Mamoulian War

Yes mobilization takes months, but nothing will prevent Putin to announce it, as a part of the "glorious fight against the nazis in Europe". It would be probably just for propaganda reasons. Especially if it is true, that during the last week of April, Ukraine destroyed 50% of Russian military vehicles theoretically needed to render Russian invasion incapable of further attacks. That is a statement of one of our security experts, not mine. But unfortunately, I am not able to find the link to the article atm.

From what I have heard/read from some security experts here, denying it to the latest time possible was their tactics, and they were slowly preparing for the attack around Kyiv and Donbas. But as I said above, they underestimated the possibility of the invasion through Crimea.

My education in warfare politics is as good as monty's but I allow my guess to be written here, so you can then point and laugh at me how wrong I was So I think on may 9th, Putin's Victory condition would be Annexation of Kherson Oblast, and probably Donbas as well, and as soon as these areas will be the Russian land now, he will be scarmongering even more with their nuclear doctrine, trying to bully countries into stopping the military help to Ukraine. And grand mobilization might be the part of this strategy as well. The biggest strategic mistake of Ukraine, was not having any military presence at the "border" with Crimea, which is natural bottleneck. Few missiles and artillery shells that way would probably save a lot of southern Ukraine from occupation

Support in the Eastern Europe for EU is really strong, because we see EU as a collective of countries who helped us with raising our living standards and have taken us away from the old USSR sphere. If Slovakia would not be part of EU, we would be now politically and wealthiness probably on par with Ukraine, Moldova or Belarus... And all people who have more than basic education, knows that. So pre-war even a lot of people who were looking up to Russia very favourably, still wanted to be part of the EU. Support for Putin here was above 60% pre-war, now his support is down to 22%. And the support for EU and NATO have dramatically risen.

Not yet, i am waiting on the ISW report tonight. They mentioned it yesterday, but were unable to confirm it by independent sources.

Sorry, you are wrong, if they would have no issue with EU, they would not pay their hybrid armies and Trojan horses to weaken the democracy in European countries. And no it is not only exclusive to Eastern Europe and to NATO countries. There was a big scandal about Austrian Neonazis getting funded by Russia few years ago. I bet, same could be said with LePen and Salvini, if someone would bother to completely track the funding of their countries. And Brexit is another thing, where Russian trolls were to active, and after the referendum ended the way it ended, there was a big "party" in Kremlin. As I said. The issue is not the EU itself, but the democracy in EU, and the fear of the Arab Spring/Orange and Maidan Revolutions/Belarus and Kazakh uprising to destroy his unlimited power. A quote from one of the kanisatha's articles sums it pretty much. And not only for Ukraine in 2004 and 2014, but for Belarus in 2020 and Kazakhstan in 2021... "It is more likely that the primary cause of the 2011-12 "turnaround" was, in fact, fear of a democratic upsurge in Russia itself, at a time when a similar push was taking place in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. It was Putin's fear of "color revolutions" – a fear that had begun with Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" of 2004—that pushed him towards reinforcing both his authoritarianism and his opposition to the West. Secondly, and decisively, he saw that the "repolarization" he was seeking internationally earnt his country additional prestige—without provoking a reaction from America." And that is the main reason, why he is funding populists and neonazis around Europe. He hopes to help the raise of authoritarian/nationalist political parties to power, so they would start getting at each throats, and slowly undermining the existence of EU, and retake back the influence which Moscow had in Soviet Era. And this way, he would be enjoying his time until 2036, where his current Russian constitution ends his career as a "Czar" of Russia...

They might be probably still learning how to use it properly.

Sorry for multiposting, but I have just found this tweet. Please take it with grain of salt, I was not able to get any confirmation about it from sources, which I consider relevant, yet. Though it would be awesome if it is true... edit: Although Peskov has released statement, that he does not know about any Russian ship on fire, which might be considered as a relevant enough source for the sunkage of ships Also 5 more villages freed from Russian occupation in Kharkiv region.

e.g. Maxar if I have noticed it correctly, if it has some images, it releases it always with few days of delay. Same with Ukrainian General Staff.

IIRC this one was made in 2011 for cca 500 millions USD

Ukraine officialy launched counter-offensive on Kharkiv and Izyum axes yesterday. quote from ISW: "Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi stated on May 5 that Ukrainian forces are transitioning to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum, the first direct Ukrainian military statement of a shift to offensive operations.[13] Ukrainian forces likely intend to push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv city, force Russian units to redeploy from the Izyum axis, and potentially threaten Russian lines of communication. Ukrainian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the last 24 hours but repelled Russian attempts to regain lost positions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault on Stary Saltiv (approximately 40 kilometers east of Kharkiv City) on May 5, after Ukrainian forces liberated the settlement on May 2.[14] Russian forces also reconnoitered Ukrainian positions and continued to shell Ukrainian positions in the northeastern outskirts of Kharkiv City.[15] Pro-Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces blew up a bridge near the occupied settlement of Cherkaski Tishki, approximately 25 kilometers northeast of Kharkiv City, which could indicate an ongoing Ukrainian counterattack in the area targeting the bridge to interdict Russian movements.[16]"

There are a lot of indications, that NATO was always a scapegoat, and the primary issue was always EU, especially in Eastern Europe, due to politicians which are elected by democratic means are not as lightly influenced by Russian bribes as autocratic leaders (see Orban). That's why all the funding from Russia to EE is funneled to Neonazis and populists with autocratic tendencies. For a lot of people at Kremlin, the imagination of Ukraine people (which are not a nation in their eyes) having free elections, and the possibility, that their common people getting more wealthy while integrating into EU structures is the direct threat to Russian way of governing and holding their own people on the leash.

This one might be interesting news... "Lukashenka in Associated Press interview doubts that "Russian operation is going according to the plan" https://t.me/pul_1/5410

Also, back to speaking about Russia getting insane... Question to everyone... If official Russian government media mouthpieces are spreading information like this, how can you consider them not completely out of touch with reality, and how would you negotiate with these people?

Yes I agree on this. All I have said, that such a long time in separation of other people can lead to serious mental issues. Especially in conjunction to fear of getting sick of COVID. I've seen a lot of people broken from quarantine where I work, so even if we do not know his real health state, it is highly plausible, that he might have some mental issues as all the other people I've met. And if you take into the account, that there were around him this whole time only people who are afraid to say No, then this might theoretically lead to some serious mismanagement or misjudgement on his part.

Yes you are correct, there is a lot of Swamp and as I've mentioned, Russian are making best advancements around this area, but as I've said with situation around Kharkiv, it might help with disrupting at least some of the Russian opperation. And it has already happened after Ukraine seized back Staryi Saltiv. Also there are already emerging reports, that killing off general Semionov at Izyum might have sown some chaos into command line of the Russian forces at the area of Izyum. And almost all of the gains in Kharkiv area have taken place after the alleged general's demise as well. Yesterday report from ISW: Ukrainian forces continued to threaten Russian ground lines of communication to Izyum along the E40 highway, destroying a Russian supply convoy in Vesele on May 3. Answer to both of you, there are rumours about Israel willing to offer Ukraine their Iron Dome, especially now after Lavrov went full anti-semitic. I have absolutely no clue how that might be plausible, so I am just posting it here as one of the theoretical options here. Two general's deaths is being disputed now, as they allegedly shown themselves on Russian TV after the alleged hit. But knowing Russian propaganda, this might be a prerecorded footage to deny Ukrainian claims. And of course this could be also Ukrainian propaganda to boost little bit their soldier's morale... And There are also two unnamed generals, who allegedly died during bombing of command outpost in Kherson area, with pretty high number of lower ranking officers dead as well. This attack has not yet been verified by independent parties though. So the number of dead generals is currently between 8-12. Putin was not in the previous 20 years hidden without contact to other people. Since the start of COVID, he spent almost entire 2 and half years completely isolated with very few people able to contact him. Even the strongest people might get mental health problems when isolated for such a prolonged time. Also speaking about the Russian negotiations, well, their tactics since Syria is to pretend, that they want to negotiate with you, just to divert your attention to somewhere else, so they can stab you in the back at the first possible moment. But it looks like, that the West have learned hard lesson from Syria. Any negotiating efforts from Russia could not be taken seriously. Especially with all the gas and ores around Crimea and Donbas... Negotiations is just another means of waging their war. In Syria Russia offered deescalation in one of four areas of control in Syria, for the start of "negotiations" and while west was busy and happy about that one area, Russia snatched three others and obliterated them. And in the meanwhile, they were having "negotiations" with UN as well, which ended up with UN not having any significant reaction to Russian onslaught of civilians and civil infrastructure. The excerpt from one of many articles on how Russia is misusing "negotiations" to deceive the other side: "Negotiate As If There Were No War and Bomb As If There Were No Negotiations In 2015 Russia decided to take advantage of the vacuum left by Western actors and engaged in Syria on three levels simultaneously: militarily, diplomatically and politically. One of the common features of the wars in Syria and Ukraine is the Russian strategy of negotiating as if there were no war and bombing as if there were no negotiations. On all three levels, Russians have outdone their Western counterparts. Highly capable Russian diplomats have upheld political dialogue and, at the same time, kept the military option open. Both reinforced each other. Sitting at the table opens options in case they are needed. During the talks a peaceful narrative could be fed to the media, reducing international outrage and allowing a regrouping of forces." Full article: https://blogs.prio.org/2022/05/putins-blood-trail-from-syria-to-the-ukraine-western-failures-in-the-face-of-power-play-propaganda-and-de-humanization/ Note, that the same strategy was deployed during Phase 1 of Russian invasion of Ukraine, but thankfully, they failed this time to spark the international outrage against bad west trying to sabotage the peace talks...

