Mamoulian War

As promised before, Kazakhstan’s oil to EU will start to bypass Russia, starting in september. https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/kazakhstan-to-start-oil-sales-via-azeri-pipeline-to-bypass-russia/

I have found the source of the rumours. Mayor of Mykolaiv stated yesterday night, that russian command have moved thier posts away from west bank. So in a way it can be seen as an official statement. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/13/7363155/

There are starting to emerge rumours, that higher rank russian officers are starting to flee from the west bank of Dnieper in Kherson Oblast. No official statements on this yet, but interesting news nevertheless.

Also, today emerged rumours, that one of the most prominent collaborators in South Ukraine, Oleh Shostakh, had a very explosive day today in Melitolpol. The guy is one of the main organizers of sham referenda in the South. Let’s eagerly await now for some indeoendent sources to confirm or deny the claim. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-12-22/h_570cc7f061c21c3e18909c1487b204e7

And another example how Russia adhere to international laws, for which was Ukraine so much critisized 🤷‍♂️

More aftermath following the AI report. Co-founder of Swedish AI branch has resigned. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/10/7362634/

Belarusian MoD confirmed explosions on the airfield in a pretty vague wording. Equipment caught fire therefore it went kaboom. full statement (feel free to run it through google translate, unable to do it on my tablet now) https://t.me/modmilby/16963

I know, therefore I have put the Telegram source as well. It is telegram channel of one of the ”newspaper” in Ukraine. Feel free to put it through google translate, and of course take it with adequate grain of salt, but as I said, it is more plausible then the Arestovych numbers, as some of the OSINT guys have counted 16-17 completely destroyed aircrafts from the satellite pictures @xzar_monty High contrast satellite image, where it is possible to discern more than 7 hits.

But he might still be pretty close to reality 🤔 Edit: Also, some reports say, that approx. 60 military personel, including pilots died during the blast, with another 100 being injured. edit 2: and another report on what was destroyed. This seems to me littlw bit more plausible as the IL-76 in Arestovych report, was the only IL-76 4 hours before the hit on the airfield, and there are videos of that aircraft flying away with haste very soon after the explosions. Source from telegram: https://t.me/UAonlii/34939

That’s 22 more than reported in the morning news here. 🤔

From local radio news: According to Ukrainian military sources, 10 aircrafts have been destroyed at Crimea. The damage might be even bigger as it is impossible to assess from the satellite images, how many of the aircraft were made inoperable by smaller shrapnel damage from explosion. As the geolocated pictures shows destroyed cars 600meters away from the closest ammunition warehouse, which was destroyed, the number of such damaged aircrafts is probably in higher than lower numbers.

It might have been psyops, to get as much of Russians into a place, where Ukraine can completely control the logistics of the enemy, which is pretty much what really happened. There are 25000 Russian soldiers in Kherson, being supplied by two improvisional ferries and a single damaged bridge near Nova Kakhovka dam. Every other way into the region was destroyed by UA army. I might be mistaken, but I cannot see a single possitive outcome for Russian soldiers out of this situation in the long term. The situation will be a stalemate for a long time, but in last two weeks, Ukraine have liberated more land, than they have lost, especially around Izyum, and in Kherson, despite all Russians running there. Also, there are slowly emerging reports, that because of Russians employing new soldiers with very low training, and Wagner are recruiting criminals, that the resistance in occupied Ukraine is raising even among the Ukrainians, which were more favourable towards Russia. All of that is happening, because these new “recruits” are acting pretty much as complete utter garbage and ****… but yes, conflict will be long, with Ukraine hitting away all of the Russian military infrastruction, even in the territories, which Russia will referendum away, like what happened now in Crimea. 40 SU-25 is probably year and half of presanction Russian production in aviation industry, lost overnight. With sanctions in place, it will take Russia in some sectors twice or thrice as long to replace lost equipment than before the war. The only thing which is immune to sanctions is pretty much artillery, and as everyone can see, after the HIMARS spree, the artillery strikes dropped tenfold compared to the times around Sieverodonetsk/Lysychansk siege. Will the Ukraine win this war? I do not know, but if the West stays behind them and will supply them through the winter, they will have a slight advantage in the war of attrition against Russia, due tomthe fact, that Russia does not have industry fit enough to sustain all the damage at the pace the Ukraine is destroying their army. It is clear that the current strategy is, that Russia wants to take as much of land as possible by sham referendums, and blackmail the west to peace out. That’s why they turned off the oil flowing to their only ally in EU yesterday, as they hope Orban will break first and starts to sabotage the EU working together.

