A Fifth of Coronavirus

[BruceVC]

34 minutes ago, rjshae said:

~226 years. It is an evolving science though, so each step forward requires testing and validation.

 

6 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

They were doing smallpox inoculations a lot longer ago than 226 years, that was just when Jenner started using cowpox instead of variolation.

I always thought Louis Pasteur created the first vaccine. But after reading these posts I did some research and you right, the concept of vaccines have been around for a lot longer than that. I learnt something new 

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/timeline/all

 

[Gorth]

Looks like things are completely falling apart in Sydney and NSW these days. Over a 100 daily new cases now. No surprise of course, if look at the NSW government and their taking ineptitude to new attitudes. No surprise it's the same political party as the federal party (who completely ****ed up the vaccination programmes)

 

Nobody can get any clear messages from the NSW as the message changes by the hour and sometime being completely contradictory... yay The Liberal Party, the scourge of Australia (mostly kept alive by the fossil fuel industry and Murdoch Media).

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/nsw-records-105-covid-19-cases/100302152

It is now also threatening to spill over into Melbourne and VIC, as people have been traveling from Sydney to Melbourne while being infected (employees of a removal company doing some rather dodgy stuff, not wanting to share where they went and not wearing masks, despite coming from a "red zone" mask mandatory area)... and because the federal government has no clue what they are doing, Australia is now somewhere down in the third world tier when it comes to vaccinations. The Liberal Party has offered federal support to the government of NSW of course, unlike the other two states (QLD and VIC) who had to do lockdown and got zero aid (those states being governed by the opposition party).

 

Edit: Background... every now and then, the virus escapes quarantine, because people are only required to quarantine for 2 weeks. The federal government has been unable to provide actual quarantine facilities for people entering Australia (you would think Christmas Island was an obvious candidate now the immigrant processing has been moved offshore). So, the new "Delta" variant escaped hotel quarantine and the NSW government in their infinite wisdom decided that a snap lockdown to nip it in the bud, is only something the peasants in QLD and VIC has to do, we are gods gift of governments and therefore don't need no filthy snap lockdowns. The result? Ever escalating infection numbers and a government that makes a chicken coop appear like a well functioning organization by comparison.

Glossary:

NSW - New South Wales (where Sydney and The Opera House is)

VIC - Victoria (where Melbourne and Australian Open is)

QLD - Queensland (where Brisbane and The Great Barrier Reef is)

ALP - The Australian Liberal Party (Gods gift to Fox News/Sky News... basically a bunch of morons doing what they are told by their masters)

Labor is the main opposition party, but their lies have been way too unconvincing in the last few national elections, hence why the ALP is in power (their head liar/the PM has a background in marketing, his BS is very convincing for people who actually watch Sky News... which would be the same breed of people who actually believe anything coming out of Fox News)

[BruceVC]

35 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Looks like things are completely falling apart in Sydney and NSW these days. Over a 100 daily new cases now. No surprise of course, if look at the NSW government and their taking ineptitude to new attitudes. No surprise it's the same political party as the federal party (who completely ****ed up the vaccination programmes)

 

Nobody can get any clear messages from the NSW as the message changes by the hour and sometime being completely contradictory... yay The Liberal Party, the scourge of Australia (mostly kept alive by the fossil fuel industry and Murdoch Media).

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/nsw-records-105-covid-19-cases/100302152

It is now also threatening to spill over into Melbourne and VIC, as people have been traveling from Sydney to Melbourne while being infected (employees of a removal company doing some rather dodgy stuff, not wanting to share where they went and not wearing masks, despite coming from a "red zone" mask mandatory area)... and because the federal government has no clue what they are doing, Australia is now somewhere down in the third world tier when it comes to vaccinations. The Liberal Party has offered federal support to the government of NSW of course, unlike the other two states (QLD and VIC) who had to do lockdown and got zero aid (those states being governed by the opposition party).

 

Edit: Background... every now and then, the virus escapes quarantine, because people are only required to quarantine for 2 weeks. The federal government has been unable to provide actual quarantine facilities for people entering Australia (you would think Christmas Island was an obvious candidate now the immigrant processing has been moved offshore). So, the new "Delta" variant escaped hotel quarantine and the NSW government in their infinite wisdom decided that a snap lockdown to nip it in the bud, is only something the peasants in QLD and VIC has to do, we are gods gift governments and therefore don't need no filthy snap lockdowns. The result? Ever escalating infection numbers and a government that makes a chicken coop appear like a well functioning organization by comparison.

