It depends how desperate (or eager) Lucasarts is for a guaranteed seller. If Lucasarts believes they have enough projects that will generate cash for a while, chances are it will be a while before KOTOR3 is developed. If they don't have any games lined up for the next couple of Christmas periods, then KOTOR3 will likely be slated for either 2005 or 2006.
btw, yes Christmas 2005 is coming quickly, but based on what we've seen, I wouldn't put it past Lucasarts to push for this date.