The Political Thread - Burlamaqui edition

[smjjames]

If the DUP already has what it wanted, then how come they voted against the Brexit deal?

[Zoraptor]

Voting down the Brexit deal was what they wanted, so they now (already) have that.

 

The 'backstop' provision for Irish/ Northern Irish integration was absolute anathema to the DUP as (fairly extreme) unionists, as soon as the agreement was voted down the backstop went with it so they had what they want. They never made the issue one of Confidence and neither did May so were never going to withdraw overall Support for the government over it, especially since it's been obvious it wouldn't pass since before christmas.

[smjjames]

From what I've read though, a no-deal Brexit crash through is going to end up with exactly what they didn't want for the border anyway. Not the Ireland/North Ireland integration neccesarily, just that it'll end up with a hard border, or something. Or maybe it was something that May didn't want? Either way, the Irish border seems to be something that doesn't have a solution that everybody is happy with

[Zoraptor]

Yeah more or less, but as Unionists they simply could not support the deal offered, even if a hard exit and hard border was the alternative. Their raison d'être is preservation of the union, they c/would as much vote for May's deal despite the poor alternative as Lincoln c/would vote (well, support/ sponsor I guess) for secession for the Confederacy despite the poor alternative.

 

What exactly they wanted instead, well, so far as I am aware they've been a bit equivocal on it since Brexit was unpopular in NI in general and even a lot of unionists like the open borders with Ireland and to preserve the Good Friday agreement which a hard Brexit technically would break. They were just in an impossible position with no good outcomes for them.

[smjjames]

The US Civil War doesn't really work as an analogy because in Brexit, the alternative isn't war.

 

It's really an impossible position for everybody, May especially. May wanted to keep the border as is and not rock the Good Friday boat, the EU said 'No, you can't have it both ways with leaving the EU while having the porous border at the same time.' (while somehow implying that they'd take NI away from the UK? dunno), the DUP wanted a hard border, and I think Republic of Ireland also wanted to keep the same porous border. Not that ROI had a vote here anyway.

[Gorth]

I believe the last thing anyone wants is a rekindling of the old IRA/UK conflict. Most people know or have heard of the conflict, but most people outside Europe doesn't know how bloody the conflict in the 70's and 80's really was (3000 dead and 49000 wounded). Westminster will/would go to great lengths to try to preserve the current level of happiness in the region.

[Zoraptor]

The US Civil War doesn't really work as an analogy because in Brexit, the alternative isn't war.

 

Both were a matter of core beliefs though, and picking a bad option over what they considered a worse one.

 

It's really an impossible position for everybody, May especially.

 

Yeah, this mess is almost completely not May's fault. Worst mistake she made apart from going for the leadership in the first place perhaps was the fairly small one- so far as Brexit was concerned- of calling a snap election, everything else was her trying to make an omelette with the pack of utterly smashed eggs she inherited and people complaining about the inevitable eggshell in it or wanting fried or poached eggs even if the only thing possible was an omelette.

 

David Cameron is mostly to blame, along with the EU not taking the concerns of a lot of Britons seriously and offering the minimum they thought they could get away with for a narrow remain vote. History should view Cameron as one of the worst PMs of all time, but it will probably be May who gets that label.

 

while somehow implying that they'd take NI away from the UK? dunno

 

 

It doesn't look like much of a threat from the outside especially since Ireland/ NI has been under the same EU customs control for ~20 years now; but for a unionist being softly annexed to Ireland is absolutely a consideration as it is for people in Gibraltar as well with respect to Spain. Border control is one of the crucial parts of being a country and with the agreement you could literally have a situation where going from Northern Ireland to Dublin, different countries, has no controls at all; but go from NI to London- the same country- and you'd have to go through customs and passport control.

 

Not that ROI had a vote here anyway.

 

 

No, but their position and being backed by the EU made in impossible for May to win. But, realistically, no backstop would just reduce the margin she lost by instead of making it winnable.

[smjjames]

I believe the last thing anyone wants is a rekindling of the old IRA/UK conflict. Most people know or have heard of the conflict, but most people outside Europe doesn't know how bloody the conflict in the 70's and 80's really was (3000 dead and 49000 wounded). Westminster will/would go to great lengths to try to preserve the current level of happiness in the region.

 

The way this is going, theres going to be people who are upset over it regardless, but it doesn't seem like it would rise to the violence of the Trroubles (as I usually hear that period described) since the target isn't each other or the British government. Well, okay, the British government is responsible for screwing it up, but that's a different thing to be angry about than decades/centuries of oppression.

[213374U]

I believe the last thing anyone wants is a rekindling of the old IRA/UK conflict. Most people know or have heard of the conflict, but most people outside Europe doesn't know how bloody the conflict in the 70's and 80's really was (3000 dead and 49000 wounded). Westminster will/would go to great lengths to try to preserve the current level of happiness in the region.

 

And in a hilariously tone-deaf exercise of social media'ing...

[Guard Dog]

Well isn't this embarrassing?  https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/cnn-legal-analyst-areva-martin-accuses-david-webb-of-white-privilege-before-learning-hes-black

 

[Raithe]

Yesterday, in the UK Parliment...

