The All Things Political Topic - Politics is the entertainment division of the military industrial complex

[Gfted1]

Is that your nickname to your friends?

[Malcador]

37 minutes ago, LadyCrimson said:

Either that or he's constipated.

Someone will mod his photo into Max Payne then

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

On 8/24/2023 at 12:26 AM, Gromnir said:

cotham is an extreme limited state politics scenario and while a legit concern is not gonna be part o' some broad national scheme or strategy.

It's a limited example now, but it's a strategy that worked resoundingly well in the context it was employed in. Attempting to run sleeper agents (for lack of a better term) as candidates for an opposing party or flip someone shortly after an election would not be good as a broad scheme but it could be an effective strategy for targeted cases. We shouldn't be surprised if we see something similar attempted in elections of state legislatures or house representatives.

I don't think I'm giving voters credit by assuming that the virulent dislike of Trump outside of his base combined with Republicans having to hold the albatross of ending Roe (and the rest of the anti-woke nonsense generally) is going to push swing voters to Democrats and away from protest votes in 2024. To boot I think you're giving the Kennedy name too much of a premium, it could peel away (much?) older voters but they tend to lean Republican anyways and I don't see too many people middle-aged and younger rating the Kennedy name very highly as reasons to vote for someone. I will admit that I do not know many folks who are over 50 and am basing this mostly on my own social circles, but I see the Kennedy name as less of a draw for swing voters lukewarm on Biden than something like running to his left on labor.

[Chilloutman]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Is that your nickname to your friends?

tbh I don't remember how they selected our nick names - probably because I am quite tall individual as you can see on the shot. My IRL friends call me J, on Jay

Edited August 25, 2023 by Chilloutman

[Gromnir]

3 hours ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

It's a limited example now, but it's a strategy that worked resoundingly well in the context it was employed in.

yeah, it worked in the singular and highly limited scenario described. am not doubting somebody will try again, and is not as if this is the first time such a thing has happened in history neither. more than a few o' those individuals who flipped were doing so 'cause o' mercenary reasons. politicians first job is to get reelected and in part 'cause o' how scientific and analytical is gerrymandering these days, politicians may find their constituencies literal altered over night. however, as part o' a larger schem or plan, cotham is very much an exception. republicans did encourage tricia to run as a democrat, but am suspecting kp cherry picks from the story if he failed to notice the following: "republican leaders cultivated her before she ran and, seeing her growing estrangement, seized a chance to coax her across party lines." so, come up with all the factors which made possible and then replicate in a predictable fashion.

as part o' a broader scheme, monumental paradigm shifts such as dobbs is the exception as 'posed to the rule... and again, in spite o' some folks needing to double-down, am gonna observe Gromnir pointed out that overturn roe was something neither the leadership o' democrats or republicans actual wanted, and particular on the national level, dobbs has been terrible for republicans. each time a republican candidate is asked if they would support extreme six-week bans, the ordinary response is a pivot. the kansas referendum on abortion should be illustrative as it failed 60:40. trump garnered 56% o' the kansas vote in 2020. on abortion, republicans is being forced to double-down on a loser issue which is why in north carolina they went an extreme route trying to find a fifth columnist who would advocate for bodily integrity. 

again, in part 'cause o' how gerrymandering works nowadays, you will always have a few candidates trying to play both sides o' the political divide. self preservation. the thing is, particular in 2023 as political rhetoric has become more extreme, is much more difficult for a candidate to successful sell themselves as a believable advocate o' the other guy's platform. so, to make work you need a political paradigm shift, a fundamental altering o' constituency, a level o' animosity 'tween a politician and their current  party and a candidate who don't mind being compared to fredo corleone for the rest o' their life. am not shocked you is serious thinking cotham represents a new and insidious republican scheme on scale, but such don't appear credible.

is also weird how the same people who deride politicians for their incompetence will simultaneous ascribe to them ingenious sooper villain plans.  am personal dismissive o' conspiratorial thinking, but am s'posing we see the allure for a certain kinda person. 

as for name recognition...

