Gaza - conflict, war, land, water rights, bad colonional legacies...

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/10/israel-war-hamas-terrorism-ukraine-russia/675590/

Not sure we're really headed for an era of open brutality. Not sure we left it all that much really

To be honest Im a little confused  by the point you making, I didnt think you cared about the rules based order because you often mock and joke about it?

Does it matter to you and do you believe in it? 

 

[Malcador]

14 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

To be honest Im a little confused  by the point you making, I didnt think you cared about the rules based order because you often mock and joke about it?

Does it matter to you and do you believe in it? 

 

 Isn't much of an order when it's applied sometimes and supposed champions break it and it's all good largely.   Just is funny to see normal people speak of it, really.

[Sarex]

Seem there is something happening on the border with Lebanon or at least Israel is preparing for something.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Sarex

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

Seem there is something happening on the border with Lebanon or at least Israel is preparing for some

And apparently Syria has shelled Israel

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/10/10/israel-hamas-war-live-appeals-for-safe-corridor-gaza-toll-goes-past-700?update=2399430

[Zoraptor]

Golan Heights --> occupied Syria, not Israel. Bit odd for Al-J not to make the distinction, since they did for Hezbollah shelling the GH and (also occupied) Shebaa Farms previously, and just regurgitating an Israeli press release.

In any case, so far it's the military equivalent of #StopBibi2023 for both Syria and Hezbollah; a meaningless expression of solidarity without actually doing anything more than firing at empty fields. Which happens a few times a year, usually without much reporting.

Going to be very interesting seeing how the Rules Based Order copes with a state party to their Order literally declaring they're going to commit war crimes- and you don't get much more war crimey than Israel's declaration.

[Malcador]

44 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Going to be very interesting seeing how the Rules Based Order copes with a state party to their Order literally declaring they're going to commit war crimes- and you don't get much more war crimey than Israel's declaration.

Easy - just say it's Hamas fault.  Either as they were using human shields or they started the conflict in the first place.  I like the last one, apparently some munitions are just forces of nature.  At least that's a bit better than the people that say they don't condone or excuse things but "understand" them.

[HoonDing]

When death toll reaches around 5,000 either the US will tell them to stop or a big fat Hezbollah rocket will hit Dimona.

[Zoraptor]

All the important stuff at Dimona is underground. Same as all the important Iranian nuclear stuff is underground.

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Easy - just say it's Hamas fault. 

I was thinking a bit more towards the legal end of things. ICC set itself a precedent and yardstick with Putin, now to see if they'll live up to the rhetoric. Declaring that everything is someone else's fault works (somewhat*) publicly/ politically but is specifically precluded from being a defence against war crimes. An indictment against Israels' Defence Minister or Bibi would be... interesting and not just to see how quickly Biden(/ Kirby et al) remembers he voted for the Hague Invasion Act once it's someone he likes in trouble with the ICC. Not going to be holding my breath for the ICC to do anything though, even with that explicit confirmation from the Israeli Defence Minister.

Kind of surprised that waste of space Borrell actually said something similar, minus the sledge at Biden, I certainly expected the sort of mealy mouthed 'but Hamas is bad!' responses Kirby gave.

*somewhat because the kind of person who'd actually accept that argument is fundamentally not going to accept anything other than Israel being in the right. It's not really about actual justification since they'd accept no justification at all, it's about allowing people to still feel morally superior.

Quote

At least that's a bit better than the people that say they don't condone or excuse things but "understand" them.

Meh, that depends on whether they're trying to justify atrocities by stealth or just explain one side's POV. You can understand both the Palestinian and Israel view and explain them without agreeing with or advocating for either.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

59 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Meh, that depends on whether they're trying to justify atrocities by stealth or just explain one side's POV. You can understand both the Palestinian and Israel view and explain them without agreeing with or advocating for either.

Most of it I've seen lately is justifying the IDF "taking the gloves off".  Not sure why everyone seems to assume the IDF are going to turn into some psycho killers with their response.  But 'tis a poisoned well I am drinking from anyway, is a subreddit

Fair enough, didn't think you had meant legal.  As you say the ICC's not going to try to touch them.  Mossad would probably off a couple of ICC people if they did

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

 

Going to be very interesting seeing how the Rules Based Order copes with a state party to their Order literally declaring they're going to commit war crimes- and you don't get much more war crimey than Israel's declaration.

Well thats an easy one to answer, there is no rules based order  implementation when it comes to this conflict and most of the actions of Israel or Hamas

It didnt exist when Hamas attacked on Saturday and it wont exist in the Israeli response and thats fairly common with the response and actions from both sides 

 

[Elerond]

5 hours ago, Malcador said:

Most of it I've seen lately is justifying the IDF "taking the gloves off".  Not sure why everyone seems to assume the IDF are going to turn into some psycho killers with their response.  But 'tis a poisoned well I am drinking from anyway, is a subreddit

Fair enough, didn't think you had meant legal.  As you say the ICC's not going to try to touch them.  Mossad would probably off a couple of ICC people if they did

Members of IDF are conscripts, from most don't actually have any experience of war that have been now forced to clean corpses of civilians worst massacre in Israel's history and it seem that next there is plan to send them among people that are hostile towards them, whom those members have seen in social media celebrating deaths of those civilians whose corpses they have just picked and send to be buried to look terrorist that they have hard time to identify among the hostile civilian population. And they have political leadership that tells them to avenge the attack. So IDF "taking the gloves off" is more question how well IDF leadership can keep discipline of troops up.

Israel is not member of ICC, only way they will be hold as responsible by ICC is that some other country invades and conquers Israel. ICC is pretty powerless, from which big thanks goes to USA and Russia.

[Zoraptor]

The last bit is incorrect. The situation is the same as for Russia/ Ukraine. Neither party there is a member of the ICC either, but one party has requested an investigation and the ICC has accepted jurisdiction. Palestine requested an investigation, the ICC accepted.

(Relevant history/ ruling/ etc from the ICC is here for anyone interested)

[Elerond]

10 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

The last bit is incorrect. The situation is the same as for Russia/ Ukraine. Neither party there is a member of the ICC either, but one party has requested an investigation and the ICC has accepted jurisdiction. Palestine requested an investigation, the ICC accepted.

(Relevant history/ ruling/ etc from the ICC is here for anyone interested)

ICC does investigations and gives judgements but there usually is no enforcement because USA and Russia threaten with severe actions if anything is done to their citizens, which also limits quite lot ICC's power to make actions against any one from countries that aren't members.

Even member states, ignore ICC's arrest warrants when target is anyone with political power. 

[Zoraptor]

Yeah, I don't think anyone actually expects to see Bibi in the dock in The Hague any more than BushW or Blair (or Putin). Not like I have a high opinion of the ICC, after all.

(The issue is that the siege threat was so explicit that it would be almost impossible to use any of the usual arguments that it isn't a war crime. Can't say that water was cut off accidentally when you've said you're doing it deliberately, and a siege of that sort is inherently a war crime. That starts to shift the balance towards the ICC having to do something, because its own credibility is on the line. And they also can't say it isn't their jurisdiction either)

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, Elerond said:

Members of IDF are conscripts, from most don't actually have any experience of war that have been now forced to clean corpses of civilians worst massacre in Israel's history and it seem that next there is plan to send them among people that are hostile towards them, whom those members have seen in social media celebrating deaths of those civilians whose corpses they have just picked and send to be buried to look terrorist that they have hard time to identify among the hostile civilian population. And they have political leadership that tells them to avenge the attack. So IDF "taking the gloves off" is more question how well IDF leadership can keep discipline of troops up.

Israel is not member of ICC, only way they will be hold as responsible by ICC is that some other country invades and conquers Israel. ICC is pretty powerless, from which big thanks goes to USA and Russia.

I suppose I have a little more faith in the IDF command and training even for the reservists and conscrjpts. Even if they want to be Dayan's mad dog, war crimes isn't really in Israel's long term interest.  Think some are just being wishful for Palestinians to die en masse.

 

[BruceVC]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/years-of-subterfuge-high-tech-barrier-paralyzed-how-hamas-busted-israels-defenses

Here is a really interesting link about how Israels defensive line was breached with Gaza and the overall sophistication and planning involved  with the Hamas attack. No doubt in my mind that Iran was involved in the strategizing and resources 

Its reminiscent of the failures of the  Maginot line in  France 

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by BruceVC

[xzar_monty]

22 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That starts to shift the balance towards the ICC having to do something, because its own credibility is on the line. And they also can't say it isn't their jurisdiction either)

The ICC, like the UN, is a wonderful idea. Some of the things they've done are actually good, too.

