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Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Little bit more on the Officer losses of Russia: -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Yesterday Lithuania has announced, that as a first country in the world is completely Russian Free on energy imports. No more gas, oil and electricity imports from Russia. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Also, here is pretty interesting interview, which pretty much confirmed, what I was "thinking about aloud" last few days in this thread -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
This one is pretty implausible... from the department of to good to be true -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Little bit more on the Harpoon deals by Ukrainian sources. Probably overestimation, but even if that statement is 50% true, this is pretty big deal, and all the wheat might be able to get out of Odessa soon... Also yesterday report of ISW was very interesting, and pretty much confirms, that the Ukrainian tactics of waiting for Russian implosion, although greatly costly, works. More and more pro-Russian bloggers are talking about the mismanagement and incompetence of Russian officers, which has catastrophic consequences for already shaken servicemen and officer morale... Well this is what you get, when you assign your promotion based on how much are they up in your ass, instead on how competent they are "Ukrainian forces are also suffering serious losses in the Battle of Severodonetsk, as are Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure. The Russians have concentrated a much higher proportion of their available offensive combat power to take Severodonetsk than the Ukrainians, however, shaping the attrition gradient generally in Kyiv’s favor. The Ukrainians continue to receive supplies and materiel from their allies as well, however slow and limited that flow may be. The Russians, in contrast, continue to manifest clear signs that they are burning through their available reserves of manpower and materiel with no reason to expect relief in the coming months. Evidence of eroding military professionalism in the Russian officer corps is mounting. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian commanders are attempting to preserve military equipment by forbidding drivers from evacuating wounded servicemen or providing supplies to units that have advanced too far.[1] Refusing to risk equipment to evacuate wounded personnel on the battlefield—other than in extraordinary circumstances—is a remarkable violation of core principles of military professionalism. Such behavior can have serious impacts on morale and the willingness of soldiers to fight and risk getting injured beyond their own defensive lines. ISW cannot independently confirm the GUR’s report, but commentary by Russian milbloggers offers some circumstantial support for it. Russian milblogger Alexander Zhychkovskiy criticized the Russian military command’s disregard for reservists on the deprioritized Zaporizhia Oblast front. Zhychkovskiy reported that Russian commanders trapped lightly-equipped infantry units in areas of intense Ukrainian artillery fire without significant artillery support and did not rotate other units through those areas to relieve them.[2] Zhychkovskiy noted that Russian commanders are responsible for high losses and cases of insanity among servicemen. Another milblogger, Alexander Khodarkovsky, said that Russian commanders are not sending reinforcements in a timely matter, preventing Russian forces from resting between ground assaults.[3] Waning professionalism among Russia’s officers could present Ukrainian forces with opportunities. Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues. If Russian troops stuck on secondary axes lose their will to fight as the Battle for Severdonetsk consumes much of the available Russian offensive combat power, Ukraine may have a chance to launch significant counteroffensives with good prospects for success. That prospect is uncertain, and Ukraine may not have the ability to take advantage of an opportunity even if it presents itself, but the current pattern of Russian operations is generating serious vulnerabilities that Kyiv will likely attempt to exploit." -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
And sorry for triple post, I have just noticed it now. It looks like, that after a very long time of stalemate, the Ukraine started at least some small scale counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast. https://t.me/lumsrc/1589 -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
The ones, which make big bad kaboom. On a more serious note, Danes have RGM-84A. According to some site, which about which credibility I have no clue, it is possible they get some mix with other variants from other countries as well. But the deal is done by the Denmark. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Bacause we are now paying for 60+% of our gas to Norway and Croatia and other Netherlands in USD/EUR. The last 30+% we got from Russia is also payed in USD, because all of our Gas import is performed by state owned company, which gives us much better leverage, than private companies in the west, which must obey their shareholders as well. And if they turn us off, we have already enough gas stacked to have a chance to survive this winter. So we have now 1 and half year to find a way, how to substitute the last 30+%. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
