Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

[Malcador]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/12/did-russia-really-use-chemical-weapons-mariupol-ukraine-expert-remain-sceptical

Guess can calm down for now. 

 

 

[Katphood]

12 hours ago, Lexx said:

It's not as if nobody ever critizised what the USA did in the middle east. People pretend now that we were always ok with it and never said anything.

I am really sorry. That pic should have included Libya and Serbia as well. 

@Sarex no offense

[Sarex]

15 minutes ago, Katphood said:

no offense

None taken.

[majestic]

11 minutes ago, Sarex said:

None taken.

Funny how that works, huh, I was the one complaining about something and you end up being the one apologized to all the time, even if it is for different  reasons now...

Edited April 12, 2022 by majestic

[213374U]

3 hours ago, Elerond said:

Technically all Russian soldiers in Ukraine are terrorists/murderers/other form criminals who aren't protected by any laws governing soldiers in war.

EDIT: But because most of world considers it as war they would be treated like they are soldiers in international courts and get protection from most acts that are done because they were commanded to do what they have done

Right. And that may well be Ukraine's stance on the matter if they end up in a position to try Russian soldiers.

However the case of a British national fighting Russians is a bit different. There are no Russian POWs held by the UK either so fat chance of an exchange. Considering the position of the UK regarding sanctions (and comments regarding trying Russians in the ICC), there's little incentive for Russia to accommodate them so the guy may end up getting a regular criminal conviction and a long sentence.

[kanisatha]

4 hours ago, Elerond said:

Technically all Russian soldiers in Ukraine are terrorists/murderers/other form criminals who aren't protected by any laws governing soldiers in war.

EDIT: But because most of world considers it as war they would be treated like they are soldiers in international courts and get protection from most acts that are done because they were commanded to do what they have done

Not so in the ICC, where the principle that one was ordered to do something does not count as a defense has been established.

[Chilloutman]

UK does not want German president visit in Kyjev... well go figure:

[Azdeus]

This is awesome if it's true, and that twitter thread is gold

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Technically, they are not mercenaries, as they have officially signed joining papers of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. They needed to be approved by Ukrainian Military to join their ranks, to officially fight for them and get the official support by the Ukrainian Army. They are foreigners, but still part of the Ukrainian army. Of course there are also some foreigners which are there on their own. But it's much lower number, from what I understood.

Bit of a grey area whether he qualifies as a mercenary, assuming he's being paid. I actually looked up the definition under the (an additional protocol of) Geneva Convention to check*. The default position is POW, but he can be classified as a mercenary/ illegal combatant/ tried for something else** after an investigation. I have no idea if Russia is actually a signatory to that additional protocol though.

*the sticking point being whether he's paid disproportionately. Consider the situation if any Syrians Russia used were in formal Russian units. They couldn't be mercenaries, as their pay would be significantly less than Russian soldiers... I'd be willing to bet they'd still be called mercenaries though.

**he publicly called for soldiers in Mariupol to remove their uniforms, which is... a bit dodgy from a legal standpoint, even if it were only to help them escape as that puts civilians at risk.

5 hours ago, 213374U said:

It's like people feel obligated to defend hypocrisy just because the hypocrite happens to be repeating a talking point that resonates with them currently.

I'm really not sure people know how bad that makes them look either. It's like there might be a connection between not getting the support for sanctions etc that they want and countries that have had a taste of... unpleasantness delivered by the same countries now preaching at them about how very important it is to be nice.

There's also a lot of democratic... self importance at play. On one hand, I can go out and protest about Yemen, isn't that great? So much better than those other places. I'm doing my part, why I posted a devastating meme- not quite as devastating as a JDAM to a school bus, but one tries- to #StopMBS2022 just the other day.

OTOH, it certainly isn't my responsibility when the leaders I elect play zero attention to my protest, it achieves nothing and they continue blithely on as usual. I did my part, I objected, and can bask in the knowledge that nothing done by my country is my fault. I might even have voted for the other guys (who... do exactly the same thing when they get in office). Guess I'm also lucky that I come from an unimportant small country that can't really do much damage.

4 hours ago, Elerond said:

Technically all Russian soldiers in Ukraine are terrorists/murderers/other form criminals who aren't protected by any laws governing soldiers in war.

Technically, how many wars have actually been declared since 1949? To quote the great philosopher Scribe "not many, if any". Prisoners are still POWs so long as they qualify otherwise. Of course, being POWs doesn't insulate from legitimate legal avenues against crimes committed either, you have to be members of a western military to get that protection.

[Katphood]

 

 

XD

[pmp10]

1k Ukrainian Marines are said to have surrendered at Mariupol
Rumors have it that other units tried to break thru and join with Azov to mixed results.

