I actually feel the genre really hasn't been going forward all that much in the past 8 or 9 years. MotB and The Witcher had great things, but other than that I feel that RPGs really haven't been evolving all that much. Bioware and Bethesda in particular(although I haven't played Fallout 3) seem to be the main "stagnators " of the genre.
Bioware has been releasing the same game over and over again with slight changes to the combat systems. As far as narrative, quest structure and dialogue are concerned, Bioware still has done thing to improve over BG2, which was in no way perfect to begin with. And, seeing as their games always get hailed as a new paradigm on release, I don't see this changing any time soon.
Bethesda, on the other hand, are much worse in this regard. Morrowind was Daggerfall with new clothes, with no improvement apart from interface and graphics. Daggerfall's great character creation system was toned down into oblivion, and the quests and dungeons, despite being hand crafted this time around were still as empty and lifeless as in Daggerfall. Oblivion had, at times, some improvement in writing, and the combat is marginally better than in Morrowind, but the world was still as dead as in Morrowind. Really for a game developer that touts itself as the creator of worlds to explore they've really been failing every step of the way. Maybe Fallout 3 changes this, but I have yet to find out. Again, like with Bioware, Bethesda's games always get hailed as masterpieces on release so I don't see Bethesda putting any effort into creating a living world filled with options and richness. Finally, I find it grimly humorous that Morrowind was hailed as brilliant by everyone, when it sported the exact same flaws that got Daggerfall lambasted at the time of release, but that's marketing hype for you.