The Iraq war was a disgrace, but sometimes we forget just how much

[BruceVC]

The west are of course at fault for creating the power vacuum that exists now in the region.

 

However, however the people themselves there are to be blamed as well. Anti-democratic, anti-modern and reactionary guerillas do not appear out thin air. They come from local homes, from local businesses with local values. Anything else would be like blaming the British for the American Civil War.

 

I agree, a power vacuum was created  when the West pulled out. And as I mentioned the violence is caused by the marginalization of the Sunni minority in the new Iraq, this is not a fault of the West but how the current Iraq government has managed inclusivity in the new government 

[Malcador]

Think it was more caused by them storming the country in the first place.

[HoonDing]

Send in the clowns drones.

[JadedWolf]

I'll just leave this quote here:

 

 

"ISIS's seizure of Mosul is a major threat to Middle East stability, not just Iraq. It highlights the risk that Sunni Islamist extremists with past ties to al Qaeda will create an extremist enclave in both Iraq and Syria,” he said. “This could make any hope of a serious moderate rebel force emerging in Syria impossible. It could create an extremist sanctuary that could threaten Jordan and the other Arab Gulf states, make the conflict between Sunni and Shiite even worse, and push the Iraqi regime closer to Iran in self defense."

 

Cordesman added that the situation may force the US and its allies to prop up Maliki, despite what he described as the PM's "total unfitness to rule" and conduct which actually helped ISIS gain support in Iraq.

 

"Maliki has been steadily more authoritarian, corrupt, and repressive. He has made the Iraqi security force his political tool, deprived it of effective leaders, used security funds for his own profit, and brought his supporters and relatives into the command chain,” he said. “His ruthless repression of legitimate Sunni opposition and pressure on the Kurds, and lies and broken promises to Sunni tribal leaders have lost the support of Iraq's Sunnis and Kurds and empowered ISIS."

 

https://news.vice.com/article/iraq-vows-to-beat-back-isis-after-militants-seize-saddam-husseins-hometown-of-tikrit

 

The problem seems to be once again, like in so many troubles countries in this region, that the people propped up by our politicians are incompetent, corrupt and of questionable morals.

[Monte Carlo]

 

 

The problem seems to be once again, like in so many troubles countries in this region, that the people propped up by our politicians are incompetent, corrupt and of questionable morals.

 

And those are the good guys.

[Leferd]

Tikrit is now overrun and major oil fields are under the control of ISIS. They are now 90 miles away from Baghdad.

 

Maliki has been pretty stubborn about asking for assistance. But the USAF can scare the bejesus out of ISIS very quickly and there are assets within range in the area. Or the Navy. They have carriers in the region. Iraq must ask formally.

[Walsingham]

And yet, once again we find that zoomy shoot shoot doesn't actually address the most minor political issues.

 

I'm in favour of letting the Iraqis play this one out to the finish. Because unlike most anti-Bush protesters I happen to be a fan of democracy in Iraq.

[Guard Dog]

Not the biggest mistake of all but still a mistake was not breaking Iraq up into different countries once the fighting was finished. The entire nation itself was an artificial construct of the post WWI peace and has only been held together by brute force. First the British, then Hussien. The flaw in the US thinking was that Kurds, Sunnis & Shias would all be able to live together in the magical land of republican democracy where they would share power and be nice to each other. Not act like savages. Because, there are so many examples around the world  where that is happening right?

[Rostere]

Not the biggest mistake of all but still a mistake was not breaking Iraq up into different countries once the fighting was finished. The entire nation itself was an artificial construct of the post WWI peace and has only been held together by brute force. First the British, then Hussien. The flaw in the US thinking was that Kurds, Sunnis & Shias would all be able to live together in the magical land of republican democracy where they would share power and be nice to each other. Not act like savages. Because, there are so many examples around the world  where that is happening right?

 

As a general rule I think people are better off together, but there are instances where that is very obviously not a sufficient short-term solution.