To put it bluntly, you are correct… oh also, circling back to the “urban legend” of how Russia is minimising the civilian damage, which some people still wants to believe… here you can see in comparison how the real minimising of nonmilitary damage actually looks like when performed by UA artillery. And compare it to Russian “advancements”.. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
The other thing, that UA is waiting for, is that the EU will do their homework, and will make stricter and stricter sanctions to Russia. In the west of EU, there might be some people spewing bull**** like Kissinger, but for the east of EU (except Hungary ofc), it is unthinkable, to allow Russia win this war. On one hand, economic might take long to affect the Russian ruling elite, but there is serious lack of a lot of stuff, which Russia depends on, which was imported from the West. And they just simply cannot count on China to substitute EU in all of the stuff. The fact, that many people are omitting is, that Russia is more dependent on EU than vice versa. Slovakia less than month ago was whining, that we will pay to Russia in rubles for their gas. In less than a month a second biggest **** in our government, who wanted to pay in rubles, managed to make deals around the world for the same price as current Russian price, that we will be cutting off 60% of all Russian gas imports on June 1st 2022. If our useless **** in government are able to make such advantageous deals, everyone can... The Russian economic elite is already starting to become very worried how dire the whole economic situation in Russia might get, if the war does not end soon. Today 4 Duma members of Communist Party, signed the demand to stop the war... Something unthinkable just few days ago... And the discontent slowly grows. The easiest to notice, that the situation in Russia is getting to hell is to follow some Russian social trolls in Eastern Europe. They write a lot, about how awesome the denazification goes, but as soon, as Kissinger opened his mouth about ceding some Ukrainian soil to Russia for exchange of peace, the activity all of these trolls has arisen tenfold, with all of them praising how wise this guy is... If EU will do their homework as good as Slovakia did with the gas, and adds oil to it as well, Russian economy will implode sooner than anyone would dream of few weeks ago. And Russian army with no money, will be no threat anymore. T-62s instead T-80s will be then just the tip of the iceberg of their army's issues then... End if you really think, that ceding some soil to Russia will change anything, just look back at 1938, how did the ceding of Sudetten, Silesia and South Slovakia to Germany, Poland and Hungary helped to change something at that time... -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Well the fact is, that all the weapons from e.g. Lend Lease has not yet arrived, that's why the Ukraine is going full defense with leaving their positions as late as possible (see Lyman). As I said, even Zelensky says that on Donbas battleground the Russia has 5-times more equipment than Ukraine. The reason is simple. Russia has allegedly 50% of all troops currently in Ukraine around Severodonetsk and Lysichanks. So the most logical thing to do, is hold the ground as long as humanly possible, retreat, and be sure, that Russian casualties are bigger than Ukrainian. This really sucks, but they do not have any other option until more weapons arrive On some fronts, like Avdiivka this works for more than 3 months already, without need to retreat. At some other places, like Popasna and Rubizhne, it did not work, due to the terrain being less in favor to Ukraine, than around Avdiivka, which is like 5km away from the capital of DNR - Donetsk City. If enough weapons arrive soon, UA may start counteroffensive around Kherson, and hope, that the danger of turning off the water-pipe to Crimea again, would make Russian move some of the tremendous army power away from Severodonetsk and Lysichansk cauldron... -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
And here is the article about the Doneck spearatists complaining, which I've mentioned earlier. Google translate. But it is pretty much very close to what the WP says about Ukrainians. And it also states the obvious, that the collaborators who betrayed their own nation are for Soviets/Russians worth less than women for Taliban... https://www-startitup-sk.translate.goog/odmietame-tu-zomriet-separatisti-z-donecka/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp Also the Eastern Front is real mess, no doubt about that. The lack of equipment has been even addressed by Zelensky, Arestovych and even pro-Ukrainian bloggers. So the Washington Post article, pretty much states the obvious and logical things happening. I just don't understand, that some people are thinking, that being pro-ukrainian automatically means being a goof living in alternate reality... I'll leave that to consumers of Russian "news"... -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
