Gromnir

*chuckle* is no shame in being wrong, though admitted being wrong is often unnecessary. as we keep pointing out, and zor keeps missing, the question o' the possibility o' russian success were not decided for some considerable time after the invasion and we even had boardies predicting russian victory in less than a week. were a whole lotta unknowns and many folks got wrong. so what? our criticism were o' gaslighting and not the bad guesses. however, much as the linked author michael kofman, am thinking it is foolish to make predictions or blanket judgements based on a paucity o' info. why not wait? is fine to state or share facts as known but is better to refrain from embracing judgments or opinions you may need relinquish when new info appears. recall the jussie smollet situation? more than a few pundits and celebs rushed to mr. smollet's defense. as more info became available, defending jussie looked less admirable, but more than a few folks had become emotional invested and refused to give ground even when facts showed the reality o' the situation were much different than described. make ignornace based assessments o' uvalde standoff or police shootings in wisconsin or comparing early russian ukraine advances to desert storm gains is having a high possibility o' the need for reevaluation once better info is available. whatever. the thing is, once some clowns plant their flag on a hill they is unwilling to budge and they will fight to the death pretending their hill were actual representing a win. that said, and am getting fatigued repeating, it is the gaslighting, deflection and whataboutism some resort to defend their mistakes which turns this thread into a mess. we observed how we were purposeful not indulging in individual finger pointing as it would lead to the kinda predictable stoopid which plagues this thread. and so it goes. watch as some twist self in knots describing how whataboutism isn't what definitions says it is or explaining away their mistaken assessments o' russia's pre invasion threat. is no prize or win for adding your opinions to the interweb. is nothing noble 'bout having the courage to be anonymous and wrong on an internet message board. HA! Good Fun!

am unsure either. is a whole lotta guesses 'bout russian goals and strategy based on captured plans and hastily removed propaganda pieces. the invasion involved a massive and multipronged attack which also caught russian forces off guard as secrecy were maintained up to highest levels no doubt contributing to the charlie fox scenario. so many things could go wrong and did go wrong for the russians, which does make one wonder 'bout why the invasion were attempted. however am repeating 'cause is easily forgotten, russian success were hardly viewed universal as improbable in february and for some time afterwards. the invasion on its face was a not the kinda russian brigandry as described by kofman. even so and regardless o' fact the russians committed nowhere near enough troops to hold all or even a large portion o' ukraine, there were hardly any kinda consensus that russian efforts at regime change were doomed from the get-go. we tend to agree with you that once russian initial efforts failed to meet expectations, there were a return-to-form if you will, which is in part what inspired us to post the link to the article. the form russians returned to is the brigandry described by kofman and am thinking such helps to somewhat explain the difference 'tween the discipline and restraint we expect o' successful western armies compared to russian norms. "brigandry" and "raiding" is viewed negative... in the west. chevaunchee has a long and storied tradition which has only recent, relative speaking, fallen into disfavor. HA! Good Fun!

@xzar_monty hope you see what am talking 'bout. we make a post in which we push back a bit on a @Gorthobservation by noting russians do military different and use tactics circa the 17th century and earlier to achieve goals westerners have difficulty understanding. "they don't fight as a cohesive force, they don't support each other and if something can be raped, pillaged or plundered for personal benefit, it takes priority." is not wrong, but we observed how the situation is more complex than it might first appear on the surface, and in spite o' the perceived shortcomings o' planning and implementation o' the russian campaign in ukraine, "strategic goals were not outta reach until considerable time had elapsed, at which point morale o' troops predictable dropped and discipline eroded. should recall when this all started there were more than a few board pundits predicting ukraine wouldn't last a week, which is likely what russia was hoping to see." were an observation that the russians perceived barbarism is maybe a bit more complicated o' an issue to tackle and we offered an article by michael kofman as reading material which is presenting the much different approach to modern war being embraced in moscow as 'posed to berlin, london, washington d.c. or virtual anywhere in the west. again, in spite o' lack o' discipline and failure to achieve any kinda combined arms operations success, russians still looked to have a chance o' achieving goals and a few boardies even were predicting a quick russian victory. need only look at posts from january 24 if you wish. one day. regardless, maybe russians is doing war wrong, but perceived shortcomings is also 'cause they is doing war fundamental different. ... 'course very quickly we get complete off topic with zor doing the zor thing where he conjures up responses to arguments not made and defending foibles with deflection and... all o' which makes our initial observation 'bout why we didn't wanna indulge look positive prophetic, no? HA! Good Fun!