*snort*

name recognition impact is not singular and exceptional. the impact o' name recognition has been observed and measured many times. for gawd's sake, trump had zero political experience when he started his pre 2016 run for President. armed with a bunch o' catchphrases and his b/c-list celebrity, trump managed to win his party nomination in part 'cause every time an establishment gop candidate dropped outta the race, trump picked up the largest % o' those political orphans. even today trump makes no attempt to hide the fact his business (political, real estate, or hawking steaks,) is 'bout promoting his brand. 

https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2017/07/star-power-in-politics

Using data from Japan spanning from 1962 to 2013, Reeves found that when celebrities ran for seats in the upper house in national legislative elections (which have high levels of intraparty competition), they won more than half the time. But in elections for the same office run at the local (prefectural) level, which are held under different electoral rules involving fewer candidates and greater competition between parties, celebrities won less than a third of the time. When surveyed, Japanese voters overwhelmingly reject celebrities in the abstract, so the data, Reeves said, suggest “a disconnect between what voters say they want and what they end up doing in the voting booth.” Electoral rules that lead to large numbers of candidates from a single party, Reeves argued, create the conditions that favor the famous—thus “leading to outcomes that are at odds with voters’ own stated preferences.”

check studies for political wins for dead people or the spouses o' recent dead candidates. kennedy is one o' the most recognized names in politics. one thing we all shoulda learned in the last few years is that there is thousands o' no-name bloggers who is just a loony and conspiratorial as is rfk jr. so, what sets kennedy apart?

impact o' the kennedy name is not quite the age thing to which some millennials predictable offer a reflexive hand wave when dismissing.  the fact young people is unaware o' jfk save for fact he were an President and a democrat icon helps rfk jr 'cause democrats had different values in the 60s compared to today.  jfk rhetoric on military spending and immigration would shock the conscience o' 2023 progressives and even lindsey graham would hesitate to support such extremes. unfortunate, young people is just as much suckers for celebrity (more so) than is old people. is more than a few democrats who don't know sh!te about rfk jr but they know they don't like biden. if you don't like trump or biden, then you might be tempted to vote anybody else, and studies show name recognition is a big deal in such situations. 

there is also a significant % o' democrats who is just as loony as republicans in terms o' conspiracy silliness. conspiracy is not a middle-aged, white, republican disease. kennedy is gonna get votes 'cause o' his name and also 'cause many democrats think the government is not trustworthy, hiding from us the truth about covid and uap.

so, tween name recognition and the fringe element o' the democrat party, could rfk jr shave off a few thousand votes who woulda' otherwise voted biden in a battleground state? seems far more likely than a wave o' cothams.

HA! Good Fun!

 

[Gromnir]

flip side o' kp hand-wringing over possible fifth columnist legislators

Wisconsin Supreme Court flips liberal, creating a ‘seismic shift’

americans is so polarized that there is a few issues which result in disproportionate voter participation. crime fears benefits conservatives even in democrat strongholds. converse, abortion and trump is losing propositions for republicans even in otherwise red states.

for the vast majority o' elected officials, their primary job is to seek reelection. overt betrayal by an elected legislator, judge, school board member or even dog catcher is gonna decrease the odds o' reelection for the individual who overt lied to voters. even with targeted gerrymandering which may fundamental alter the demographics o' a legislator's voters, nobody wants to be associated with fredo corleone. so unless the aspiring sith lord legislator is planning on a fox news gig, the kinda thing indulged by cotham in north carolina will be exceptional 'cause is ordinarily self defeating for anybody with future political ambitions.

however, am thinking republicans and democrats need to wise up a bit and actual pay attention to their voters as posed to reading tweets from their most vocal supporters. in state after state, republicans is getting hammered on abortion and their unsubstantiated claims o' voter fraud. yeah, as improbable as it sounds, most republicans believe the 2020 election were stolen, but most independents do not share such beliefs and a significant % o' republicans are tired o' the voter fraud silliness. "most republicans" ain't anywhere near enough to carry tight races. 

same goes for progressives who is dismissive o' complaints about rampant crime or fears o' raising taxes. in the history o' forever, raising taxes and being soft on crime has been overwhelming loser positions. tell us 2023 fears about crime is largely manufactured hokum is so preaching to the choir. the reality is it doesn't matter if the fear is unjustified if voters remain afraid. 

for the past couple decades, republicans have been extreme successful at developing a unifying narrative for their base. is doubtful most boardies listen to conservative radio or watch fox news, but if you fix cars, repair roofs or drive trucks for a living, chances are you are the target audience o' the no-longer-so-alt right messaging which has become increasingly extreme in a relative short span o' time. to most educated liberals, rush's feminazi schtick seemed gross but silly in 2000. not funny anymore. not even fringe. republican messaging has been extreme effective such that we no longer have a shared reality about many basic facts in this country. covid?