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Raithe

[Malcador]

Shame the reduction of the UK to just England and Wales is unlikely.

[Gfted1]

Another week, another no confidence vote. Do the MP's get paid per no confidence vote or something? Imagine what they could accomplish if they spent as much time parlimenting as they did no confidence voting.

[Katphood]

 

Ouch!

[Malcador]

Another week, another no confidence vote. Do the MP's get paid per no confidence vote or something? Imagine what they could accomplish if they spent as much time parlimenting as they did no confidence voting.

 

Well, this is parliamenting.  They say when this one fails they will try more, I guess they can try to seduce some Tories or DUP members to defect and cause the government to collapse that way ? 

 

Does look like they do have other things in the air  https://services.parliament.uk/Bills/?group=date&order=desc

[Gfted1]

Oh? Is this more of "working as intended"?

 

Every single day "the West" struggles to get their heads out of their rectums (rectum? damn near killed 'em) to accomplish anything, large or small. I eagerly await our Chinese overlords who will smack the crapola out of anyone that cant get it together.

[smjjames]

Pence says ISIS has been defeated, hours after an attack that killed US troops in Syria. Looks like we have our Mission Accomplished moment.....

 

(yes, I know Trump has claimed victory, but the visuals and cognitive dissonance of this one seals it)

Edited January 16, 2019 by smjjames

[Elerond]

 

 

Theresa May didn't even get 1/3 support for her Brexit Agreement, losing by 230 votes. That's more than 100 of her own MPs voting against her.

 

Bit better than predicted, but not in way that it matters. Tomorrow's no confident vote and next weeks new plan are bit more interesting, but if something miraculous don't happen to unite the parliament then UK will leave EU without any additional agreement.

 

 

It was considerably worse for May than predicted as the worst analysis was around a -200 loss, and the worst defeat for a government in modern history. Not really 'better' for those who wanted to stay in Europe either as the Tories who crossed the floor are euroskeptics and won't vote for a second referendum or to stay which is what the remainers want. No confidence vote won't go through either as turkeys won't vote for an early christmas; the DUP already has what it wanted (no back door Irish union, as they saw it) as do the euroskeptics (what they saw as a 'soft' EU membership rather than withdrawal) so they'll vote for the government and that gives a majority. They'd need remain Tories to cross the floor which is highly unlikely as it would almost certainly end their careers.

 

Our news yesterday morning said that only 198 mps had said that they will vote for the agreement and end of day 202 mps voted for it, so bit better than what was predicted (at least compared to what was prediction yesterday morning based on what mps had said)

[Gfted1]

My kingdom for a worldwide EMP.

[Elerond]

The US Civil War doesn't really work as an analogy because in Brexit, the alternative isn't war.

 

It's really an impossible position for everybody, May especially. May wanted to keep the border as is and not rock the Good Friday boat, the EU said 'No, you can't have it both ways with leaving the EU while having the porous border at the same time.' (while somehow implying that they'd take NI away from the UK? dunno), the DUP wanted a hard border, and I think Republic of Ireland also wanted to keep the same porous border. Not that ROI had a vote here anyway.

 

Considering that Irish border is difficult issue, because of Good Friday agreement that was done to end Northern Ireland conflict or The Troubles as conflict is called in UK, which was guerilla war  which Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA)  fought against UK. As there is fear that hard border which is against Good Friday agreement will start said conflict again, in other words war is actually one possibility that people fear when it comes to hard Brexit.

[Gfted1]

We have too much freedom and "democracy" in the US, imo. We need some agency with the power to make informed, timely and final decisions.

[smjjames]

 

The US Civil War doesn't really work as an analogy because in Brexit, the alternative isn't war.

 

It's really an impossible position for everybody, May especially. May wanted to keep the border as is and not rock the Good Friday boat, the EU said 'No, you can't have it both ways with leaving the EU while having the porous border at the same time.' (while somehow implying that they'd take NI away from the UK? dunno), the DUP wanted a hard border, and I think Republic of Ireland also wanted to keep the same porous border. Not that ROI had a vote here anyway.

 

Considering that Irish border is difficult issue, because of Good Friday agreement that was done to end Northern Ireland conflict or The Troubles as conflict is called in UK, which was guerilla war  which Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA)  fought against UK. As there is fear that hard border which is against Good Friday agreement will start said conflict again, in other words war is actually one possibility that people fear when it comes to hard Brexit.

 

 

Ironically, it's the DUP that wants the hard border. It's looking more and more like a no-deal Brexit will take that decision out of their hands and they'll have to deal with the aftermath.

 

I wonder if some Sinn Fein members wish they had a voice in this proccess because they really could have helped shape the whole thing given that it's the DUP that want the hard border, but Sinn Fein doesn't.

Edited January 16, 2019 by smjjames

[Volourn]

"We have too much freedom and "democracy" in the US, imo. We need some agency with the power to make informed, timely and final decisions.          "

 

Right. Because dictatorshsips always do well for their people. L0LZ

[Maedhros]

Freedom is nice, but strong governments are probably going to be a necessity to combat global warming

[Volourn]

And, that's when they'll start sending people to the ovens because  they'll say to beat global warming you need less people so 25% of all people must be killed. And, they'll be 'fair' and do some sort of lottery. LMFAO