose sanctions. The only other US option would be to attack Japan first, which they probably could not do because of US public opinion.

 

I guess it's 1-0 for Russia, not having generated an enemy that has to be bombed to smitereens.

 

Uh, do you mean the Ukrainians? 2 years ago, they were considered "the same people as us" by Russians. Now they have all apparently turned into super-evil genocidal Nazis.

 

Putin has lost the only other important country which might join the Eurasian Union. This for a few scraps of land he's now paying to support. It's short-sighted, dumb and predictable imperialism at it's worst. Putin's strategy of destabilizing Ukraine indefinitely in the East is going to bite him in the ass when he alienates the Ukrainians further. You could try to make the point that this schism between Russia and Ukraine was inevitable due to backlash from Soviet imperialism, but I think not.

[HoonDing]

[Zoraptor]

*sigh*

 

so you admit the silly claim that russian self-imposed sanctions were only west shooting self,  and the context o' the following...

 

...

 

"I find the talk of Russia shooting itself in the foot over [counter] sanctions rather amusing, frankly [..] That they [Euros] were dumb enough and had enough hubris to think there wouldn't be blowback [..] Overall, nice work , EU, now aim the shotgun at the other foot"

 

It's still about the counter sanctions, and the assumption from the west that Russia would not do counter sanctions. Says nothing at all about whether western sanctions would be effective. Sheesh, I even use the same metaphor as bookends, connected entirely by agricultural based stuff.

 

our mention of six months, To A Year, came AFTER your ostrich routine without your imagined context.

 

Oh, I said that stuff. We'll find out who's correct in a year. Tell you what, I'll even put 'money' where mouth is in bet form. If Russia is out of reserves within a year I'll change my avatar to an ostrich, for a year. I'm confident enough that I'll do so even if you don't match me. Still, I invite you to match that pledge, for if it's longer than a year.

 

so, given that we is all on same page with you trying to imagine away the russian financial crisis, please explain away Alexei Kudrin? his comments about 40% o' the devaluation o' the ruble being due to western sanctions is imagined by yellow journalists we 'spose, or is the result o' a conspiracy?

 

 

Oh ffs, if you insist and since this is at least relevant to something I have said instead of your imagination. Your figure, 30% price increase. My figure 100% increase due to exchange rate. Mr Kudrin, 40% of that due to sanctions which I'll assume is accurate for these purposes*, note bottom. Imports would still be 30% more expensive than the price increase even with that. That's why it's irrelevant, imported food would still be baseline 30% more expensive and could not do anything other than raise prices further if imports continued. That really is basic maths.

 

Oh, and since I'm wasting time on your links: "Russia is poised to exhaust its two reserve funds in 18 months if oil prices stay at around current levels of $50 a barrel." Your own link contradicts your 6-12 months figure...

 

"Russia will import 40 percent less foreign goods, which will contribute to the ruble’s stabilization. Russia’s currency, which has depreciated by at least 40 percent this year, will likely stabilize at the beginning of 2015 at its current levels, according to Kudrin." Ah, so he says reducing imports helps the currency. And what do the counter sanctions do? Yep, reduce imports. I really hope that isn't where the 40% figure you quoted comes from though.

 

(*)Cannot find a reference to 40% of the currency drop being due to sanctions in either of those links and The FT link is borked in your post here so I cannot check, as you've C&Ped the abbreviatory elliptics into it- plus it's regwalled- so I'd request the direct C&P quote from that article where he says it.

[Zoraptor]

Uh, do you mean the Ukrainians? 2 years ago, they were considered "the same people as us" by Russians. Now they have all apparently turned into super-evil genocidal Nazis.

 

All? They tend to limit that description to western Ukrainians and the government, they certainly wouldn't describe the eastern Ukrianians as such.

 

Putin has lost the only other important country which might join the Eurasian Union.

Yeah, but he lost them February last year when the coup happened and Yats and Turchenov decided to expedite signing of the EU agreement; not when Crimea regained its self determination and separated from Ukraine as it had tried to do in 1994- a legal process per World Court Kosovo- then petitioned to join Russia. The idea of Ukraine joining the EU- or even NATO- is now moot as well, can't happen while a bankrupt country is in a haemorrhagic 7% p/a depression and fighting.

 

(Odd fact, New Zealand was close to joining the Eurasian Union, effectively. Not that I'd really class us as 'important', but it's illustrative. We almost certainly will too, once it becomes politically expedient- after all we haven't sanctioned them and they haven't sanctioned us for precisely that reason)

[Hassat Hunter]

Uh, do you mean the Ukrainians? 2 years ago, they were considered "the same people as us" by Russians. Now they have all apparently turned into super-evil genocidal Nazis.

 

Putin has lost the only other important country which might join the Eurasian Union. This for a few scraps of land he's now paying to support. It's short-sighted, dumb and predictable imperialism at it's worst. Putin's strategy of destabilizing Ukraine indefinitely in the East is going to bite him in the ass when he alienates the Ukrainians further. You could try to make the point that this schism between Russia and Ukraine was inevitable due to backlash from Soviet imperialism, but I think not.

There really isn't one "Ukrain"... it's more evident now than ever there's the Western Ukrainians (pro-EU) and the Eastern Ukrainians (pro-Russia).

Now this could all have been resolved peacefully if people accepted that their country is so divided that splitting them in 2 would be best.

Instead... West-Ukraine, having undone themselves of the East-Ukrainian leadership in Kiev, decided to pull out the army to keep the divided country a single nation... even if that meant destroying said nation, and the inevitable happening that the people are just too divided to keep one country without constant conflicts.

 

It still only is the fault of the "West" that we have this conflict. The democratic chosen government (mostly by the East) was thrown over... what did we EXPECT to happen? Russia has nothing to do with it. "We" should have just accepted a split in 2 countries. Instead we pay in blood to keep 2 divided countries one single one. I am not blaming Russia or the Eastern "terrorists" as we like to call them. All the blame lies in Kiev for instead of just dealing with the fact the East didn't want to (or they never chosen the leader they did), they try to suppress them with force and violence.

Something we apparently dispise Assad for doing, but we kindly look the other way here cause this time the dictators are on 'our side'... basically politics as usual thus.