Mamoulian War

And in other economic news, France, according to it's minister of finance, is preparing for gas cut-off. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-gas-cutoff-most-likely-scenario-french-finance-minister-2022-07-10/

Which he probably might not be able to do soon, as Russian Ministry of Defense after series of serious blunders since the famous crossing of Sievierskyi Donets river, are getting more and more pissed at the military bloggers, who are reporting about the war outside of official propaganda. They are now considering them as a "threat" to Russia Sorry but, that is the same, as saying that the coverage of 9/11 was lazy propaganda, due to the fact, that the US media has shown pictures of firefighters being rescued from under the rubble of twin towers Here you have another "lazy propaganda" including video by Reuters with "real civilians" affected at the place of the impact... https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-chasiv-yar-russia-attack-civilians-killed-invasion/31937053.html Anyway, as I've mentioned before, during the night from 9th to 10th UA army with long range artillery completely destroyed command center and warehouse at Chornobaivka, and also hit the barrack of Rosgvardia in Kherson Oblast, and another command post in Nova Kakhovka (town where is the dam, which supplies whole Crimea with water). As Rosgvardia is sometimes dubbed as Putin's private army, which is responsible for maintaining order against people who are daring to protest against the "tsar", this is pretty significant blow to the Russian plans to "convert" bad Ukrainians to "law abiding" Russians... This is what has been left from the airport after hit nr. 26 (12 senior RU officers turned to cargo 200): According to Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovych, only in Nova Kakhovka, the estimated number of RU soldiers destroyed with this attack is 100, with another 200 wounded, which might be little bit overestimated, nonetheless, these all attacks in Kherson Oblasts have significantly reduced the personnel and material supply of the RU army. All of these attacks against the warehouses and command posts deep in all of occupied territories was a prelude to big Ukrainian counteroffensive to liberate the South. This was yesterday, according to Minister of Defense Reznikov, announced by Volodymyr Zelenskyi. The UA citizens living in occupied territories were then urged to evacuate from the area by Vice PM Vereshuk. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukraine-has-one-million-ready-for-fightback-to-recapture-south-3rhkrhstf https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-tells-residents-leave-occupied-south-due-counter-attack-plans-2022-07-10/ Unfortunately The Times article is behind a paywall, so if there is by a chance anyone on this board, who has subscription to The Times, who can give us some insight, of what is this article about, it would be much appreciated. Thank you.

And op-ed from Taras Kuzio - professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/a-russian-victory-in-ukraine-is-unthinkable/ "Russia’s defeat of Ukraine would lead to genocide on a scale far greater than in Yugoslavia three decades ago. Prior to the invasion, US intelligence warned the Kremlin had compiled ‘Kill Lists’ of Ukrainian elites. The Nazi’s and Stalinists excelled at decapitating a country’s ability to function by murdering their intellectual, cultural, political, and civil societal elites. Ukrainians summarily executed in Bucha with their hands tied behind their backs are a glaring reminder of the 1940 Katyn massacre of Polish officers by Stalin’s secret police." "An estimated 50,000 Ukrainians have died in Russian-occupied Mariupol and southern Ukraine where kidnappings, torture, and killings are commonplace. Putin justified his illegal invasion of Ukraine to end a mythical ‘genocide’ of Russian speakers, and yet, it his army that is murdering Russian speakers in southeastern Ukraine."

4-5 more warehouses and command posts have been blown up tonight on occupied territories, including one in Mariupol (all explosions reported by people living in these regions including pro-russian sources). And a bonus was 26th destruction of command post and military equipment around Chornobaivka airport It looks like that in Kherson Oblast, Russian army starts to feel ammunition shortages. They started to use S-300 for attack against city of Mykolaiv, and they received shipments of MT-LB APCs, which were made in 1950s. Other axes looks OK so far. The report from UA retaking Snihurivka released few days ago, was most probably not correct, as there are still battle ongoing around the city. In the last few days, after few weeks of using less precise rockets, RU fired few Iskanders again.