democrats has been far more splintered in their messaging. however, thanks to dobbs and trump, democrats got issues which unify them, bolster their resolve and even peel off a few conservative voters. is doubtful democrats are able to genuine unify to the degree you see with working class whites and republicans, and the last thing we wanna see is both parties going all in on campaigns o' fear and grievance, but am thinking democrats have a real opportunity to have a shared vision which they is able to communicate to voters. 

wisconsin's supreme court flip should be textbook. the change weren't managed with a fifth columnist or some other sleight o' hand. wisconsin republicans, like republicans in indiana, texas and elsewhere, went all-in on making access to abortion and voting more difficult. in response, democrats made republicans pay for their overt stoopid. 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited August 28, 2023 by Gromnir

[Bartimaeus]

Wisconsin is widely considered to be the most gerrymandered state in the country, and the state could feasibly (though nowhere near certainly) switch from Republican super-majorities* in the state assembly and senate to a Democrat trifecta if the maps are fairly remade by the Wisconsin Supreme Court. A lot of positive change could happen in a very short amount of time a la Minnesota if that comes to past - but the very least, the maps being remade and a Democrat staying in the governorship should make certain Republicans never even sniff super-majorities in Wisconsin ever again. It is what I am most excited for (as opposed to anxious or dreading) with regards to the 2024 election season, assuming it happens by then, and I pray that it does.

*Actual overriding super-majority in the state senate at 22/33 seats, almost overriding super-majority in the state assembly at 64/99.

Edited August 28, 2023 by Bartimaeus

[Keyrock]

I am getting no shortage of humor from the Republicans' attempts to co-opt Rich Men North of Richmond as an anti-establishment democrat pro-republican anthem. The first half of that is correct, the second, certainly not. It's not an anti-democrat or an anti-republican song, it's an anti-establishment song. The titular rich men north of Richmond refers to the establishment elites in DC, that means the establishment democrats AND the establishment republicans being deaf and blind to the plight of common men and women. People are fed up with the establishment, that means both sides of the aisle. It's the reason Trump was able to take over the republican party and got elected in 2016 (and will likely get elected next year). Trump's campaign was and is built on "I will fight for the working class men and women that DC has been ignoring". The idea of Donald ****ing Trump being a man of the people and fighting for the little guy is the height of comedy. In fact, one of the most notable policies he enacted as president was a tax break for the wealthiest of the wealthy, not exactly a populist move. That said, it's a smart and popular stance to run on, even if it is a crock of $#!+.

Edited September 1, 2023 by Keyrock

[Lexx]

Still funny how in the middle of the song he then starts to blame fat people on welfare for the countries problems.

[uuuhhii]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

Still funny how in the middle of the song he then starts to blame fat people on welfare for the countries problems.

hate both the rich and the poor was never difficult

[Gorth]

If the US is so polarised, I wonder if you can generate electricity by rubbing two Americans against each other?

[Keyrock]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

If the US is so polarised, I wonder if you can generate electricity by rubbing two Americans against each other?

That's what alcohol is for.

 

[Hurlshort]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66712589

Well, the Proud Boys leadership is all locked up now. Of course if Trump wins, I'm guessing they all get pardoned. I'm having a hard time drumming up sympathy for these guys that basically market and profit off hatred and lies. They sold a narrative on overthrowing the government in the name of patriotism, and then are surprised when they get sentence for treason.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

12 minutes ago, Hurlshort said:

Of course if Trump wins, I'm guessing they all get pardoned.

I'm thinking that it's equally likely they get hung out to dry.

[Gorth]

JuiceMedia takes on Canada and it's war against its indigenous people...

 

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Hurlshort said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66712589

Well, the Proud Boys leadership is all locked up now. Of course if Trump wins, I'm guessing they all get pardoned. I'm having a hard time drumming up sympathy for these guys that basically market and profit off hatred and lies. They sold a narrative on overthrowing the government in the name of patriotism, and then are surprised when they get sentence for treason.

 

something something something doj weaponization something. political witch hunt something something hillary something something something. something something establishment democrats something obama.  antifa, blm something something something. banana republic something something.

as little as fifteen years past, could you imagine republican leadership public embracing organizations such as the proud boys and oath keepers? is so not normal to see mainstream gop excusing extreme groups who embrace intolerance just so long as they is fighting the right enemies: establishment democrats, socialists, immigrants, etc. 

don't expect reasonable or rational. is ridiculous ez to dupe those who have surrendered to hopelessness. give 'em any excuse to be outraged. channel jungian archetypes? perhaps voodoo? dunno. regardless, is not difficult to string together the right dog whistles and triggers to reach the alt-right/trump base collective unconscious. 

however, trump only cares 'bout trump. IF he were to be reelected, which seems highly unlikely seeing as how in 2023 he is not even as popular as he were when he lost the 2020 Presidential contest, what motivation would he have for pardoning proud boys and oath keepers? maybe the proud boyz has a much larger real estate portfolio than am aware, but am not seeing the juice for the squeeze. trump can't be elected President more than twice, so if he somehow won in 2024, what would be the point o' further appeasing a bunch o' working class white nationalists?

