Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

[Zoraptor]

It's "selected Russian banks", officially. Which is kind of weaselly wording, and almost certainly a cut out so all the objectors can have the PR cake while keeping eating Russian gas too, and especially for Cyprus whose main bank iirc is Russian owned (and probably wished for a similar response from the EU and NATO a few decades ago, when they got invaded in similar circumstances).

Probably also tailored so that the Russians don't automatically switch systems, and don't have the motivation to trash the system on the way out.

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

Video of a hit helicopter going down. Very probably Russian.

https://t.me/Novyna/13088

Yeah, very probably. The Ukrainians do have a decent number of mi-24 in theory, but it's unclear if any of them were even genuinely operational. Not as definite as the ditched Kamov, but pretty close to it.

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

Yeah, I know, virtually everything is fake news at this point. However, I posted it more to highlight the human element of both sides here - never a bad idea to remind yourself that even the invading force of an army usually has a pretty large makeup of what are effectively very scared children.

I think there is a danger of going too far in the other direction, of seeing everything as "fake." Some of these claims, such as the claim the Russians are struggling on the battlefield and behind their own schedule, that they still don't have air dominance over Ukraine, and that the Ukrainians are putting up a surprisingly strong resistance, have come from multiple sources including defense sources who are very credible to me.

[kanisatha]

59 minutes ago, majestic said:

Looks like Germany is reneging on their refusal to ban Russia from SWIFT. Still needs to pass the 27 member vote unanimously, but... signs point to it being back on the table. The cynic in me thinks it's time to invest in the Yuan. 

Giant spoiler:

  Reveal hidden contents

Some German and Swiss banks already adopted SPFS as an alternative and can switch any time and China is more than capable of acting as an intermediary through CIPS. If you think a SWIFT ban is going to stop anyone of note from trading with Russia, think again...

 

Yup, I've seen multiple stories on this, that the SWIFT cutoff, with some caveats, is coming. Also, even Germany has now approved the transfer of lethal military aid (along with non-lethal supplies and humanitarian aid) alongside similar declarations from several NATO states. They are sending 500 Stingers among other things. The US is also looking into how we can provide lethal aid. And amazingly, even Orban in Hungary has declared that he will fully support everything the other NATO and EU states agree on.

[kanisatha]

An excellent article, mostly echoing my own analysis and conclusions:

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-vladimir-putin-miscalculation/

[rjshae]

Germany to send weapons directly to Ukraine

Quote

Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has announced that Germany will deliver weapons directly to Ukraine.

He said Germany would be sending 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles.

Berlin has also dropped some restrictions on German-made weapons being sent to conflict zones, meaning that third countries will be able to send more arms to Ukraine.

Mr Scholz said the Russian invasion marked a turning point.

The move reverses Germany's long-standing policy of banning weapon exports to conflict zones.

Given Russia's apparent preparations to resist sanctions, I suspect that direct arms shipments to the Ukrainians may prove a more effective measure.

[Mamoulian War]

Apparently Anonymous got their hands on 200GB of data of communication between Belarus weapon manufacturer and Russia. A big chunk of the data are allegedly people paid by the Russia to spread misinformation in other countries. If this is true, there will be a lot of "fun" going around in the next few days in central and eastern europe, and a lot of salty people trying to run away from Slovakia. Being an agent of enemy is punishable up to life sentence in Slovakia...

 

 

The tweet is in Czech language.

[Bartimaeus]

41 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

I think there is a danger of going too far in the other direction, of seeing everything as "fake." Some of these claims, such as the claim the Russians are struggling on the battlefield and behind their own schedule, that they still don't have air dominance over Ukraine, and that the Ukrainians are putting up a surprisingly strong resistance, have come from multiple sources including defense sources who are very credible to me.

I don't really mean to promote the idea that "everything is fake" per se, but rather anything from either sides without clear and outstanding evidence should be very skeptically considered. Between literally faked footage, footage and photos from other conflicts, outrageous official claims and literal transparent attempts at propaganda... Being skeptical should be automatic here.