In other news, more than 50 tons of stuff looted in Ukraine by Russians since February 24th, including their own army's Orlans... And people are wondering, why I am still making fun out of their soldiers, that they are dismantling even their half century old tanks, where is "nothing to gain". LOL If you really think, there is nothing to gain from gutted T-80 or even T-62, then you have absolutely no clue about the mentality of some people in post communist countries. And the more you are going to the east, the more is this mentality prevalent, because of their "standard of living"... -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Well the fact is, some of the american politicians are as big **** as russian... And yes we have such big **** here as well, and I bet there are that kind of **** everywhere else as well -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Sooner or later he would, and then another and then another... he considered West weak, due to how they **** up their "mission" in Afghanistan, and how much Eastern and Western block in EU was quarreling all of the time before the war... He did not expect the unity he got in the end... And I think with Trump up, there would be no way to establish such a unity as we have now... -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Yesterday, there was confirmation of T-62 echelon arriving in Melitopol and there are already some T-62 tanks with custom made improvements in Polohy (both Zaporizhie Oblast) -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
And that is OK, Ukraine is thankfully not as stupid as Russia to send to offensive untrained troops... As I have said, they are training mobilised troops, and will attack only, when they train them enough to be not a cannon fodder like most of the LNR and DNR forces, which have even officially complained about the forced mobilization and very low training provided by proxies... And people are then wondering, why even the most optimistic pro-russian military bloggers are now bitching about how failed this "operation" is, due to extremely high Russian casualties... -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Allegedly. No one knows for sure how many of them were gutted and sold by Ivans on black market -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
They already forced in Kherson city to use Rubles. According to official statement full Ukrainian counteroffensive will start after enough conscripts get sufficient training, which is currently rumored between end of july and start of september. Not to mention, that Ukraine is already amassing a lot of units near Kherson Oblast border for a week or two already. And that partisans are working diligently as well. Last report I've seen was a hefty bomb which injured head of regional occupation at Enerhodar city (The one with the one of the biggest nuclear power plants in Europe). -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Rumours says he worked for Wagners And three Kadyrovytes less as well. Also in Moldova, former pro-russian president was arrested and charged for corruption. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Russian officer losses since start of invasion And current Ukrainian casualties at the East Reported Russians daily losses are approx 100-250. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
I bet the numbers from both sides were/are overinflated. UAs because they wanted to be seen as more powerful, and RUs as they do not want to be riduculed, that it took to almost three months to defeat few hundreds of Azov volunteers , while making 100 thousands Russians homeless and aprox 10000 of them dead... Not to count the number of soldiers and equipment lost due to their incompetence at urban warfare -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Nope, they wat to get at least the full control of Luhansk, so no victory declaration before that. -
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Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
Mamoulian War replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Incoming Wall of Text, but I think it is worth to read, to get a little bit into what is going on in Russia atm. It was written in Polish, then translated to Czech, and I have translated it to you through Google Translate, so I hope nothing is lost from the original article. "Tyrant's new dress or Why Putin pretends and the world jumps at it Sergei Guriyev, a professor of economics, a former adviser to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and a former chief economist at the EBRD, on what Putin and Russia can expect under his dictatorial rule. JACEK ŻAKOWSKI (JŻ): Can you still understand Putin 9 years after fleeing Russia? SERGEI GURIEV (SG): It's hard for everyone to understand. But I can rationally explain what he does. JZ: Because you know him. SG: We never talked in plain sight. But I met him in a group of several people. He always tried to give the impression that he understood and accepted the main arguments of his partners. He took that from the KGB school. He avoids polemics. He tries to find out how the interview partner thinks and what he wants, as if he wants to recruit him. He approaches conversations solely in terms of usefulness. He is cynically rational. JŻ: When it is rational, then it is also predictable. SG: Unless, in his opinion, unpredictability is more rational. Therefore, it is always easier to explain what he has done than to predict what he will do. That is his tactics. This is different from Western politicians, who try to be predictable so as not to raise unnecessary fears in others and escalate unnecessary tensions. JZ: And Putin is chimerical. SG: He's pretending. For the West, unpredictability plays a role. And a lot of