Boeroer

Eitr is a really stark example. They not only can't finish their game but also don't communicate.

If you think the game is short then I assume you mainly did the main quest (which is indeed very short) and not many side content (which is plenty)? The 3 DLCs are mostly very good (if you liked the main game in the first place). Seeker, Slayer, Survivor is mostly a battle arena with heavy focus on tricky encounters (if you like that it's great, if you don't particularly like the fights in Deadfire then not). The other two I found to be very interesting and intriguing.

I don't object that there is a word-of-mouth effect. I am just challenging your statement that this is the main reason for massive sales drops. See user (not even critics) reviews. You didn't address my main counterargument: when the plot got "trashed" so hard and was putting people off from buying the game - why are the user reviews on Steam and everywhere else still so good? On Steam they are at 84% - and while they are not as good on metacritic they are still at 7.8 - which is more than for Kingmaker which sold better. PoE had 8.3. This is better than Deadfire's user score on metacritic - but is it enough to explain 600K less sold copies? And can it be explained by the alleged poor plot alone? I don't think so. Your argumentation so far was a bit self defeating so I have no reason to believe otherwise. If you think you can confute my argument then please do so. In this matter my opinion is not set in stone. Besides that: It's not our job nor our intention to lead discussions in a way that you like them. What is up to for debate or not is not yours to decide. If you don't want to debate your theories I would suggest that you don't post them in a forum which main purpose (and title) is discussion.

I didn't read a lot about that, but it did came up. Still my argument is: when so many players found the plot bad enough that it could explain a massive sales drop then why are the average user reviews still so good? I presume sometimes we think our personal gripes and disappointments must be common because they seem so obvious to us - but it seems (looking at several data points) in this case they are not.

Then the plot wasn't a reason for you to not buy it since you only learned about that after your purchase (correct me if I'm wrong). It then may be a reason for you to not buy a PoE3 in the future, but it doesn't explain why Deadfire didn't sell well.

@Selky: Did you buy it nevertheless?

Sounds right.

Aaand I learned an awesome new word today. Thanks for this!

If you call a reasonably presented argument bonkers you are indirectly calling that person who made it bonkers. It's bad style and totally unneccessary since nobody attacked you or your arguments in the same way. As you can see with most other folks participating in this discussion it's perfectly doable to have a controversial discussion while stying decent. Besides that, none of the points you attacked were outlandish to begin with. That might be your perception because you seem to have become obsessed by the Avellone theory. I made some points why I think that theory is not very convincing - or better: why this theory (Avellone leaves --> sales drop) might not be completely wrong but can't explain the massive sales drop. That's my whole point on this. Maybe several fans turned their back on Obsidian after that. But 600,000 Avellone fans boycotting Deadfire? That's a theory that I could call "bonkers" if I wished to attack you personally. Which I don't. I presented no numbers because I don't have access to any that would show the impact of Avellone leaving Obsidian or writing for other games. However, I made some observations and draw logical conclusions that oppose your theory. You didn't present any numbers either and besides that not even one solid argument or even anecdotal evidence (which isn't strong but it's better than nothing), yet you are accusing me of fabricating stuff and call other people's reflective take on this "bonkers". My analysis of the situation is that we can't know really why Deadfire sold poorly, but when I look at all the points that were made I think that unseccessfull marketing, disappointment with PoE, isometric RTwP CRPG saturation, alleged pirate setting and change of crowdfunding platform and narrowing down on the target audiance instead of trying to widen it are the main reasons. Yet I can't be sure - like you can't be sure. Therefore I choose to not to crusade for a certain reason. I only challange theories that I think are weaker than others. Since we can't know for sure (I mean not even the developers with telemetry and other tools do know) it's just for the sake of the discussion itself - so better keep it decent I'd say.

I figure it actually doesn't matter so much that the game itself isn't really a pirate game. What matters more is the impression potential players get when looking at trailers, scavenger hunt, ads, interviews, artwork prior to release. And if you only mention tropical biome + sloops + pirates then the ship has already sailed. This obviously can only be a part of the explanation though. But I think it's a reasonable one. Like the "it's not BG3" and the "IE-style game with RTwP saturation" as well as the "PoE did disappoint players who didn't care for Deadfire" explanations. And also marketing.