Glossary:

NSW - New South Wales (where Sydney and The Opera House is)

VIC - Victoria (where Melbourne and Australian Open is)

QLD - Queensland (where Brisbane and The Great Barrier Reef is)

ALP - The Australian Liberal Party (Gods gift to Fox News/Sky News... basically a bunch of morons doing what their are told by their masters)

Labor is the main opposition party, but their lies have been way too unconvincing in the last few national elections, hence why the ALP is in power (their head liar/the PM has a background in marketing, his BS is very convincing for people who actually watch Sky News... which would be the same breed of people who actually believe anything coming out of Fox News)

Im sorry to hear this Gorthfuscious, in SA we have about 20k + news cases a day so if its any consolation you not really at the definition of a virus crisis....yet 

We have discussed over the last 12  months the success and failures of the Australian governments response to the virus spreading within your borders.

Your view was generally that your government has been draconian in its efforts and you didnt seem to support measure like quarantine hotels  or the lockdown measures and people being told "  you cant travel to province x "

It doesnt seem like you have that opinion anymore considering  suggestions using places like Christmas Island for quarantine centers which is an excellent idea considering how the virus is spreading in Oz?

 

Edited July 18, 2021 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

9 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Im sorry to hear this Gorthfuscious, in SA we have about 20k + news cases a day so if its any consolation you not really at the definition of a virus crisis....yet 

We have discussed over the last 12  months the success and failures of the Australian governments response to the virus spreading within your borders.

Your view was generally that your government has been draconian in its efforts and you didnt seem to support measure like quarantine hotels  or the lockdown measures and people being told "  you cant travel to province x "

It doesnt seem like you have that opinion anymore considering  suggestions using places like Christmas Island for quarantine centers which is an excellent idea considering how the virus is spreading in Oz

 

Yes. I think it was draconian. Doesn't mean it wasn't necessary. The result was the 'de facto' eradication of the virus. What happens now is unnecessary, which makes the whole thing frustrating. Brisbane had two snap lockdowns, 5 days each, the last year. Big deal. Melbourne had a few too. But then one, just one, state government decides nah, we don't want to do that. Nothing's gonna happen. Nnap lockdowns is not wanted by the local businesses. Well, guess what, those businesses are going to see a LOT less business for a long time to come. Of course, the problems sort of starts at the top with no proper way of handling travelers arriving in Australia in a safe manner.

 

Edit: Snap lockdowns in Brisbane was taken in a good spirit, turning into a fashion contest, who can come up with the most colourful and decorative masks etc.

Edit2: Despite having registered for vaccinations almost 2 months ago now, no word whatsoever of any vaccine availability.

[BruceVC]

15 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Yes. I think it was draconian. Doesn't mean it wasn't necessary. The result was the 'de facto' eradication of the virus. What happens now is unnecessary, which makes the whole thing frustrating. Brisbane had two snap lockdowns, 5 days each, the last year. Big deal. Melbourne had a few too. But then one, just one, state government decides nah, we don't want to do that. Nothing's gonna happen. Nnap lockdowns is not wanted by the local businesses. Well, guess what, those businesses are going to see a LOT less business for a long time to come. Of course, the problems sort of starts at the top with no proper way of handling travelers arriving in Australia in a safe manner.

 

Edit: Snap lockdowns in Brisbane was taken in a good spirit, turning into a fashion contest, who can come up with the most colourful and decorative masks etc.

Edit2: Despite having registered for vaccinations almost 2 months ago now, no word whatsoever of any vaccine availability.

When you say snap lockdowns only lasting 5 days that is indeed nonsensical and doesnt make any sense around how the virus spreads. Because you can be  exposed to the virus and you will go through an incubation period for up to 10 days and then only show symptoms and spread the virus . So a 5 days lockdown is meaningless if I am understanding you correctly ?