[Mamoulian War]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

1k Ukrainian Marines are said to have surrendered at Mariupol
Rumors have it that other units tried to break thru and join with Azov to mixed results.

I would consider this still as a false info. It was presented mainly by Kadyrovs, and their authenticity is pretty dubious... From their TikToks, the count of their PoW has been counted to apporx 50. Also Ukrainian MoD claims, that this is no true. My own guess would be, it is more than 50 soldiers, because some of them definitely surrendered due to no ammunition, but 1000 is a blatant Russian lie, like most of their statements in the last 105 years

NextaTV report on this:

 

Speaking about the breakthrough operation, it looks like it was successful. Not sure how many other units have tried to join them, but few hundreds of them are allegedly now with Azov.

Google Translate of the tweet:
In Mariupol, a unit of the 36th Independent Marine Brigade - Rear Admiral Belinsky, managed to get out of the enemy's siege and unite with the Azov Regiment. Several hundred Marines managed to get out, including the wounded. UA Insider

[Mamoulian War]

14 hours ago, Azdeus said:

This is awesome if it's true, and that twitter thread is gold

As I see it, Poles had some kind of military training near the Ukrainian borders and during the lunch break, they decided to left the keys in the starters, considering being safe, but unfortunately, they did not get a memo, that on the other side of the border, the Ukrainian 1st Tractor division has an exercise as well, and probably some of their farmers just could not resist

[Guard Dog]

On 4/11/2022 at 5:51 PM, Gromnir said:

 

@Guard Dog is not a civil engineer, correct? even so, am suspecting he could at least speak to the difficulties o' undertaking the effort to rebuild roads in an area where such infrastructure were recent destroyed by significant flooding. am not pretending to be an expert in this area, so will defer to those with knowledge, but one assumes the army corps o' engineers (federal) is precise the folks who could tackle such a task. expect puerto ricans, the folks hit by successive hurricanes, to rebuild roads and communication infrastructure relative quick sounds like a bridge too far demand, but again, am genuine unsure what is required to undertake and complete such tasks. heck, am not even certain what is the appropriate prioritization o' tasks. is possible a bunch o' locals with wheel barrows, pickups and hand tools may manage the jobs? 

HA! Good Fun!

 

No sir, I'm an electronics engineer by trade and education. But I did get 5 years of experience in water management and ecology plus a little CE working for the mostly great state of TN. 

The first step will be getting electrical power restored to the eastern part of the country. Ukraine has 15 nuclear power plants. Six are in the hands of the Russians and three are damaged and inoperable according to AP. I doubt the Russians will leave the six they control in working condition. But even if they did the majority of the power infrastructure is destroyed in the eastern part of the country. Towers, substations, lines are largely destroyed.  Just as a comparison following Hurricane Maria 88% of Puerto Rico was without electrical power. The power generation capability was still mostly intact (with the notable exception of the Guajataca Dam) so it was lines, substations and towers that needed to be replaced. Restoration took a massive effort by FEMA, Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, the Army Corps of Engineers, numerous US and Mexican based power companies and Co-Ops and the State of Florida, Georgia, and other state governments. It took two years before power was restored. Ukraine is likely much worse off. 

Power is the cornerstone on which all other endeavors rests. The next is fresh water. Heavy munitions use and shattered buildings, vehicles, industrial infrastructure and storage will have contaminated the soil. It's spring now. Snows are melting and runoff is reaching the natural water sources and aquifers so the water will be contaminated if it isn't already. I'd imagine the water treatment plants in the east are heavily damaged if not destroyed. So even when electricity has been restored this challenge must be confronted. Right now without water treatment there is no sewage and wastewater management so that is going to contribute to the problem and lead to disease outbreak an other miseries like pests and parasites. 

It's been two months. The people in the war zone are running out of everything. So humanitarian aid is needed immediately and a hell of a lot of it. Think of the effort that went in to the Berlin Airlift and multiply that by 20. 

Then there is the long term costs. Because of the demand placed by explosive growth in China there is  world wide pressure on construction supplies like lumber and concrete.  This was something we had to deal with in my last job. Add to that COVID labor shortages and supply is lagging demand by almost a year as of February last year. 

After Hurricane Maria the population of Puerto Rico declined by almost 12%. A lot of people moved to the US and stayed. There is absolutely no way to know how many people have fled Ukraine, been killed or deported/kidnapped by the Russians, but it's likely going to be a lot. And even after the war is over more will die from exposure, lack of medical services, etc. That will mean fewer hands to do the work. It also means the Ukrainian economy will be recovering for years because, like most European nations, it has a transactional economy that required consumers. The longer this goes on the worse it will get because the refugees in other nations will begin building new lives where they are and be unwilling to return to a shattered country where their homes and lives are gone. 

