5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

There's zero chance of there not being a succession plan for Khamenei especially. He's old, and not in great health.

According to the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/mar/01/us-israel-war-on-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-i-dead-latest-reports

"More details are emerging on who will lead Iran during a transition period, following Khamenei’s death.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and another official from the country’s legal council will be part of the trio overseeing the transition, according to state television which cited Mohammad Mokhber, one of Khamenei’s advisors.

Last summer during the 12-day war with Israel, Khamenei named three potential successors should he be killed. Reports earlier this month indicated that Khamenei had named four layers of succession for key government and military jobs, in an effort to ensure regime survival in the face of a US-Israeli attack."

I dunno how this is supposed to go from shooting missiles to regime change and I don't think Israel and the US do either.

There is no organized opposition in Iran and Iran's army and political structure is created to endure war, so regime change is unlikelly. I would guess it is more fear and terror that was goal so that other countries don't dare opposite US. Also it distrupts local politics both in Israel and US. Which allows unpopular moves like giving Oracle access to medicare data and allowance to use X's grok ai to use it as training data.

18 hours ago, Gorgon said:

I dunno how this is supposed to go from shooting missiles to regime change and I don't think Israel and the US do either.

16 hours ago, Elerond said:

There is no organized opposition in Iran and Iran's army and political structure is created to endure war, so regime change is unlikelly. I would guess it is more fear and terror that was goal so that other countries don't dare opposite US. Also it distrupts local politics both in Israel and US. Which allows unpopular moves like giving Oracle access to medicare data and allowance to use X's grok ai to use it as training data.

It would be hard to imagine regime change in Iran in the same way it happened in Venezuela, remove the leader and the new government falls in line and starts reversing all the authoritarian policies and the country starts on a journey of becoming a real Democracy again

Iran has never been a real Democracy and its spent the last 45 years creating a mindset that is opposed to the US and its " imperialist influence "

Anti-American sentiment is ingrained into the psyche of most of the hardliners in Iran, its all they have ever known

And anti-Israeli sentiment is even worse

There are lots of Iranians who would love to see a better relationship with the US and the West and the country to just be a normal member of the international community

But they not in power

I would assume the US and Israeli objective is if you kill the Iranian leadership and keep bombing them then the new government would be more favorable to all the demands and objectives

Its difficult to predict what will happen because we haven't seen this before with the Supreme Leader being killed

I dont think we will see the political change we are hoping for with the new leadership but you never know ?

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

There are lots of Iranians who would love to see a better relationship with the US and the West and the country to just be a normal member of the international community

But they not in power

Iran once had an elected president, Mossadeq. Secular too. He was removed by the US and the UK, because he was more concerned about Iranian interests instead of US and UK interests. He was replaced by Rezah Pahlavi, being a good puppet to control the country. Unlike Mossadeq not objecting to the US and the UK taking ownership of Irans oil reserves. A bit like Allende in Chile. Can't have those elected leaders when people vote wrong!

Reza was originally forced from power by the UK in 1941 because he was a Nazi sympatiser. Go figure, better get that guy back in power again instead of the elected one :P

5 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Iran once had an elected president, Mossadeq. Secular too. He was removed by the US and the UK, because he was more concerned about Iranian interests instead of US and UK interests. He was replaced by Rezah Pahlavi, being a good puppet to control the country. Unlike Mossadeq not objecting to the US and the UK taking ownership of Irans oil reserves. A bit like Allende in Chile. Can't have those elected leaders when people vote wrong!

Reza was originally forced from power by the UK in 1941 because he was a Nazi sympatiser. Go figure, better get that guy back in power again instead of the elected one :P

Interesting, I wasn't aware of that history of Iran

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Interesting, I wasn't aware of that history of Iran

I'm cheating a bit. My best friend during my university years was from Iran. He survived two years at the front in the war between Iran and Iraq, after which his family had saved up enough money to buy him a fake passport and ship him off to northern Europe. Awesome guy. Even better chef 🤤

He married a Danish girl, had kids, Danish beer and pork sausages was his own favourite food 😅

Shared a lot of stories too, about the clergy, the Shah, and what he knew about Iran from before those times

50 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Reza was originally forced from power by the UK in 1941 because he was a Nazi sympatiser. Go figure, better get that guy back in power again instead of the elected one :P

Not the same guy. Easy mistake to make since even the Danish royal family has a more imaginative and varied naming scheme than the Pahlavis.

Reza Pahlavi (I, long dead, generally referred to as Reza Khan/ Shah for reasons that will become obvious) got into power in a coup and got chucked out by the Soviets and British during WW2. He got succeeded by his son, Reza Pahlavi (II, died 1980?, generally referred to as Muhammed Pahlavi to distinguish him from his dad and son) when he abdicated. He was the Mossadegh coup, SAVAK death/ torture squads etc guy who managed to convince Iranians that Khomeini was a better alternative than him. His son Reza Pahlavi (III) is the current iteration currently wandering around praising Bibi and Trump for blowing up his countrymen.

23 hours ago, Gorgon said:

I dunno how this is supposed to go from shooting missiles to regime change and I don't think Israel and the US do either.

It's not.
Trump just wants a deal and Israel a state collapse.

Nobody thinks Iran is worth the effort of state-building.

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Not the same guy. Easy mistake to make since even the Danish royal family has a more imaginative and varied naming scheme than the Pahlavis.

Reza Pahlavi (I, long dead, generally referred to as Reza Khan/ Shah for reasons that will become obvious) got into power in a coup and got chucked out by the Soviets and British during WW2. He got succeeded by his son, Reza Pahlavi (II, died 1980?, generally referred to as Muhammed Pahlavi to distinguish him from his dad and son) when he abdicated. He was the Mossadegh coup, SAVAK death/ torture squads etc guy who managed to convince Iranians that Khomeini was a better alternative than him. His son Reza Pahlavi (III) is the current iteration currently wandering around praising Bibi and Trump for blowing up his countrymen.

That makes more sense. I could not get it to add up in my brain (not the policy part, but his age). Hey, what's wrong with being named Christian or Frederik????

(nevermind that the Queen was Queen Margrethe II, Margrethe I dates all the way back to the Kalmar Union)

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/02/trump-iran-war-kurds-iraq

Going to use Kurds as their proxies ?

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/03/us-strikes-destroy-irans-main-naval-assets/

The US has destroyed much of Iran's navy, this is relevant because it will limit Irans ability to close the Straits of Hormuz and launch drones and missiles

" U.S. Central Command confirmed the destruction of the Shahid Bagheri, Iran’s recently commissioned drone and helicopter carrier, during strikes on March 2. The vessel, which had only entered service with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy on February 6, 2025, represented a major investment in Iran’s naval power projection capabilities. Converted from a 240-meter container ship over two years, the 40,000-ton carrier featured a 180-meter ski-jump runway and could operate for up to a year at sea without refuelling, according to Iranian naval officials."

If the americans actually believe that they're fricking bonkers. The Houthis effectivedly closed the Bab al Mandab despite literally not having a navy nor 5% of the resources Iran has; nor even physically holding the coast near it- Hodeidah is around 200km away. And the Bab al Mandab is far less constricted than the straits of Hormuz.

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/02/trump-iran-war-kurds-iraq

Going to use Kurds as their proxies ?

Absolute lolz. The largest anti Iran faction of Kurds that is active in Iran is PJAK, a sister organisation to the YPG in Syria. The same YPG Trump stabbed in the back barely a month ago to utter silence from the same media who trumpeted their bravery at Kobani 12 years ago.

Unlikely to get the backing of the PUK either, whatever platitudes they may make. So, he'd be relying on bribing Barzani Iteration to use the same Kurds that ran away from the Iranian backed PMUs at Kirkuk in 2017 instead.

Sums up Trump's shambolic foreign policy about as well as their incoherent messaging has*. Also one of the best indications that Netanyahu got him on side by spouting bollocks about how easy it'd all be.

*I mean really, the Trump admin has been disorganised and messy before with messaging, but this has been absolute next level.

Interesting clarification from Rubio, the US military objectives are not about regime change but that would be ideal if the Iranians themselves could do that ( not sure how they could but anyway )

The US military objectives are about destroying Irans ability to launch missiles, drones and get nukes. I'm also not sure how you can achieve this, I assume by bombing every Iranian military site?

Rubio says US launched strikes against Iran because of pl...

Top diplomat says US understood its assets would be hit by Iran in retaliation for a preemptive Israeli strike, even though Jerusalem seen as unlikely to have acted without Trump's blessing

"Asked whether regime change was a goal in Iran, as US President Donald Trump has indicated in the past, Rubio said the US would love to see it happen, but it is not among the aims of the current military operation.

“Our mission and our focus is the destruction of missiles and the ability to manufacture them, as well as their naval capabilities,” Rubio said.

The remarks caused further confusion, as Trump earlier Monday listed two other aims for Operation Epic Fury: ensuring Iran cannot support proxy militia groups or obtain a nuclear weapon.

“That said, we hope that the Iranian people can overthrow this government,” Rubio said.

“Whoever runs the regime, the goal is to ensure that they don’t have missiles and drones to threaten us,” he said, seemingly adding another war aim — neutralizing the Iranian drone threat."

9 hours ago, Malcador said:

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/02/trump-iran-war-kurds-iraq

Going to use Kurds as their proxies ?

So USA can backstab them again? lol

obviously kurd militia will be send in

most likely wouldn't be enough

will turkey be eager to invade iran and die for usa

or their new proxy syria

Iraqi Kurds are under Sultan Erdogan's boot

Only KDP are pro Turkey. Or really, pro Barzani getting massive kickbacks from Erdogan's son in law for selling him oil at a discount (same son in law that was buying ISIS oil a decade ago; not just Trump who has a dodgy relation by marriage). That's 40ish% of 'the Kurds' in Iraq. PUK is about the same size, but- broadly- pro Iran. They were the ones who refused to fight the PMUs in 2017 after making an Iran brokered deal, leading to the KDP running away inside a day. Everything suggests even the KDP will not help, because they really don't want to end up fighting the pro Iranian PMUs.

The other problem ought to be obvious to anyone with any ability to think empathetically. So it wouldn't be a surprise if Trump misses it.

Soon as you start sending in ethnic militias from another country you're going to get capital letter National Resistance because it's trivial to frame that as the US trying to break up your country. Trump has already proven many of the accusations leveled at him by the Iranian government as true- Israel's poodle, negotiating in bad faith etc- and getting KDP or Azeris or Balochs or MEK to invade reinforces that. Indeed, it'd be more than enough evidence to suggest that the only thing Trump and Israel wants is to cause perpetual regional chaos.

Iran War could reopen debate on Russian Natural Gas Norway says. EU ambassador not allowed to inspect damage to Druzhba oil pipeline – FT.

Absolute lols. Countdown to NordStream repair being 'strategically essential' starts in...

Really, whatever the platitudes most European leaders are spouting they must be absolutely livid behind the scenes. Norway- which has followed the US lead on pretty much everything including a lot of military adventurism and is Europe's largest gas producer- floating the idea of buying more Russian gas rather than less is a pretty clear indicator there's no willingness to reward the US for getting Qatari gas shut off with more gas contracts*.

One thing you have to say about Trump, he has at least found a positive about that blancmange Keir Starmer: he most certainly isn't Winston Churchill.

*for extra lols, the government here announced a plan to build a LNG terminal, last week. Sums up their competency perfectly. Funded, of course, by a levy since it makes zero financial sense and no private entity in its right mind would build it. Entirely done to pander to Trump; now looks even more stupid.