@Skarpen: it would be very nice if you didn't add "bonkers" to points and comparisons you make. We neither belittle your arguments nor you as a person and you don't need to belittle us and our arguments to make a point. If your reasoning is solid it will get acknowledged. Calling people names will just lead to the opposite. The points that were made by the others are not bonkers in any ways but brought forth in a decent manner. Maybe they are wrong, maybe not. But bonkers? Hardly... Not everything or everyone one doesn't agree with is bonkers. Concerning advertising games with Josh Sawyer: I don't have any numbers but I guess there are at least as many gamers that would call Sawyer a game developer "legend" as there are Avellone fans. And I also think there's a significant overlap. Josh may have lost some followers because he's quite outspoken when it comes to his political views though. But anyways: several things alleviate your argument that Avellone's departure caused a significant sales drop - or that the participation of Avellone automatically means that sales will go up tremendously: Preorders of Deadfire were higher than those of PoE. User reviews were great in general. If there would have been massive disappointment about Avellone leaving it would have had an impact on user reviews. I read a lot of the negative reviews on Steam and I don't recall any that said something about Avellone. They might exist but I doubt there are many. Projects in which Avellone participated didn't experience a massive sales surge that comes near the sales drop of PoE-->Deadfire. In some cases the follow-up game with Avellone sold worse than the first one. Example: FTL (Avellone only participated in the free Enhanced Edition) --> Into the Breach. Obviously those are quite different games on several levels. But if the theory that Avellone's name alone has so much impact it shouldn't matter if the games are different (as long as they are comparably good). I saw nobody on Twitter or in Discord addressing Obsidian developers or Obsidian themselves with that theory. Where one might read such a theory and where it might get fostered is the RPGCodex. But that's just a fraction of potential CRPG players and its views and opinions as a collective doesn't necessarily represent those of the majority. All in all, lookig at all the known facts and numbers (good reviews both from users and critics, improved gameplay, incorporated player feedback etc.) I get the impression that deep disappointment or anger or frustration with Deadfire are not the cause. It rather seems that a lot of potential players (aka target audience) didn't really care about a PoE2. But those who cared mostly liked it.

It most likely hurt the reviews. Nearly all negative steam reviews mention the bugs.

Konstanten with Willbreaker would be my preferred setup. Fighter/Monk can reach very high deflection vs. disengagement attacks (since starting deflection is good and Fast Runner, Graceful Retreat and Tumbling do all stack with Vigorous Defense and Warrior Stance).

@ekt0: Good point about streamers and other influencers in social media and so on. But still: if the quality of Deadfire would have been the problem then that would find its way into user revies which are still (until today) at 84% at steam - and thus a lot better than those for Kingmaker for example. So, not only critics give Deadfire a good rating but most users, too. Thus I think the overall argument (poor quality hurt sales) is not valid - or better: it doesn't explain the massive sales drop. And (even more) seriously now: who doesn't know Thailand?

That was before they realized that he's a lefty.

In the past even stuff like FreeRecipesToggle and UnlockPetSlots was not gated behind iroll20s iirc. It is now.

It sold very well given that is was done by an independent developer and had lowish budget. Which made it a nice financial success I guess. But the sales weren't astronomical. The point is: if Avellone's name has any noticable impact on sales numbers (I don't know but it may be) it's still not a sufficient reason to explain Deadfire's very low sales numbers (compared to PoE). PoE wasn't advertised with "two characters written by Chris Avellone" either by the way. The reason why there aren't any "directed by your buddy Josh Sawyer" tags on games may be because Josh hates that (I presume - based on his tweets that evolve around such advertisement techniques. Recent: Death Stranding).

You mean Hearth Orlan I guess. Ciphers need to deal dmg in order to generate focus. Using a shield does indeed increase your survivability, but it also reduces your damage output. Two Ciphers are actually pretty neat since they can cast certain "Ally only" powers onto each other. A single Cipher can't profit from Cipher buffs, two can. Especially Reaping Knives, cast on each other, is very good (basically doubles your two Ciphers' focus generation). You can achieve a compromise with two hatchets: you'll get +10 deflection but still be able to dual wield weapons (which raises your dps significantly compared to weapon & shield). This is nice when you want to skill your characters for Reaping Knives (with Two Weapon Style). However, if you like the idea of weapon & shield then that's totally fine as well. Armor is important in the early game. There I'd recommend wearing the thickest one you can get (plate, brigandine). Later it doesn't matter much because DR doesn't scale as steeply as enemies' damage and your health/endurance pools do. Pick the one with the best enchantments. You can usually tell where the sweet spot is (too low: you lose too much health too quickly and have to rest too often - too high: your focus generation feels really slow). Also you will have access to Borrowed Instinct and Pain Block. Generally speed weapons are the best pick for a Cipher's focus generation (I mean weapons with the speed enchantment).

