5 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

There's zero chance of there not being a succession plan for Khamenei especially. He's old, and not in great health.

According to the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2026/mar/01/us-israel-war-on-iran-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-i-dead-latest-reports

"More details are emerging on who will lead Iran during a transition period, following Khamenei’s death.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and another official from the country’s legal council will be part of the trio overseeing the transition, according to state television which cited Mohammad Mokhber, one of Khamenei’s advisors.

Last summer during the 12-day war with Israel, Khamenei named three potential successors should he be killed. Reports earlier this month indicated that Khamenei had named four layers of succession for key government and military jobs, in an effort to ensure regime survival in the face of a US-Israeli attack."

I dunno how this is supposed to go from shooting missiles to regime change and I don't think Israel and the US do either.

There is no organized opposition in Iran and Iran's army and political structure is created to endure war, so regime change is unlikelly. I would guess it is more fear and terror that was goal so that other countries don't dare opposite US. Also it distrupts local politics both in Israel and US. Which allows unpopular moves like giving Oracle access to medicare data and allowance to use X's grok ai to use it as training data.

18 hours ago, Gorgon said:

I dunno how this is supposed to go from shooting missiles to regime change and I don't think Israel and the US do either.

16 hours ago, Elerond said:

There is no organized opposition in Iran and Iran's army and political structure is created to endure war, so regime change is unlikelly. I would guess it is more fear and terror that was goal so that other countries don't dare opposite US. Also it distrupts local politics both in Israel and US. Which allows unpopular moves like giving Oracle access to medicare data and allowance to use X's grok ai to use it as training data.

It would be hard to imagine regime change in Iran in the same way it happened in Venezuela, remove the leader and the new government falls in line and starts reversing all the authoritarian policies and the country starts on a journey of becoming a real Democracy again

Iran has never been a real Democracy and its spent the last 45 years creating a mindset that is opposed to the US and its " imperialist influence "

Anti-American sentiment is ingrained into the psyche of most of the hardliners in Iran, its all they have ever known

And anti-Israeli sentiment is even worse

There are lots of Iranians who would love to see a better relationship with the US and the West and the country to just be a normal member of the international community

But they not in power

I would assume the US and Israeli objective is if you kill the Iranian leadership and keep bombing them then the new government would be more favorable to all the demands and objectives

Its difficult to predict what will happen because we haven't seen this before with the Supreme Leader being killed

I dont think we will see the political change we are hoping for with the new leadership but you never know ?

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

There are lots of Iranians who would love to see a better relationship with the US and the West and the country to just be a normal member of the international community

But they not in power

Iran once had an elected president, Mossadeq. Secular too. He was removed by the US and the UK, because he was more concerned about Iranian interests instead of US and UK interests. He was replaced by Rezah Pahlavi, being a good puppet to control the country. Unlike Mossadeq not objecting to the US and the UK taking ownership of Irans oil reserves. A bit like Allende in Chile. Can't have those elected leaders when people vote wrong!

Reza was originally forced from power by the UK in 1941 because he was a Nazi sympatiser. Go figure, better get that guy back in power again instead of the elected one :P

5 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Iran once had an elected president, Mossadeq. Secular too. He was removed by the US and the UK, because he was more concerned about Iranian interests instead of US and UK interests. He was replaced by Rezah Pahlavi, being a good puppet to control the country. Unlike Mossadeq not objecting to the US and the UK taking ownership of Irans oil reserves. A bit like Allende in Chile. Can't have those elected leaders when people vote wrong!

Reza was originally forced from power by the UK in 1941 because he was a Nazi sympatiser. Go figure, better get that guy back in power again instead of the elected one :P

Interesting, I wasn't aware of that history of Iran

3 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Interesting, I wasn't aware of that history of Iran

I'm cheating a bit. My best friend during my university years was from Iran. He survived two years at the front in the war between Iran and Iraq, after which his family had saved up enough money to buy him a fake passport and ship him off to northern Europe. Awesome guy. Even better chef 🤤

He married a Danish girl, had kids, Danish beer and pork sausages was his own favourite food 😅

Shared a lot of stories too, about the clergy, the Shah, and what he knew about Iran from before those times

50 minutes ago, Gorth said:

Reza was originally forced from power by the UK in 1941 because he was a Nazi sympatiser. Go figure, better get that guy back in power again instead of the elected one :P

Not the same guy. Easy mistake to make since even the Danish royal family has a more imaginative and varied naming scheme than the Pahlavis.

Reza Pahlavi (I, long dead, generally referred to as Reza Khan/ Shah for reasons that will become obvious) got into power in a coup and got chucked out by the Soviets and British during WW2. He got succeeded by his son, Reza Pahlavi (II, died 1980?, generally referred to as Muhammed Pahlavi to distinguish him from his dad and son) when he abdicated. He was the Mossadegh coup, SAVAK death/ torture squads etc guy who managed to convince Iranians that Khomeini was a better alternative than him. His son Reza Pahlavi (III) is the current iteration currently wandering around praising Bibi and Trump for blowing up his countrymen.

23 hours ago, Gorgon said:

I dunno how this is supposed to go from shooting missiles to regime change and I don't think Israel and the US do either.

It's not.
Trump just wants a deal and Israel a state collapse.

Nobody thinks Iran is worth the effort of state-building.

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

Not the same guy. Easy mistake to make since even the Danish royal family has a more imaginative and varied naming scheme than the Pahlavis.

Reza Pahlavi (I, long dead, generally referred to as Reza Khan/ Shah for reasons that will become obvious) got into power in a coup and got chucked out by the Soviets and British during WW2. He got succeeded by his son, Reza Pahlavi (II, died 1980?, generally referred to as Muhammed Pahlavi to distinguish him from his dad and son) when he abdicated. He was the Mossadegh coup, SAVAK death/ torture squads etc guy who managed to convince Iranians that Khomeini was a better alternative than him. His son Reza Pahlavi (III) is the current iteration currently wandering around praising Bibi and Trump for blowing up his countrymen.

That makes more sense. I could not get it to add up in my brain (not the policy part, but his age). Hey, what's wrong with being named Christian or Frederik????

(nevermind that the Queen was Queen Margrethe II, Margrethe I dates all the way back to the Kalmar Union)