people jump at him. I still read that he is detached, obsessed, emotionally unstable. Or he may be highly uninformed. But we don't know what his ignorance is about. That is why it is difficult for us to predict what he will do. JŻ: So what is its rationality? SG: Political and economic. The political is based on the experience of the annexation of the Crimea in 2014. It lost popularity, so he made an annexation and again became popular. According to a study by the Levada Center, between 2010 and 2013, ie before the annexation, its popularity in Russia fell from 80 to 60 percent and after the annexation it jumped to an unprecedented 90 percent. But then stagnation began, real wages fell, and Putin's popularity gradually returned to about 80 percent. It was not until 2018 that it increased when the retirement age was raised and it dropped again to 60 percent after the outbreak of the 2019 pandemic. Therefore, he concluded that he needed another Crimea. It never occurred to him that this time the war would look different. JŻ: That wasn't very rational anymore. SG: That rationality was based on false assumptions. Putin did not know about the extent of the changes that took place in Ukraine after 2014. He misjudged Zelenský. He knew too little about the competence and determination of Biden's team, which could not afford to show weakness after Afghanistan. And the worst part for him was that he didn't realize the extent of the disintegration of his own army. That's why he takes revenge on the intelligence. If he knew all this, he would probably attack elsewhere. Trebas in Georgia. JŻ: Did he have to attack? SG: He had no idea how to regain support when real wages fell next year. Already in 2019, they were on average 7% lower than in 2013. JŻ: 2013 was still a good year in Russia. Why did you, the golden child of the Russian economy, travel so suddenly? SG: As an economist, I had to teach students real economics. That is, one that knows that economic growth requires good institutions - such as independent courts, fair competition, conscientious officials, promotion based on competencies, politically independent companies. And as rector of a private university, responsible for, among other things, funding, I had to appear in public debates. And in public I had to say what in the lectures. And Putin stopped liking it. For example, I was among the nine people whom then-President Medvedev publicly asked what we thought about Khodorkovsky's conviction. I replied that, as a holding economist, I considered this verdict to be unfounded. Putin didn't like it. Then Navalny came to me in May 2012 and said, "I am setting up an anti-corruption foundation, I want you to support it." I could not refuse, because as an economist and manager, I knew that corruption was Russia's biggest economic development problem. Putin didn't like that either. I was summoned for questioning, after which I realized that there was no place for me in Russia. JŻ: Somehow it doesn't surprise me. SG: Not me either, but I had no choice. How would I explain this to the students if I rejected Navalny? You can't teach one thing and do something else in public. It has already been seen that the economy is slowing down due to corruption. And then she stopped. JZ: Because of the sanctions. SG: The sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea were practically insignificant. They have never reduced Russian GDP growth by more than one percentage point. Even if there were no sanctions, the Russian economy would grow by less than 2 percent a year. It is not the growth that gives the dictatorial power that gave popularity. And it couldn't be higher, because the system is based on corruption and favoring friends. In the state and economy of Putin's Russia, the loyal, not the competent, are promoted. This is causing more and more economic problems and growing inequality because the protégés of state power are greedy. And when there is no growth, they can only get rich at the expense of others. JŻ: The greed of the oligarchs forced the war? SG: The impunity greed of hundreds of thousands of privileged companies and officials at very diverse levels. But the system would not have felt it politically without the opposition, which has become extremely effective on the social media. By exposing state corruption, it has increasingly disarmed the spin on which Putin based his popularity. Because he was still a typical spin dictator. JŻ: What does that mean? SG: The spin dictatorship is a great discovery of the twenty-first century autocrats. We still hear that Putin is the Stalin of our time. But what is Stalin without great purges and fears, without the Gulag, mass deportations, staged monstrous trials, moreover with legal opposition and very limited but legally functioning independent media, with the sincere support of the majority and not particularly false election results? The patent of the spin dictators - Putin, Orban, Nazarbayev, Chavez, Bolsonar, Trump - is that instead of killing people, they kill their minds. Instead of a big horror, they use a big spin. Instead of intimidation, they seduce, corrupt and demobilize resistance. This is a global trend based on universal know-how. Together with Daniel Treisman, we calculated that from the 1940s to the 1960s, one in four dictators who came to power was responsible for at least 100 political assassinations a year. In the zero years, it was less than every tenth. Similarly, 40 