This will be a bloodbath... TBH I think some mad Russian officer decided that they have to get the steelworks before May 9th at all costs... Azovstal was build in USSR time as an Anti-Nuclear cover... I am unable to imagine how this could end well for the Russian soldiers...

AFAIK, the Kherson region is currently at stalemate as well, the biggest gains for Russia are currently around Izyum area, but these are limited as well. And the Kharkiv counter-offensive is there to weaken the Russian advancements at this specific front. Also, the gains around Kharkiv should not be dismissed so lightly, because especially in the village of Ruska Lozova, the Russians put hell of a fight, and Ukrainians had significant loses. Also, Ukraine is as of today in possession of 80 out of 90 US provided howitzers, and 90000 out of 144000 rounds for them, which if placed at some strategically significant points, could turn the table even more to the Ukrainian side, because AFAIK, these howitzers have longer range, than Russian artillery. All of this will of course help only if they will be able to save them from Russian air bombardment. Also you are right about the Russian artillery, because Russian are still tightly defending the area NorthEast of the Kharkiv. Which could be possibly taken care of in the short/mid-term if Ukraine will be successful at encircling them from the newly acquired Stariy Saltiv area. Yup, that's why I have written, why you should take it with a grain of salt, although the whole accusation is plausible for me. Also this "wishful thinking" is kind of in line, with the leaked article from the start of the invasion, which one Russian news site (sorry but don't remember the name anymore) released by mistake, and very swiftly took down.

No direct proof, but here is a google translate of russian Konsomolskaya Pravda from March 1st, where they are talking how this might/will end up. Orban and the people around him were always very vocal about the cancellation of Treaty of Trianon, and from the experience, of how Hungary tried meddling into the affairs of they neighbours in recent past, including Slovakia (one of the most notable one is handing out Hungarian passports to people in neighbouring countries, very similar to what Russia is doing in Ukraine), I consider this information plausible, but it should still be taken with a pretty big grain of salt, because my subjective view on this matter might be a little bit skewed and not objective from personal experience of Slovak politics. https://www-kp-ru.translate.goog/daily/27371.3/4552402/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

They are slowly winning back some land lost, in last few days, though. Most notably around the Kharkiv region, where they got back a loads of land, which was occupied since February 24th. (Land north of Chuhuiv and west of Siverskyi Donec river, up to town of Staryi Saltiv - advance of almost 40km in a single day during Ukrainian counter-offensive). EDIT: And besides that, there are some incidents of spontaneous combustion all around Russia on places critical to military research and supply, which might turn the wages even a little bit more on the side of Ukraine .

Yes, I agree, it is just another powerplay of Putin to scare them, well I sometimes hope, that some of the EU countries would get the same balls as Turkey did, when Russia repeatedly after a lot of warnings have been ignored. Erdogan shot down one or few of their planes and since then Russia stopped barking on them...

yeah, let's glorify, how Russia is stable under Putin, and completely forget how he is destabilizing whole Eastern Europe with his hybrid war since 2014, with half of the neonazi and nationalist parties in these countries being on his payroll... His goal being to completely undermine EU and slowly cause it to dissolve with the use of useful idiots like Orban, who was probably promised Zakarpathia Ukraine, to stay on Putin's leash... If he would not be such a moron and waited few more years, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia would make as much mess in the EU as UK did since start of Brexit rally... Before the War, Putin's approval here was over 60% (mostly due to well executed hybrid war)... nowadays, it is around 20%...

To play a massive cynic, well, a civil war in a country with 6000 nukes would solve a lot, if no one decided to intervene...

I am being sick from playing the race card at every single opportunity... Yes in all of Europe there are lots of racist, but not everything is turning around them... Most of the time, the true reason, why is something happening is somewhere completely else... In case we would be speaking about Syria, there would be much more reason for the race card, because the Slovakia media completely failed about it, and the neonazis have stolen the narrative... And guess, who is paying Slovak neonazi parties? Russia... There are a lot of lawsuits now against them, because our secret service finally found some evidence about direct involvement of Russian embassy with neonazi disinformation in Slovakia... TLDR; behind every **** happening in Eastern Europe, you'll find a Russian ****...

Probably yes. But you never know... Still to much trouble for Russia could cause them much more than losing Crimea... If some people will consider them weak, it could bring havoc to whole Russia...