The thing is, which you also need to take into account is, that most of the war in Soviet Union has happened in Ukraine, and nowadays, most of the fighting on the side of Russia are done by ethnic non-russians, which was not the case during WWII. So if we look back at WWII lessons, that Ukraine has an advantage in this regard as well. 🤷‍♂️

Last post for tonight, but I have found one tweet very deep in the rumour department, but what the heck 😁 Even the Neptune missiles were considered rumours before Moskva was reassigned to submarine division. 🤷‍♂️

Back to the Crimea airport kaboom. Russian MoD has stated, that no aviation was destroyed. In Ukraine though, the rumours say, that close to 40 aircrafts were destroyed, as 4 hours before the attack, satellite picture was taken, where you can count 45 aircrafts. (Picture in the Twitter thread). I am really curious how is the real damage, as destruction of 40 out of 45 targets is IMHO news from to good to be true department… EDIT: The image in the thread is just a part of the airport. I have found out the image of whole Airport 4 hours before the strike though… Some aviation enthusiast here, who can estimate, how much would that be in USD?

Hmm Russian MoD has distanced itself from the report about General Vasilyev, and says, it was fake 🤔 again sorry for the white outline, but I am unable to do anything with it on my iPad 😫 Western and Ukrainian outlets circulated a report, likely false, of a Russian general allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), if Russia could not hold the plant. Multiple news outlets shared a screenshot from the Russian social networking site Vkontakte that claimed to cite the Russian head of the Zaporizhia occupation garrison, Major General Valery Vasilev, stating that Russia had mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the plant would be “either Russian land or a scorched desert.” The screenshot appeared to be a news report posted in a Vkontakte group run by Russian outlet Lenta Novosti Zaporizhia. The outlet itself claimed that the screenshot was from a faked group and denied writing the report. The Russian Ministry of Defense condemned the report and screenshot as a “fake” and claimed that Vasilev was in Uzbekistan at the time he was purported to have made the statement to forces at Zaporizhzhia. Regardless of the origin (or existence) of the original post, the reporting is unreliable. It is indirect and does not claim to cite an official statement or a statement made on any official Russian news or government website.

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Well, if we take into the account a device made in Ukraine, then the most plausible option would be a big box of Ukrainian Vodka set at the right spot. The drunk Russian Soldiers then took care of the rest 🤣 Edit: on more serious note, some theorycrafting after this message already appeared which are pointing to Neptune being the culprit.

One more video of Kaboom, and it is ****ing HUUUUGE… And this is the official version by Russian MoD. https://t.me/bbbreaking/132365 Russian ministry of defence says explosions of several aerial bombs as result of accident caused the fire and further explosions at airbase in Novofedorivka. No damage to aircraft It’s either one of the rare occassioń that Russia does not lie, or they just do not want to admit, that their S400s all accross Crimea sucks walrus balls… I leave up to you, version you’ll consider to be more plausible 🤷‍♂️

Yup, it was definitelly mistranslation. The article in Ukrainian Language is talking about “енергоблоків”, wich means indeed when translated literally into english “Energy Blocks”. The same article written in English is talking about “reactors”.

I think, that was mistranslation in that tweet. The article in Ukrainian Pravda is talking about mined reactors. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/8/7362321/

Speaking little bit about humanitarian laws, here is an example of Russian take on it, By General Major Vasilyev from their Outpost in Zaporozhia Nuclear Power Plant.: "This will either be Russian land, or scorched earth," he said. He also told his soldiers that no matter how difficult orders they could receive, they had to execute them "with honour," calling them "liberators." And another report about how the AI was doing it research in Ukraine's occupied territories and filtration camps:

The director of the Ukrainian Amnesty resigned in protest against this report. At the same time, she accuses the management of publishing incomplete evidence, and that they excluded her colleagues from the investigation.

Looks like the perpetrators of Bucha atrocities have found their judgment…