Does anyone know anything about the "Patrushev" military doctrine Russia reportedly adopted in 2018? Here's what Wikipedia has to say about it:

Quote

Patrushev, "nuclear blackmail":

The essence of the Patrushev doctrine boils down to “de-escalation through nuclear escalation”. Russia would cause a direct military conflict against NATO in any region outside Russian territory, for example in the Baltic States, avoiding the use of weapons of mass destruction. At first, Russia would succeed, using an element of surprise, but later a turning point in the war would be achieved to the benefit of NATO. At that time, Russia would threaten to use nuclear weapons, and if the threats do not succeed, Russia would launch a limited nuclear strike on targets in Europe. If the West decide to make a limited nuclear retaliatory strike, then Russia would make a larger nuclear strike on targets in Europe and USA. Kremlin strategists believe that the West would flinch first, giving up to “strong-willed Russia”, and would agree to end the war on Putin’s terms.

If Putin is actually planning on making good on this doctrine, then we're almost certainly headed straight towards nuclear annihilation sometime soon (not necessarily from this Ukraine conflict, but...if Putin decides to push it even further with e.g. Finland...). It could just be a public game of chicken and therefore simply posturing (or the doctrine could've been mistranslated entirely), but it sure doesn't sound good in light of this war.

[Mamoulian War]

Allegedly one of the top Chechen warlords have been killed in action near Hostomel...
 

 

[kanisatha]

17 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Allegedly one of the top Chechen warlords have been killed in action near Hostomel...
 

 

I think Russia using Kadyrov's thugs is itself a very good indicator that things are not going well with their own forces. It is entirely possible that the Russian conscripts, and yes they are conscripts, are suffering low morale, from having had to sit in makeshift camps waiting for this invasion for several months to now fighting Ukrainians who they were told/promised would not fight back or would join the Russians against Zelenskiy. These conscripts were expecting to be greeted by Ukrainians as liberators, but instead they are fighting them tooth and nail, including even civilians taking up arms against them. So the Chechens are being sent in with the hope they will be more tenacious in the fight.

Reports are quoting Pentagon sources as saying the Russians have already suffered up to 3,000 dead, and lots of armored vehicles, helicopters and aircraft lost. And that this is why now US and European governments are becoming enthusiastic about finding creative ways to really help the Ukrainians, because they believe we have a real chance at delivering a bloody nose to Putin.

Edited February 27, 2022 by kanisatha

[Mamoulian War]

And this is interesting as well. Cyberwarfare at it finest allegedly Russian domestic stations have been hacked and are airing what is really happening at Ukraine I'll be glad if anyone can find trustworthy news in medias, which can confirm or deny this information. I found so far only some tweets.

 

[Darkpriest]

I'm still baffled by Putin's decision, which seemed to be very unlikely for his usual fairly calculated mind. 

I've talked with some more informed Ukrainians, and while officially no-one will ever confirm this, if Putins Russia just had a show of force and entered Donbas and Lukhansk, they were ready to give up on those provinces and the port city in the south. 

With Russians invading Ukraine and attacking Kiev, this is nations war at the moment and there is no chance Putin is going to achieve his goals without packing a lot of Russian bodies back home. (which by comparison might make Afghanistan numbers look like a footnote) 

The terrain might be a more flat terrain, but there are woodlands, swamps, etc as well as a lot of various spread out smaller towns with various buildings to use for ambushes. Big City fight will be a nightmare for Russian troops. These are not some low height building, low density towns of middle east... 

It's also a good thing that men there are not yet of the "soyboy latte" mentality and character. National pride helps too. 

 

 

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, majestic said:

Looks like Germany is reneging on their refusal to ban Russia from SWIFT. Still needs to pass the 27 member vote unanimously, but... signs point to it being back on the table. The cynic in me thinks it's time to invest in the Yuan. 

Giant spoiler:

  Hide contents

Some German and Swiss banks already adopted SPFS as an alternative and can switch any time and China is more than capable of acting as an intermediary through CIPS. If you think a SWIFT ban is going to stop anyone of note from trading with Russia, think again...