 

Nevertheless, I think these Sunni extremists are probably not going to go much further. They are currently just north of Baghdad which is a scary thought, but if we take a look at this and this, we might get a better picture of what is really happening. The situation right now is pretty much that the Sunni ISIS have taken control over the Sunni areas of Iraq (of which large parts is desert anyway), and the (mostly Shia) Iraqi army has fled from these areas, leaving them to their own fate. It is important to understand in this context that the Iraqi army has had a lot of trouble with Sunni extremists in the Sunni-dominated regions, so when they are faced with an invasion, they are more than happy (as individuals, the Iraqi state of course is not happy) to leave these regions behind. It is only when ISIS reaches Shia areas that the fighting will begin in earnest.

 

Which brings us to the two unlikely aces in Iraq's hand in the defense against ISIS - Iran, and also the Kurdish Peshmerga. It is rumoured that Iran has already sent military support to Maliki, to prevent their Shia brothers from a humiliating defeat. A large-scale intervention by Iran would seem very unlikely, but if ISIS against the odds manage to get a foothold in Baghdad, anything can happen. The Kurds have already held their ground against ISIS in Syria, and their forces in Iraq are far more numerous and better equipped. The Peshmerga (allied with the US during the invasion) in Iraq seems very determined to fight ISIS, I doubt they will yield an inch of ground, a consolidation of Kurdish control over previously disputed areas seems more likely - I consider the Peshmerga better than or on par with Hezbollah in discipline, and considering that the latter have already pretty much blocked ISIS from progress in Syria that gives food for thought. Here's an article from the Guardian on the same subject.

 

The big question is really who, when ISIS has been stopped at Baghdad and on Kurdistan's borders, is going to bother to undertake an offensive operation and drive ISIS away. The Kurds are fiercely protective of their own land but are generally isolationist, and the Iraqi Shias can't seem to muster the will, after Sunni separatists have been a major PITA the last 11 years.

[Walsingham]

I'm just checking my Obama Administration secret foreign policy decoder ring...

 

Huh. Must be broken. Neither drone strikes or handshakes will work this time.

[Gorgon]

Just watched a documentary on Vietnam. Funnt how Iraq worked out pretty much the same. Assuming for a minuite that the collapse of 'democratic' Iraq is imminent. 

[JadedWolf]

Just watched a documentary on Vietnam. Funnt how Iraq worked out pretty much the same. Assuming for a minuite that the collapse of 'democratic' Iraq is imminent. 

 

I doubt it will collapse. The Kurds are still at the sidelines, but they could quickly halt Isis if they wanted to. And there's also Iran who wouldn't like to see their new bestest Shiite buddies toppled.

[Junai]

"The decade-long American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would end up costing as much as $6 trillion, the equivalent of $75,000 for every American household, calculates the prestigious Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government."

 

Was it worth it?

 

Americans are undoubtedly the most generous people. Ghost towns all over.

The break their own backs to send Iraqi girls to school. That's how unselfish they are!

 

I encourage all Americans to be more selfish. Spend all that money on yourselves. Don't waste

it on Iraqi and Afghan nation building. Let those people sort out their own affairs!

Want to be a good conservative? Conserve your own country! Spend the money on yourselves.

Don't bankrupt yourselves to save other people. Don't waste money on warfare. Don't sell your

land and natural resources to China. Be good Americans. Spend it all on yourselves.

That's what a good right-wing conservative does. He thinks about himself and his own country.

Be a good republican and save the United States!

 

J.

[Zoraptor]

 

Just watched a documentary on Vietnam. Funnt how Iraq worked out pretty much the same. Assuming for a minuite that the collapse of 'democratic' Iraq is imminent. 

 

I doubt it will collapse. The Kurds are still at the sidelines, but they could quickly halt Isis if they wanted to. And there's also Iran who wouldn't like to see their new bestest Shiite buddies toppled.

 

Yeah, if Iran props up Assad there's no chance of them not propping up Iraq as well. Realistically there's no chance of majority shia areas getting taken and held, there's still far too many weapons in general circulation and many in the general population have military experience through the old Iraqi army or the previous rounds of sectarian troubles, it's no coincidence that the areas taken are all predominantly sunni so less likely to have general popular resistance.

