Political Twelve Monkeys

[smjjames]

 

 

Like Volo might say, sometimes evil is just evil.

 

Barring aberrant occurrences (Breivik), mass shootings seem to be a chiefly American phenomenon. Which means that either there's a greater concentration of "evil" people in the US -an absurd proposition- or there's a series of actual causes involved, which hopefully can be explained and tackled.

dunno, US is similiar to Middle east? heard there is plenty of shooting

No because there isn't some war or civil conflict going on.

 

Speaking of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has stopped short of directly declaring war on Iran by calling the missile flyover an act of war.

Edited November 6, 2017 by smjjames

[Volourn]

"No because there isn't some war or civil conflict going on."

 

Sure 'bout dat?

[smjjames]

"No because there isn't some war or civil conflict going on."

 

Sure 'bout dat?

Internally.......

[HoonDing]

If you kill your enemies, they win.

[smjjames]

Since we don't have a generic MidEast politics thread, gonna post this link on the Saudi Arabia foreign minister calling the missile incident an act of war, but stopping short of actually declaring war on Iran. Pretty serious escalation over there. http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/middleeast/saudi-foreign-minister-interview/index.html

[smjjames]

Ongoing conflicts arent the same thing as intermittent shootings, unless you want to change the definition of war to include gun crimes with many victims.

[213374U]

If ME is not your cup of tea than maybe Africa, Asia, South America? Australia HAD TO confiscate all the guns to keep peace, but they are completely separate from the rest of continents so it's easier. It seems that US is not such an phenomenon as only Europe, Australia and Antarctica have less problem with shootings. US seems to be in the middle.

I'm not sure what gun violence with clear causes in the areas you mention (civil/ethnic conflicts, drug-related violence) has to do with seemingly random and difficult to explain civilian mass shootings in non-economically depressed areas in the US.

 

Regardless, this isn't about gun violence in general, but rather the specific phenomenon of indiscriminate mass shootings. Australia did not confiscate all guns -- they bought back about 20% of all privately owned guns. Other than the Port Arthur Massacre that prompted the buyout and associated legislation, did Australia have a problem with mass shootings before?

Edited November 6, 2017 by 213374U

[smjjames]

I know they did it after a mass shooting, but not sure if it was a problem like it is here, I can wiki/google it.

 

According to wiki, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_Australia , I'd say they certainly had something of a problem,, though not quite the same frequency, doesn't say anything about daily gun crime though.

Edited November 6, 2017 by smjjames

[Zoraptor]

Saudi Arabia says that Lebanon has declared war on it. Yes, seriously, though given Saudi's wildly erratic foreign policy- King Salman has Alzheimers, but it's his son running the show and they've spent PR millikons trying to make him look vaguely sane and competent- that could result in anything from being instantly forgotten about to several billion dollars worth of military equipment being incompetently applied in a semi random manner while the rest of the world facepalms.

 

That's after kidnapping Lebanon's Prime Minister and forcing him to read an obviously Saudi written resignation statement (Saudi arabic and Lebanese arabic are pretty distinct; plus they did the exact same thing with Saleh from Yemen) which could easily be an act of war against Lebanon; and in the midst of one of their periodic bitter inter family feuds and while still in a cold war with Qatar and Turkey as well as Iran, and while fighting an embarrassingly badly run war in Yemen.

[smjjames]

Don't they have to pass through Jordan to get to Lebanon? I get they're trying to fight against the Iran affiliated Hezbollah, but what exactly are they gonna do? Bomb Lebanons parliament? Seems like they'd have to directly invade Lebanon, which they clearly think of as a vassal state.

 

And Trumps cheering them on doesn't help things either: http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/359036-trump-voices-great-confidence-in-saudi-arabia-amid-royal-purge

Edited November 7, 2017 by smjjames

[Elerond]

Saudi Arabia says that Lebanon has declared war on it. Yes, seriously, though given Saudi's wildly erratic foreign policy- King Salman has Alzheimers, but it's his son running the show and they've spent PR millikons trying to make him look vaguely sane and competent- that could result in anything from being instantly forgotten about to several billion dollars worth of military equipment being incompetently applied in a semi random manner while the rest of the world facepalms.

 

That's after kidnapping Lebanon's Prime Minister and forcing him to read an obviously Saudi written resignation statement (Saudi arabic and Lebanese arabic are pretty distinct; plus they did the exact same thing with Saleh from Yemen) which could easily be an act of war against Lebanon; and in the midst of one of their periodic bitter inter family feuds and while still in a cold war with Qatar and Turkey as well as Iran, and while fighting an embarrassingly badly run war in Yemen.

 

Saudi Arabia is middle of political cleansing and it seem that they need outside enemies to keep people distracted from domestic politics. 

[smjjames]

 

Saudi Arabia says that Lebanon has declared war on it. Yes, seriously, though given Saudi's wildly erratic foreign policy- King Salman has Alzheimers, but it's his son running the show and they've spent PR millikons trying to make him look vaguely sane and competent- that could result in anything from being instantly forgotten about to several billion dollars worth of military equipment being incompetently applied in a semi random manner while the rest of the world facepalms.