I bet, you are just one of the many, especially in the East In other news, three more warehouses were blown up this night, and if I count right, 3-5 warehouses made kaboom day before I really hope US would unlock the maximum range for HIMARS sooner or later, to allow Ukrainians to make some strategical adjustments to Kerch Bridge Oh and to everybody else, if you are into confirmed statistics, and how it correlates to the numbers provided to medias, I have found yesterday one very interesting analytic from Iceland. Looks like Russian casualties spiked to almost double the amount after the capture of Lysychansk... The visually confirmed losses have risen to 4.4 : 1 in 30 day average, up from 3.8 : 1 in all time average. The 7 day average is currently at 4.9 : 1

I would not be so sure about the status of Chinese army, some analysts are saying, that the worst mistakes of the west in the last decades, was overestimation of Russian army, and underestimation of Chinese army.

@Darkpriest Looks like everyone here missed one of the most interesting news in last few days. Looks like another Russian neighbour had enough of Putin's threats, and the verbal sparring in St. Peterburgh's economic forum has an interesting follow up. Kazakhstan president has approached EU with an offer to solve the current energy crisis. https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/kazakhstan-voices-readiness-to-help-ease-global-energy-crisis-2022-7-5-14/

you men the vids, where they are hitting some random trees?

Well, I would say, that the statement of the Russian economy doing good is a little bit more than overstatement. I have found a twitter account from some guy from German Institute for International and Security Affairs, who has some words on the situation. You remember the doom and gloom how the high cost of oil would destroy the west? Here is the prediction from Citigroup. (we are almost at the level of pre-war prices and it is going just downward.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/citi-warns-oil-may-collapse-to-65-by-the-year-end-on-recession-l57ro9of The funny thing is, that Russia is already selling their Ural oil for these prices, and is trending downwards further... And guess what happens to the country who is completely dependant on their fossil fuel exports? Well, just look at Venezuela, and you can see, where the Russian economy is slowly heading... It is little bit different with Gas export, but you can clearly see, how much they are losing in every other industry and export. So if the west hold tight and does everything to solve their Gas issue, Putin's Russia will be in pretty deep troubles... IMHO even such big tariffs can not substitute the losses in everything else in the longterm. And here is the effect of the invasion on Russia's heavy industry... And here is his analysis on the Russian economy as a whole published on June 30. If you decide to read it, just do not stop reading after the first paragraph, the most interesting stuff follows .

Well, my example was definitely an example from my country, which economic situation I pretty much know a lot. And believe me it is much different from the US, and how people here are living and spending their money. Some people here are rather tell kids, that they can't play, than skipping their own season... I know it was not expressed properly in my post, but I've seen already so many cases of guys, who rather took loans on new BMW, while they were still living with their kids together with their parents, than to spent it on well-being of their family or education of their kids...

Official list of all destroyed warehouses and command posts since arrival of CEZARs and HIMARSes. Yesterday I counted three more big explosions, and today UA army started to destroy the railway infrastructure in occupied territories, on which is Russian military more dependent for supply logistic, than Germany economy on Russian gas... Also, I found today a very nice and heartwarming interview with female sergeant, who had commanded their troops in Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, which shares a little bit of insights, of how it looked like on the frontline.

It is pretty much same in Slovakia as in Germany. But we have one big issue. Because of incompetent governments, we have very low number of rental housing, therefore we have very bad habit, that every couple, their dogs and hamsters, must own their own apartment/house. And that makes us on average pretty indebted country. But unless, there will be also a burst of housing bubble in the near term, I do not see average "Joe" to run out of their money, especially that now, one competent minister has been found in our country, which solved over the course of three - four weeks all shortage of gas for our industry for the next winter. So we are set, although the prices of Gas and Electricity will go up pretty steeply. But the price of car fuel is already going slowly down.