 

https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/spfs-russia-s-alternative-to-swift.html/ ( this was written before the Ukraine invasion so you can ignore his warnings about " an invasion " ) and this article is " pro-Russian " and basically  supports SPFS 

SWIFT is by far the most widely used and integrated financial payment system in the world and the alternatives like SPFS is really only used internally within Russia so its not gong to make much difference. The whole point of SWIFT is predominantly the intra-country trade and financial payment benefits

Real alternatives to SWIFT would have to used by the majority of banks globally and thats  not the reality for SPFS or any other similar system

So freezing out Russia from SWIFT would have  unprecedented economic consequences for Russia unlike anything the Ruskies have ever experienced but it would also directly harm the economies of any country trading with Russia in any way which has to be considered before this type of financial sanction is implemented 

So its understandable if  Germany is reluctant, I would also be reluctant if I was Germany. I think we need to wait a while before the SWIFT  " punishment" is implemented which exactly what is happening

One more thing, what makes SWIFT " punishment " more easier to implement is if the US is behind it. Because what will happen is the US  creates its own set of sanctions that says " you mustnt trade with country xx " which  translates to US companies cannot legally  do business with these countries. This in turn creates real choices for companies outside the US who have to decide  " do we take the risk of trading with company x in  country y and face possible US financial sanctions " which very few global companies would be prepared to do and thats also understandable 

But this is the big stick approach to making SWIFT freezing really be effective and its a long way off because it takes time. I dont think you need SWIFT banning yet, once the invasion is over the current sanctions should make the point ?

 

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

I'm still baffled by Putin's decision, which seemed to be very unlikely for his usual fairly calculated mind. 

I've talked with some more informed Ukrainians, and while officially no-one will ever confirm this, if Putins Russia just had a show of force and entered Donbas and Lukhansk, they were ready to give up on those provinces and the port city in the south. 

With Russians invading Ukraine and attacking Kiev, this is nations war at the moment and there is no chance Putin is going to achieve his goals without packing a lot of Russian bodies back home. (which by comparison might make Afghanistan numbers look like a footnote) 

The terrain might be a more flat terrain, but there are woodlands, swamps, etc as well as a lot of various spread out smaller towns with various buildings to use for ambushes. Big City fight will be a nightmare for Russian troops. These are not some low height building, low density towns of middle east... 

It's also a good thing that men there are not yet of the "soyboy latte" mentality and character. National pride helps too. 

 

 

Yes but this has been raised, Putin is not thinking rationally and this Ukrainian invasion was miscalculated 

I have seen from several sources that since Covid lockdowns Putin has isolated himself from most of his advisors because he has this irrational obsession with " not getting the virus " and that could be one of the reasons for this entire badly thought out invasion

Thats why Macron sat opposite him at the end of that huge table

https://www.firstpost.com/world/emmanuel-macron-sits-across-vladimir-putin-at-long-table-after-snubbing-russian-covid-year-10368021.html

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And this is interesting as well. Cyberwarfare at it finest allegedly Russian domestic stations have been hacked and are airing what is really happening at Ukraine I'll be glad if anyone can find trustworthy news in medias, which can confirm or deny this information. I found so far only some tweets.

 

Im pleasantly surprised, Anonymous is involved in hacking that I support ...I never thought I would see that day

[HoonDing]

 

[Gorth]

Those BUK air defence systems seems better at taking down civilian targets than military ones... (j/k)

Way too much misinformation and propaganda on both sides to trust anything on the internet at the moment. After a few years of fact checking, some of the messages may stand the test of time.

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Those BUK air defence systems seems better at taking down civilian targets than military ones... (j/k)

Way too much misinformation and propaganda on both sides to trust anything on the internet at the moment. After a few years of fact checking, some of the messages may stand the test of time.

But you can trust most international news agencies with journalists  on the ground in Ukraine, for example Gorthfuscious you can trust the stories that highlight the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine right ?