HA! Good Fun!

Edited September 6, 2023 by Gromnir

[Gorth]

40 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

so if he somehow won in 2024, what would be the point o' further appeasing a bunch o' working class white nationalists?

Pave the path for Trump Jr, so the office remains in family hands? Has happened before in politics

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Gorth said:

Pave the path for Trump Jr, so the office remains in family hands? Has happened before in politics

has it? this specific situation is a bit unusual and am not sure how much pardons would benefit ivanka or trump jr even ignoring how trump has apparently thrown his progeny under the proverbial bus in recent depositions, which will no doubt make thanksgiving dinner at casa de trump especial fun this year.  the ambiguous possibility o' pardons may be enough to convince 2024 white nationalist voters to keep faith with trump (as if they have another candidate choice,) without further antagonizing educated republican women and independents. actual pardons helps with white nationalists and ultra-alt right voters, but who else?

a schrödinger pardon solidifies the trump base and gives other conservative leaning voters a chance to pretend as if trump wouldn't actual grant pardons. 

am just not seeing a real upside for actual pardons. even for the future political prospects o' trump spawn, actual pardons would seem to be an overall net loser.

edit: am reminded o' just how improbable is trump. donald beat hillary to become President but both hillary and trump were historical unpopular and trump has lost the popular vote 2x. trump even managed to lose the electoral and popular vote to joe freaking biden. the electoral college process o' selecting the President were not intended to be democratic, so is hardly a surprise when a President isn't elected popular. even so, it took a long causal chain o' unlikely to transform a process intended to make a populist President nigh implausible so that what we got today is "the most disliked politician in all of America," running as a populist candidate and having a not 0% chance o' winning... again.

HA! Good Fun!

Edited September 6, 2023 by Gromnir

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Gorth said:

JuiceMedia takes on Canada and it's war against its indigenous people...

 

Hilarious video as usual, she looks cute in the army fatigues 

I do always find many of the points hard to take seriously but I understand the general message 

[BruceVC]

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/financial-advisor-views/following-the-yellow-bric-road/

Interesting read about the reality of BRICS and the well known differences between its member countries. Its hard to believe how you can achieve any meaningful global change in the world when you have such different political and ideological views from its members 

[BruceVC]

https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/kzn-man-forced-to-skin-a-dead-dog-as-punishment-by-his-chinese-employer-20230905 

An absolutely outrageous and appalling  story in SA ,  a Chinese supermarket owner forced  a staff member to cut and skin a dog that the Chinese owner was going to have for dinner. He did this as a form of punishment because the employee reported him to our labor department for numerous labor infractions

Unions are very angry and they taking legal action against the supermarket owner. This development highlights the continuous problems with Chinese investment in Africa, they dont respect or understand our local laws or culture. I doubt the supermarket owner realized how offensive this " punishment " was but its no excuse 

[Chilloutman]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/kzn-man-forced-to-skin-a-dead-dog-as-punishment-by-his-chinese-employer-20230905 

An absolutely outrageous and appalling  story in SA ,  a Chinese supermarket owner forced  a staff member to cut and skin a dog that the Chinese owner was going to have for dinner. He did this as a form of punishment because the employee reported him to our labor department for numerous labor infractions

Unions are very angry and they taking legal action against the supermarket owner. This development highlights the continuous problems with Chinese investment in Africa, they dont respect or understand our local laws or culture. I doubt the supermarket owner realized how offensive this " punishment " was but its no excuse 

more eyebrow rising is fact that someone obeyed him. Telling something like this my boss to me, the labor department would be last thing he would be worrying about

[Malcador]

Sometimes getting fired is the right choice.

[uuuhhii]

https://www.damemagazine.com/2023/08/14/the-gop-has-a-master-plan-to-criminalize-being-trans/

 

comic book and saturday morning cartoon villain look much less ridiculous now

[Keyrock]

Osho succinctly and VERY slowly explains Murican politics: