Mamoulian War

There are emerging rumours, that this captured Russian officer is actually not Lieutenant Colonel, but Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi, which commands half of the forces, deployed in Ukraine. If this is true, it would be a big chunk of the reason, why the Russian defense collapsed so quickly and then performed chaotic retreat, because, there is no one to command the troops right now. Also if UA liberators raided his office as well, there will be a lot of documents available about past and future actions of RU army, which could be tremendous help to the war-crime investigations. So fingers crossed, that this is more than another tabloid rumour Ukrainian command has commented on these rumours with “We are looking into it.” statement. So for now, only speculative news are available. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11196837/Russian-general-likely-captured-Ukraine-according-local-media.html In the other news, Leader of the DPR, Pushilin, has fled the Ukraine as well.

A briefing from alternate universe was intercepted today

Before going to bed, I have decided to give my PS3 Journey one more try, because I have found one guy on Journey Discord, which planned to play today. We met at the Bridge level and my Wonder trophy finally popped up. He has shown me a lot of new ways how to go through various levels and out of bounds, so we spent playing together almost for two hours, and as a reward I got my last missing trophy Companion. So my journey is 100% complete now .

I've finished the sixth playthrough of Journey on my PS3. I wanted to relax a little bit, and hoped to meet at least one companion online. Unfortunately, no one was around today, so still two more to go for the Wonder trophy. In the meanwhile, I am trying to finish my second playthrough of Atelier Meruru, I am closing to the end of the game, I am still missing 2 more developments to be able to 100% the game (excluding different endings).

Russian MoD official statement: Our army retreated from Izyum to reinforce fighting in Donbass. @ComradeYellowlooks like your posting about invincibility of any army has same results Keep going, Malcador wants to see Crimea in UA hands by the end of November!!!

Serhiy Haidai on his Telegram: ”Governor of Luhansk Oblast Serhiy Haidai with a cryptic message: "Lysychnask, a great Ukrainian city. There will be a lot of reconstruction work" “

And code brown at Russian TV

Little bit of theorycrafting. Ex US army guy. Interesting read.

There are also some more rumours regarding Luhansk Oblast. Someone even mentioned Lysychansk… WTF??? I am starting to get crazy curious and confused at the same time, what is just a PSYOPS and what is true… Also some more gains in Kherson Oblast have been rumoured…

What? That’s … hard to believe… on other side, the Deepstate maps, which are very accurate are saying, that Russian Army began global retreat… They do not say if from Kharkiv Oblast only or from other places as well… Although Doneck Airport is very close to UA Avdiivka stronghold, which holds unbreached since 2014…

Wagner telegram says, that Russians fled Lyman as well. EDIT: and another Russian telegram says, that they left Svatove as well, which does not give me any sense, as it is deep in Luhansk Oblast… unless they hope, UA army will run for it from Kupyansk to stretch them thin and attack them later.

It depends. If enough people start to feel, that their position is threatened by his actions, there is a possible treatment by lead incoming. Or if the new leaders would want to ease the sanctions as much as possible, they send him to Haague. But IMHO this will not gonna happen before the end of this winter. If ever The interesting thing is, that his gas strategy might be crumbling as well... Hard data from September 8th (The daily gas volume added to reservoirs, has increased by 25%, after Russia turned off Nordstream I): The image he is talking about can be found here: https://www.facebook.com/databezpatosu/posts/pfbid02wSPJXtAeBDwVEvq8ZamdtLMoYUBLHnzguTrnGbCGPFYdc9SLCQZkPjJRp5aC3jH1l Google translate: "GAS: yesterday the EU reservoirs were 83% full / but a paradox! The image below from Bruegel analysts shows zero deliveries of Russian gas via Nordstream I since September 1st. Russian Yamal has been at zero since May. PARADOX increase by half a billion m3 In the last 7 days (1.9.-7.9.), stocks in gas reservoirs increased by 2.5 billion m3. In the previous 7 days (24.8.-31.8.), stocks in gas reservoirs increased by ONLY 2.0 billion m3. After the shutdown of supplies from Russia via Nordstream I, the pace of gas injection into storage tanks increased, mainly from gas supplies via LNG/NORWAY/ALGERIA and from domestic EU production. Since the beginning of September, it has continued to decline: and the price of gas https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas also the price of electricity: ️ https://www.rte-france.com/en/eco2mix/market-data# The entire excellent report (update to 6.9.) is available online: https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports If you want and know how to support the work on our reports, you can do so at: https://www.patreon.com/databezpatosu Source for chart and data: https://gas.kyos.com/gas/ Our overview of the state of reservoirs in Europe and Slovakia: https://databezpatosu.sk/2022/08/29/plyn-aktualne-statistiky-k-zasobe-kapacite-zasobnikov-a-rocnej-spotrebe/