And also lockdowns shouldn't be about shutting down all businesses because both lives and livelihoods matter and you can achieve both in a logical lockdown. For example when the virus is spreading or you in a wave you shutdown businesses where you cannot control or enforce mask wearing so you close  down clubs and large outdoor gatherings and sometimes religious gatherings. But you can keep restaurants open because restaurant owners can enforce restrictions and keep numbers low. Its not ideal but this type of approach offers a reasonable balance 

[Gorth]

59 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

When you say snap lockdowns only lasting 5 days that is indeed nonsensical and doesnt make any sense around how the virus spreads. Because you can be  exposed to the virus and you will go through an incubation period for up to 10 days and then only show symptoms and spread the virus . So a 5 days lockdown is meaningless if I am understanding you correctly ?

And also lockdowns shouldn't be about shutting down all businesses because both lives and livelihoods matter and you can achieve both in a logical lockdown. For example when the virus is spreading or you in a wave you shutdown businesses where you cannot control or enforce mask wearing so you close  down clubs and large outdoor gatherings and sometimes religious gatherings. But you can keep restaurants open because restaurant owners can enforce restrictions and keep numbers low. Its not ideal but this type of approach offers a reasonable balance 

The snap lockdowns is to give contact tracers a chance to identify all the people who have been in contact with somebody who has been in contact with somebody etc. to get them to self isolate (and tested), which people have done. It has worked the last 12 months... The lockdown itself is only to stop the spread in its tracks until all possible infected people have been identified and isolated. The lockdown itself doesn't stop the spread as such.

[BruceVC]

16 minutes ago, Gorth said:

The snap lockdowns is to give contact tracers a chance to identify all the people who have been in contact with somebody who has been in contact with somebody etc. to get them to self isolate (and tested), which people have done. It has worked the last 12 months... The lockdown itself is only to stop the spread in its tracks until all possible infected people have been identified and isolated. The lockdown itself doesn't stop the spread as such.

Got it, then the 5 day snap lockdown makes sense...its not a normal lockdown 

Is your contact tracing effective then, it sounds like it is?  Contact tracing has failed in the majority of countries due to the resources, citizen acceptance   and real effort it requires from government 

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Gorth said:

Looks like things are completely falling apart in Sydney and NSW these days. Over a 100 daily new cases now.

Could be a lot worse, could be poor old Fiji which went from zero to most infected country per capita on the planet, in little more than a month. Frank Bananarama* didn't want to do a lockdown either with far better reason, but I bet he wishes he had now anyway.

*Bainamarama, but when you stage coups you're lucky if the worst you get is being your name replaced by a mediocre 80s girl group.

Quote

Despite having registered for vaccinations almost 2 months ago now, no word whatsoever of any vaccine availability.

Despite NZ's roll out being about as slow as Australia's I've got my second dose tomorrow. Technically legit since I'm South Auckland and (technically) in health care so they ended up putting me through as a walk in when I brought my parents in last month but we're really supposed to wait for an email/ txt invite instead. We could roll out vaccines a lot quicker if needed, since we bought a bunch of J&J as well as Novovax (not ready) and AZ but the strategy is all Pfizer. Ironically, AZ and Pfizer seem to have pretty much identical efficacies against delta though.

Got some sympathy for Australia's situation with vaccines, since there's a lot of domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity going begging due to Astra Zeneca hesitancy/ its clotting issue. A million odd doses a week for the past ~6 months would have had things very well along.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Zoraptor

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Got it, then the 5 day snap lockdown makes sense...its not a normal lockdown 

Is your contact tracing effective then, it sounds like it is?  Contact tracing has failed in the majority of countries due to the resources, citizen acceptance   and real effort it requires from government 

They are not immune to screw ups if that's what you mean. Like contacting all the people who been near a large grocery store... just to find out a few days later that there are two grocery stores from the same franchise nearby and the "other" one was the correct one (so nobody got tracked for days there). But apart from some such obvious human errors, it does seem to do its job. People get identified, isolated, tested and if necessary  isolated for a longer time (if testing positive).

@Zoraptoryeah, of course, it could have been a lot worse. The main frustration is really over wasted opportunities and incompetence. The state PM's and state governments (especially the Victorian, Queensland and Western Australian) did all the hard work and turned the initial outbreak into a success story. But complacency (and a lack of national leadership) is threatening it at the moment.

