Mamoulian War
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Everything posted by Mamoulian War
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@Darkpriest and all other, worried about EU situation in winter. I offer you a "little" counter to the ZeroHedge arguments, about how bad the winter will be. The hard data suggests, that the winter gas issue for the EU was already solved on August 31. And even in the case, that EU will not try to save the gas usage at all and Russia will completely stop all gas exports to EU 🤷♂️ It will cost a lot, but the funny interesting thing, that I did not knew is, that current gas price in EU is only 40% higher than in September 2021, and that we are 20% lower today from the maximum price in mid-August 🤷♂️ https://www.facebook.com/databezpatosu The google translate: "HORROR, SCARY, DISASTER, PANIC, ANXIETY, CRISIS (written by Ivan Bošňák) ❗️We had it here for the last 2 years and it was called a pandemic. Absolutely negative connotations everywhere (except Sweden). Politicians took the helm and "saved" us. ❗️ Then came the economic crisis, predictions of the unemployed, declines, recessions and bankruptcies everywhere. Politicians printed incredible amounts of money on the machines at the ECB and were very surprised when inflation soared in a way that only their parents can remember. ❗️Now we have Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the lack of energy and the madness continues, while few see the solutions and almost no one reads the data. 🙏 We will try to bring some peace into your homes. We offer 2 links to read excellent analytical articles and charts: https://www.icis.com/explore/ and https://www.bruegel.org/ No, the war in Ukraine is not to blame for high energy prices. Russia has been playing with the price of gas for 3 years, if not 12, and thus a year ago the price of gas was only 40% lower. And it wasn't a war. The fluctuating gas supplies from Russia and its unreliability have mainly been dealt with by the EU over the past 12 months: 1) From dominance of 35%, Russia got to 10% share of gas imports to the EU 2) In Germany, the Gazprom reservoir with a capacity of 8 billion m3 was nationalized, and instead of being "empty" last winter, there are now 5 billion m3 and in the near future it will be full to 8 billion m3 3) There are already almost 90 billion m3 in reservoirs in the EU (and we have been hearing this for 6 months about continuous problems with gas from Russia). Very likely, thanks to the warm weather, the EU will reach close to 100 billion m3 within 4-5 weeks, and maybe even fill up to a maximum of 106 billion m3 in October. The EU has set a goal of filling the reservoirs to 80% by November 1. Without fanfare, this goal was met on August 31. Germany later set a 95% target for November 1st and that would push all of Europe to 84% by November 1st. We will be there this weekend and not on November 1st. It is a super success despite the lousy Russian gas supplies. You can find detailed data on the current situation of storage capacity on our website: https://databezpatosu.sk/category/zemny-plyn/ Today, Slovakia is 80% full and we are the leader in Europe, we have high stocks (status), but relatively low supplies (inflow). WHY IS NOBODY REPORTING SUCCESS? Politicians love when they can save people and spend their money on it in good faith and regulate everything possible that they would not be allowed to do in normal stable times. Just look at the nonsense about the nationalization of SE in our country. They don't understand data, they don't understand trends, but they embark on adventures that inevitably end badly. WHERE IS THE PRICE OF GAS TODAY🔥 Of course, the price of gas is crazy. These are spot prices, but also future deliveries in the short future. We are 40% higher than last September, and in mid-August this year we were 11-15 times higher than before Covid. But NO ONE told us and you that we are 20% lower TODAY from the maximum price in mid-August and the price is literally flying down, also due to the falling price of oil. Today Brent was at USD 78, which is a decrease of 35% compared to the maximum in June at USD 120. Let's keep our fingers crossed. WINTER FORECAST ❄️ Large analytical houses can predict, based on averages from previous years, what awaits us from October to April: - in 2 quarters we will need 300 billion m3 of gas if we do not save. The savings targets in the EU are 10% to 15%. - the EU can produce or deliver a total of 1 billion m3 of gas from Norway and Algeria per day via LNG. That is 180-200 billion in 2 quarters. - If we add 100 billion in reservoirs to the supply of 200 billion, we get exactly 300 billion in consumption. Yes: with no savings, no increase in deliveries, zero deliveries from Russia and an average winter, it still comes out to ZERO - ZERO. On April 1, we will have approximately 1 billion deliveries per day, but if it's cold, then a little more demand, but if it's already warm, then a little less consumption. And that's assuming: - nothing is saved - nothing will flow from Russia from today - nothing will be increased in deliveries compared to contracts - the winter will be quite decently cold Every single day, already in "warm" September, we "cut" a meter of the winter period (maximum 8 months: September-April). And as you can see, we still have a joker in the EU and it's warm, and Black Peter is owned by Russia and Putin. It is also true that Russia supplies to the EU via Turkstream and Transgas, and it certainly won't shut down at least Hungary, about 60-80 million. m3 per day. That is 1 billion m3 per month and 10 billion by the end of May 2023, which the above calculations did not include. CONCLUSION: It would be useful to track the weekly data: - filling reservoirs to the 106 billion maximum - balance: supplies - consumption in Europe, where there is now a surplus of about 2-3 billion per week and it's storage tanks - when the weather will turn and we will start cleaning the surplus of 2-3 billion per week in households and in institutions - the price of gas, which can follow oil "DOWN". A drop in price together with a decrease in the volume of deliveries from Russia would help the EU to finance consumption with lower finances and would also significantly reduce Russia's income from gas exports to Europe. With high gas supplies last year and this year and with a high price, Russia's maximum earnings were at the level of 5 billion per week just from gas to the EU. Today, with deliveries reduced to 1/4 and at a price 25% lower, the amount is 1 billion per week. It already hurts, because it was 4 billion Euros more. But that was the maximum. Anyway, we wrote down about 7 good news and 1 big risk: hard, cold, early and long winter. Today we know that it will not start in the next 14 days. And that's good news, friends. 🙏🙏🙏 If you want and know how to support the work on our reports, you can do so at: https://www.patreon.com/databezpatosu Source for chart and data: https://gas.kyos.com/gas/ Our overview of the state of reservoirs in Europe and Slovakia: https://databezpatosu.sk/2022/08/29/plyn-aktualne-statistiky-k-zasobe-kapacite-zasobnikov-a-rocnej-spotrebe/ Gas prices on world exchanges: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas"
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In the meanwhile, while Russia sent their best Spetznas and VDV to western Kherson Oblast, UA army started another offensive in Kharkhiv Oblast and in little bit more than 24 hours, they moved more than 20km deep into Russian occupied territories and removed Russian soldiers with heavy losses from 7 settlements between Balaklia and Shevchenkove, probably trying to completely cut-off Izyum from all Russian GLOCs… The push still continues, with first reports, that they moved 5 kms further to the northwest, and are approx. 10kms away from Shevchenkove. EDIT: more liberated towns in Northern Kherson Oblast officially reported today as well.