so you are relying on the strawman bit... again? those as yet unseen posts quoting milley that Gromnir didn't actual criticize anyways? serious? what else is you gonna punch the stuffing outta and the attribute to Gromnir as the source o' your indignation. is particular amusing 'cause in 2014 we did specific quote a harvard economist as 'posed to making the prediction our own, so hypocrisy much? and you do realize you are the guy who once again is trying to change the subject mater in an effort to deflect. serious, you cannot be bothered to review a couple days in february? this tack hasn't worked out well for you in the past. actually, as we has stated so many times, when an issue is uncertain, and there is conflicting reporting, the smart move is to wait. common sense and reasonableness is not somehow confused with lacking courage. nobody (well, almost nobody) is gonna criticize if you post quotes from local police if there is a shooting incident or if you post links to reuters or wapo which quote milley regarding ukraine resistance. those is examples o' facts. milley and the police could be wrong, but the reporting o' what were said is likely factual. nevertheless, zor continues to rush headlong into the breech with his reddit conspiracy theories and misinformation. never learns. and yeah, we brought up a generalized and nonspecific observation 'bout gaslighting and reimaging posts... and you instant saw self as the target. *chuckle* you even invented possible subject matter for our nonspecific observation? pathological. the thing is, as noted, the generalization did apply even if we weren't specific referencing zor. sure enough you were being dismissive o' the reports o' intelligence suggesting an imminent russian invasion. edit: btw, anybody who thinks there is something courageous 'bout anonymous posting internet opinions is either unwell, way too invested in their internet life, or just plain stoopid. HA! Good Fun!

somehow this part got missed. were a whole lotta fog o' war in january and february, so being wrong were hardly a shock and being right were more a matter o' making a lucky guess. being dismissive o' the potential threat? now that were a silly level o' stoopid. regardless, were some doozies in the ukraine thread and reviewing february 23+ is worth chuckles as people with a clear absence o' meaningful info were making all kinda observations and predictions. HA! Good Fun!

actually, exact what we were talking 'bout, but as usual, your reading comprehension, sucks. so yeah, we were including the laughable dismissals o' the very real as it turns out threat posed by russians before the invasion. we did not mention you in the bit 'bout predicting less than a week capitulations, so narcissism much on that, eh? but yeah, lots o' people got stuff wrong, which is why we said in the politics thread before this one splintered that it were silly and misguided to pontificate given the fog o' war. is more than a few examples o' boardie fails 'bout ukraine, and most such stuff is info many people got wrong. btw, takes all o' ten minutes to search february 24 to sees multiple people on this board predicting a quick resolution to the conflict, but zor is satisfied with low effort and a misrepresentation in addition to the aforementioned reading fail again proving our point to @xzar_montythat getting into it with the gas lighters and deflectors just ain't worth it. keep proving us correct. never gets old. HA! Good Fun!

were the ogl responsible for massive wotc growth? have seen it argued the ogl did little to add revenue to wotc/hasbro and its main value were that it was seen as a way to make dnd less palatable to a larger and adversarial publisher who might acquire and then kill, but am honest doing little more than posting stuff we recall posted by ex-wotc bloggers. we got no hard data and am admitting it were never something we followed close. HA! Good Fun!

@xzar_monty see what we mean? guy indulges in blatant strawman and somehow sees as a valid critique. the post we didn't make attacking a poster for quoting milley? rich. *shrug* that said, zor does have a few chuckle-worthy posts from mid february 22 which is dismissive o' the threat o' an imminent russian invasion. not hard to find those links either, eh? 'course he has shown difficulty managing search functions in the past. *eye roll* thanks to zor for once again proving a point for us. HA! Good Fun!

the degree o' gaslighting which took place in this thread is one reason we avoid. posts from immediate before and after the invasion is all too often reimagined or ignored and the lack o' self-awareness by a few is genuine stunning even to a guy who has been posting on these boards for decades. not gonna indulge at this time. HA! Good Fun!

irrevocable is a term o' art 'bout which which multiple courts has written opinions. given the lack o' meaningful consideration, am not seeing a way around this. if some guy from queens is making knock-off dallas cowboys hats and t-shirts in his garage, would be tough to suggest the nfl and dallas cowboys is benefitting 'cause their brand is seeing wider exposure, which were the terribad argument we has seen offered in the past for how the ogl benefits wotc and hasbro and fulfills the consideration aspects o' K (contracts) law. is not specific our area o' expertise, and am not offering our observations as legal advice for those considering legal action 'ganst wotc and hasbro, but recognizing is not something we has considered for years, our initial gut reaction, which is worth absolute Zero, were only surprise it has taken so long for some nogoodnik suit to pull the plug on the fun. HA! Good Fun!

