Mamoulian War

They might be probably still learning how to use it properly.

Sorry for multiposting, but I have just found this tweet. Please take it with grain of salt, I was not able to get any confirmation about it from sources, which I consider relevant, yet. Though it would be awesome if it is true... edit: Although Peskov has released statement, that he does not know about any Russian ship on fire, which might be considered as a relevant enough source for the sunkage of ships Also 5 more villages freed from Russian occupation in Kharkiv region.

e.g. Maxar if I have noticed it correctly, if it has some images, it releases it always with few days of delay. Same with Ukrainian General Staff.

IIRC this one was made in 2011 for cca 500 millions USD

Ukraine officialy launched counter-offensive on Kharkiv and Izyum axes yesterday. quote from ISW: "Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi stated on May 5 that Ukrainian forces are transitioning to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum, the first direct Ukrainian military statement of a shift to offensive operations.[13] Ukrainian forces likely intend to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city, force Russian units to redeploy from the Izyum axis, and potentially threaten Russian lines of communication. Ukrainian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the last 24 hours but repelled Russian attempts to regain lost positions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault on Stary Saltiv (approximately 40 kilometers east of Kharkiv City) on May 5, after Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement on May 2.[14] Russian forces also reconnoitered Ukrainian positions and continued to shell Ukrainian positions in the northeastern outskirts of Kharkiv City.[15] Pro-Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces blew up a bridge near the occupied settlement of Cherkaski Tishki, approximately 25 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv City, which could indicate an ongoing Ukrainian counterattack in the area targeting the bridge to interdict Russian movements.[16]"

There are a lot of indications, that NATO was always a scapegoat, and the primary issue was always EU, especially in Eastern Europe, due to politicians which are elected by democratic means are not as lightly influenced by Russian bribes as autocratic leaders (see Orban). That's why all the funding from Russia to EE is funneled to Neonazis and populists with autocratic tendencies. For a lot of people at Kremlin, the imagination of Ukraine people (which are not a nation in their eyes) having free elections, and the possibility, that their common people getting more wealthy while integrating into EU structures is the direct threat to Russian way of governing and holding their own people on the leash.

This one might be interesting news... "Lukashenka in Associated Press interview doubts that "Russian operation is going according to the plan" https://t.me/pul_1/5410

Also, back to speaking about Russia getting insane... Question to everyone... If official Russian government media mouthpieces are spreading information like this, how can you consider them not completely out of touch with reality, and how would you negotiate with these people?

Yes I agree on this. All I have said, that such a long time in separation of other people can lead to serious mental issues. Especially in conjunction to fear of getting sick of COVID. I've seen a lot of people broken from quarantine where I work, so even if we do not know his real health state, it is highly plausible, that he might have some mental issues as all the other people I've met. And if you take into the account, that there were around him this whole time only people who are afraid to say No, then this might theoretically lead to some serious mismanagement or misjudgement on his part.

Yes you are correct, there is a lot of Swamp and as I've mentioned, Russian are making best advancements around this area, but as I've said with situation around Kharkiv, it might help with disrupting at least some of the Russian opperation. And it has already happened after Ukraine seized back Staryi Saltiv. Also there are already emerging reports, that killing off general Semionov at Izyum might have sown some chaos into command line of the Russian forces at the area of Izyum. And almost all of the gains in Kharkiv area have taken place after the alleged general's demise as well. Yesterday report from ISW: Ukrainian forces continued to threaten Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum along the E40 highway, destroying a Russian supply convoy in Vesele on May 3. Answer to both of you, there are rumours about Israel willing to offer Ukraine their Iron Dome, especially now after Lavrov went full anti-semitic. I have absolutely no clue how that might be plausible, so I am just posting it here as one of the theoretical options here. Two general's deaths is being disputed now, as they allegedly shown themselves on Russian TV after the alleged hit. But knowing Russian propaganda, this might be a prerecorded footage to deny Ukrainian claims. And of course this could be also Ukrainian propaganda to boost little bit their soldier's morale... And There are also two unnamed generals, who allegedly died during bombing of command outpost in Kherson area, with pretty high number of lower ranking officers dead as well. This attack has not yet been verified by independent parties though. So the number of dead generals is currently between 8-12. Putin was not in the previous 20 years hidden without contact to other people. Since the start of COVID, he spent almost entire 2 and half years completely isolated with very few people able to contact him. Even the strongest people might get mental health problems when isolated for such a prolonged time. Also speaking about the Russian negotiations, well, their tactics since Syria is to pretend, that they want to negotiate with you, just to divert your attention to somewhere else, so they can stab you in the back at the first possible moment. But it looks like, that the West have learned hard lesson from Syria. Any negotiating efforts from Russia could not be taken seriously. Especially with all the gas and ores around Crimea and Donbas... Negotiations is just another means of waging their war. In Syria Russia offered deescalation in one of four areas of control in Syria, for the start of "negotiations" and while west was busy and happy about that one area, Russia snatched three others and obliterated them. And in the meanwhile, they were having "negotiations" with UN as well, which ended up with UN not having any significant reaction to Russian onslaught of civilians and civil infrastructure. The excerpt from one of many articles on how Russia is misusing "negotiations" to deceive the other side: "Negotiate As If There Were No War and Bomb As If There Were No Negotiations In 2015 Russia decided to take advantage of the vacuum left by Western actors and engaged in Syria on three levels simultaneously: militarily, diplomatically and politically. One of the common features of the wars in Syria and Ukraine is the Russian strategy of negotiating as if there were no war and bombing as if there were no negotiations. On all three levels, Russians have outdone their Western counterparts. Highly capable Russian diplomats have upheld political dialogue and, at the same time, kept the military option open. Both reinforced each other. Sitting at the table opens options in case they are needed. During the talks a peaceful narrative could be fed to the media, reducing international outrage and allowing a regrouping of forces." Full article: https://blogs.prio.org/2022/05/putins-blood-trail-from-syria-to-the-ukraine-western-failures-in-the-face-of-power-play-propaganda-and-de-humanization/ Note, that the same strategy was deployed during Phase 1 of Russian invasion of Ukraine, but thankfully, they failed this time to spark the international outrage against bad west trying to sabotage the peace talks...

