Mamoulian War

Another brilliant trolling by Ukrainian MoD in the Meanwhile Zelenskyi has cancelled autumn consription. They have enough volunteers for training and ongoing operations.

Well they are trying to blackmail new Italian government already? What a surprise. It’s good that before Draghi stepped down, thatbhe visited Algeria and signed big deal with them

Hmm, it looks like the Lyman situation is pretty much solved. It looks like, that AFU left intentionaly road to Zarichne free yesterday night, to pick on fleeing Russians, to save their own soldiers lives. And later closed it today. There are some videos not suitable for this board, which makes this claim pretty plausible. Now the AFU is cleaning the city from the remaining Russians, which did not run away last night.

Anyway, one of the units, inside the city is BARS-16, which were few days ago voiceing serious dissatisfaction with the exchange of Azovstal PoWs, and have released the statement, that they will be taking no PoWs from Azov Batalion. That didn’t age very well, but these peope are definitely brainwashed by propaganda so much, that I would not be surprised to see them fight to the last man. I hope, this will not be the case, and they surrender, so UA can exchange them later, in ideal circustances for the rest of Azovstal guys.

First one was Mariupoľ, though. EDIT: UA soldiers entered the outskirts of Lyman already.

Serhii Haidai says, about 5k soldiers are currently surrounded in Lyman. Other sources are talking between 1500-5000 soldiers there. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/1/7369934/

As far as I understand it, it is banned only to use it against civilian targets. Someone will probably correct me, if I am wrong.

Looks like the ban on usage of HIMARS outside Ukraine applies to all countries in the end. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2022/09/30/7147819/ Also she speaks why some of the western weapons/vehicles cannot be given to Ukraine, yet. Including 300km rockets.

We’ll probably see in few days/weeks. I do not believe, that they would use them against the Russian positions in cities. They are not Russians, so they would probably cherry-pick a lot the targets for these rockets. Maybe they will shoot into Belarus bases, as the UA has threatened Lukashenko with “serious consequences” if he allows Russia to attack Ukraine from his territory again. And no one required UA to promise to never attack BLR with them…

Oh, and UA received new M30A1 rockets for HIMARS and M270, to deal with Russian mobilization.

Biden just announced more sanctions on Russia, and Zelenskyi is ready to negotiate with Russia, but with new Russian president, as the current one knows no honesty, nor dignity. Quote from Zelenskyy: "Ukraine was and remains a leader in negotiation efforts. It is our state that has always offered to negotiate with Russia on coexistence on equal, honest, dignified and fair terms. It is obvious that with the current Russian president, this is impossible. He has no idea what dignity and honesty are. Therefore, we are ready for a dialogue with Russia, but with another Russian president."

We’ll get Ukrainian view on the matter very soon, including some good news from the talks with NATO. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/30/7369808/

Not gonna link the tweet, as it would probably breach the forum rules… Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en Russian army shelled civilian humanitarian column at exit of Zaporizhzhia 23 people dead, 35 wounded, incl. 4y.o. girl People gathered to go to occupied territories (for relatives/documents). There is only 1 entrance point & columns leave every morning - strike was deliberate. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/30/7369748/ Meanwhile in the US, there was prepared whitepaper for lawmakers, which deep-analyzed consequences of assigning Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism… I hope this will pass soon…

We had that Lee guy who ran in the center for a while in our guild during BC expansion

Accurate depiction of RuAF situation in Lyman and surrounding areas

There are rumours flying around, that Wagner Commander Aleksey “Terek” Nagin was eliminated near Bakhmut.

I think, at the start, it was the same issue as with the tanks, but they got first 4 and then another 4. Currently IIRC they are using 12 HIMARS units. So some kind of logistics must have been prepared before the first 4 arrived. IMHO the big factor in not giving HIMARS to UA right away was big fear, that it really escalates the conflict. But as soon as most of the western heads visited Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, they rhetorics about escalation changed. Also due to Romania having HIMARS already deployed since february 2021. There is already existing maintenance infrastructure with servicemen very close to Ukraine, and I think this also played a role in deploying it. The westenr tanks on the other hand: Bulgaria - 0 Czechia - first 14 Leopards will arrive soon as a reimbursement for Soviet tanks donayed to Ukraine this year Hungary - 44 + 12 Leopards still on order, not delivered yet Romania - 0 Slovakia - 0 (IIRC 15 will be delivered at some point as a replacement for BMPs donated to Ukraine. Poland - 180 Korean K2s ordered, 116 M1 Abrams delivered soon as a replacement for Soviet tanks donated to Ukraine, 249 Leopards already there. So only Poland has at the moment capacities to service western tanks, and only Leopards. And because they are German tanks, well, we all already know how theie current willingness there looks like. They are willing to reimburse NATO allies for donation of Soviet tanks to Ukraine, but not willing to made that last required step yet. Every other western tank model has no maintenance infrastructure in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine (unless something classified happened in the kast 7 months). EDIT: IMHO the Kharkiv Oblast liberation might have made some countries more willing to deliver some tanks to UA, than before, so I believe (my personal feeling, which I cannot back with any data) there are already some hard talks going on about these deliveries. And the current nuclear blackmail and Nordstream situation, might accelerate it further.

Igor Girkin, as much as he is a c**t, is against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. On the other hand, he is vocal, that with proper equipment and leadership, the 300k mobiks would be successful in fulfiling the wargoals of SMO. He has a lot of followers and some influence in Russia, so hopefully his statement will deescalate the nuclear tensions a little bit.

No, tanks is not much taboo, than logistic and mechanical issue. Poland was able to give Ukraine 200 tanks, because they were all Soviet Ear tanks, and Ukraine has already very big repair/mechanical/service infrastructure, to take care of them. On the other hand, giving few hundred NATO manufactured tanks would require not only training for riding it, but also training for servicing them, and in many cases, that would need thenpresence of NATO trainers in Ukraine. Few dozens HIMARS, CEZARs, Zuzanas, or PH2000 can be serviced outside of UA. Which is already done in Poland and Slovakia, and most likely Romania as well. For hundreds of tanks, IMO that would be bordering with unsustainability for logistics, unless as I’ve said, NATO people would be present in Ukraine. Which could be seen as direct involvement and escallation. I bet, that NATO is already working on solving that, but unless Russia would cross the red line tomorrow, I do not see to happen that overnight.

Very interesting interview woth the only Russian diplomat, who stepped down in protest against invasion of Ukraine, with some insights into Kremlin background. By Deutsche Welle.

An article taken from BBC - interview with Russian soldier who was in the Bucha as well, and how he left the front few months later. Currently being recalled to the front again. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/28/7369511/

Some Norwegians already demanded that NATO to say, that destroying their pipelines would be an automatic Article 5.

18 more HIMARS going to Ukraine as a response to mobilization and “referenda”.

A little bit of insight on how Gazprom handles things in Siberia in the last few years