have read nothing save having seen a few headlines saying hasbro/wotc is pulling a darth vader and changing the deal am recalling years past when asked similar we observed/warned that the ogl didn't specify it were "irrevocable," which meant it was in all likelihood revocable at will. as such, the current meltdown has us conflicted as we feel a smidge smug 'bout being proven correct while also experiencing disgust that hasbro/wotc went and did it. and yeah, am a big proponent o' rule zero. we would prefer play than gm, but when we gm am invariably adding a bunch o' house rules and am making clear if we feel is necessary we will change rules on-the-fly. am also open to players suggesting changes if Gromnir homebrew prove unworkable, but rulez lawyering is kinda verboten with us... is exceptions when am thinking the results is clever and amusing w/o breaking the game. HA! Good Fun!

am gonna suggest is a bit more complicated. russia's kleptocracy inevitable results in practical troop strength being overestimated as divisions is rare anywhere near full strength from a western pov. also, putin put his undertrained and poorly equipped army in a less than ideal situation from the get go. nevertheless, in spite o' the monumental charlie fox which were the russian invasion o' ukraine, strategic goals were not outta reach until considerable time had elapsed, at which point morale o' troops predictable dropped and discipline eroded. should recall when this all started there were more than a few board pundits predicting ukraine wouldn't last a week, which is likely what russia was hoping to see. RAIDING AND INTERNATIONAL BRIGANDRY: RUSSIA’S STRATEGY FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION Raiding is an effective riposte to a strong but distracted opponent, and becomes popular when the technologies of the time create a rift between the political objectives sought and the means available to attain them. This makes traditional forms of warfare too costly, too risky, or unsuitable to the goals desired. Raiding proved prevalent before the modern nation-state system was formed in 1648 and subsequently exported by Europeans to the rest of the world. is an article from 2018. sure, the combined arms operations for russia has been laughable, and is no excuse for such failures, but the russians is capable o' professionalism and discipline on the battlefield as long as one recognizes that one is speaking o' professional raiders and brigands. gorth has western expectations for how soldiers is 'posed to behave on the battlefield and for good reason as there is a whole lotta historical success attributed to well trained and disciplined western armies. the russian military is not embracing the same western traditions. in any event, is an interesting article especial given it were written before the ukraine invasion. HA! Good Fun!

serious answer: is upwards o' 1.3 million lawyers, so from only a crude numbers perspective, is a better than fair chance you will see a few attorneys in any large gathering. demographics suggest pnp role-players is mostly white, male and suburban. the number o' women is almost 40%, so not bad for XX representation. similar numbers for crpgs... weird. data suggests role-players is excruciating white btw. better than 2/3 is under 40 years of age. for those who is employed, tends to be people making ok money--last we saw were $115,000, but that were tenish years past. the most represented occupations were sales, finance and marketing... industries most common were finance, transportation and software. college degree is only 30%, but am suspecting much o' that is 'cause is 'cause age o' role-players still tends young and you got a large number o' gamers in their teens and early 20s being represented. anecdotal: for the first couple years on the interplay boards, nobody knew we were an attorney, 'cause we don't tell folks in passing. a guy name shadowspawn outed us with info we had shared in private, though to be fair is not as if we swore him to secrecy. shadow asked what we did in rl and we responded, mentioning we ordinary don't share... at which point he then shared with the community. *insert eye roll* cat were outta the bag. am suspecting is a few lawyer role-players who you ain't aware is lawyers... and perhaps a few pretenders as well. aside, Gromnir and the handful o' attorneys we know from role-play groups, tend to be rules zero advocates as 'posed to rulez lawyers, though admitted am old, so is possible more an age thing than profession. example(s): dnd 2nd edition were an absolute mess as it were mostly 1st edition but with popular sh!te from convention module gameplay and dragon magazine articles just kinda dumped into a vitamax pro-blender set on 10. 2nd edition were almost unplayable w/o a frequent application of rule zero. one o' the more amusing and enduring loopholes were 3e dnd, and am not even referencing the monk stuff or harm but rather undead and their fort saves. undead in 3e and beyond has 0 constitution, which results in relative terrible fort saves. 'course undead is immune to most fort save effects such as disease and poison. the thing is, undead physical form is treated as objects, and 3e spells such as shatter and disintegrate is highly effective against objects. 3e disintegrate and shatter provided fort saves. rulez lawyerz realized offing any corporeal undead up to and including a demi-lich were ez peasy and they would fight tooth and nail those gm/dm who rolled their eyes and implemented house rules to keep undead encounters game challenging and fun. not surprising, later editions made so undead used charisma or will to be replacing fort when making fort saves, but again, age gives us perspective. am always amused by the rules lawyerz who somehow is more invested in winning the game than in making the game fun for everybody. these games weren't written by lawyerz who looks for every loophole. virtual every game system is broken from the very start and gms and players need be both reasonable and rational if they wanna see a campaign last. oh, and our not so clever disguised disgust o' the rules lawyerz/purists who earnest believed poe should adopt every bad bg2/dnd feature is in part 'cause o' decades o' rejection o' the rules lawyerz pov. HA! Good Fun!

new orleans is one o' our favorite US cities to visit due in no small part to fact we enjoy good food and music. is the only location we look for turtle soup on every menu. ... in the US, august and september is historical the months hardest hit by hurricanes, but recent years has seen october in new orleans suffer more than its share o' cataclysmic weather events. october is technical hurricane season although late october is ordinarily swell kinda weather with nice temps and more overcast than storms, but am mentioning 'cause in our experience englishmen is frequent nonplussed by "extreme" US weather. HA! Good Fun!

