Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."

[213374U]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Interesting that it's Newsweek. I think it was also Newsweek that reported how nicely Russia took care to inflict as little damage as possible in Ukraine. Do correct me if I'm wrong. That article has been quoted here, too, and described as a "truth bomb".

Yes, it was a Newsweek piece, and similarly quoted a US official speaking on condition of anonymity. I suppose the main difference between that and this one is that the former wasn't officially disavowed by the intelligence community:

After this story was published, the National Security Council sent Newsweek a statement attributable to NSC Spokesperson Adrienne Watson: "Reports that any such intelligence community assessments exist or that they have been briefed to the president are not true."

Again, whether Putin is going to kick the bucket isn't the most critical question -- at some point he will and these predictions will finally come true. It's what will happen when he does. There's remarkably little reading material on that.

Edited June 3, 2022 by Gorth

[Malcador]

9 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Interesting that it's Newsweek. I think it was also Newsweek that reported how nicely Russia took care to inflict as little damage as possible in Ukraine. Do correct me if I'm wrong. That article has been quoted here, too, and described as a "truth bomb".

This, btw, is not a comment on the article you just linked. Very hard to say how trustworthy that one is.

Newsweek has had some really dubious articles of late.  But at least they've not claimed he's dead like the Mirror

[kanisatha]

11 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Interesting that it's Newsweek. I think it was also Newsweek that reported how nicely Russia took care to inflict as little damage as possible in Ukraine. Do correct me if I'm wrong. That article has been quoted here, too, and described as a "truth bomb".

This, btw, is not a comment on the article you just linked. Very hard to say how trustworthy that one is.

Yeah, I'm not convinced either, though from my personal observations of Putin's images lately it sure looks to me like he is gravely ill. Plus, whereas in the past our intel agencies were among the few government agencies I had faith and trust in, now there are no government agencies to whom I extend the benefit of the doubt when it comes to trust.

But, to say it again, my philosophy is to bring info here that I find interesting, and leave it to people on this forum to decide for themselves whether it is interesting, useful, or believable to them.

[pmp10]

Putin plans to out-attrition the west.
He might not be wrong about western commitment, eastern Europe is suffering almost as much inflation as Russia.

Edited June 3, 2022 by pmp10

[Darkpriest]

In regards to the 'optimism' of OPEC decision

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-soars-markets-realize-what-opec-did

 

As what comes with the resolve, it will be tested around autumn, as both food and energy will spike, and governments will be having issues with high debt and heavy cost of that debt due to inflation/rates spiral. 

ECB still tries to stave off, but even they cannot ignore 8% inflation in Germany. Once ECB will start QT or rates increases all hell will break loose, should it be coupled with high costs of oil, gas and food. 

[Darkpriest]

More on weapon transfers oversight issues

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/02/congress-pentagon-ukraine-aid-oversight-00036463

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html

 

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/06/02/interpol-illicit-arms-ukraine/

Edited June 3, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Lexx]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Putin plans to out-attrition the west.
He might not be wrong about western commitment, eastern Europe is suffering almost as much inflation as Russia.

I guess the problem is that 1. he doesn't care about his own population that much, and 2. many are poor anyways, and it won't change much. In the west, however, that looks a bit different. Even small disruptions will make us cry.

[kanisatha]

Another excellent piece on Sweden and Finland plugging into NATO's security structure:

https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/06/02/how-sweden-and-finland-could-reshape-natos-northern-security/

[BruceVC]

12 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Putin plans to out-attrition the west.
He might not be wrong about western commitment, eastern Europe is suffering almost as much inflation as Russia.

Its interesting the main objective in this article for  Putin is not to win the war of attrition economically but to starve the people of Africa and ME so that increases immigration to the EU which puts economic pressure on the EU

To quote from the article 

 

" In three vehemently anti-Western interviews given to Russian newspapers since the invasion, the previously publicity-shy Patrushev has declared that Europe is on the brink of “a deep economic and political crisis” with rising inflation and falling living standards already impacting the mood of Europeans, and that a fresh migrant crisis would create new security threats"

"This posture suggests that the Kremlin believes it can outlast the West in weathering the impact of economic sanctions. Putin has little choice but to continue the war in hopes the Ukraine grain blockade will “lead to instability in the Middle East and provoke a new flood of refugees,” said Sergei Guriev, former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development "

"The world is gradually falling into an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or in the Middle East will turn out to be on the brink of starvation — because of the West. In order to survive, they will flee to Europe. I’m not sure Europe will survive the crisis,” Patrushev told Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta in one of the interviews "

Just when I think Putin cant do anything more reprehensible he comes up with something new

So now the Ruskies are weaponizing starvation and famine. Black\brown people really dont have many  friends in Russia 

[Gorth]

6 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

So now the Ruskies are weaponizing starvation and famine. Black\brown people really dont have many  friends in Russia 

Is Russian wheat export targeted by sanctions (asking because I don't know)? Just curious because you make it sound like Ukraine is the worlds only wheat producer. From Al Jazeera feb 2022 (pre-war info)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive

Russia, not Ukraine was the biggest supplier of wheat for a number of African nations... whereas Ukraine was a major supplier for countries like Israel, South Korea, Spain, Philippines etc.