But when the going gets tough, we get to witness some pretty drastic prioritization of concerns. I have mentioned this before, but the same hierarchy is clearly visible on the individual level, too: the vast majority of people want to see justice being done, but when faced with a choice where either justice is done or someone dear to us gets out of trouble at the expense of justice being done, more than half of us will choose the latter, according to various studies. So we value our friends more than we value justice, just like countries and organizations value their colleagues/whatnot more than they value justice. It's not pretty.

[Malcador]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/12/no-power-water-or-fuel-to-gaza-until-hostages-freed-says-israeli-minister

Wonder when people will start to lean on Israel a bit on this.

[HoonDing]

I think they already bombed them

[ShadySands]

On 10/11/2023 at 10:42 AM, Gromnir said:

israel not knowing is disappointing 'cause they is considered among the best at sniffing out such info.

This plus

On 10/11/2023 at 10:42 AM, Gromnir said:

bs receptivity and conspiratorial thinking is most pronounced amongst groups who feel as if they has been getting the fuzzy end o' the lollypop. lack of education (as opposed to lack o' intelligence) is also a typical factor o' those likely to fall prey to bs and conspiracy. 

Has certain folks in my family circles hitting the conspiracy sauce hard. 

 

[Malcador]

 

[Zoraptor]

16 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Its reminiscent of the failures of the  Maginot line in  France

There may be some similarities to French thinking prior to WW2 but for Maginot specifically there's only one peripheral similarity, that a few Hamas went around it via the sea. The vast majority went straight through the Gaza barrier. The Maginot Line broadly did its job, as designed, and was not penetrated until after the war was lost in Flanders and Paris captured; its job was just irrelevant to the war Germany fought. The Gazan barrier was relevant, and it didn't do its job at all.

There's literally nothing in that article that shows any particular sophistication beyond what might reasonably be expected. Even the coordination, given that the surge in Hamas comms was specifically noted as being detected but just not acted on. Shooting out cameras and attacking observation posts plus using drones is not exactly rocket surgery. A lack of planning for that is far more symptomatic of colossal hubris/ lack of imagination on the Israeli side rather than any particular tactical brilliance (or outside help) for Hamas.

[Gorth]

35 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

There's literally nothing in that article that shows any particular sophistication beyond what might reasonably be expected. Even the coordination, given that the surge in Hamas comms was specifically noted as being detected but just not acted on. Shooting out cameras and attacking observation posts plus using drones is not exactly rocket surgery. A lack of planning for that is far more symptomatic of colossal hubris/ lack of imagination on the Israeli side rather than any particular tactical brilliance (or outside help) for Hamas.

I'm fairly sure they knew something was coming. Maybe they didn't know how to respond or prepare for it. I'm sure someone will suggest it was deliberately ignored because it provided a convenient distraction from home affairs, but personally I lean towards the just not taking the warnings seriously option.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047

Israel was warned by Egypt of potential violence three days before Hamas' deadly cross-border raid, a US congressional panel chairman has said.

House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee head Michael McCaul told reporters of the alleged warning.

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu described the reports as "absolutely false".

[Zoraptor]

That all kind of depends on how often there are threats/ warnings but no follow through.

If Egypt reports imminent attacks multiple times a year without them happening then complacency creeps in. Indeed, I'd expect any reasonable strategy from Hamas to include a lot of deliberate false alarms. eg send a lot of mass nonsense texts like 'the dog needs walking on the boulevarde on Mars' or 'the seagull follows the trawler because it thinks: sardines' to operatives multiple times so 'climb Mount Niitaka' looks like just another false alarm. Not really a very sophisticated strategy, but very effective due to human nature and people acclimating to threats when they repeatedly don't eventuate. The issue is more that there didn't seem to be any substantive back up to the fence more than anything, and that's a result of hubris. You should always plan for people to get complacent and Israel certainly seems to have decided that they'd 'solved' the problem with the barrier and didn't need extensive back ups. So it was complacency all the way down.

Very much doubt there was any 'collusion' at work.  Closest analogy is probably Yom Kippur 1973, and Golda Meir resigned after that. Of course she had more integrity in her fingernail clippings than Bibi has in his entire body (no great compliment to Golda's excess keratin though, anything is greater than zero) but still, last thing Bibi wants is more calls to resign and indeed you'd suspect such situations are #1 on his Not To Do List. He's probably got carte blanche (despite some rumblings from Lapid) until the immediate crisis is over, but then all bets are off.

Edited October 13, 2023 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

Well IDF using WP sooner than I had thought.  Sort of funny to see people fainting about the Russians using it in Avdiivka (the RF really likes incendiaries)