[rjshae]

Florida now has one in five COVID-19 cases, and a law prohibiting vaccine documentation. Enjoy that Caribbean cruise old timers; I hear it's sick.

[BruceVC]

31 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Florida now has one in five COVID-19 cases, and a law prohibiting vaccine documentation. Enjoy that Caribbean cruise old timers; I hear it's sick.

It amazed me how badly DeSantis has handled the virus around basic virus best practice but he still remains very popular. I understand his support with his stanch anti-socialist views and the large Cuban American , and other Latino groups,  and Republican base in Florida but I am still surprised around his popularity 

Did  you see the latest, official state sponsored "anti-Fauci " mechandise ....and its selling 

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-gov-ron-desantis-selling-222004119.html

[Gromnir]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

It amazed me how badly DeSantis has handled the virus around basic virus best practice but he still remains very popular.

desantis is popular 'cause he is resisting the authoritarianism of police state democrats. fauci is a wolf in sheep's clothing and just the most visible tool o' the lock down/shut down tribe o' liberals who want to squeeze southerners to financial death in the name o' keeping people safe from an overstated pandemic which is really just old people dying o' pneumonia and heart failure while the cdc cooks the numbers. etc.

sweary warning:

the no compromise americans and trump turned a pandemic into a freaking political issue where americans who see the linked video is almost equal divided 'bout who is the bad guy. 

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Gromnir

[rjshae]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

It amazed me how badly DeSantis has handled the virus around basic virus best practice but he still remains very popular. I understand his support with his stanch anti-socialist views and the large Cuban American , and other Latino groups,  and Republican base in Florida but I am still surprised around his popularity 

Did  you see the latest, official state sponsored "anti-Fauci " mechandise ....and its selling 

https://news.yahoo.com/florida-gov-ron-desantis-selling-222004119.html

He and Gov. Abbott seem to be the current standard bearers for the Trump "doctrine", such as it is. I think DeSantis has ambitions of higher office, so he'll keep catering to the Trump base. That includes egregious (and intentional) mis-management of quarantine measures, disparaging Dr. Fauci, and embracing anti-science. I think it would save a lot of lives if Trump were to vanish from the scene right now, but that doesn't seem likely.

[BruceVC]

13 hours ago, rjshae said:

He and Gov. Abbott seem to be the current standard bearers for the Trump "doctrine", such as it is. I think DeSantis has ambitions of higher office, so he'll keep catering to the Trump base. That includes egregious (and intentional) mis-management of quarantine measures, disparaging Dr. Fauci, and embracing anti-science. I think it would save a lot of lives if Trump were to vanish from the scene right now, but that doesn't seem likely.

I was watching an interesting debate about DeSantis and the commentators were raising how he is seen as a  rising star in the Republican party and how he could have real  ambitions to  become the next  Republican presidential  candidate 

So the midterms will give us a good indication of the support the current Republican party  has  and then we have to consider someone like DeSantis as president of the US based on trajectory of the GOP winning the midterms?

I would much rather see DeSantis as the Republican candidate than Trump again....much, much, much rather 

[Gfted1]

Ivermectin COVID-19 Scandal Shows How Vulnerable Science Is to Fraud. 

[Amentep]

4 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

Ivermectin COVID-19 Scandal Shows How Vulnerable Science Is to Fraud. 

It is a serious problem.  I think volume (due the requirement to publish for many researchers) and speed of delivery of said volume (overwhelming people who take it on face value that some other gatekeeper would have caught something somewhere) have increasingly made the peer review system a unreliable as if no one critically reads and checks the findings being submitted, its not really being peer reviewed anymore, but will be treated as if it is.

[rjshae]

4 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

Ivermectin COVID-19 Scandal Shows How Vulnerable Science Is to Fraud. 

Particularly when the results are time-sensitive, such as medical treatments during a pandemic. This really should have been caught during peer review.

[Amentep]

That's just it - nobody bothered to actually peer review it, if I understood the article.  It got published without anyone putting a critical look into what it claimed or its methodology.

[Sarex]

The podcast I linked before is all about Ivermectin. The two scientist on it talk about how there were live trials done with it on doctors on the front lines and the group that was on it had 0 infected while the group that wasn't on it had around 50% infection rate. They also mention that in countries that it was used in (Mexico, India, Zimbabwe...) there was a marked impact on the numbers.