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Is Russian wheat export targeted by sanctions (asking because I don't know)? Just curious because you make it sound like Ukraine is the worlds only wheat producer. From Al Jazeera feb 2022 (pre-war info)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive

Russia, not Ukraine was the biggest supplier of wheat for a number of African nations... whereas Ukraine was a major supplier for countries like Israel, South Korea, Spain, Philippines etc.

I dont know about that I just know about the reality of many third world countries being dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia is weaponizing starvation by its naval blockade 

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/25/time-running-out-for-ukraine-grain-exports-from-besieged-seaports

Not that it should matter which countries end of suffering from starvation due to Putins War and the naval blockade but its not just about wheat. Its about oil and other exports that come from Ukraine that will impact third world countries and increase hardships. But yes Africa is deeply  impacted, its not just the countries in your list

https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/africa-union-chairman-macky-sall-says-hell-visit-russia-and-ukraine-to-lobby-for-an/bzd4syd

But can you think of anything more truly deplorable than weaponizing mass immigration due to starvation in order to end Western sanctions?

 

[Mamoulian War]

On 6/2/2022 at 9:34 AM, BruceVC said:

Thats good to know, now that she has gone back to Ukraine where in Ukraine is she  going back to and will she be finishing her education in Ukraine? What is she studying ?

AFAIK, she is already in Kyiv with her schoolmates, she studies acting.

On 6/2/2022 at 4:02 PM, majestic said:

Some (all?) of them have English subtitles.

Thanks for bringing that to my attention, I ahve not noticed it, as I am pretty fluent in German language, I have not even searched for the subtitles

On 6/2/2022 at 5:25 PM, Darkpriest said:

@BruceVC

For you 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-producers-stay-one-step-ahead-of-sanctions-11654076614?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

Despite that, Russia is already producing 1 million barrels per day less, according to Deutsche Welle, which already cost them ****load of money. And here is also an analysis, why the prices of Oil will not stay very high for long, because in the end, this is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia. Therefore, there is a prediction, contradictory to yours, that as soon as OPEC reaps enough profits, they will up their production, to get it into the more bearable price area, just to avoid, what happened in 70's.

15 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Putin plans to out-attrition the west.
He might not be wrong about western commitment, eastern Europe is suffering almost as much inflation as Russia.

Nevertheless, the Eastern Europe, with the exception of Hungary are the biggest contributors of military and humanitarian help to Ukraine. Simply because we know, we will end up in even bigger **** than now, if we will have Russia as our neighbour again...

 

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

Is Russian wheat export targeted by sanctions (asking because I don't know)? Just curious because you make it sound like Ukraine is the worlds only wheat producer. From Al Jazeera feb 2022 (pre-war info)

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-ukraine-and-the-global-wheat-supply-interactive

Russia, not Ukraine was the biggest supplier of wheat for a number of African nations... whereas Ukraine was a major supplier for countries like Israel, South Korea, Spain, Philippines etc.

AFAIK, wheat export is not sanctioned. Only fertilizers.

[Mamoulian War]

Yesterdays ISW report on the war in Ukraine was pretty terrible for Russian soldiers. Absolute lack of medical supplies are causing extreme issues for treatment of soldiers in the field. Most of the medical professionals who were sent to Izyum area, are already dead, and the new recruits do not have enough knowledge to perform, what is needed. To much amputations, and the new recruits are not willing to go to Ukraine when they are up for their rotation, which pretty much stops the rotations required for the refreshment of their fighting capabilities and a lot of Russian soldiers are on the bring of physical and psychical exhaustion, because they were not rotated out of the battlefield as required. Pro Russian military bloggers are blaming that again on stupidly incompetent Russian Officers...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3

So it looks like the Russian plan to out-attrition the West has pretty big flaws right at the most important places...

 

 

 

EDIT: Oh also, the Ukrainian Army did took a lot of area back inside and around Severodonetsk, and obliterated a lot of Russian units. They managed to get the most important roads in the north east of the city, and put a heavy blow to Russian GLOCs. IMHO, this is not something which will probably last long, but currently it is very heavy blow to Russian logistics and they had to retreat. Mostly thanks to the fact, that Lysychanks over the river is on the high ground, so Ukraine has extreme advantage for their artillery units. And they are using it to the maximum extent.

Also, Ukraine has slow but steady progress around Kherson - Mykolaiv - Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts borders, and repelled every Russian attempt to retake the positions, which they lost since May 28th.

EDIT2: UA aviation also conducted a lot of airstrikes against Russian positions around these areas (

)

Edited June 4, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Darkpriest]

@Mamoulian War

Why do you think this? 

-----

why the prices of Oil will not stay very high for long, because in the end, this is not in the interest of Saudi Arabia

----

It could only be true i case in US the oil production would ramp up, with fracking etc. but due to political reasons it won't happen in US. The oil sector in US is demonized. 

India amd China will be getting Oil from Russia at a discount, China will even go for Russian Coal as they seem to pivot to reinstating coal due to energy demand. 

Sauds will have EU and US in a position in which they will be "willing" (no choice to donotherwise) to pay elevated prices for some time, surely this and most likely a large part of next year. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-sees-oil-rising-136-month-depending-what-china-does-trader-bets-millions-crude

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Gorth]

More history in the making this way...