Tension in East Asia

[Moose]

"North Korea says it will use its "nuclear deterrent" in response to joint US-South Korean military exercises this weekend."

 

"The war games - which begin on Sunday - will involve the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, 20 other ships and submarines, 100 aircraft and 8,000 personnel."

Clicky

 

/Popcorn

[Humodour]

North Korea is always threatening to bomb someone. The day they actually do it is the day they get steamrolled and the whole area becomes more peaceful.

 

They've caused Chinas massive headaches - now they've got the US military training on their doorstep and treading all over their supposed "emerging superpower" status (which is garbage anyway - they're no more an emerging superpower than India or Brazil). And there's nothing the Chinese hate more than looking like they can't handle their own affairs. Then again, maybe if the Chinese did something about North Korea this wouldn't be happening.

[WILL THE ALMIGHTY]

North Korea is always threatening to bomb someone. The day they actually do it is the day they get steamrolled and the whole area becomes more peaceful.

They still have quite the large army and probably enough weapons/tanks/etc... to defend itself annoyingly well. I wouldn't say they'd get "steamrolled", especially since guerrilla tactics are pretty easy to pull off in a country like North Korea.

[Morgoth]

North Korea does a lot of barking, but can they also bite?

[lord of flies]

North Korea does a lot of barking, but can they also bite?

So you admit that the DPRK was not responsible for the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan?

[Gorth]

North Korea does a lot of barking, but can they also bite?

46 dead sailors says 'Yes'

[WILL THE ALMIGHTY]

It's not like the last war in Korea ended well.

[Hurlshort]

It's not like the last war in Korea ended well.

 

But we got some great episodes of MASH out of it.

[Syraxis]

They still have quite the large army and probably enough weapons/tanks/etc... to defend itself annoyingly well.

 

Depends on how well all that equipment is maintained, I can't really see said arsenal being in top shape.

[Purkake]

[Walsingham]

North Korea does a lot of barking, but can they also bite?

So you admit that the DPRK was not responsible for the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan?

 

Please tell me that was a conspiracy. Please. I could use a laugh.

 

Krez: I'm not sure how seriously to take your analysis if you're saying India and Brazil aren't on the way to superpower status. At least potentially.

[lord of flies]

Please tell me that was a conspiracy. Please. I could use a laugh.

Ah, so you believe that the DPRK has submarines which can one-shot corvettes in shallow waters without being detected? The Defense Minister of the South, Kim Tae-young, "ruled out a torpedo attack from North Korea, which would have been spotted by radar." (Washington Post)

 

I don't know what actually happened. It seems likely that there was an old mine from the Korean War which went off (or the ship simply ran aground), and that subsequent investigation has been highly politicized or simply reached an incorrect conclusion.

Edited July 24, 2010 by lord of flies

[Gorgon]

Mines and torpedoes give off different kinds of explosions. Mines need to be triggered by contact while torpedoes explode prior to impact to maximize the effect of the explosion. Looking at the wreckage experts can tell them apart. So, no mine strike.

[Gorgon]

I was watching a documentary on Henry Kissinger and it was interesting to hear him talk about the Tonkin bay incident. Basically for nearly two days the US was not certain whether it had been attacked at all. Obviously technology has improved a lot since then, but fog of war is still a factor and facts can be lost through the chain of command.

[Humodour]

Mines and torpedoes give off different kinds of explosions. Mines need to be triggered by contact while torpedoes explode prior to impact to maximize the effect of the explosion. Looking at the wreckage experts can tell them apart. So, no mine strike.

 

You forgot the fact that they found an exploded NK submarine torpedo in the area of the wreckage which matched the ballistics...

[Zoraptor]

Mines need to be triggered by contact

Nope, they don't (see spefcifically 'influence mines' as wiki calles them). Haven't since at least WW2 as the Germans had magnetic mines (as well as magnetic torpedoes) which could be nullified by degaussing ships, by that point. They also (can, it does of course depend on the exact torpedo/ exact mine) use the same explosives. I know the contact thing keeps getting repeated but it's simply wrong

 

In this case LoF is right at least on one thing, ROK itself ruled out a torpedo attack initially for several reasons- main one being that there were no 'missing' DPRK submarines and that particular area has the most active/ passive sonar in the world for obvious reasons- and there was absolutely no indications from any intelligence sources that the DPRK had any knowledge about it, no unusual chatter etc.

 

Whether it actually was a fix is unprovable of course, it certainly is politically expedient for the ROK's ruling party to blame the DPRK and they definitely had DPRK origin torpedoes available (from a submarine they nabbed trying to extract DPRK special forces, IIRC). Also their idea of an 'independent' panel was somewhat... well, it would have rather more impact if somewhere like Russia had been included. As it stands the only one with a shred of independence is Sweden.

[213374U]

a submarine they nabbed trying to extract DPRK special forces, IIRC

I hadn't heard anything about this. When was that? Do you have a link?

[Raithe]

It's not like the last war in Korea ended well.

 

But we got some great episodes of MASH out of it.

 

Although a lot of the MASH episodes were inspired by events that happened during Vietnam rather then strictly Korea...

(just for the pedantic trivia...)

