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Ukraine Conflict - "The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them."


Mamoulian War

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11 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Official reaction to the Time article by the UA government…

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/10/31/7426576/

Although it showed a very interesting thing here. If US “anonymous” sources give “interview”, some people are all over the board, how untrustworthy they are. When UA “anonymous” sources gave “interview” for this article, no similar reaction around here for some reason 🤷‍♂️

"and the relevant authorities must find out which people in President Zelenskyy's inner circle do not believe Ukraine will win the war."

:lol:

Better responses from people on Twitter,  I found, the author of the article is Russian and therefore is inherently evil. 

16 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Lots of Leopards lost over the last week, at least 7. They didn't seem to be being used at all for months previous.

Western armed briagdes back into the fray in Avdiivka I guess.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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17 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

The tension rises as never before, not only in Ukraine...

Israel fights Hamas. The Myanmar junta collapses across northern Shan state. The RSF is attacking with the help of Wagnerites in Sudan. Eastern Syria is ready to explode. Tuareg rebels take more ground in northern Mali, the GNU & LNA are moving in Libya. Then there is conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, one new separatist group in Ethiopia after another, and there is rumoured military buildup on the Venezuela-Guyana border. And of course Yemen... Have I forgotten something? When was the last time, when there were so many conflicts around the globe at the same time? This will not end well, if Europe will hesitate to prepare better for the possible war, which Russia started on our soil by spreading disinformation as a part of their Hybrid Warfare against the Europe more than a decade ago...

Many academics in international security are beginning to wonder about this as well. A very recent article in Foreign Affairs asks if the world is now significantly more war and conflict-prone. Another one posits that Russia and China are moving the world towards being more militarized. I have been making these same arguments for some years now within my academic circles, and have been referring to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea collectively as the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

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Zaluzhnyi on what Ukraine needs - https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-what-he-needs-to-beat-russia

Just seems like "everything" to be honest - drones, artillery, mine clearing equipment and reserves.

 

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18 hours ago, kanisatha said:

Many academics in international security are beginning to wonder about this as well. A very recent article in Foreign Affairs asks if the world is now significantly more war and conflict-prone.

It's not looking good. If a proper fatigue sets in on the Ukraine question, Russia will eventually score at least some kind of victory, and will ultimately perhaps swallow even the whole of Ukraine. That will be a lesson for all autocrats everywhere: simply be persistent and ruthless, and "the west" will give up.

Now, there is no question that "the west" is, in many ways, very weak, although it is quite strong in other ways. And the more one looks into the near history of the Ukraine conflict, the more obvious it becomes that Putin was justified in regarding the west as weaklings and idiots (I mean, everything from Syria to Trump and beyond).

The question is manifold and complicated, but I think there's definitely one significant contributing factor: when life gets too easy, a lot of people will become uninterested, unengaged, complacent, uneducated, very easily shaken and lazy.

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16 hours ago, Malcador said:

Zaluzhnyi on what Ukraine needs - https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/11/01/the-commander-in-chief-of-ukraines-armed-forces-on-what-he-needs-to-beat-russia

Just seems like "everything" to be honest - drones, artillery, mine clearing equipment and reserves.

There was also a second piece with him.

Quote

"In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other.”

In short, Ukraine needs a serious technological edge or the war is (at best) a stalemate. 

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5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

a lesson for all autocrats everywhere: simply be persistent and ruthless, and "the west" will give up.

This is it exactly. And it is the direct result of the world overall being very realist whereas the West is the only part of the world that is liberal (in the academic sense of that word and not the US politics sense of it). In a realist world, the lone liberal will get eaten alive.

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3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

In short, Ukraine needs a serious technological edge or the war is (at best) a stalemate. 

Once the Chronosphere is ready, we will win

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

That will be a lesson for all autocrats everywhere: simply be persistent and ruthless, and "the west" will give up.

 

This is why it's superior to being a manualcrat where you have to push in the clutch and shift into persistent then clutch and shift again into ruthless. Just imagine if you screw up and grind the clutch, "the west" will never let you hear the end of it.

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Another victory for Ukraine in arbitration courts.

 

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54 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Another victory for Ukraine in arbitration courts.

Very interesting! Likely to be meaningless, too, in the sense that the money is never going to be paid.

Which reminds me: I was recently listening to this superb series by Timothy Snyder, and he argued and explained how the Soviet system relied on the complete lack of responsibility (for all the terror it caused). Absolutely chilling stuff. It seems to me that this continues in Russia today.

Check out this episode and the next, although you probably know this already. But @BruceVC will probably find this fascinating, too:

 

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4 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Very interesting! Likely to be meaningless, too, in the sense that the money is never going to be paid.

I would not be so sure about this. This is not the first case, and in one going about 4 billions USD to UA oil company from Crimea, even Lavrov was very reluctant on not complying with that court order 🤷‍♂️

And from the orders like this, it seems like, if the losing side is not willing to pay, the winning side can enforce the sale of losers assets in other countries as well, and they have to comply.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/23/7408149/

And there is another fat arbitration against Russia going on again (not connected to UA).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-01/russia-must-face-60-billion-uk-trial-over-yukos-oil-arbitration-award#xj4y7vzkg

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36 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

I would not be so sure about this. This is not the first case, and in one going about 4 billions USD to UA oil company from Crimea, even Lavrov was very reluctant on not complying with that court order 🤷‍♂️

Ok, thank you for that. Clearly you are better informed about this than I am, so let's see (and hope).

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21 hours ago, HoonDing said:

So... they're asking for tactical nuclear weapons now?

That'll come after the advanced technology.  Although did see some Slava Ukraini types online demanding nukes for Ukraine.  Not sure they thought that through. 

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An interesting analysis of Zaluzhniy’s interview.

 

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There's security camera footage of the actual (three) hit(s) as well. One is a clear miss, one's a near miss and the third is pretty much spot on. Militarily, nearly completely irrelevant though. Not going to do anything to stop kalibr's since there are plenty of alternative launch platforms. Replacement cost will be the main issue. Though I think 'heavily armed corvette' is a bit of a contradiction in terms, corvettes as a designation are simply too small to be heavily armed.

Someone also sent one of Zaluzhny's colleagues a boobytrapped present, according to him. That's the second friend of his to die over the course of a few days in questionable circumstances.

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On 11/4/2023 at 1:18 AM, Mamoulian War said:

An interesting analysis of Zaluzhniy’s interview.

 

That guys sounds very Danish 😂

Watching the rest of the video sort of confirmed it, if nothing else, the book title for the book he just managed to do a moments product placement for 😝

 

 

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9 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Here is the video of three missiles at final approach to the target.

 

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@xzar_monty we were discussing some articles about the sustainability of the attrition warfare for the the manpower of both countries, and Yesterday Girkin has posted his view, and what is happening last few monts. And he also stated, that UA has currently manpower advantage. And expects some breakthrough soon, as RU is getting exhausted more and more due to the illogical RU offensives. He praises UA for their ability to hammer the RU deep behind their lines.

Most of his predictions were spot on, despite I consider his as to big of a doomsayer. So it would be interesting to see how his predictions will fare this time…

 

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/7/7427549/

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