Like you said the devastation that will be left behind once hostilities cease is incalculable. It will require a multinational effort, trillions of dollars worth of relief and literally decades to rebuild. And likely none of it happens as long as Russia is still Russia and sitting right next door undermining the whole thing. And there is very little the rest of the world can do about that.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Guard Dog

[Sarex]

19 minutes ago, Guard Dog said:

Like you said the devastation that will be left behind once hostilities cease is incalculable. It will require a multinational effort, trillions of dollars worth of relief and literally decades to rebuild. And likely none of it happens as long as Russia is still Russia and sitting right next door undermining the whole thing. And there is very little the rest of the world can do about that.

Even if Russia somehow lost this completely and there was a regime change in the country, who would invest trillions of dollars in to Ukraine?

For the rest you are spot on. In Serbia the chemical plants NATO hit were ecological disasters and there is a marked cancer spike in the populace surrounding those areas. I imagine that caused more health issues than depleted uranium bombs. It's going to be much the same if not worse in Ukraine...well no, it's going to be much worse in Ukraine.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Sarex

[Zoraptor]

37 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

I would consider this still as a false info. It was presented mainly by Kadyrovs, and their authenticity is pretty dubious... From their TikToks, the count of their PoW has been counted to apporx 50. Also Ukrainian MoD claims, that this is no true. My own guess would be, it is more than 50 soldiers, because some of them definitely surrendered due to no ammunition, but 1000 is a blatant Russian lie, like most of their statements in the last 105 years

1000 surrendering certainly isn't supported by anything independently verifiable. It's clear that a lot more than 50 have surrendered though. While the Ukrainian MoD may claim that the video of 250 Marines surrendering a week ago is fake it had had confirmation from other Ukrainian sources. They also claimed the footage of the Snake Island survivors was fake, and at least one of them literally got returned in a prisoner swap.

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Sarex said:

Even if Russia somehow lost this completely and there was a regime change in the country, who would invest trillions of dollars in to Ukraine?

For the rest you are spot on. In Serbia the chemical plants NATO hit were ecological disasters and there is a marked cancer spike in the populace surrounding those areas. I imagine that caused more health issues than depleted uranium bombs. It's going to be much the same if not worse in Ukraine...well no, it's going to be much worse in Ukraine.

Nah, once Putins War is over you underestimate the West and its allies commitment to Ukraine. The country will be rebuilt with funding from the wealthiest countries in the world, they not going leave Ukraine alone after the devastation inflicted by the warmongering of Putin

 I would be more worried about the future of Russia than Ukraine 

[Sarex]

7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Nah, once Putins War is over you underestimate the West and its allies commitment to Ukraine. The country will be rebuilt with funding from the wealthiest countries in the world, they not going leave Ukraine alone after the devastation inflicted by the warmongering of Putin

So why don't they take care of the Ukrainian refugees for a start?

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, Sarex said:

So why don't they take care of the Ukrainian refugees for a start?

They are, their are several million Ukrainian refugees already in Europe but you cant just absorb people instantly. These things take time and also most Ukrainian want to return to Ukraine. They dont want to be refugees permanently

The EU has done a lot considering the timeframes 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ukrainian_refugee_crisis

[Malcador]

33 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Nah, once Putins War is over you underestimate the West and its allies commitment to Ukraine. The country will be rebuilt with funding from the wealthiest countries in the world, they not going leave Ukraine alone after the devastation inflicted by the warmongering of Putin

 I would be more worried about the future of Russia than Ukraine 

That's a bit optimistic, even for you.

 

[Elerond]

6 hours ago, Sarex said:

Even if Russia somehow lost this completely and there was a regime change in the country, who would invest trillions of dollars in to Ukraine?

USA has those hundreds of billions of Russian money they froze to give Ukraine

[Malcador]

Hopefully no corruption in Ukraine, going forward.

[majestic]

26 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Hopefully no corruption in Ukraine, going forward.

I'd say when pigs can fly, but sadly pigs actually can fly since 2011, so thanks Duke Nukem Forever, I guess.

[Sarex]

56 minutes ago, Elerond said:

USA has those hundreds of billions of Russian money they froze to give Ukraine

Ok, so we are still a couple of trillion short, but I'm sure the EU is good for that.

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

They are, their are several million Ukrainian refugees already in Europe but you cant just absorb people instantly. These things take time and also most Ukrainian want to return to Ukraine. They dont want to be refugees permanently

The EU has done a lot considering the timeframes 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ukrainian_refugee_crisis

Poland is really advance in that regard, offering employment for single mothers in form of prostitution.

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

So why don't they take care of the Ukrainian refugees for a start?

Well, some are trying to "take care" of some...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/13/stop-matching-lone-female-ukraine-refugees-with-single-men-uk-told