Their main point is that Ivermectin is a tried and true medicine that has well know side effect (of which there are none that are serious) and there is no downside to giving it to a patient that is not responding to any other treatment.

Edited July 20, 2021 by Sarex

[BruceVC]

49 minutes ago, Sarex said:

The podcast I linked before is all about Ivermectin. The two scientist on it talk about how there were live trials done with it on doctors on the front lines and the group that was on it had 0 infected while the group that wasn't on it had around 50% infection rate. They also mention that in countries that it was used in (Mexico, India, Zimbabwe...) there was a marked impact on the numbers.

Their main point is that Ivermectin is a tried and true medicine that has well know side effect (of which there are none that are serious) and there is no downside to giving it to a patient that is not responding to any other treatment.

All the countries you mentioned( Mexico, India and Zimbabwe ) are countries that have mishandled the pandemic badly and the virus is running rampant so I dont see that as an endorsement in any way 

[Gorth]

Isn’t that a bit like saying AstraZeneca can’t be any good, because Sweden botched its pandemic response big time?

[Amentep]

1 hour ago, Sarex said:

The podcast I linked before is all about Ivermectin. The two scientist on it talk about how there were live trials done with it on doctors on the front lines and the group that was on it had 0 infected while the group that wasn't on it had around 50% infection rate. They also mention that in countries that it was used in (Mexico, India, Zimbabwe...) there was a marked impact on the numbers.

Their main point is that Ivermectin is a tried and true medicine that has well know side effect (of which there are none that are serious) and there is no downside to giving it to a patient that is not responding to any other treatment.

Just because the study was botched doesn't mean the drug isn't useful - it just  means the study isn't.

You can't really draw a conclusion about the drug efficacy.

[Sarex]

6 minutes ago, Amentep said:

Just because the study was botched doesn't mean the drug isn't useful - it just  means the study isn't.

You can't really draw a conclusion about the drug efficacy.

I was not discounting that the study was botched, just saying that there are proponents of the drug in the scientific world. The more interesting thing is what they talked about and that is that any discussion about the drug is being actively censored.

[BruceVC]

37 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Isn’t that a bit like saying AstraZeneca can’t be any good, because Sweden botched its pandemic response big time?

Misinformation and unscientific  "cures " for Corona are common in several countries and they sometimes believed as an alternative to vaccines which is the only way to really stop the pandemic or reduce virus the spread. So the problem with drugs like  Ivermectin is not they dont have some therapeutic qualities  but they not an alternative to vaccines

In Africa and SA this was a real problem in the beginning of the pandemic where small groups of people who peddle conspiracy theories like "Western\Capitalist\Colonialism"  as being " anti-African" also spread misinformation about vaccines and their efficacy. This led to real deaths, we dont hear this anymore in Africa  now that the continent has been ravaged by the true nature of the virus everyone just wants vaccines 

For example read this link where the president of Madagascar claimed that a herbal tonic could cure Corona .....he said this and it sadly had some initial support from a small number of people in SA and some African  countries. This led to more deaths and the virus spreading 

https://time.com/5840148/coronavirus-cure-covid-organic-madagascar/

As you know AstraZeneca has always been a vaccine that is effective so its not the same as confusing people with drugs like Ivermectin and how they can cure or prevent the virus 

But yes you are right that several countries in the EU overreacted to the AstraZeneca vaccine and its efficacy 

Edited July 20, 2021 by BruceVC

[Elerond]

23 hours ago, Sarex said:

I was not discounting that the study was botched, just saying that there are proponents of the drug in the scientific world. The more interesting thing is what they talked about and that is that any discussion about the drug is being actively censored.

For some reason drug's manufacture speaks against the drug

Earlier this year ivermectin manufacturer Merck said there was “no scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against Covid-19” and “no meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with Covid-19.”

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finnish_firm_earns_us_patent_for_covid_drug_containing_ivermectin_and_hydroxychloroquine/11946611

Although Finnish drug manufacturer Therapeutica Borealis says that in combination with other drugs and targeted correctly it will prevent infections. Although they have not yet proven that in clinical trials.