[Walsingham]

I think it's too early to write off the Iraqi government. And I think it's a bit sickening to see so many 'right on' commentators getting off on the crisis.

[Malcador]

I think it's too early to write off the Iraqi government. And I think it's a bit sickening to see so many 'right on' commentators getting off on the crisis.

They're just lulling ISIL into a false sense of security by letting them take cities.

[Katphood]

Did someone talk about post-war?! This is how it looks like:

 

[obyknven]

Saigon 2014, americans begin flee from Baghdad. Stupid US escapade in Iraq ( by cost of  killing few hundreds thousands civilians in process ) ended by epic failure. Same thing in Afghanistan expected soon.  Lamerica... what you are doing

[Rostere]

Okay. Now anything can happen.

[JadedWolf]

Okay. Now anything can happen.

 

That IS unexpected.

[BruceVC]

Okay. Now anything can happen.

 

This is interesting but I can't see Iraq being carved  up with the Kurds getting there own state or the marginalized Sunnis getting the same.

 

I am finding the political dynamics of the ISIS crisis very interesting and some new bits of information have come to my attention, these include

 

• The ISIS fighters also consist of alienated powerful Iraqi tribal Sunni's who don't actually want an independent ISIS state but more recognition in the Maliki government
• The USA can definitely assist through airstrikes but then they are indirectly assisting Assad is Syria as he is also grappling with ISIS and this is something the USA understandably doesn't  want to do
• Its makes a weird but refreshing change to see the USA and Iran collaborating on what to do to prevent ISIS from completely destabilizing Iraq

 

Whatever the end result I think Maliki has done an abysmal job in managing the country since the USA pulled out. He has failed to properly incorporate the powerful but small Sunni minority in his new government so I expect to see changes in his policies going forward if he wants to ensure economic and political stability in for Iraq

[Hildegard]

Black humor with ISIS backfiring against Western interests. Same thing happening again and again with them being funded, armed and payed by the West, Turkey and especially Saudi Arabia in the conflict against Assad. 

[Zoraptor]

The ISIS fighters also consist of alienated powerful Iraqi tribal Sunni's who don't actually want an independent ISIS state but more recognition in the Maliki government

Or in other words, they aren't actually ISIS insurgents however the media simplifies things, but a generalised sunni insurgency. In many cases they're the same secular sunnis who either supported Saddam/ the Ba'ath party right to the end or the tribal groups who fought against al-Qaeda when the US was paying them to and Zarqawi and his successors had peeved them sufficiently. As always, they'll start fighting each other once/ if they actually achieve their military goals because the only thing that unifies them is antagonism to the central Iraqi state and their long term goals are largely antithetical apart from that.

 

Whatever the end result I think Maliki has done an abysmal job in managing the country since the USA pulled out. He has failed to properly incorporate the powerful but small Sunni minority in his new government so I expect to see changes in his policies going forward if he wants to ensure economic and political stability in for Iraq

Stick a fork in Maliki, he's done. He might linger on for a bit as a lame duck because, frankly, who would want his job at this point- but he's lost everyone's confidence outside Iraq and the army's capitulation has destroyed his credibility inside. Will be interesting to see the reaction if Iraq breaks up though, whether it will be a 'travesty', 'against international law' etc etc. Probably yes if it's ISIS doing it, probably not if it's the Kurds- especially now they've taken advantage of the situation to grab their one major outstanding territorial desire, Kirkuk. And associated oil fields.

[Gromnir]

Just watched a documentary on Vietnam. Funnt how Iraq worked out pretty much the same. Assuming for a minuite that the collapse of 'democratic' Iraq is imminent. 

am knowing it ain't how you meant it, but total US dead in vietnam is something 'tween 45k and 60k depending on source used. US dead for iraq were less than 5k. 

[Gorgon]

More along the lines of running out of enthusiasm for the  cause, claming victory and bailing.