to 60 percent of dictators coming to power between 1945 and 1970 imprisoned more than a thousand political prisoners. But in the 21st century, less than 20 percent. JŻ: Dictatorships have become more pleasant? SG: The goal of a dictatorship is power and the benefits that power brings, not the killing of people. But a dictatorship is still a dictatorship, even when it uses informational and economic violence instead of physical violence and uses television, the press, Facebook, Twitter and TikTok instead of rifles and batons. JŻ: We both remember that in the 20th century, dictatorships did both. SG: Now they do both, but the proportions are opposite. The discovery of spin dictatorships is that if, instead of imprisoning or killing critics, they are allowed to function in some nice way and are downplayed in the dominant media, then people can be convinced that the dictator is a great democrat and his enemies are an elite who wants to harm ordinary people. A legal opposition niche is essential for a spin dictatorship so that it can be blamed for all the failures. Pseudo-alternatives are key. Without them, it would be difficult to explain to people the inevitable defeats and injustices of spin dictators. The classic spin argument is: "if they didn't interfere, everything would be better" or "if they ruled, it would be much worse." JŻ: Fascists and communists said the same thing. SG: But they imprisoned, murdered and intimidated their opponents. This deprived them of credibility. In a spin dictatorship, repression is an extreme used only when dissent comes from seclusion and begins to threaten the maintenance of power. Navalny was safe until his online announcements gained mass reach and influenced public opinion. Every week, he uploaded more episodes of a series on corruption by the Putin elite, which was watched by millions of people and tolerated by the authorities. It wasn't until years of stagnation and declining living standards in April 2020 that Putin's popularity dropped below 60 percent that his people resorted to repression to cut off the younger generation from dangerous content on the Internet. Navalny was poisoned and then imprisoned, the Memorial Association was dissolved, and most of Nik's free media were abolished. And when that turned out to be no longer enough to restore the popularity of power as the Internet spiraled out of control, Putin reached for a tool that worked in 2014 and sparked another war with Ukraine. JZ: Stalin said that "in building socialism, the class struggle is intensifying." The example of Putin's Russia shows that this is true of the progress made in building various dictatorships. SG: Most. Few dictatorships can modernize quickly and stably enough to compete effectively with democracies. And if they modernize successfully, they are usually doomed to democratization, like South Korea. Because the growing urban middle class demands freedom. JŻ: So the paradox of tyranny is that it must perish - either because of failure or because of success - but in any case they go through a phase of cruelty when they die? SG: If they want to stay open to the world - which is one of the basic preconditions of spin dictatorships - they cannot be permanent. But when they resort to repression, they can close themselves off from the world and remain in ever deeper autarchy for a long time as the usual dictatorships of fear. Like North Korea. Singapore is a critical exception. Despite the rapidly growing wealth, the dictatorship is not threatened, but the regime is softening. Of course, we do not know what will happen to China, which probably has its best years behind it. Rich countries are democratic with the exception of commodity dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. But these are also gradually softening dictatorships. But Putin's Russia is beginning to take the North Korean route. It falls into isolation and poverty, the spin dictatorship ends, replaced by the old-fashioned dictatorship of fear, which may persist for some time, but will become poorer, more cruel and isolated. JZ: For Russia, this is another failed attempt at modernization. Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Nicholas II, Lenin, Gorbachev, Putin - everyone tried to catch up with the West in their own way. Some were already quite close, but a crisis broke out that destroyed everything. You are an Ossetian, not a Russian, but you know Russia through and through. What's wrong with him? SG: Nothing. It simply still has a system that hinders its development. Economic growth is the result of investment and free enterprise. Russia had a period of large investments, but these were state investments or heavily controlled by the state. Freedom, including economic freedom, has always been limited or non-existent. Property protection and social cohesion, the rule of law, competition have built up Western power - and Russia is still lacking. From tsarism to Putin, corrupt, incompetent regimes ruled, stifling innovation and initiative. The result can not surprise anyone. JZ: The curse of eternal tyranny? SG: The same was said of many other countries before they democratized. JŻ: Some - like Turkey, Hungary or Poland - only for a short time. SG: South Korea was always a dictatorship before it became a democracy. Sweden too. I Germany. There are many more democracies in the world than there were 200 years ago, 100 years ago, 50 years ago. If we live for a while, we will see