[~Di]

I don't think NK is stupid enough to do anything, but if they did decide to start a war they have enough conventional artillary aimed at Seoul to flatten the city before a response could be mustered. Sure, SK with USA backing would win, but there would be enormous casualities. I certainly don't want to see 30,000 American soldiers wiped out in the first wave.

[Humodour]

In this case LoF is right at least on one thing, ROK itself ruled out a torpedo attack initially for several reasons- main one being that there were no 'missing' DPRK submarines and that particular area has the most active/ passive sonar in the world for obvious reasons- and there was absolutely no indications from any intelligence sources that the DPRK had any knowledge about it, no unusual chatter etc.

 

That's incorrect: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_...on_Group_report

 

NK subs were found leaving and returning to a port in the area before and after the attack.

[Zoraptor]

That contradicts their initial statements. It would be a bit embarrassing if true as (1) the Cheonan was an anti-submarine corvette and (2) there are a staggering number of active and passive sonars in that area.

 

Doesn't mean the report isn't true, but most of the 'definitive' details released are no where near as definitive as they're made out to be.

 

a submarine they nabbed trying to extract DPRK special forces, IIRC

I hadn't heard anything about this. When was that? Do you have a link?

This mentions two incidents, though it obviously isn't the greatest source in the world for specifics.

Edited July 25, 2010 by Zoraptor

[Humodour]

That contradicts their initial statements. It would be a bit embarrassing if true as (1) the Cheonan was an anti-submarine corvette and (2) there are a staggering number of active and passive sonars in that area.

 

Doesn't mean the report isn't true, but most of the 'definitive' details released are no where near as definitive as they're made out to be.

 

It means the South Koreans didn't want to jump to conclusions without a thorough investigation - which took place over several months, and was party to by multiple other countries and bodies.

 

As far as I know the Cheonan did know it was being attacked - just too late - as a distress call was sent off saying they were being attacked. Moreover at least one of the attacking subs was a new piece of stealth technology.

 

(2) there are a staggering number of active and passive sonars in that area.

 

Are you saying the South Koreans deliberately killed 46 of their sailors (with a North Korean torpedo), because no enemy could possibly attack in that area? This is borderline conspiracy nut nonsense dude.

Edited July 25, 2010 by Krezack

[Tigranes]

The fact that NK subs were found leaving/returning was known ad reported quite very early, but SK didn't draw full conclusions from it until after the investigation.

 

Are you saying the South Koreans deliberately killed 46 of their sailors (with a North Korean torpedo), because no enemy could possibly attack in that area? This is borderline conspiracy nut nonsense dude. sad.gif

 

Well, you know, the last Korean president committed suicide a little while back - and I've read some convincing arguments that there are question marks over his death that were not really looked into. Someone needs to do a superconspiracy out of this.

 

It was very Sherlock Holmes, actually - there were a number of anomalies about security cameras failing to pick up movements reported by witnesses, the logical contradictions in the president's bodyguard's alibi, the weird time-lag between president's time of disappearance, supposed time of death and time of alarm, difficulty in identifying body, etc.

 

(He lives!)

[Volourn]

" Sure, SK with USA backing would win, but there would be enormous casualities. I certainly don't want to see 30,000 American soldiers wiped out in the first wave. "

 

Even with a flat out nuclear strike that is guaranteed to happen. Afterall, the US and allies bombarded Iraq with almost unlimited missles with 'Shock & Awe' yet the casualties were rather minimal considering.

 

Still, yes, a lot of people die, but hey that's war. Sometimes sacrifices need to be made,. Afterall, sin't that why we celebrate WW2 soliders for their sacrifices? Because, sadly, those sacrifices had to be made because of scumbags?

[Zoraptor]

It means the South Koreans didn't want to jump to conclusions without a thorough investigation - which took place over several months, and was party to by multiple other countries and bodies[..] As far as I know the Cheonan did know it was being attacked - just too late - as a distress call was sent off saying they were being attacked. Moreover at least one of the attacking subs was a new piece of stealth technology.

(1) Doesn't really compute. You wouldn't say 'don't jump to conclusions, it was probably a mine' if you knew all along it was a torpedo.

(2) Captain's ship blows in half, he phones in a 'we are being attacked' message. If it happened before his ship blew in half it'd be fairly compelling, for sure, but after? All he knows is that there's a big explosion. There's no suggestion that a torpedo launch was detected at any point, just an explosion.

(3) First I've heard of them having new stealth tech, considering the US sonar is designed to detect 'proper' stealth tech used by the Russians on SSBNs I find it difficult to believe that DPRK has better, though I'd be willing to be convinced if you can provide evidence.

Are you saying the South Koreans deliberately killed 46 of their sailors (with a North Korean torpedo), because no enemy could possibly attack in that area? This is borderline conspiracy nut nonsense dude.

Perhaps you'd care to furnish the quote where I suggest that?

 

Either an accident or a mine would be alternatives to 'hey let's murder some of our own sailors'. Given what I'd already said I would have thought it obvious what I considered the most likely alternative- hint: I'm hardly going to say that it didn't have to be a torpedo (the parts of which constitute the only actual proof of anything other than a non contact explosion) and could be a mine in two separate places if I thought it had to be/ was a torpedo.