This will be a bloodbath... TBH I think some mad Russian officer decided that they have to get the steelworks before May 9th at all costs... Azovstal was build in USSR time as an Anti-Nuclear cover... I am unable to imagine how this could end well for the Russian soldiers...

AFAIK, the Kherson region is currently at stalemate as well, the biggest gains for Russia are currently around Izyum area, but these are limited as well. And the Kharkiv counter-offensive is there to weaken the Russian advancements at this specific front. Also, the gains around Kharkiv should not be dismissed so lightly, because especially in the village of Ruska Lozova, the Russians put hell of a fight, and Ukrainians had significant loses. Also, Ukraine is as of today in possession of 80 out of 90 US provided howitzers, and 90000 out of 144000 rounds for them, which if placed at some strategically significant points, could turn the table even more to the Ukrainian side, because AFAIK, these howitzers have longer range, than Russian artillery. All of this will of course help only if they will be able to save them from Russian air bombardment. Also you are right about the Russian artillery, because Russian are still tightly defending the area NorthEast of the Kharkiv. Which could be possibly taken care of in the short/mid-term if Ukraine will be successful at encircling them from the newly acquired Stariy Saltiv area. Yup, that's why I have written, why you should take it with a grain of salt, although the whole accusation is plausible for me. Also this "wishful thinking" is kind of in line, with the leaked article from the start of the invasion, which one Russian news site (sorry but don't remember the name anymore) released by mistake, and very swiftly took down.

No direct proof, but here is a google translate of russian Konsomolskaya Pravda from March 1st, where they are talking how this might/will end up. Orban and the people around him were always very vocal about the cancellation of Treaty of Trianon, and from the experience, of how Hungary tried meddling into the affairs of they neighbours in recent past, including Slovakia (one of the most notable one is handing out Hungarian passports to people in neighbouring countries, very similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine), I consider this information plausible, but it should still be taken with a pretty big grain of salt, because my subjective view on this matter might be a little bit skewed and not objective from personal experience of Slovak politics. https://www-kp-ru.translate.goog/daily/27371.3/4552402/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

They are slowly winning back some land lost, in last few days, though. Most notably around the Kharkiv region, where they got back a loads of land, which was occupied since February 24th. (Land north of Chuhuiv and west of Siverskyi Donec river, up to town of Staryi Saltiv - advance of almost 40km in a single day during Ukrainian counter-offensive). EDIT: And besides that, there are some incidents of spontaneous combustion all around Russia on places critical to military research and supply, which might turn the wages even a little bit more on the side of Ukraine .

Yes, I agree, it is just another powerplay of Putin to scare them, well I sometimes hope, that some of the EU countries would get the same balls as Turkey did, when Russia repeatedly after a lot of warnings have been ignored. Erdogan shot down one or few of their planes and since then Russia stopped barking on them...

yeah, let's glorify, how Russia is stable under Putin, and completely forget how he is destabilizing whole Eastern Europe with his hybrid war since 2014, with half of the neonazi and nationalist parties in these countries being on his payroll... His goal being to completely undermine EU and slowly cause it to dissolve with the use of useful idiots like Orban, who was probably promised Zakarpathia Ukraine, to stay on Putin's leash... If he would not be such a moron and waited few more years, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia would make as much mess in the EU as UK did since start of Brexit rally... Before the War, Putin's approval here was over 60% (mostly due to well executed hybrid war)... nowadays, it is around 20%...

To play a massive cynic, well, a civil war in a country with 6000 nukes would solve a lot, if no one decided to intervene...

I am being sick from playing the race card at every single opportunity... Yes in all of Europe there are lots of racist, but not everything is turning around them... Most of the time, the true reason, why is something happening is somewhere completely else... In case we would be speaking about Syria, there would be much more reason for the race card, because the Slovakia media completely failed about it, and the neonazis have stolen the narrative... And guess, who is paying Slovak neonazi parties? Russia... There are a lot of lawsuits now against them, because our secret service finally found some evidence about direct involvement of Russian embassy with neonazi disinformation in Slovakia... TLDR; behind every **** happening in Eastern Europe, you'll find a Russian ****...