a democratic Russia. I'm sure of that. JZ: That's good news for Russia and bad news for Putin. SG: Sure. JZ: So in your opinion, Putin is in a tragic situation. It cannot maintain its popularity without economic growth, and the Russian economy will not be able to grow as long as Putin's authoritarian rule continues. SG: Exactly. The interests of Putin and the Russians have diverged. He tries to maximize his personal power. The Russians want to live better. For the first 10 years of Putin's rule, these goals coincided because raw material exports were enough to reduce poverty. Putin was really popular then. But then corruption, censorship, the feeding of the oligarchs and their surroundings at the expense of other Russians stopped the growth. The stronger Putin was, the weaker the Russian economy. The war radicalized this process. We all see Putin destroying Ukraine with bombs and rockets. But the media does not see how much Putin is destroying Russia. Hundreds of thousands of young Russian professionals have already fled abroad. Russia's economy is isolated and increasingly destroyed by breaking ties with the world. JŻ: Not with the whole world. SG: With the developed world. Putin is strengthening relations with some less developed countries. This can make an impression at the UN, because it is clear during the vote that he is not completely alone. But that will not bring Russia development. What can Russia sell them? Raw materials, weapons, very simple products. And they can offer Russia the same. For a while, it will be enough for Russia not to back down in civilization. But development will not bring it. And the West will move forward. JŻ: Repetition of the late USSR? SG: More or less. But the severance of ties with the West is already causing the biggest recession since the early 1990s. After 23 years of absolute rule, Putin has brought Russia to a state where he has taken power and gained popularity precisely for getting Russia out of this state. For years, it was believed that what was good for Putin was good for Russia. The attack on Ukraine ended this phase. What is good for Putin has become bad for Russia. JZ: Does Putin understand that? SG: He understands. But the question is what he sees when he looks in the mirror and how he explains it. JŻ: And? SG: He thinks things are more important than GDP. He reiterates that Russia is a proud country, that more important is its imperial spirit, that the Russians must resist the West, because that is their historical mission. Of course, he knows how much Russia and its power and war cost. But he thinks it's worth paying the price, and in the end Russia will benefit. Because the only alternative he can imagine is the triumph of American imperialism, the exploitation of Russian wealth by the West, and the tightening of the NATO loop around Russia. If anything really scares him now, it is the prospect of Finland and Sweden joining NATO quickly. Even though he has some tactical success in Ukraine, the strategic effects of the war are exactly the opposite of his intentions. Ukraine is consolidating against Russia. NATO is moving closer and more firmly integrated. The West is leaving Russian raw materials. Russia is compromising and degenerating economically. The Second World Army is rotting in the Ukrainian mud for the third month in a row and cannot cope with the resistance of many times smaller Ukraine. JZ: This war is a tragedy for Ukraine, it is destroying Russia, it is damaging the whole world, because the war is raising energy and food prices. But there is also an optimistic spark, which is essential. For two decades, the world has been under the growing impression of the success of the spin dictatorships that you and Daniel Treisman described in the book. Do the impacts and limits of the greatest spin dictatorship free us from the illusion that spin dictators are an alternative that will replace outdated Western market democracy? SG: That's the point of the book. Spin dictatorships are the same impasse as previous dictatorships of fear, communism or fascism. In the beginning, they can give the impression of efficient systems. They tend to be really effective for a while. But they inevitably lead to self-destruction because they run out of resources. They need educated people to develop, but educated people rebel or emigrate to the free world. The more developed a company is, the more it costs to control it. As costs begin to outweigh the benefits. This is an irreparable internal contradiction of any dictatorship, which is best seen in Cuba and Venezuela. JŻ: In this way, the Soviet bloc and the formerly Francoist Spain and Salazar's Portugal fell. SG: Now this is the path of all post-Soviet spin dictatorships, led by Putin's Russia. JŻ: Turkey too. SG: Turkey is a strange case. Erdogan combines spin with terror and the appearance of democratic freedom. Prisoners of thousands of professors, judges and opposition. He controls and pursues the media. But - unlike Putin - he lost the last election in the five largest cities. The Turkish opposition was not driven to seclusion. This is a borderline case. The impact is similar to that in Russia - a deepening economic crisis, irreparable tensions masked by muscle strain and still strong support for the government. However, it is worth looking at Armenia, whose dictator tried to impose apparent democratization in 2018 and had to leave under the influence of mass protests when he was