In Slovak newspaper, it was reported, that Moscow municipal officials followed the suit of the St. Petersburg, and demand Putin removed from his position.

It is unclear for me, from what I read, where there are deployed, and if they were already deployed in UA. Every source, which I’ve read is claiming, that they are undertrained. So if they would be deployed right now to Kharkiv Oblast, I think, they might have higher casualty rate, than the 1st and 2nd LPR/DPR Corpse around Bakhmut and Soledar in last 2 months. We’ll see. Anyway, UA hit tonight Russian base in Velikiy Burluk (part of GLOC between Belgorod and Kupyansk), which is on the way to Kupiansk, so they probably already reduced at least one “wing” of reinforcements on it’s way.

A reaction worth of GeromanAT on Twitter

There are reports of big columns from Belgorod going toward Kupiansk. Other than that, the usual Russian reaction was one destroyed kindergarten in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and one shelled hospital in Sumy Oblast…

A short summary of situation in Kharkiv Oblast

They’ve been subpoenaed for discrediting the Russian army already https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-putin-treason-lawmakers/32025878.html

Nah, why would they, according to Putin, they lost nothing in the Ukraine since February

Russian milbloggers already proposing to retreat from Izyum as soon as possible, and defend behind the Oskil reservoir. Looks like their advices fall on deaf ears so far. But, the longer they stay, the more PoWs will end up in UA custody. So hope their generals will do nothing for at least a dozen hours

I really wish your November “prediction” would be correct…

Wow, few minutes, after I finished to write the previous post, this jumped out on me… If this is true, Izyum Raion would be completely cut off from Russian GLOCs, with all of the soldiers inside (1st Guards Panzer Army, 2nd Guards Motorized Rifle Division, 4th Guards Tank Division, and probably more) … EDIT: Russia again at their propaganda’s best , showing a video, how they are bringing reinforcements by Mi-26 to Izyum and Kupyansk to stop UA offensive. They somehow forgot to cover the site of filming, so some guys connected the images from the broadcast and found out, that the track of “alleged reinforcements are just track of two vehicles moving from one helicopter to second one

It is rumoured, the commander of Russian 2nd Motorized Rifle Division eva uated from Izyum 2 days ago. Before the current counteroffensive, the approximate numbers of Russian military personel in close vicinity of Izyum was between 20-25 thousand. And today, it looks like, there are almost completely cut-off from GLOCs, and only one bridge is leading there (near the town of Oskil). The sitaution very similar to Kherson, with the exception, that this area has currently the least experienced Russian soldiers in whole Ukraine, and there is evidence, that they left some areas, including strategic ones, without proper defense. If I’d be one of the Russian Generals, I’ll be avoiding the proximity of windows and would remove tea from my menu in the foreseeable future… Also the UA army is according to some Russian milbloggers around 20-25kms north of Izyum, and we’ll probably see a siege of the city soon. @ComradeYellow should boast about the invincibility of the Russian army on this board more often. It seems, that as soon as he does it, UA kicks them out of bigger and bigger part of Ukraine.

This week looks to be hard for collaborators in Kharkiv.

Since the start of “covert” mobilization in St. Petersburg, the relationship between Kremlin and local municipiality spiraled a lot downwards. Putin had some not so nice words against the mayor, for “undermining” the recruitment efforts few weeks ago.