 

That's after kidnapping Lebanon's Prime Minister and forcing him to read an obviously Saudi written resignation statement (Saudi arabic and Lebanese arabic are pretty distinct; plus they did the exact same thing with Saleh from Yemen) which could easily be an act of war against Lebanon; and in the midst of one of their periodic bitter inter family feuds and while still in a cold war with Qatar and Turkey as well as Iran, and while fighting an embarrassingly badly run war in Yemen.

 

 

 

Saudi Arabia is middle of political cleansing and it seem that they need outside enemies to keep people distracted from domestic politics.

Who are they trying to distract though? Their own populace? I guess it remains to be seen whether they actually act on their war declaration.

 

Not surprising that all of the allies would turn on each other when ISIS was mainly defeated and no longer the focus. The Saudi Arabia -Iranian rivalry and proxy wars are starting to look a little like the Cold War between the US and Russia but without nukes.

[ShadySands]

An Air Force error allowed the Texas gunman to buy weapons

 

and pivoting

 

D.N.C. CHAIR PURGES DISSENTERS IN SURPRISE SHAKE-UP

Sanders loyalists and Ellison supporters were among the officials ousted amid an ongoing intra-party feud.

Edited November 7, 2017 by ShadySands

[smjjames]

Dammit Dems! Stop making the intra-party feud worse!

[Zoraptor]

Don't they have to pass through Jordan to get to Lebanon? I get they're trying to fight against the Iran affiliated Hezbollah, but what exactly are they gonna do? Bomb Lebanons parliament? Seems like they'd have to directly invade Lebanon, which they clearly think of as a vassal state.

 

Chances are they aren't going to do anything and it's pure rhetoric. Don't know whether it's meant to distract internally though, there's been some pretty dodgy goings on to distract from internationally as well- the 'ex' Lebanese Prime Minister's main Saudi business partner was purged and died (!) while being arrested, for example, which ain't a good look when you've got accusations of the resignation being forced and the PM being kidnapped. And the most prominent guy arrested is the best known liberal Saudi prince (he owns chunks of Twitter etc) which also isn't a great look for a modernist reformer.

 

If they did go ahead it would be difficult for them to do. Jordan alone isn't enough as they'd need them and Syria or Israel. Syria and Iraq would definitely refuse, Turkey would almost certainly refuse, Egypt has already refused (though a bung might change their mind), Jordan would probably have to accept but would fervently hope not to be asked, and Israel is deeply problematic- no diplomatic relations, it would look terrible to Saudi's population, and the idea of Israel allowing armed Saudi planes to fly over their country seems... fundamentally unlikely. Saudi also need US support and refueling to bomb Yemen, their direct neighbour. As such they'd probably try something like using Syria's airspace without permission. If they really want all out confrontation with Iran they might as well go for Syria as well, that also makes it a lot easier politically for Israel and the US to get involved if things escalate.

[injurai]

D.N.C. CHAIR PURGES DISSENTERS IN SURPRISE SHAKE-UP

Sanders loyalists and Ellison supporters were among the officials ousted amid an ongoing intra-party feud.

 

 

Christ... when it rains, it pours.

[smjjames]

@Zoraptor: I guess one can otherwise assume that the Saudis are having a moment. It's clear that they're in the midst of some kind of power play among the royals. I also saw mention on CNN something about rumors that the crown prince may only be in power for a few more months, I hope there isn't a succession crisis in Saudi Arabia. Also something that the US definetly wouldn't want to get sucked into.

[Zoraptor]

There are definitely a lot of people in Saudi who'd love for the crown prince to be gone. There's a lot of potential for bad outcomes whether he stays or goes, they differ mostly in the way in which they are potentially bad.

Edited November 7, 2017 by Zoraptor

[Chilloutman]

[Malcador]

Holy Spirit is an aimbot, it seems.

[Chilloutman]

seems like German police is having fun! What I read in local news have some quotations which are not in this article and those are hilarious:

 

"The police have refused these accusations, but admitted that some academics are lacking respect and discipline, some of them lacking knowledge of German, some of which have been prosecuted in the past." WTF? xD

 

https://www.thelocal.de/20171108/how-berlins-police-are-fighting-off-claims-they-have-been-infiltrated-by-mafia

[ShadySands]

The Dems had a good night but I'm afraid it may lead them to be too arrogant and complacent for the midterms. Already seeing some articles to that effect.

[Guard Dog]

A Gun Free America in Five Easy Steps

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnoFKskvSq4

[Guard Dog]

 

I'm sure the typed and unsigned note left behind will have her recanting everything! 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

The Dems had a good night but I'm afraid it may lead them to be too arrogant and complacent for the midterms. Already seeing some articles to that effect.

The Democrats will make the same mistakes they did in 2016 and push tonedeaf candidates, their success depends on how badly Trump ****s up over the next year.