*chuckle* is no reason to change your mind. the post abyss drezen material is brief and clunky. however, having knowledge o' the pnp ap as well as having played the game multiple times and choosing different mythic paths, am seeing a practical explanation for the added curiously tacked on post abyss content. 'course practicality does not obviate the lack o' deftness displayed. HA! Good Fun!

the post abyss street fight in drezen is not part o' the pnp ap, so the design choice is square on owlcat. am agreeing the material does feel clunky, but am gonna note the drezen encounters is mythic heavy which likely explains why the street fight(s) were added. for example, previous to the convo with the inheritor, you meet halaseliax, which is kinda your last step on the gold dragon path. does the encounter seem forced? yeah, but again, is the tacked on owlcat specific mythic content which were not easily integrated into act iv. is not ideal to functional shoehorn mythic content in quick before the iomedae encounter, but woulda' been tough to work in the material seamless and unavoidable in the abyss. HA! Good Fun!

am knowing 0 'bout the new movie. miramar is setting for the first movie and miramar is a marine air station so am s'posing the marine presence at a funeral for an aviator at miramar would make a kinda/sorta sense... but we assume the new movie is set at fallon... maybe? most obvious answer is sailor honor guard just don't look as kewl as the marines. dunno. HA! Good Fun!

the main character o' the movie ain't a real person. the film is not hiding the fact it is a dramatization. so, yeah, events in the movie obvious ain't gonna be true-to-life in every respect. the thing is you may review war crimes testimony which shows that the stuff you find offensive did take place, many times, but you quibble over a specific event. can take a single scene outta context and miss forest for the trees. but again, am not surprised by skew. edit: "The Srebrenica massacre has become the subject of intense politicization, to the point of genocide denial in some quarters, to which the moral clarity of Zbanic’s film operates like a rebuke. This is not historical revisionism, if anything, “Quo Vadis, Aida?” works to un-revise history, re-centering the victims’ plight as the eye of a storm of evils — not only the massacre itself, but the broader evils of institutional failure and international indifference." is from the variety review we linked. forest v. trees. HA! Good Fun!

as somebody who has turned down the position, we has insights. good luck to @Mamoulian Warin any event. HA! Good Fun!

and am observing the objectivity o' a few boardies might be suspect. we would be suspicious o' comradeyellow regarding any material which were critical o' china and/or russia. similar, we would not look to orogun01 for insights 'bout a documentary with the holocaust as subject matter. HA! Good Fun!

in early 2021 our kyocera dura flip phone became non-functional 'cause it were only compatible up to 3g. we got some kinda samsung android thing as a free replacement, but am admitted much missing the kyocera. were so nice having a phone which were flawless for voice calls and rugged enough to handle Gromnir mountain bike falls/crashes and the like. HA! Good Fun!

is possible a few boardies have a skew regarding the events which is the subject matter o' the film. am gonna suggest those who is ambivalent maybe check out reviews. ‘Quo Vadis, Aida?’ Review: Harrowing, Vital Retelling of the 1995 Srebrenica Massacre as have noted previous, the only value we see in reviews is when one is unsure whether a movie is worth their time and money, considering the insights o' a reviewer who you recognize as having opinions which resonate may be helpful in deciding whether or not to view. https://www.metacritic.com/movie/quo-vadis-aida question: would we find a comradeyellow critique o' an elephant sitting still to be persuasive? unlikely. HA! Good Fun!

keep in mind is not that we got any kinda bias against newer autos. the harsh reality is our skillset is insufficient to be doing much more than change oil and windshield wipers on cars built in the last decade. our first autoshop lesson from high school were taking apart a briggs and stratton lawnmower engine and rebuilding. as you might imagine, there were no computer on the lawnmower engine. if am faced with an ignition issue, our reflex is to look to the distributor. etc. am so last century it is painful. HA! Good Fun!

am sympathizing. we don't even bother working on any american vehicle built more recent than 1988. HA! Good Fun!

for those with hulu, am seeing quo vadis, aida? is available is making our shortlist o' best movies from the past couple decades, which is odd 'cause is also one o' the better reviewed movies o' the past couple decades and our opinions rare align with the meta-critic groupthink. HA! Good Fun!