Probably yes. But you never know... Still to much trouble for Russia could cause them much more than losing Crimea... If some people will consider them weak, it could bring havoc to whole Russia...

Johnson and probably few more politicians in the West has already announced, that it is OK to use their weapons against targets in Russia. There rumours of HIMARS being in Ukraine started to circulate around 15th April, but no "credible" source has confirmed this yet. So it is either top secret, or the people are again talking out of their asses... I see it as a 10-90 chance Hmm, I am really curious, how they want to manage all this new territory. They are already lacking the manpower to do proper fights, and according to our local analysts, Russia lost so many of the most elite forces of the Russian Army, that they are ****ed for generations, and the young Russians just do not want to join the mandatory conscription... Also there is one more thing almost no one is speaking about. A lot of fighters joined the Ukraine war from the easternmost ethnically non-russian parts of the Russia (in much bigger numbers than the ethnic Russians) and now, that the "boys" are getting back in caskets, there is growing a discontent at these regions. And last time, when some discontent grew to high, Chechnya happened. But at that time, the Russian army was at their highest. Not as crippled as they are today... And the other thing is, that some of the ex-soviet republics are starting to sense a weakness, and they might help with the rise of discontent here and there, just to get as far away from Russian influence as possible. The latest notable news from this area, is that Russia asked directly these countries to help them evade the sanctions. And Kazakhstan denied that option immediately. Anyway, here is google translate of the interview with our war/security analytic, about how much has Putin and his generals ****ed the Russian army in the last two months... https://brainee-hnonline-sk.translate.goog/spolocnost/svet/25239941-rusko-zmrzacilo-armadu-na-generacie-dopredu-prislo-o-elitne-sily-tvrdi-vojensky-analytik?_x_tr_sl=sk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp Saying that it is complex is probably the reason, that the people do not understand a lot about that conflict, and it is just because the Western Media completely ignore it... You cannot get a qualified opinion, when the sources are missing... In Slovakia, media do not care, because like 99% of our population, have no clue where Yemen lies, and it does not bring them any clicks, not even the fact, that our corrupt ex-government, which has been under the microscope of our media in the last 12 years, were allegedly illegally selling weapons to Saudi Arabia for use in this conflict, had sparked any interest in the media. It was just to away for the people to care... That is the same as with Uyghurs or Tibet... To far away to care to cancel Disney + or Alibaba account... And instead of trying to bring a little bit more awareness to the issue, so the people start to care little bit more, they just simply abandoned it... And I bet this is the same in most of the other countries... Chasing clicks is now for media much more important, that to bring the awareness to the masses... And the Russian trolls are taking advantage of this big time for years...

I would not call it a lot of money for free, and I bet it would not be for free, but well, I can tell you what happened in Eastern Europe after the fall of Iron Curtain, all of the ex soldiers and martial arts athletes started their own Mafia style organizations, because no one cared enough to intervene. A lot of people died, and only now are some of these **** getting jailed, when people started to care... I think it happens also in western countries, if they do not have good quality social integration programs for veterans. They might get swayed onto the easy money path, because they feel everybody ****ed them over after they risked their lives for them

The rumoured guy (Nikolai Patrushev), who should be in charge while he is "away", is as big **** as Putin himself, so that would be no win... unless the other siloviks are less afraid of him than of Putin. Also there has been opened a bag with ****loads of rumours about may 9th... - Russia will attack Moldova - security experts say - Russia will start general mobilization - different security experts say - Russia will end the war - says Orban to the Pope And I bet there are circulating even more of them... and in other news Lavrov 1uped his game and accused Israel of openly supporting nazis in Ukraine...

Something like Marshal Plan needs to be done, unless you want to have on your eastern borders besides Russia, ****loads of Ukrainian people with balls bigger than whales, without a chance to integrate back to normal society... That would be a road to another disaster. It will cost a lot, but the other option would cost even more...

And that kind of explains, why there was a great purge in Luhansk People's Republic "government" week or two ago... They probably shown to much of discontent

I am sorry if I am wrong with my English, but everything what has an engine and swims on water has a single name in my language, and that translates as a ship in English And looks like you are correct This is what has been assigned to special underwater operations during the night. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raptor-class_patrol_boat As for something completely different, On Russian social media a lot of Russians who moved to Crimea, are now preparing to leave back home, being afraid that they get trapped there, if they manage to destroy the bridge to Russia. And are afraid of possible Ukrainian retaliation, for what Putin have done to Bucha and Mariupol. Also, rumours of Lukashenko starting negotiations with Ukraine start to circulate on Russian social media, which people assume, that means, that Russia lost the war. Most of it is definitely rumour, but it shows, that it is not just bouquets of roses on the mind of Russians living close to Ukraine, and the support for Putin's war is lower day by day Also it looks like Ukraine found a hole in Russian air defense and they managed to sneak in with few planes and bombed Belgorod.