appointed prime minister after his party's election, although he had previously promised to retire. The democratization of Armenia shows what a good end to spin dictatorships may look like. JZ: Kazakhstan is on this road. SG: It's not democracy yet, but he's embarked on a path that Turkey and Russia can take after the war. JŻ: Antony Blinken says that Russia will not win the war. What should that mean? SG: A spin dictator can't lose. He still has to talk about his successes. He presents every defeat as a victory. However, there are limits to distorting the facts. Putin cannot tell the Russians that the war brought nothing and ended with a return to the February 24 border. He must connect at least a piece of territory to Russia. JŻ: Donbas? SG: At least part of Donbas and maybe Transnistria. Then he says: we have conquered new territories, we have defended our brothers in the Donbas, we have conquered Kherson, so we have water for Crimea, we have destroyed the fascist infrastructure and ousted NATO - so success again! JŻ: The Russians will jump at that? SG: Maybe most. But it will not be the end. The West will see this as a brutal violation of international law, will maintain sanctions, and Putin's Russia will become a classic dictatorship of fear. Because who cares about Kherson, when wages fall, prices rise, shops are empty, you can forget about holidays abroad, and even athletes do not leave the country. From month to month, Kherson will be less important, and emptying refrigerators will be increasingly important. JŻ: Will this be the end of "illiberal democracy" as an enticing alternative to democratic capitalism? SG: The final end. The spin of the dictatorship will end, as did Soviet communism. JŻ: A good emperor will become a cruel wounded emperor. The place occupied by spin doctors will be taken by physicists and police officers with batons. And then what? SG: We both grew up in a similar system. It can't last forever. It is much less stable in the twenty-first century than in the twentieth century. At the time, Western Radio was the only source of independent information. There are now Internet media and VPNs. YouTube still operates legally in Russia. After blocking Instagram, people en masse turned on VPN and the ban is ineffective. I'm not saying it will be easy to reach most Russians, but it will be incomparably easier than it was 30 or 50 years ago. JŻ: Will Putin - like Pinochet, Honecker, Jaruzelski - be ready to resign in such a situation? SG: No. He is already accused of war crimes and his surroundings as well. No one resigns to go to prison. But people close to him can arrest him. Although it seems unlikely - like any palace coup until it happens. There may be mass protests that the police will no longer want to suppress. This also looks unrealistic today, but it was similar during the Ukrainian Maidan and many other revolutions. This is how the fall of the famous Berlin Wall came about. Ceaușescu also did not intend to resign, but the Romanians overthrew his regime within three days. JŻ: When will the Russians overthrow Putin? SG: It's not known. But there is no going back after February 24th. JŻ: Will Russia become different without Putin, or will it be like the declining USSR, where Brezhnev replaced Andropov, Andropov Chernenko and only after them Gorbachev appeared, until Yeltsin finally came? SG: There are several scenarios. Putin may be overthrown by one of the generals who wants to become the new dictator. But it will not work because Putin has built this system for himself. He had long since got rid of all those who could replace him. It is more likely that governments will be seized by a junta of several generals. This will quickly run out, because everyone is very unpopular and Russia is facing difficult times. Under the influence of unrest, they will blame each other and eliminate them until everything falls apart. The third scenario is that, according to the constitution, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will take power, and he will call new, freer elections to deal with the West and prevent large-scale protests. JŻ: So liberalization? SG: Which is usually out of control with such regimes. We saw it during perestroika and during the French Revolution. Because such regimes almost always start changing too late and too slowly. JŻ: And then you return to Russia? Maybe. In the social sciences, we know that such changes cannot be planned. But as a former EBRD chief economist, I co-created the team with which we developed a post-war reconstruction plan for Ukraine. It was an offer I could not refuse - just like Navalny's offer had once been. I think that before I return to Russia, I will work with other economists to help Ukraine. This is my duty as an economist, as a European and as a citizen of Russia. Jacek Żakowski spoke Sergei Guriyev - Economist, Professor and Scientific Director of Sciences Po in Paris. He was Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (2015-2019). In 2004-2013 he was rector of the Moscow New Economic School and, among other things, a member of the board of directors of Sberbank (Russia's largest retail bank). Adviser to President Dmitry Medvedev (2008-2012). He co-financed Alexei Navalny's anti-corruption fund and co-authored his economic program. He has recently published (with Daniel Treisman) a book: “Spin Dictators. The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century ”(Princeton, 2022)."