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The funny thing is, that this video made a pretty big outrage in Russia, because there are still some areas in Siberia without gas pipelines, which Putin graciously promised years ago to build, and in 2020, quietly abandoning that promise. Which means, that a lot of Siberian cities are actually living through every winter, what they see in that particular video 🤷♂️
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It is more prevalent ex-soviet puppet states. Slovakia and Bulgaria are still heavily influenced by Russian Propaganda, and a lot of FSB officers are/were working on embasies in our countries. In the western europe, I think Italy might be influenced by this propaganda more than other western countries. But for that, it would be best to read it from someone living in Italy. I have it only from newspaper, which I read.
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Yes I might overestimate it, but I am somehow more inclined to believe more people at Yale, than on zerohedge 🤷♂️ https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738 On the other hand, you might overestimate the friendship between them and their trade partners and their willingness to risk secondary sanctions, in the longterm 🤷♂️
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I think Pravda was in every “socialistic/communistic” country, and in some it is still up until now. In Slovakia we have Pravda as well, and it is the only leftist newspaper left. Thankfully, it does pretty good job as a journalistic medium, and sometimes it is good to read it, if you are right wing, but do not want to end up in a closed echo chamber.
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And looks like Ukraine just “cancelled” the “referendum” in Zaporizhia oblast, together with a bunch of FSB officers 👌 original source: https://t.me/info_zp/14972 Google translate: “In Kamianets-Dniprovska, the storage of pseudo-referendum ballots and the FSB base were destroyed Fighters of the Special Forces of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine conducted a special operation in the temporarily occupied Kamianets-Dniprovska The place where the ballots were stored for the pseudo-referendum was destroyed. At the same time, the warehouse was blown up by an explosion from inside the premises. All existing printed materials have been destroyed. Along with this, the base of the unit of the Russian FSB, which guarded the warehouse of ballots, was destroyed. The exact number of killed and wounded is being clarified. The surviving and wounded Rashists are urgently evacuated in the direction of the occupied Crimea. This is what the jewelry work of the Ukrainian military means That is why the occupiers announced a curfew in the city😎” EDIT: it’s already in Pravda as well: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/5/7366157/
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I think, something has already awakened in Germany. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/04/germany-olaf-scholz-announces-package-help-ease-high-energy-prices This might be a sign, that they rather counter the high prices and eat it up, than trying to find a solution with unreliable Russia, which knows only how to blackmail…
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Of course, it might still be psyop by UA, but the fact, that the Russia has lost Vysokopyllia, suggests that they might really started to have issues with supplying their troops. Vysokopyllia means “High Fields”. The town is build on elevation, and the Russian stronghold there was one of the strongest in Kherson Oblast. It would be almost impossible to siege under “normal” circumstances.
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@Sarex As far as I know, UA men from SK were not forced to go back, but a lot of them went back voluntarily. It is also true, that at some point, the men were forbidden to leave the country. We have a 17 years old kid at home from Kyiv, and his father even though he is at home, he was not yet called to armed service. So I think, there are still a lot of volunteers available with good enough training to get the priority.
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Vysokopillia in Norther Kherson Oblast has been liberated. Russian VDV troops which were stationed there did not get artillery support, which they requested for few hours, so they decided to retreat (from RU sources). It is rumoured, the artillery men were drunken, lol… EDIT: it has been officially confirmed by UA side as well. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/4/7366056/
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Redeeming article on the German military help to Ukraine (including the full list). The people at Oryx, who run the site for confirmed losses on both sides, are estimating it as the third biggest material help, right after the US and the UK. 😲 https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/09/fact-sheet-on-german-military-aid-to.html
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Sure sure. It took 4 months to get Luhansk and 7 month to get Pisky, one of the suburbs of Donetsk City, but UA offensive is 100% and definitelly finished off 2 days after it began. Yeah yeah, seems like another wishful thinking and wet dreams for all the vatniks and generals to afraid to tell the truth to Volodya 😄
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