New stuff on tumblr: https://jesawyer.tumblr.com/post/189033149681/why-did-you-and-the-team-decide-on-deadfire-for https://jesawyer.tumblr.com/post/189033278221/why-blame-the-relative-failure-of-poe2-on-already https://jesawyer.tumblr.com/post/189033409996/its-a-shame-deadfire-did-worse-the-poe-1-it-had https://jesawyer.tumblr.com/post/189033619441/in-an-imaginary-world-where-an-eccentric

What I took away from Josh's post mortem talk: Ship Combat and Full VO did hurt the most.

I agree on that. Josh does, too. But we all three don't have a say in that unfortunately.

And Twitter. And Discord.

Take away the outbursts of angry Kevin Highperbowl and I can agree on some of the statements made.

It is true: it feels a bit awkward that so few of them are participating here. But as I explained earlier this used to be a very toxic place for devs to be. Another reason why I think that objecting nonsense and bad behavior is important. At the same time I think it's impossible to really factually determine why Deadfire failed. Reading this forum or not. We all have our theories and maybe every one of those does apply and it was a combination - who knows. Difficult to react to that as a company.

You seem to have problems with reading comprehension or you are making stuff up in your mind. Never did I say or even think that Deadfire is the greatest game ever created (that's obviously FTL). I also don't think that I (nor @thelee) am derailing any topic which sincerely wishes to discuss things in a decent manner. What @thelee and I (and others) are constantly trying to do is to separate strong subjective opinions from actual facts and reasonable arguments. You can see me agreeing on certain things that critical voices post here. I'm not a blind fanatic that defends every design decision that was made with Deadfire or PoE. What I don't agree on is ranting like a 5-year-old and presenting ones tastes and opinions as facts or the will of the majority (unless you have proof of that - then it's fine). If I see a totally exaggerated statement in this forums or some opinions presented as facts I feel the need to object. Because I think about new players coming in, reading all that hysterical whining, teeth gnashing and loathing crap and then getting the wrong impression. Why would people want to ruin the experience of others with their toxic views and child-rages-in-candy-shop-because-there's-no-popcorn communication? I even was one of the most harsh critics of Deadfire when its beta came out (I can necro some threads for you if you wish). I voted ship combat down so hard at release it sank all your sloops immediately. I said the pirate theme will not be for everybody and I state until today that the in-game explanations are bad. But at the same time I always try to deliver sound arguments and constructive criticism - not only mimimi and ranting. I'm trying to seperate the valid criticism from the nonsense. Not only for me, but for other readers as well. Does that always turn out perfectly well and resonable? Maybe not, I'm only orlan after all... For example the post from Zelse above contains some valid (yet exaggerated) points (like Neketaka quest running, armor system) and some nonsense (like fights not giving XP is a problem) - but since it's brought forth in such an immature manner it's hard to take it seriously - except by guys who also feel that hot burning rage inside them because Deadfire wasn't likeable for them (and we can't let Obsidian get away with this it seems). Like your post basically. You seem to get angry because we argue and discuss but I won't be convinced by your self-perceived "truth"- even if you use foul language? I mean how dare I? Boeroer's objecting me despite me saying f*ck and sh*t all the time, that evil devil! Or what's the point exactly? Present your arguments in a reasonable manner and seperate your taste and opinions from facts. It's not that hard. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't voice your taste and opinon, it only means you shouldn't present them as truth or fact. All of what you said above is silly and untrue. Everybody else's taste is obviously always sh!tty (rule of nature), I def. played Deadfie more than 55 times (you noob), I don't derail topics because I answer to posts in the most fitting manner (like - without exception, every time), I only get butthurt when I eat no fibres for a looong period of time... and I guess Obsidian doesn't even know that I exist. @thelee I'm not so sure about - since he send in his ultimate run for revision... he's on their radar now.