[BruceVC]

Okay I tried, in the interests of " hearing both sides " I watched RT for 10 minutes but the gaslighting and misinformation made me nauseous and I had stop watching or I would have sick 

But I tried so you can give me that at least 

[BruceVC]

Something else which I want to recognize is the thousands of Russians involved in anti-War and and anti-Putin protests in Russia and other countries

And to protest in Russia is really dangerous because Putin doesnt really tolerate citizens expressing their displeasure with government 

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/russia-detains-over-3000-anti-war-protestors-demonstrating-against-invasion-of-ukraine-articleshow.html

[pmp10]

Seems Kharkiv is about to fall if it didn't already. 
With Lukaszenka about to commit Belarussian troops this is not looking good for Ukraine. 

[Lexx]

6 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

It's also a good thing that men there are not yet of the "soyboy latte" mentality and character.

And here you've lost me.

[ComradeYellow]

Ukrainian defense line from Gostomel to Kiev has been broken through by Russian Forces -- Russian tanks are rolling into Kiev from Gostomel

I expect this will all be over within days

[Malcador]

40 minutes ago, Lexx said:

And here you've lost me.

Was wondering what was taking him so long for not mentioning some culture war nonsense. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-establishing-foreign-legion-volunteers-abroad-president-2022-02-27

Seems like too late for this, hopefully no under prepared morons go for it

[BruceVC]

24 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Was wondering what was taking him so long for not mentioning some culture war nonsense. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-establishing-foreign-legion-volunteers-abroad-president-2022-02-27

Seems like too late for this, hopefully no under prepared morons go for it

Why would you be surprised when a country is invaded and their is a  wide diaspora of its citizens that some people would not return to fight for their country? Especially  considering the history of Ukraine and the fact the current president was Democratically elected through a transparent election ? 

But yes I agree, if people are going to fight the Russian invasion they need to understand its not some first world country where your rights are guaranteed....we talking about real war here 

[Zoraptor]

I really don't get the number of people acting as if Kiev not falling by day 2 was unexpected. If I'd been told that there would be significant fighting in Kiev after two days, two days ago, I'd have thought I was being trolled. It's a city of 3.4mn people 100 presumably well defended km from the closest border, not a small town a few km away. The Ukrainian army isn't massively outnumbered, and isn't completely hopeless and even if it were presumably its best and most motivated troops will be defending the capital. I'll be frank, while I can see the logic in some of the more pro Ukrainian interpretations the 'behind schedule' stuff reeks of trying to turn a bad defeat into a Winter War moment, ie sure they lost, but they were heroic and lost far less badly than expected. It's not like Putin doesn't have experience with urban combat situations either, given the 2nd Chechen War, Aleppo etc.

The biggest problem for believing the Ukrainian version can be encapsulated by the news from Hostomel: successful counterattacks and recaptures announced multiple times with hundreds and hundreds of Russian casualties, but no evidence provided. Instead the video evidence has Russian VDV there both days, and not looking very concerned the 2nd. Indeed, yesterday the Ukrainians were counterattacking there again, despite supposedly having recaptured it the previous night. Places Ukraine supposedly holds are being counterattacked by them, places well behind lines they supposedly hold are then being successfully defended and you get them heroically blowing up a bridge in the face of a Russian force that was meant to have been completely destroyed in Vasylkiv.

Meanwhile the units from Crimea are past Tokmak and in the outskirts of Berdyansk, half way to Donetsk and 60km from Mariupol, and going faster than US went in Iraq in 2003. At that rate they could be be at Dnipro' let alone Zaporizhie or Mariupol in two days. Yeah, I've seen lots of people saying that that's just 'lulling them into a false sense of security' and they're all going to get cut off and destroyed by a Ukrainian counterattack. Well, they'd better do it soon, because those troops in Mariupol and facing the DPR/ LPR are going to get very antsy if Russian troops turn up behind them.

1 hour ago, pmp10 said:

Seems Kharkiv is about to fall if it didn't already.

I'd believe that when I see it- it's a city of ~1.5 million people and you can't just waltz in. There's fighting in the city centre, but then the fighting in Kiev got very close to the centre