That is pretty much possible, but the credit or debt for non-rational people starts to bite them in the ass maybe in a year or two I've already lived through periods, where I quit my coding job, to being voluntarily unemployed for half year, just to get rid of my burnout, with my income dropping to 15-20%, of what I have used to get. I managed to overcome it, without need of any loan, because I adjusted my lifestyle to the current situation... And it was in middle of my twenties... So, I am sorry, but I do not have a sympathy for people, living on a high horse, when they are not able to afford it in current circumstances

We'll see. The end of the article already states that Germany is upping their efforts to get gas from somewhere else. Also, Slovakia is full of people on social media, who are crying and spelling doom and gloom about how is everything expensive and that the state should care for Slovakia first and forget about Ukraine, but as soon as holidays started, half of the country already left to superexpensive Croatia. The car business (both new and used) is growing day by day, despite gas and diesel prices being double of what it was year and half ago... Not willing to start using trains/buses/bikes, parking lots before supermarkets are as full as before war happened... So it pretty much seems like, that it is still not enough expensive here for people to start rallying to stop supporting Ukraine. Well of course with the exception of few people, for whom would be more appropriate stay in a mental hospital, than in any public places, who still yell, that UA soldiers are killing their own civilians and blowing up their own cities, and Russia is there to save them... That being said, we are one of the biggest ****holes of EU according to our income, so I really have my doubt, if people here do not care about higher prices, that it would move an average German or Briton

Well I still think a lot of people in the west (hopefully a lot of politician in charge) can see, that doing nothing would cost the EU much more in the end, than spent few years in recession. And yes NS2 might be opened soon, and I would not object at all to open it. Of course only if some guys would finally fins enough balls to offer some lead treatment to Vladimir... The other thing is, that EU is already in heavy talks with African countries like Senegal, DPR Congo (probably even more), about improving their LNG/gas drilling infrastructure. Which if done correctly and in at least half the amount, which are we now importing from Russia, would be much more benefiting to EU. If for nothing, than at least for it being less of an security issue to us.

ehm, when did post last time anything about censorship? One would assume, if I put some emoticons at the end of my statements, that people in here would assume, that I am trying to poke a fun at something I think, I have clearly expressed myself on this board, as one of "dem woke libtards" already, but I still think people should be allowed to have fun with about anything... Even in the Ukraine thread, when people are joking, there is less "outrage" generated, than when making fun out of some stuff, which I consider over the top, even if it is done by group of people, which have similar political view than I do...

As the number of Ammunition Depots and Command Centers of Russian army is growing thinner, someone made a thread of pretty much confirmed kabooms deep in occupied territories.

Well. The very big losses ratio is approximated even by that **** Girkin. He explicitly said, that even if Russia have artillery advantage, the Russian officers are still engaging all the fights on the terms set by Ukrainian army and sending "unfortunate" Russian soldiers to die in the urban areas, which are much better in shielding UA soldiers from the most dangerous artillery strikes compared to open fields around cities. And yes, we all already know how big of a **** he is, but he is unfortunately, the only source from Russia side, who is not spewing **** all around the place... Because he want to turn the common Russian folk opinion into supporting general mobilization, and uses the truth of costly is for Russian army the incompetence of current military leadership. And the situation of the draft age men in Ukraine, from day or two ago, according to our media, is that GRU has released order to not allow people to move between military districts inside UA, without permission of local conscription centers. It looks like, this move was made without the approval of the UA leadership, as Zelenskyi has as a reaction to this released a statement, that all such orders must be consulted with him/leadership. The real causes for both of these orders can be interpreted in many ways, and would be pure speculation, although it is very easy to slip, into the Russian troll narrative, that it is definitely because of high desertion on UA side. Fact is, there is no chance to completely stop the desertion and conscription avoidance, but compared to situation in LNR and DNR, where big numbers of men are hiding for few months from hidden conscription already, it is much more in favour to Ukraine to get new conscripts, who are willing to fight. This is underscored by that fact, that Russia has passed this week new legislation about forced conscription in Crimea, which was up until now for some reason more or less excluded from most of the RU mobilization efforts...

I mean self censoring of western devs/publishers. Yes Steam and even GOG have a lot of explicit games. What I meant, is the equivalent of "Case Miranda" from ME

I am curious how much of the original will be censored to not offend Twitch in today's day and age

Oh and another interesting news from yesterday. Defense Politics Asia has reported, that UA army captured Snihurivka in Kherson Oblast. As of this morning, UA side did not confirm this, but that could be contributed to still ongoing embargo on Kherson Front reports. If this report by DPA is indeed correct, that would be very interesting news as well, probably one of the most interesting from whole battlefield in last few days maybe weeks. Snihurivka was also captured by Russians on April 3rd, and since then, they turned it into most fortified city in Kherson oblast, as it is very important logistic node for RU GLOCs inside Kherson Oblast and for possible future RU offensive against Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. This would also mean that the first line of Russian defense line on Southern Front was breach at another, this time very significant place.

Though your statement is in complete contrast over what the leaders said during the last weeks NATO talks in Madrid Also if you are used to linking some of, let me say interesting" ZH articles, allow me to make a counter with this video analysis, which is talking about how the West is going to "weaponize" recession against Russia, so if that analysis is plausible, then the most powerful Western countries have already prepared countermeasures for the economic hardship which will hit our economies in the next few months, because it will definitely ruin Russia, which is the end goal. I bet China is already celebrating to get their hand on cheap Siberia assets, and probably preparing grab for Manchuria, which they lost to Russia after the Boxer Rebellion

The interesting thing is, That I have not seen a report of Iskander missile being fired in more than a month... Anyway a little bit of info which hit me during last few days about Lysychansk situation. Both RU and UA sources claimed, that a month ago, there was 15000+ UA soldiers. Short while before retreating from Severodonetsk, Hirske and Zolote, UA units got the order for controlled retreat from area. From Zolote, they retreated swiftly and with almost no issues. Unfortunately for them, a pocket of soldiers who covered they retreat, was created in Hirske, which lead to big number of PoW, after it's capture (I have not find how big the number was). The interesting thing is, that it looks like, that UA started with retreat of heavy machinery, which is pretty well documented by both UA and RU sources. There were some casualties of the machinery. UA sources says that it was not very significant, RU sources says that more than 700 pieces of heavy machinerey were captured or destroyed. The thing is, not a single photo of caputred or destroyed machines have been released so far to back up these RU claims, which I find it strange, because as soon as first soldier arrived in center of Lysychansk, there was constant flood of photos released. Therefore, my conslusion is, that the UA reports are more plausible. So after a month of controlled retreat from the last places of Luhansk Oblast, the city of Lysychansk has fallen, with sources from UA claiming, that around 500 soldiers were unable to escape, and RU claiming that more than 2000 are still trapped there. Another interesting thing is, that after the fall of Lysychansk, there are now almost no PoW reported by RU sources. It is statistically impossible to have almost no PoWs from the pool of 2000 soldiers trapped, therefore I am again more inclined to believe to reports from UA side. So my conclusion from the whole Luhansk cauldron is, that despite the Russia celebrating the victory in whole Luhansk Oblast already, it came at an ridiculous cost on their side, while UA was able to retreat at least 10000 soldiers alive (even the number around 12000 is still pretty plausible) out of the cauldron with almost intact heavy machinery... That is indeed a prime example of Pyrrhic victory for Russia, as there are educated guesses that RU had in this fight approx 5 times as much casualties than UA. My guess pulled out of my ass according to info, which I got from various sources is that UA could have approx 2k casualties, which would mean minimum of 10k casualties on RU side (during last month of this siege, the number of confirmed RU losses in senior officer ranks has increased by around 200, possibly even more). The other interesting thing is, that UA is now in the east using pretty much the same tactic, as RU used to defeat Napoleon. Exhaust as much of enemy forces in fortified strongholds, then run away safely and repeat. Also speaking of RU "victory in Luhansk, UA aremy still holds ground in Bilohorivka, the infamous village, where the UA army destroyed whole RU BTG, during river crossing, and yesterday, 4 more RU army ammunition warehouses have been blown up deep in the occupied LNR/DNR territory

Then Zelenskyi is in luck, because 800 US companies are prepared to manufacture for Ukraine.

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